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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Reimagining Earth in the Earth System

Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel Transcriptional Oscillations of a Plastid Antiporter Reflect Increased Resilience of Thalassiosira pseudonana in Elevated CO 2

Acidification of the ocean due to high atmospheric CO 2 levels may increase the resilience of diatoms causing dramatic shifts in abiotic and biotic cycles with lasting implications on marine ecosystems. Here, we report a potential bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of a coastal and centric model diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana under elevated CO 2 . Specifically, we have discovered, through EGFP-tagging, a plastid membrane localized putative Na + (K + )/H + antiporter that is significantly upregulated at >800 ppm CO 2 , with a potentially important role in maintaining pH homeostasis. Notably, transcript abundance of this antiporter gene was relatively low and constant over the diel cycle under contemporary CO 2 conditions. In future acidified oceanic conditions, dramatic oscillation with >10-fold change between nighttime (high) and daytime (low) transcript abundances of the antiporter was associated with increased resilience of T. pseudonana. By analyzing metatranscriptomic data from the Tara Oceans project, we demonstrate that phylogenetically diverse diatoms express homologs of this antiporter across the globe. We propose that the differential between night- and daytime transcript levels of the antiporter could serve as a bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of diatoms in response to high CO 2 conditions in marine environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptation strategies of giant viruses to low-temperature marine ecosystems

Abstract Microbes in marine ecosystems have evolved their gene content to thrive successfully in the cold. Although this process has been reasonably well studied in bacteria and selected eukaryotes, less is known about the impact of cold environments on the genomes of viruses that infect eukaryotes. Here, we analyzed cold adaptations in giant viruses (Nucleocytoviricota and Mirusviricota) from austral marine environments and compared them with their Arctic and temperate counterparts. We recovered giant virus metagenome-assembled genomes (98 Nucleocytoviricota and 12 Mirusviricota MAGs) from 61 newly sequenced metagenomes and metaviromes from sub-Antarctic Patagonian fjords and Antarctic seawater samples. When analyzing our data set alongside Antarctic and Arctic giant viruses MAGs already deposited in the Global Ocean Eukaryotic Viral database, we found that Antarctic and Arctic giant viruses predominantly inhabit sub-10°C environments, featuring a high proportion of unique phylotypes in each ecosystem. In contrast, giant viruses in Patagonian fjords were subject to broader temperature ranges and showed a lower degree of endemicity. However, despite differences in their distribution, giant viruses inhabiting low-temperature marine ecosystems evolved genomic cold-adaptation strategies that led to changes in genetic functions and amino acid frequencies that ultimately affect both gene content and protein structure. Such changes seem to be absent in their mesophilic counterparts. The uniqueness of these cold-adapted marine giant viruses may now be threatened by climate change, leading to a potential reduction in their biodiversity.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: A Synoptic System for Capturing Ecosystem Control Points Across Terrestrial-Aquatic Interfaces

The investigation of how climate change and water level fluctuations impact variable and interconnected ecosystems, like the interfaces between terrestrial and aquatic environments, requires the collection and integration of many data types. We describe an integrative and autonomous environmental monitoring approach that uses environmental sensors and data loggers to monitor surface water, groundwater, soil, and vegetation changes and generate essential data for predictive models. We established the network at seven sites along the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie coastlines, including a large-scale flood manipulation experiment, collectively generating over three million observations per month. Such sensor networks hold great promise for tracking and comprehending environmental changes where land and water intersect. The sensor system and overall approach to sensor management that we have designed is intended to be widely accessible for research teams spanning in size from an individual investigator to large multi-institution projects. This dataset shows example data generated by the sensor network described above. Data output for data loggers connected to groundwater water quality sondes measuring dissolved oxygen, pH, oxidative redox potential (ORP), groundwater elevation, groundwater salinity and temperature, and groundwater elevation; replicate soil moisture and conductivity probes installed at 10 and 30 cm below the ground surface; rainfall and solar radiation; and mean sap flow from 8 replicate probes. Sensors are installed at upland forest (UP), wetlands (W), and transitional locations between these ecosystems (TR). Example datasets are from Goodwin Islands in the Chesapeake Bay and Portage River along the Lake Erie coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ecology of inorganic sulfur auxiliary metabolism in widespread bacteriophages

