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Results for “optimization under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multiscale Informatics for Low-Temperature Propane Oxidation: Further Complexities in Studies of Complex Reactions

We have developed a multi-scale approach (Burke, M. P.; Klippenstein, S. J.; Harding, L. B. Proc. Combust. Inst. 2013, 34, 547–555.) to kinetic model formulation that directly incorporates elementary kinetic theories as a means to provide reliable, physics-based extrapolation to unexplored conditions. Here, we extend and generalize the multi-scale modeling strategy to treat systems of considerable complexity – involving multi-well reactions, potentially missing reactions, non-statistical product branching ratios, and non-Boltzmann (i.e. non-thermal) reactant distributions. The methodology is demonstrated here for a subsystem of low-temperature propane oxidation, as a representative system for low-temperature fuel oxidation. A multi-scale model is assembled and informed by a wide variety of targets that include ab initio calculations of molecular properties, rate constant measurements of isolated reactions, and complex systems measurements. Active model parameters are chosen to accommodate both “parametric” and “structural” uncertainties. Theoretical parameters (e.g. barrier heights) are included as active model parameters to account for parametric uncertainties in the theoretical treatment; experimental parameters (e.g. initial temperatures) are included to account for parametric uncertainties in the physical models of the experiments. RMG software is used to assess potential structural uncertainties due to missing reactions. Additionally, branching ratios among product channels are included as active model parameters to account for structural uncertainties related to difficulties in modeling sequences of multiple chemically activated steps. The approach is demonstrated here for interpreting time-resolved measurements of OH, HO2, n-propyl, i-propyl, propene, oxetane, and methyloxirane from photolysis-initiated low-temperature oxidation of propane at pressures from 4 to 60 Torr and temperatures from 300 to 700 K. In particular, the multi-scale informed model provides a consistent quantitative explanation of both ab initio calculations and time-resolved species measurements. The present results show that interpretations of OH measurements are significantly more complicated than previously thought – in addition to barrier heights for key transition states considered previously, OH profiles also depend on additional theoretical parameters for R + O2 reactions, secondary reactions, QOOH + O2 reactions, and treatment of non-Boltzmann reaction sequences. Extraction of physically rigorous information from those measurements may require more sophisticated treatment of all of those model aspects, as well as additional experimental data under more conditions, to discriminate among possible interpretations and ensure model reliability. Keywords: Optimization, Uncertainty quantification, Chemical mechanism, Low-Temperature Oxidation, Non-Boltzmann

Chemical mechanism↗
NASA NTRS2010

Asymptotic Linearity of Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Law with Analytical Stability Margins

Optimal control modification has been developed to improve robustness to model-reference adaptive control. For systems with linear matched uncertainty, optimal control modification adaptive law can be shown by a singular perturbation argument to possess an outer solution that exhibits a linear asymptotic property. Analytical expressions of phase and time delay margins for the outer solution can be obtained. Using the gradient projection operator, a free design parameter of the adaptive law can be selected to satisfy stability margins.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Zaman, Kais↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century

This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth's water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.

Numerical analysis/modeling↗
DOE OSTI2018

Survey of Multifidelity Methods in Uncertainty Propagation, Inference, and Optimization

In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a computationally expensive high-fidelity model describes the system with the accuracy required by the current application at hand, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate but computationally cheaper than the high-fidelity model. Outer-loop applications, such as optimization, inference, and uncertainty quantification, require multiple model evaluations at many different inputs, which often leads to computational demands that exceed available resources if only the high-fidelity model is used. This work surveys multifidelity methods that accelerate the solution of outer-loop applications by combining high-fidelity and low-fidelity model evaluations, where the low-fidelity evaluations arise from an explicit low-fidelity model (e.g., a simplified physics approximation, a reduced model, a data-fit surrogate) that approximates the same output quantity as the high-fidelity model. The overall premise of these multifidelity methods is that low-fidelity models are leveraged for speedup while the high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to establish accuracy and/or convergence guarantees. We categorize multifidelity methods according to three classes of strategies: adaptation, fusion, and filtering. The paper reviews multifidelity methods in the outer-loop contexts of uncertainty propagation, inference, and optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Limited‐memory adaptive snapshot selection for proper orthogonal decomposition

Summary Reduced order models are useful for accelerating simulations in many‐query contexts, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. However, offline training of reduced order models (ROMs) can have prohibitively expensive memory and floating‐point operation costs in high‐performance computing applications, where memory per core is limited. To overcome this limitation for proper orthogonal decomposition, we propose a novel adaptive selection method for snapshots in time that limits offline training costs by selecting snapshots according an error control mechanism similar to that found in adaptive time‐stepping ordinary differential equation solvers. The error estimator used in this work is related to theory bounding the approximation error in time of proper orthogonal decomposition‐based ROMs, and memory usage is minimized by computing the singular value decomposition using a single‐pass incremental algorithm. Results for a viscous Burgers' test problem demonstrate convergence in the limit as the algorithm error tolerances go to zero; in this limit, the full‐order model is recovered to within discretization error. A parallel version of the resulting method can be used on supercomputers to generate proper orthogonal decomposition‐based ROMs, or as a subroutine within hyperreduction algorithms that require taking snapshots in time, or within greedy algorithms for sampling parameter space. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Oxberry, Geoffrey M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A staged deep learning approach to spatial refinement in 3D temporal atmospheric transport

