Results for “ozone depletion” — Page 8

NASA NTRS1988

Modelling the Antarctic lower stratosphere

Results form modeling studies of the Antarctic lower stratosphere which have attempted to simulate the large springtime ozone losses and corresponding changes in other trace constituents are given. These studies were carried out in a photochemical box model, a one-dimensional model without transport and in a two-dimensional photochemical-dynamical-radiation model. The photochemical studies have investigated inter alia the sensitivity of ozone to inclusion in the model of heterogeneous chemistry, and to the inclusion of the ClO dimer. When both of these are incorporated in the model, ozone depletions resembling whose found in Halley Bay in 1987 (J.C. Farman, Nature, 329, 1987) can be reproduced. The temporal variations (both diurnal and during the August to October period) of a number of important tracers including HCl, ClONO2, OClO and BrO are discussed. The two-dimensional study concentrated on the difficulty of establishing in the model the dynamical preconditioning of the lower polar stratosphere - low temperatures, low N2O, etc., high ClOx. Calculations are presented to show: (1) the depletion of ozone during the springtime season, (2) the effect of large ozone losses on lower latitudes, and (3) the longer term (multi-year) variations of ozone in Antarctica, assuming realistic increases in the atmospheric halogen burden.

Chipperfield, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment and the Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (ALE/GAGE)

The ALE/GAGE project was designed to determine the global atmospheric lifetimes of the chlorofluorocarbons CCl3F and CCl2F2 (F-11 and F-12), which had been identified as the main gases that cause stratospheric ozone depletion. The experimental procedures also provided the concentrations of CH3CCl3, CCl4 and N2O. The extended role of the project was to evaluate the mass balances of these gases as well. Methylchloroform (CH3CCl3) serves as a tracer of average atmospheric OH concentrations and hence the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas and can also deplete the ozone layer. Measurements of these gases were taken with optimized instruments in the field at a frequency of about 1 sample/hr. Toward the end of the present project methane measurements were added to the program. The final report deals with the research of the Oregon Graduate Institute (OGI) as part of the ALE/GAGE program between 4/1/1988 and 1/31/1991. The report defines the scope of the OGI project, the approach, and the results.

Rasmussen, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Spectroscopic data for thermal infrared remote sensing

There has been extensive world-wide use of chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC's), especially CFC-11 (CFCl3) and CFC-12 (CF2Cl2), hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFC's), HCFC-22 (CHFCl2) in particular, and sulphur hexaflouride (SF6) in numerous many industrial applications. These chemicals possess either a strong ozone-depletion potential or a global-warming potential, or both, and pose a threat to the inhabitability of our planet. Recognition of this fact has led to significant curtailment, if not total banishment, of their use globally. However, as recent satellite observations have shown, decline in their atmospheric concentrations may not be immediate. The marked depletion of ozone which has been observed in recent years at high latitudes has made infrared remote sensing of the atmosphere an activity of high priority. The success of any infrared remote sensing experiment conducted in the atmosphere depends upon the availability of accurate, high-resolution, spectroscopic data that are applicable to that experiment. This paper presents a preliminary phase of a multi-faceted work using a Fourier-transform spectrometer (FTS) which is in progress in our laboratory. The concept of how laboratory-borne measurements can be geared toward obtaining a database that is directly applicable to satellite-borne remote sensing missions is the main thrust of this paper which addresses itself to ongoing or planned international space missions. Spectroscopic data on the unresolvable bands of the above mentioned as well as several other man-made gases and on the individual spectral lines of such naturally present trace gases as CO2, N2O, NH3, and CH4 are presented. There is often significant overlap between the isolated lines of better known bands of the more abundant species and the weaker absorption features identifiable as bands of the currently less abundant CFC's, HCFC's, and SF6.

Varanasi, P.↗

NASA NTRS2015

9+ Years of CALIOP PSC Data: An Evolving Climatology

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play key roles in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation, which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. However, there are still significant gaps in our understanding of PSC processes, particularly concerning the details of NAT particle formation. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs on unprecedented vortex-wide scales. In this paper, we examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Antarctic and Arctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record.

