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133 records · Page 8

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparison of scattering ratio profiles retrieved from ALADIN/Aeolus and CALIOP/CALIPSO observations and preliminary estimates of cloud fraction profiles

The space-borne active sounders have been contributing invaluable vertically resolved information of atmospheric optical properties since the launch of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) in 2006. To build long-term records from space-borne lidars useful for climate studies, one has to understand the differences between successive space lidars operating at different wavelengths, flying on different orbits, and using different viewing geometries, receiving paths, and detectors. In this article, we compare the results of Atmospheric Laser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidars for the period from 28 June to 31 December 2019. First, we build a dataset of ALADIN–CALIOP collocated profiles (Δdist<1°; Δtime<6 h). Then we convert ALADIN's 355 nm particulate backscatter and extinction profiles into the scattering ratio vertical profiles SR(z) at 532 nm using molecular density profiles from Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, version 5 (GEOS-5 DAS). And finally, we build the CALIOP and ALADIN globally gridded cloud fraction profiles CF(z) by applying the same cloud detection threshold to the SR(z) profiles of both lidars at the same spatial resolution. Before comparing the SR(z) and CF(z) profiles retrieved from the two analyzed lidar missions, we performed a numerical experiment to estimate the best achievable cloud detection agreement CDA norm (z) considering the differences between the instruments. We define CDA norm (z) in each latitude–altitude bin as the occurrence frequency of cloud layers detected by both lidars, divided by a cloud fraction value for the same latitude–altitude bin. We simulated the SR(z) and CF(z) profiles that would be observed by these two lidars if they were flying over the same atmosphere predicted by a global model. By analyzing these simulations, we show that the theoretical limit for CDA$_{norm}^{theor}$(z) for a combination of ALADIN and CALIOP instruments is equal to 0.81±0.07 at all altitudes. In other words, 19 % of the clouds cannot be detected simultaneously by two instruments due to said differences. The analyses of the actual observed CALIOP–ALADIN collocated dataset containing ~78 000 pairs of nighttime SR(z) profiles revealed the following points: (a) the values of SR(z) agree well up to ~3 km height. (b) The CF(z) profiles show agreement below ~3 km, where ~80 % of the clouds detected by CALIOP are detected by ALADIN as expected from the numerical experiment. (c) Above this height, the CDA$_{norm}^{obs}$(z) reduces to ~50 %. (d) On average, better sensitivity to lower clouds skews ALADIN's cloud peak height in pairs of ALADIN–CALIOP profiles by ~0.5±0.6 km downwards, but this effect does not alter the heights of polar stratospheric clouds and high tropical clouds thanks to their strong backscatter signals. (e) The temporal evolution of the observed CDA$_{norm}^{obs}$(z) does not reveal any statistically significant change during the considered period. This indicates that the instrument-related issues in ALADIN L0/L1 have been mitigated, at least down to the uncertainties of the following CDA$_{norm}^{obs}$(z) values: 68±12 %, 55±14 %, 34±14 %, 39±13 %, and 42±14 % estimated at 0.75, 2.25, 6.75, 8.75, and 10.25 km, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber for Distributed Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

This work describes the use of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity, CH4, and CO2 based on the strain produced along the single-mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases onto the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting in a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different relative humidity (RH) conditions. The strain response of the SMF under various mixed gas composition and different RH conditions were also measured and made calibration curves accordingly. Linear regression and principal component analysis of the strain datasets provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, N2, CH4, and CO2. Additionally, modified OFS comprised of the Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed once corrosion of Fe occurs. Also, corrosion of Fe was studied under soil by installing the fiber in soil with protective measures which would prevent the sensor being mechanically disturbed or broken during installation. The corrosion rates were studied by monitoring the rate at which the intensity of backscattered light amplitude attains a steady state value when complete corrosion of Fe with a specific coating thickness occurs.

