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In This Issue: - Two New On-orbit Fragmentations - Machine Learning Applications Supporting the ODPO - Radar Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment from HUSIR and Goldstone: 2023 - Meeting Reports - Monthly Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type - Upcoming Meetings - Space Missions and Satellite Box Score
Examination of 29.37 sq m of thick aluminum plates from the LDEF, which were exposed to the meteoroid and man-made orbital debris environments for 5.8 years, revealed 606 craters that were 0.5 mm in diameter or larger. Most were nearly hemispherical. There was a large variation in the number density of craters around the three axis gravity gradient stabilized spacecraft. A new model of the near-Earth meteoroid environment gives good agreement with the crater fluxes measured on the fourteen faces of the LDEF. The man-made orbital debris model of Kessler, which predicts that 16 pct. of the craters would be caused by man-made debris, is plausible. No chemical analyses of impactor residue that will distinguish between meteoroids and man-made debris is yet available.
The performance of ISS spacecraft materials and systems on prolonged exposure to the low- Earth orbit (LEO) space flight are reported in this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are described. The space flight environments definitions (both natural and induced) used for ISS design, material selection, and verification testing are shown, in most cases, to be more severe than the actual flight environment accounting, in part, for the outstanding performance of ISS as a long mission duration spacecraft. No significant ISS material or system failures have been attributed to spacecraft-environments interactions. Nonetheless, ISS materials and systems performance data is contributing to our understanding of spacecraft material interactions with the spaceflight environment so as to reduce cost and risk for future spaceflight projects and programs. Orbital inclination (51.6 deg) and altitude (nominally near 360 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the functional life of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in an electrically conducting environment (the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere) with well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other charged and neutral ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays. The LEO micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an especially important determinant of spacecraft design and operations. The magnitude of several environmental factors varies dramatically with latitude and longitude as ISS orbits the Earth. The high latitude orbital environment also exposes ISS to higher fluences of trapped energetic electrons, auroral electrons, solar cosmic rays, and galactic cosmic rays than would be the case in lower inclination orbits, largely as a result of the overall shape and magnitude of the geomagnetic field. As a result, ISS exposure to many environmental factors can vary dramatically along a particular orbital ground track, and from one ground track to the next, during any 24-hour period. The induced environment results from ISS interactions with the natural environment as well as environmental factors produced by ISS itself and visiting vehicles fleet. Examples include ram-wake effects, hypergolic thruster plume impingement, materials out-gassing, venting and dumping of fluids, and specific photovoltaic (PV) power system interactions with the ionospheric plasma (7-11). Vehicle size (L) and velocity (V), combined with the magnitude and direction of the geomagnetic field (B) produce operationally significant magnetic induction voltages (VxB.L) in ISS conducting structure during flight through high latitudes (> +45deg) during each orbit. Finally, an induced ionizing radiation environment is produced by cosmic ray interaction with the relatively thick ISS structure and shielding materials. The intent of this review article is, therefore, to provide a summary of selected aspects and elements of the ISS vehicle with regard to LEO space environment effects, associated with the much larger and more complicated vehicle that ISS has become since 1998, but also with an eye towards performance life extension to the year 2016 and beyond.
This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.
The performance of ISS spacecraft materials and systems on prolonged exposure to the low-Earth orbit (LEO) space flight is reported in this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are presented. The space flight environments definitions (both natural and induced) used for ISS design, material selection, and verification testing are shown, in most cases, to be more severe than the actual flight environment accounting for the outstanding performance of ISS as a long mission duration spacecraft. No significant ISS material or system failures have been attributed to spacecraft-environments interactions. Nonetheless, ISS materials and systems performance data is contributing to our understanding of spacecraft material interactions in the spaceflight environment so as to reduce cost and risk for future spaceflight projects and programs. Orbital inclination (51.6o) and altitude (nominally near 360 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the functional life of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in an electrically conducting environment (the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere) with well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other charged and neutral ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays (1-4). The LEO micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an especially important determinant of spacecraft design and operations (5, 6). The magnitude of several environmental factors varies dramatically with latitude and longitude as ISS orbits the Earth (1-4). The high latitude orbital environment also exposes ISS to higher fluences of trapped energetic electrons, auroral electrons, solar cosmic rays, and galactic cosmic rays (1-4) than would be the case in lower inclination orbits, largely as a result of the overall shape and magnitude of the geomagnetic field (1-4). As a result, ISS exposure to many environmental factors can vary dramatically along a particular orbital ground track, and from one ground track to the next, during any 24-hour period.