Microbial sulfur metabolism contributes to biogeochemical cycling on global scales. Sulfur metabolizing microbes are infected by phages that can encode auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) to alter sulfur metabolism within host cells but remain poorly characterized. Here we identified 191 phages derived from twelve environments that encoded 227 AMGs for oxidation of sulfur and thiosulfate ( dsrA , dsrC/tusE , soxC , soxD and soxYZ ). Evidence for retention of AMGs during niche-differentiation of diverse phage populations provided evidence that auxiliary metabolism imparts measurable fitness benefits to phages with ramifications for ecosystem biogeochemistry. Gene abundance and expression profiles of AMGs suggested significant contributions by phages to sulfur and thiosulfate oxidation in freshwater lakes and oceans, and a sensitive response to changing sulfur concentrations in hydrothermal environments. Overall, our study provides fundamental insights on the distribution, diversity, and ecology of phage auxiliary metabolism associated with sulfur and reinforces the necessity of incorporating viral contributions into biogeochemical configurations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wildfire aerosol deposition likely amplified a summertime Arctic phytoplankton bloom

Summertime wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the impact of long range transport and deposition of wildfire aerosols on biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean is unknown. Here, we use satellite-based ocean color data, atmospheric modeling and back trajectory analysis to investigate the transport and fate of aerosols emitted from Siberian wildfires in summer 2014 and their potential impact on phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Ocean. We detect large phytoplankton blooms near the North Pole (up to 82°N in the eastern Eurasian Basin). Our analysis indicates that these blooms were induced by the northward plume transport and deposition of nutrient-bearing wildfire aerosols. We estimate that these highly stratified surface waters received large amounts of wildfire-derived nitrogen, which alleviated nutrient stress in the phytoplankton community and triggered an unusually large bloom event. Our findings suggest that changes in wildfire activity may strongly influence summertime productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Activities and Long Lifetimes of Organic Carbon-Degrading Extracellular Enzymes in Deep Subsurface Sediments of the Baltic Sea

Heterotrophic microorganisms in marine sediments produce extracellular enzymes to hydrolyze organic macromolecules, so their products can be transported inside the cell and used for energy and growth. Therefore, extracellular enzymes may mediate the fate of organic carbon in sediments. The Baltic Sea Basin is a primarily depositional environment with high potential for organic matter preservation. The potential activities of multiple organic carbon-degrading enzymes were measured in samples obtained by the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 347 from the Little Belt Strait, Denmark, core M0059C. Potential maximum hydrolysis rates (V max ) were measured at depths down to 77.9mbsf for the following enzymes: alkaline phosphatase, β- d -xylosidase, β- d -cellobiohydrolase, N-acetyl-β- d -glucosaminidase, β-glucosidase, α-glucosidase, leucyl aminopeptidase, arginyl aminopeptidase, prolyl aminopeptidase, gingipain, and clostripain. Extracellular peptidase activities were detectable at depths shallower than 54.95mbsf, and alkaline phosphatase activity was detectable throughout the core, albeit against a relatively high activity in autoclaved sediments. β-glucosidase activities were detected above 30mbsf; however, activities of other glycosyl hydrolases (β-xylosidase, β-cellobiohydrolase, N-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase, and α-glucosidase) were generally indistinguishable from zero at all depths. These extracellular enzymes appear to be extremely stable: Among all enzymes, a median of 51.3% of enzyme activity was retained after autoclaving for an hour. We show that enzyme turnover times scale with the inverse of community metabolic rates, such that enzyme lifetimes in subsurface sediments, in which metabolic rates are very slow, are likely to be extraordinarily long. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests enzyme lifetimes are, at minimum, on the order of 230days, and may be substantially longer. These results lend empirical support to the hypothesis that a population of subsurface microbes persist by using extracellular enzymes to slowly metabolize old, highly degraded organic carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phage-specific metabolic reprogramming of virocells

Ocean viruses are abundant and infect 20–40% of surface microbes. Infected cells, termed virocells, are thus a predominant microbial state. Yet, virocells and their ecosystem impacts are understudied, thus precluding their incorporation into ecosystem models. Here we investigated how unrelated bacterial viruses (phages) reprogram one host into contrasting virocells with different potential ecosystem footprints. We independently infected the marine Pseudoalteromonas bacterium with siphovirus PSA-HS2 and podovirus PSA-HP1. Time-resolved multi-omics unveiled drastically different metabolic reprogramming and resource requirements by each virocell, which were related to phage–host genomic complementarity and viral fitness. Namely, HS2 was more complementary to the host in nucleotides and amino acids, and fitter during infection than HP1. Functionally, HS2 virocells hardly differed from uninfected cells, with minimal host metabolism impacts. HS2 virocells repressed energy-consuming metabolisms, including motility and translation. Contrastingly, HP1 virocells substantially differed from uninfected cells. They repressed host transcription, responded to infection continuously, and drastically reprogrammed resource acquisition, central carbon and energy metabolisms. Ecologically, this work suggests that one cell, infected versus uninfected, can have immensely different metabolisms that affect the ecosystem differently. Finally, we relate phage–host genome complementarity, virocell metabolic reprogramming, and viral fitness in a conceptual model to guide incorporating viruses into ecosystem models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis for the Port Applications [Slides]