High-resolution spatiotemporal simulations effectively capture the complexities of atmospheric plume dispersion in complex terrain. However, their high computational cost makes them impractical for applications requiring rapid responses or iterative processes, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, or inverse modeling. To address this challenge, this work introduces the Dual-Stage Temporal Three-dimensional UNet Super-resolution (DST3D-UNet-SR) model, a highly efficient deep learning model for plume dispersion predictions. DST3D-UNet-SR is composed of two sequential modules: the temporal module (TM), which predicts the transient evolution of a plume in complex terrain from low-resolution temporal data, and the spatial refinement module (SRM), which subsequently enhances the spatial resolution of the TM predictions. We train DST3D-UNet-SR using a comprehensive dataset derived from high-resolution large eddy simulations (LES) of plume transport. We propose the DST3D-UNet-SR model to significantly accelerate LES of three-dimensional (3D) plume dispersion by three orders of magnitude. Additionally, the model demonstrates the ability to dynamically adapt to evolving conditions through the incorporation of new observational data, substantially improving prediction accuracy in high-concentration regions near the source.

3D temporal sequences↗
DOE OSTI2022

LaSDI: Parametric Latent Space Dynamics Identification

Enabling fast and accurate physical simulations with data has become an important area of computational physics to aid in inverse problems, design-optimization, uncertainty quantification, and other various decision-making applications. This paper presents a data-driven framework for parametric latent space dynamics identification procedure that enables fast and accurate simulations. The parametric model is achieved by building a set of local latent space model and designing an interaction among them. An individual local latent space dynamics model achieves accurate solution in a trust region. By letting the set of trust region to cover the whole parameter space, our model shows an increase in accuracy with an increase in training data. Herein we introduce two different types of interaction mechanisms, i.e., point-wise and region-based approach. Both linear and nonlinear data compression techniques are used. We illustrate the framework of Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) enable a fast and accurate solution process on various partial differential equations, i.e., Burgers’ equations, radial advection problem, and nonlinear heat conduction problem, achieving 0 (100)x speed-up and 0 (1)% relative error with respect to the corresponding full order models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-EF-BRA-03: Catheter- Free Ablation with External Photon Radiation: Treatment Planning, Delivery Considerations, and Correlation of Effects with Delivered Dose

Purpose: To plan, target, and calculate delivered dose in atrioventricular node (AVN) ablation with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in an intact porcine model. Methods: Seven pigs underwent AVN irradiation, with prescription doses ranging between 25 and 55Gy in a single fraction. Cardiac CT scans were acquired at expiration. Two physicians contoured AVN targets on 10 phases, providing estimates of target motion and inter-physician variability. Treatment planning was conducted on a static phase-averaged CT. The volume designated to receive prescription dose covered the full extent of AVN cardiac motion, expanded by 4mm for setup uncertainty. Optimization limited doses to risk structures according to single-fraction tumor treatment protocols. Orthogonal kV images were used to align bony anatomy at time of treatment. Localization was further refined with respiratory-gated cone-beam CT, and range of cardiac motion was verified under fluoroscopy. Beam delivery was respiratory-gated for expiration with a mean efficiency of 60%. Deformable registration of the 10 cardiac CT phases was used to calculate actual delivered dose for comparison to electro-anatomical and visually evident lesions. Results: The mean [minimum,maximum] amplitude of AVN cardiac motion was LR 2.9 [1.7,3.9]mm, AP 6.6 [4.4,10.4]mm, and SI 5.6 [2.0,9.9]mm. Incorporating cardiac motion into the dose calculation showed the volume receiving full dose was 40–80% of the volume indicated on the static planning image, although the contoured AVN target received full dose in all animals. Initial results suggest the dimensions of the electro-anatomical lesion are correlated with the 40Gy isodose volume. Conclusion: Image-guidance techniques allow for accurate and precise delivery of VMAT for catheter-free arrhythmia ablation. An arsenal of advanced radiation planning, dose optimization, and image-guided delivery techniques was employed to assess and mitigate effects of cardiac and respiratory motion. Feasibility of delivery to the pulmonary veins and left ventricular myocardium will be investigated in future studies. D. Packer Disclosures: Abiomed, Biosense Webster, Inc., Boston Scientific Corp., CardioFocus, Inc., Johnson and Johnson, Excerpta Medica, Ortho-McNeil-Jannsen, Sanofi Aventis, CardioInsight Technologies, InfoBionic, SIEMENS, Medtronic, Inc., CardioDx, Inc., CardioInsight Technologies, FoxP2 Medica, Mediasphere Medical, Wiley-Blackwell, St. Jude Medical, Endosense, Thermedical, EP Advocate LLC, Hansen Medical, American Heart Association, EpiEP, NIH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source-to-Source Automatic Differentiation of OpenMP Parallel Loops