Pitts, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

9+ Years of CALIPSO PSC Observations: An Evolving Climatology

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record from 2006- 2015.

Pitts, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

CALIPSO Polar Stratospheric Cloud Observations from 2006-2015

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record from 2006- 2015.

Pitts, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-20076-DND

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than eight-year data record.

Michael C Pitts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Synopsis of the 8+ Year CALIOP Polar Stratospheric Cloud Data Record

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than eight-year data record.

Michael C Pitts↗

NASA NTRS2015

Disentangling the Roles of Various Forcing Mechanisms on Stratospheric Temperature Changes Since 1979 with the NASA GEOSCCM

Observations show that the cooling of global stratospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2015 took place in two major steps coincident with the 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions. In order to attribute the features of the global stratospheric temperature time series to the main forcing agents, we performed a set of simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model. Our results show that the characteristic step-like behavior is to be attributed to the effects of the solar cycle, except for the post-1995 flattening of the lower stratospheric temperatures, where the decrease in ozone depleting substances due to the Montreal Protocol slowed ozone depletion and therefore also the cooling of the stratosphere. Volcanic eruptions also caused a significant warming of the stratosphere after 1995. The observed general cooling is mainly caused by increasing ozone depleting substances in the lower stratosphere, and greenhouse gases in the middle and upper stratosphere.

ozone↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Effect of Anthropogenically Amplified Halogen Natural Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Between Pre-Industrial and Present-Day

Reactive halogens (X + XO, X = I, Br or Cl) catalytically destroy a fraction of tropospheric ozone under present-day (PD) conditions, however, their distribution and potential impact on tropospheric ozone under pre-industrial (PI) conditions remain largely unexplored. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) to investigate the effect of anthropogenically amplified natural emissions of halogenated species and their subsequent chemistry on tropospheric ozone under PI and PD atmospheric conditions. Model results show that the global tropospheric ozone depletion due to natural halogens is slightly more sensitive in PI than PD, with percentage changes in tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of -14.1 ± 0.6% for PI and -12.9 ± 0.6% for PD. Individually, the role of iodine and chlorine in ozone depletion is equivalent in both periods (ΔTOB I : ~-7% and ΔTOB Cl : ~-2.5%), while bromine plays a larger role in PI (ΔTOB Br : -5.5 ± 0.6%) versus PD (ΔTOB Br : -4.3 ± 0.7%). The increase in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from PI to PD has amplified the natural emission of inorganic halogens and led to a shift in the partitioning of inorganic halogens from reactive to reservoir species. Consequently, halogen-driven ozone depletion from the surface to the free troposphere is larger in PI than PD. In contrast, in the upper troposphere, the ozone depletion is larger in PD influenced mainly by stratospheric intrusion of reactive halogens from long-lived species. This study highlights the importance of including a complete chemical coupling of natural halogens and atmospheric pollutants in chemistry-climate models to adequately assess their effects on tropospheric ozone in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Comparing Model Ozone Loss during the SOLVE and SOLVE-2 Winters

Model simulations have been used to analyze the factors influencing ozone loss during the 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 js. For both winters, the evolution of the Arctic vortex from November to April has been simulated using a trajectory-based microphysical and photochemical model. Extensive PSC formation and strong ozone depletion are evident in both winters. However, the ozone loss begins earlier in the 2002-2003 winter, with significant ozone depletion by early January. Analysis of the model results shows that during December 2002 not only cold temperatures but also the vortex structure was critical, allowing PSC-processed air parcels to experience significant solar exposure. The resultant ozone loss can be differentiated from ozone loss that occurs in the springtime, in particular because of the continued exposure to PSCs. For example, chlorine reactivation by the PSCs causes ozone loss to be insensitive to denitrification. Therefore, diagnosing the extent of ozone loss early in the winter is critical In understanding the overall winter-long ozone depletion.