This 1995 report updates the findings and recommendations of the 1989 report and reflects the authors' progress in understanding and managing the orbital debris environment. It provides an up-to-date portrait of their measurement, modeling, and mitigation efforts; and a set of recommendations outlining specific steps they should pursue, both domestically and internationally, to minimize the potential hazard posed by orbital debris.
Since 1993, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone) to sample statistically the orbital debris environment. Due to the sensitivity of this radar, which can detect an approximately 3 mm-diameter conducting sphere at 1,000 km, it has filled an important role in the characterization of the sub-centimeter-sized orbital debris population. Through the years, the capabilities of this system have increased – recent updates include increased receiver bandwidth and a change in the bi-static observation geometry – both of which enhance the radar’s ability to estimate orbital parameters. In 2016, dual polarization capability was added, making this the first year where both right- and left-hand circularly polarized information was available from this sensor. This additional polarization information may enable better characterization of sub-centimeter-sized particles in low Earth orbit, particularly since the receiver triggers on reflected energy from both left- and right-handed circular polarizations independently. In this paper, we present measurements and results derived from data taken during the calendar years (CY) 2016-2017 by Goldstone and compare this dataset to measurements taken by the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) during a similar timeframe.
Orbital debris environment models, such as NASA's LEGEND model, show that accidental collisions between satellites will begin to be the dominant cause for future debris population growth within the foreseeable future. The collisional breakup models employed are obviously a critical component of the environment models. The Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test which destroyed the Fengyun-1C weather satellite provided a rare, but not unique, chance to compare the breakup models against an actual on-orbit collision. Measurements from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), for debris larger than 10-cm, and from Haystack, for debris larger than 1-cm, show that the number of fragments created from Fengyun significantly exceeds model predictions using the NASA Standard Collisional Breakup Model. However, it may not be appropriate to alter the model to match this one, individual case. Two other on-orbit collisions have occurred in the past which have produced significant numbers of debris fragments. In September 1985, the U.S. conducted an ASAT test against the Solwind P-78 spacecraft at an altitude of approximately 525 km. A year later, in September 1986, the Delta 180 payload was struck by its Delta II rocket body in a planned collision at 220 km altitude. Although no Haystack data is available in 1985-6 and very few debris pieces were cataloged from Delta 180 due to its low altitude, measurements were collected in dedicated tests by phased array radars in the SSN in the days after each test. This paper will examine the available radar data from each test and compare and contrast the results with model predictions and with the results from the more recent Fengyun ASAT test.
For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been collecting measurements of the orbital debris environment from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and its auxiliary (HAX). These measurements sample the small debris population in low earth orbit (LEO). This paper will provide an overview of recent observations and highlight trends in selected debris populations. Using the NASA size estimation model, objects with a characteristic size of 1 cm and larger observed from HUSIR will be presented. Also, objects with a characteristic size of 2 cm and larger observed from HAX will be presented.
For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been collecting measurements of the orbital debris environment from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and its auxiliary (HAX). These measurements sample the small debris population in low earth orbit (LEO). This paper will provide an overview of recent observations and highlight trends in selected debris populations. Using the NASA size estimation model, objects with a characteristic size of 1 cm and larger observed from HUSIR will be presented. Also, objects with a characteristic size of 2 cm and larger observed from HAX will be presented.
Any discussion of expanding the capabilities of Space Surveillance Networks to include tracking and cataloging smaller objects will require a good understanding of orbital debris. In the current U.S. catalog of over 11,000 objects, more than 50% are classified as "debris" to include fragmentation debris, operational debris, liquid metal coolant, and Westford needles. If the catalog is increased to 100,000 objects by lowering the tracked object size threshold, almost all of the additional objects will be orbital debris. The Orbital Debris Program Office has been characterizing the small orbital debris environment through measurements and modeling for many years. This presentation will specifically discuss two different studies conducted at NASA. The first study was done in 1992 and examined the requirements and produced a conceptual design for a Collision Avoidance Network to protect the Space Station Freedom from centimeter sized orbital debris while minimizing maneuvers. The second study was conducted last year and produced NASA s estimate of the orbital population for the years 2015 and 2030 for objects 2 cm and larger.