The International Maritime Organization has committed to 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 worldwide as of 2023. This analysis includes performing an inventory and modeling efforts to understand the energy, equipment and cost requirements to support decarbonization of cargo handling and shore power at U.S. Ports, along with assessment of zero- and near- zero emission fuel supplies at or near U.S. ports focused upon Hydrogen technologies. Initial market assessment for ocean going vessels for harbor support and ocean-going vessels is explored. An energy analysis is performed on the port system using a holistic approach and considering the port as an entire ecosystem that functions as a transportation and energy node. Presently, a comprehensive view is lacking for future analysis efforts, this analysis seeks to address this gap in data by evaluating four representative port types and the potential for utilizing hydrogen for the maritime industry. Every port is different, but broadly they could be bracketed into reference cases with scaling factors for the relative size of the port operations. These reference ports are for future use, potentially as baselines for analysis and development of demonstration programs. An equipment inventory for each reference port type (container, bulk, breakbulk, and inland waterway) is presented. A comparative analysis of fuel cell electric and battery electric equipment is conducted based on the following criteria: technology readiness level, refueling/charging time, operational range, energy consumption, and fuel cost savings compared to baseline internal combustion engine equipment. The tradeoffs and synergies between two alternative powertrains is highlighted. Based on energy and infrastructure analysis, average and high equipment utilization profiles across different port types is identified and quantified baseline fuel and electricity demand for various decarbonization scenarios. Based on the portfolio of equipment converted to fuel cell electric, the estimates of initial capital investment are provided for hydrogen refueling stations across ports. An energy demand model is developed that predicts well the all-electric cargo handling equipment annual energy consumption for ports with annual tonnage under 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The model is a good rubric to follow for further energy demand models that can create a scalable solution to understand the energy needs of cargo handling equipment, whether they are all-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or powered by another fuel-type. Zero and near-zero emission fuel supply at ports is evaluated looking into the characteristics of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as an alternative fuel, as well as the bunkering status. The readiness of reference ports to produce ammonia or methanol and bunker the fuel is examined based on the framework developed by the Global Maritime Forum and Rocky Mountain Institute.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defensive symbiosis against giant viruses in amoebae

Protists are important regulators of microbial communities and key components in food webs with impact on nutrient cycling and ecosystem functioning. In turn, their activity is shaped by diverse intracellular parasites, including bacterial symbionts and viruses. Yet, bacteria–virus interactions within protists are poorly understood. Here, we studied the role of bacterial symbionts of free-living amoebae in the establishment of infections with nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (Nucleocytoviricota). To investigate these interactions in a system that would also be relevant in nature, we first isolated and characterized a giant virus (Viennavirus, family Marseilleviridae) and a sympatric potential Acanthamoeba host infected with bacterial symbionts. Subsequently, coinfection experiments were carried out, using the fresh environmental isolates as well as additional amoeba laboratory strains. Employing fluorescence in situ hybridization and qPCR, we show that the bacterial symbiont, identified as Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, represses the replication of the sympatric Viennavirus in both recent environmental isolates as well as Acanthamoeba laboratory strains. In the presence of the symbiont, virions are still taken up, but viral factory maturation is inhibited, leading to survival of the amoeba host. The symbiont also suppressed the replication of the more complex Acanthamoeba polyphaga mimivirus and Tupanvirus deep ocean (Mimiviridae). Our work provides an example of an intracellular bacterial symbiont protecting a protist host against virus infections. The impact of virus–symbiont interactions on microbial population dynamics and eventually ecosystem processes requires further attention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Powering the Blue Economy: A Survey of Station-Keeping Methods for Mooringless Platforms