This article presents our work toward correct and efficient automatic differentiation of OpenMP parallel worksharing loops in forward and reverse mode. Automatic differentiation is a method to obtain gradients of numerical programs, which are crucial in optimization, uncertainty quantification, and machine learning. The computational cost to compute gradients is a common bottleneck in practice. For applications that are parallelized for multicore CPUs or GPUs using OpenMP, one also wishes to compute the gradients in parallel. Here, we propose a framework to reason about the correctness of the generated derivative code, from which we justify our OpenMP extension to the differentiation model. We implement this model in the automatic differentiation tool Tapenade and present test cases that are differentiated following our extended differentiation procedure. Performance of the generated derivative programs in forward and reverse mode is better than sequential, although our reverse mode often scales worse than the input programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reverse-Mode Algorithmic Differentiation of an OpenMP-Parallel Compressible Flow Solver

y Reverse-mode algorithmic differentiation (AD) is an established method for obtaining adjoint derivatives of computer simulation applications. In computational fluid dynamics (CFD), adjoint derivatives of a cost function output such as drag or lift with respect to design parameters such as surface coordinates or geometry control points are a key ingredient for shape optimization, uncertainty quantification and flow control. The computational cost of CFD applications and their derivatives makes it essential to use high-performance computing hardware efficiently, including multi- and many-core architectures. Nevertheless, OpenMP is not supported in most AD tools, and previously shown methods achieve poor scalability of the derivative code. We present the AD of an OpenMP-parallelized finite volume compressible flow solver for unstructured meshes. Our approach enables us to reuse the parallelization of the original code in the computation of adjoint derivatives. The method works by identifying code segments that can be differentiated in reverse-mode without changing their memory access pattern. The OpenMP parallelization is integrated into the derivative code during the build process in a way that is robust to modifications of the original code and independent of the OpenMP support of the differentiation tool. We show the scalability of our adjoint CFD solver on test cases ranging from thousands to millions of finite volume mesh cells on CPUs with up to 16 threads as well as on an Intel XeonPhi card with 236 threads. We demonstrate that our approach is more practical to implement for production-sized CFD codes and produces more efficient adjoint derivative code than previously shown AD methods.

Huckelheim, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2015

Limited-memory adaptive snapshot selection for proper orthogonal decomposition

Reduced order models are useful for accelerating simulations in many-query contexts, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. However, offline training of reduced order models can have prohibitively expensive memory and floating-point operation costs in high-performance computing applications, where memory per core is limited. To overcome this limitation for proper orthogonal decomposition, we propose a novel adaptive selection method for snapshots in time that limits offline training costs by selecting snapshots according an error control mechanism similar to that found in adaptive time-stepping ordinary differential equation solvers. The error estimator used in this work is related to theory bounding the approximation error in time of proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models, and memory usage is minimized by computing the singular value decomposition using a single-pass incremental algorithm. Results for a viscous Burgers’ test problem demonstrate convergence in the limit as the algorithm error tolerances go to zero; in this limit, the full order model is recovered to within discretization error. The resulting method can be used on supercomputers to generate proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models, or as a subroutine within hyperreduction algorithms that require taking snapshots in time, or within greedy algorithms for sampling parameter space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Safeguards Technology Program FY2026 Mid-Year Report for Project WBS# 24.1.3.3: Development of Procedures for Th-U Radiochronometry of Uranium Particles by LG-SIMS

Implementing 230 Th- 234 U radiochronometry of environmental uranium particles by large geometry secondary ion mass spectrometry (LG-SIMS) requires assessment, validation, and technical support before safeguards conclusions can be drawn from the information. This project investigates the most challenging aspects of LG-SIMS particle radiochronometry 230 Th- 234 U measurements through a collaboration between LANL and NIST, to provide best practices and procedures for determining high quality ages with optimized uncertainties. This includes exploration of reducing detector backgrounds, investigating the best ways to report uncertainties, and establishing recommended instrument setups.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constructing A New CHF Look-Up Table Based on the Domain Knowledge Informed Machine Learning Methodology

Accurate prediction of CHF under various fluid flow conditions continues to be required for design, operation and safety analysis of light water reactor rod bundles. Due to the lack of in-depth physical understanding as well as limited high-resolution data in the micro-scale flow and heat transfer, the existing models feature a sub-optimal uncertainty band. In this study, driven by the prior domain knowledge information obtained, an improved CHF look-up table is developed through unified machine learning algorithms for the vertical flow conditions within tube and annulus geometry. The Groeneveld 2006 look-up table is used as the domain knowledge to train machine learning process against tube and annulus CHF data for both DNB and DO type. The new look-up table shows improved accuracy for conditions relevant to PWRs and BWRs. In addition, its domain knowledge informed nature ensures that a rationale prediction can be made, thus accounting for previous valuable information in the machine learning model training process.

Jin, Yue↗