While quite a lot is known about the orbital debris environment and how to limit its growth, more remains to be learned. The curent priorities for research and development, from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center perspective, will be discussed.
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.
Over the past 50 years, various NASA communities have contributed significantly to maturing NASA s meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD)1 programs to their current state. As a result of these community efforts, and to NASA s credit, NASA s MMOD programs and models are now widely used and respected by the providers and users of both government and commercial satellites, nationally as well as internationally. Satellites have been redesigned to protect critical components from MMOD damage by moving critical components from exterior surfaces to deep inside a satellite s structure. Orbits are monitored and altered to minimize the risk of collision with tracked orbital debris. MMOD shielding added to the International Space Station (ISS) protects critical components and astronauts from potentially catastrophic damage that might result from smaller, untracked debris and meteoroid impacts. The space shuttle, as it orbited Earth, and whether docked to the ISS or not, was optimally oriented to protect its fragile thermal protection and thermal radiation systems from MMOD damage. In addition, astronauts inspected its thermal protection system for MMOD damage before the shuttle reentered Earth s atmosphere; Orion, NASA s capsule to carry astronauts to low Earth orbit, includes designs to mitigate the threat of MMOD damage and provide increased safety to the crew. When a handful of reasonable assumptions are used in NASA s MMOD models, scenarios are uncovered that conclude that the current orbital debris environment has already reached a "tipping point." That is, the amount of debris - in terms of the population of large debris objects, as well as overall mass of debris in orbit - currently in orbit has reached a threshold where it will continually collide with itself, further increasing the population of orbital debris. This increase will lead to corresponding increases in spacecraft failures, which will only create more feedback into the system, increasing the debris population growth rate. The increase thus far has been most rapid in low Earth orbit (LEO), with geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEOs) potentially suffering the same fate, but over a much longer time period. The exact timing and pace of this exponential growth are uncertain, but the serious implications of such a scenario require careful attention because of the strategic importance of U.S. space operations. The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget contracted with the National Research Council for a study to perform three tasks: review NASA s MMOD programs and efforts, recommend in which of those NASA should increase or decrease its effort or change focus, and determine whether NASA should pursue work in any new MMOD areas. The official letter requesting the study and the full statement of task for the Committee for the Assessment of NASA s Orbital Debris Programs are in Appendixes A and B, respectively.
The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.
The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.
The ability to classify the size and shape of individual orbital debris fragments provides a better understanding of the orbital debris environment as a whole. The characterization of breakup fragmentation debris has gradually evolved from a simplistic, spherical assumption towards that of describing debris in terms of size, material, and shape parameters. One of the goals of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office is to develop high-accuracy techniques to measure these parameters and apply them to orbital debris observations. Measurement of the physical characteristics of debris resulting from groundbased, hypervelocity impact testing provides insight into the shapes and sizes of debris produced from potential impacts in orbit. Current techniques for measuring these ground-test fragments require determination of dimensions based upon visual judgment. This leads to reduced accuracy and provides little or no repeatability for the measurements. With the common goal of mitigating these error sources, allaying any misunderstandings, and moving forward in fragment shape determination, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office recently began using a computerized measurement system. The goal of using these new techniques is to improve knowledge of the relation between commonly used dimensions and overall shape. The immediate objective is to scan a single fragment, measure its size and shape properties, and import the fragment into a program that renders a 3D model that adequately demonstrates how the object could appear in orbit. This information would then be used to aid optical methods in orbital debris shape determination. This paper provides a description of the measurement techniques used in this initiative and shows results of this work. The tradeoffs of the computerized methods are discussed, as well as the means of repeatability in the measurements of these fragments. This paper serves as a general description of methods for the measurement and shape analysis of orbital debris.