The term “ocean platform” is used to reference everything from stationary, typically moored, buoys to mobile water vehicles, whether they operate on the ocean’s surface or underwater. For certain applications for which relatively stationary station-keeping conditions are desired, the use of mooring systems is not always a viable alternative either for economic, environmental, regulatory, or otherwise practical reasons, or a combination thereof, (e.g., short deployments, sensitive ecosystems, very deep project sites). Maintaining a platform at a single waypoint or reference location without being moored would require additional control systems and a power source to counteract the drift forces that would naturally displace it. Mobile platforms, which are usually untethered except for remotely operated vehicles, typically require energy input to power their station-keeping capabilities so that they hold or control their location in the ocean. Currently, most of these platforms use combustion engines or batteries for this purpose, which, depending on the specific systems, may be costly, pollute the environment, or create limitations on the length of the deployment. However, powering this kind of platforms with surrounding renewable resources (waves, currents, winds, or sun) has been identified as a promising solution to expand their application. The intent of this report is to investigate station-keeping methods for various ocean platforms that are not moored or otherwise anchored to the ocean floor, or another platform or vessel, paying particular interest to technologies that use marine renewable resources to power their operation, because that is of particular interest to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) initiative. As a first step, 72 articles and technical reports related to mooringless station-keeping methods were collected for review. The preliminary literature review provided a broad overview of common themes across the literature from which a descriptive methodology for analyzing various platforms was developed. That is, station-keeping methods were categorized based on their predominant energy source and consumption (renewable, nonrenewable, or hybrid if the platform uses renewable and nonrenewable resources equally), and their localization strategy (drift reduction, “path-planning or “waypoint-holding”). In addition, platform types were segregated into the following groups: buoys, surface drifters, and unoccupied surface vehicles (USVs); offshore renewable energy systems; and unoccupied underwater vehicles (UUVs). The main types of station-keeping methods encountered in this report achieve their intended localization strategy by means of drift mitigation, steering, and/or propulsion. Drift mitigation is commonly accomplished via drogues and sea anchors. Stand-along steering subsystems use control surfaces (e.g., ship rudder, wing sail, etc.) that react to ocean currents, waves, or winds to provide varying-degrees of course adjustments. Combined steering and propulsion subsystems include differential thrusters, directional thrusters separate from a primary thruster that cause the platform to pitch up/down or yaw clockwise/counterclockwise, or vectored thrusters that direct the propulsion in a range of directions relative to the platform’s local coordinate system. Propulsion is often achieved by running a motor and applying active control strategies but can also involve buoyancy shifts and using sails to generate lifting forces that propel a platform in a desired direction. Future research is primarily expected to take place in the form of a technoeconomic analysis that would aim to determine the technological viability, cost, and added value of mooringless station-keeping use cases identified through this research, including docking for UUV recharging or for georeferencing drifter buoys, deep-sea floating wind farms, U.S. Navy sonar arrays, and a Pacific Ocean wave buoy network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 and CH4 leaf-level fluxes and soil porewater concentrations from common vegetation patches in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands

This dataset contains leaf-level flux and soil porewater concentration measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4 ) in plots in the footprint of Ameriflux sites US-LA2 and US-LA3. Leaf fluxes in US-LA2 were measured on patches dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and co-dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and Typha latifolia. In US-LA3, fluxes were measured from distinct Juncus roemerianus and Spartina alterniflora patches. The porewater concentrations were collected across a vertical profile (~50 cm depth) at centric locations within 25 m2 plots where we measured the leaf fluxes. US-LA3 included an additional set of measurements in open water spots. We aimed to evaluate differences in leaf fluxes and porewater pools of CO2 and CH4 of representative ecohydrological patches across a salinity gradient. We also used this dataset to help develop ELM-Wet, a more realistic representation of wetland carbon biogeochemical processes within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 1 (ELM v.1). The files can be opened with regular text editors or spreadsheet programs. Version 2.0 (8/26/2025): This is the latest version of this dataset. The update includes additional samples of soil porewater CH4/CO2 concentrations from June-2021 to November-2022, as well as minor adjustments made to V1 samples via changing Henry's solubility to account for porewater salinity. Additionally leaf-level measurments of spectral indices, PSRI, NDVI, and PRI have been added to complement Leaf-level flux measurements. All V1 data sets have been integrated into V2 sheets, ensuring data from the previous version is contained with the additional samples and consistent with V2 metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 °N, 15 °N, 15 °S, and 30 °S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs. 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Larval connectivity for European green crab management in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters

The presence of invasive species is a growing concern in coastal marine ecosystems because of their adverse effects on biodiversity. The European green crab Carcinus maenas (EGC) is a small crab inhabiting inshore areas. Although it is native to the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, its distribution has expanded to North America, where it is an invasive species. Its main food sources are small invertebrate species that support valuable fisheries in the USA. The first presence of EGC in northern Washington was observed around 20 yr ago, along the Pacific Coast of the USA. Recently, EGC has been detected throughout the Salish Sea (Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada) wherein spread dynamics are unknown. The overall distribution of EGC is mainly driven by larval dispersal and, in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, the assessment of EGC population dynamics is essential to understand its migration patterns and prevent its future expansion. To investigate the dispersal patterns of EGC larvae, a larval dispersal model was developed which couples a regional model of hydrodynamic circulation with an individual-based model of ichthyoplankton dynamics. Simulations were performed over 9 yr (2013-2022) to analyze average larval transport trends in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, interannual variability of EGC larval connectivity, and the influence of larval behavior on connectivity patterns. Lastly, areas were identified to inform invasive species management moving forward. The prediction of likely sources and settlement locations of EGC larvae from the model will help improve the management of the population in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