Mainali, Badri↗

A Q-band frequency tunable Doppler backscattering (DBS) system for pedestal and scrape-off layer density fluctuation and flow measurements in the DIII-D tokamak

We present the design and laboratory tests for a new Q-band frequency tunable Doppler backscattering (DBS) system suitable for probing poloidal wavenumber kñ = 6–8 cm−1 density fluctuations and their flow velocities in the pedestal and scape-off layer (SOL) of the DIII-D tokamak. This system will provide new measurements in the increasingly important and under-diagnosed far pedestal and SOL plasma regions. These results are important for experimental transport studies and necessary for the validation of transport models, both of which are important to fusion energy research. The use of a single tunable frequency reduces the complexity and potential failure points as compared to a multichannel system. This new system utilizes a 33–50 GHz tunable source and will be integrated into the current V-band DBS in DIII-D using a broadband Q- and V-band multiplexer. A full-scale mockup of the quasi-optical system was used to test and optimize the performance. These tests include beam profile measurements at different distances (and angles) from a paraboloidal focusing and steering mirror. The measurements cover the full frequency range 33–75 GHz of the integrated/combined Q–V band DBS system and target a large radial coverage of the low-field side of the plasma from ρ = 1.1 to ρ = 0.5, where ρ is the normalized flux surface radial coordinate.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

In this work, the previously demonstrated capability of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity has been extended to monitor the humidity, CH4, and CO2 with different gas composition based on the strain produced along the single mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases on to the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different humidity conditions, while the unjacketed portion of the fiber was used only for sensing pressure/temperature induced strain. In case of N2 at 800 psig pressure, the observed microstrain was ~80, ~65, ~50 and ~35 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, and 23.4 RH% respectively. Comparatively, a microstrain of ~95 µε was observed with 100% RH CH4 which demonstrates that SMF produces a measurable CH4 response alongside water. Similarly, the observed microstrain with CO2 was ~105, ~90, ~85, ~ 80, and ~70 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, 23.4, and 0 RH% respectively. Linear regression and principal component analysis of these dataset provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, CH4, and CO2 enabling good cross sensitivity. Additionally, modified OFS comprising of Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed once corrosion occurs.

Mainali, Badri↗

Calibration of the sub-aperture backscatter system on OMEGA EP

The sub-aperture backscatter (SABS) diagnostic on the OMEGA EP Laser System is a diagnostic that is used to measure the backscattered and sidescattered light during laser–plasma interaction experiments that are relevant to high-energy-density physics and inertial confinement fusion. The diagnostic collects stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) UV light at around 351 nm and stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) in the visible-light regime in the 420–720-nm-wavelength range and provides spectrally and temporally resolved information. Five 1-in. light collectors, composed of a lens, ground glass diffuser, and coupling into a 300-μm fiber, are positioned behind the last steering mirror on one of the four beamlines to catch a portion of the beam cross section (~1.5%) of the emission that is scattered into the beamline. The SRS light is collected in two light collectors, combined, and transported via graded index fibers to a streaked spectrometer. The SABS-SRS streak spectrometer has a temporal and spectral resolution of 100 ps and 1 nm, respectively. Three other light collectors collect, combine, and transport the SBS signal to a Hamamatsu high-voltage photodiode, where an oscilloscope digitizes the data, providing a time resolution of better than 1 ns. To obtain an absolute energy calibration of SRS measurements, light signals of known energy and wavelength were injected into the light collectors one at a time. The resulting counts on the streak camera charge-coupled device for SRS are then correlated with the incident fluence of scattered light at the light collector in order to allow a quantitative assessment of streak camera sensitivity to determine the energy of the scattered light during experiments. The measurements were performed in situ from the light collectors to the detectors. Other offline measurements provided the transmission of the optics between the target chamber center and the light collectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

High-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering at the high energy density scientific instrument at the European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser

We introduce a setup to measure high-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering at the High Energy Density scientific instrument at the European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser (XFEL). The setup uses the Si (533) reflection in a channel-cut monochromator and three spherical diced analyzer crystals in near-backscattering geometry to reach a high spectral resolution. An energy resolution of 44 meV is demonstrated for the experimental setup, close to the theoretically achievable minimum resolution. The analyzer crystals and detector are mounted on a curved-rail system, allowing quick and reliable changes in scattering angle without breaking vacuum. The entire setup is designed for operation at 10 Hz, the same repetition rate as the high-power lasers available at the instrument and the fundamental repetition rate of the European XFEL. Among other measurements, it is envisioned that this setup will allow studies of the dynamics of highly transient laser generated states of matter.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