Drdla, K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

On the Relationship Between the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and the Southern Annular Mode During Austral Summer in Couple Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations

The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is the mean transport circulation in the stratosphere. It consists of an upwelling branch in the tropics, poleward flows from the tropics to the extratropics, and downward flows in the extratropics. The BDC plays a crucial role in the distribution of important stratospheric trace gases, such as ozone and water vapor. Therefore changes in the strength of the BDC under global warming could have significant impact on stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. For example, all climate models that are used by the World Meteorological Organization to predict ozone evolution in the 21 st century project a strengthening of the BDC that leads to ozone superrecovery in the mid-latitudes. On the other hand, ozone changes could also affect the strength of the BDC. This work investigates an outstanding question: whether and how changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation are connected to climate change in the troposphere, in particular, the annular modes. The annular modes are the leading variability in the extratropical troposphere, which describes a seesaw pattern of circulation fluctuations between the polar and middle latitudes. Using simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM), we found the strengthening of the BDC in the summer Southern Hemisphere is strongly correlated with a shift of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) toward its positive phase for the last 4 decades of the 20th century. This relationship is only present in model runs that simulate the stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore it is concluded that the BDC-SAM relationship is driven by Antarctic ozone depletion. The ozone hole significantly cools the Antarctic stratosphere in late spring/early summer, which leads to a delayed breakdown of the polar vortex: strong circumpolar eastward flows that usually shift to westward winds in late spring. The prolonged persistence of stratospheric eastward flow enhances upward propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere and strengthens the BDC. The increased wave flux in the stratosphere in turn drives a SAM trend toward its positive phase. Our results also show that the BDC-SAM relationship is robust on the interannual timescale

Li, Feng↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Atmospheric Effects of HSCT Emissions Simulated by a 3-Wave Interactive Model

An interactive model which couples a semi-spectral dynamical model, a radiative transfer code and a two-dimensional chemistry transport model (2-D CTM), is used to assess the atmospheric effects of the High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) engine emissions. The residual mean meridional circulation, the zonal-mean temperature and the eddy diffusion coefficients are calculated using zonal means and three longest zonal waves of dynamical variables integrated in the semi-spectral dynamical model. They are used in the 2-D CTM to simulate the distribution of trace gases in the atmosphere. The simulated ozone is sent to the radiative transfer code to calculate the heating rates, which drive the dynamics. This radiative coupling connects the dynamical and photochemical processes and creates feedback when the atmosphere is perturbed. It is found that in most areas the ozone depletion caused by HSCT emissions calculated using the 3-wave model has the features similar to, but with significantly larger magnitude than that calculated by the AER 2-D CTM with prescribed transport parameters and temperature. The difference is mostly due to the differences in the circulation in the two models. The radiative feedback effects are investigated by comparing the ozone depletion calculated with the baseline dynamics and with the dynamics perturbed by the HSCT emissions. The feedback through changes in the residual mean meridional circulation and the eddy diffusion coefficients has moderate effects on the simulated ozone depletion. It reduced the ozone depletion by 20-30% in northern mid and high-latitudes. However, the feedback through changes in the zonal- mean temperature is negligible.

Shia, R.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The global distribution of ozone destruction rates obtained from 13 years of Nimbus/TOMS data (1979-1991)

Long-term ozone trends (percentage change) have been computed from 13 years of Nimbus/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) data as a function of latitude, longitude, and month for the period January 1, 1979 to December 31, 1991. In both hemispheres, the ozone column content has decreased at latitudes above 30 deg by amounts that are larger than predicted by homogeneous chemistry models for the 13-year time period. The largest rates of ozone decrease occur in the Southern Hemisphere during winter and spring, with recovery during the summer and autumn. The large winter ozone loss rates are consistent with observed low stratospheric temperatures, ice-cloud formation, and heterogeneous chemistry at middle and high latitudes. There are similar, but smaller changes observed in the Northern Hemisphere. At midlatitudes, (40 deg N to 50 deg N) there are increased zonal average ozone depletion rates that correspond to 5 geographically localized regions of increased ozone depletion rates. Only the equatorial band between plus or minus 20 deg shows little or no long-term ozone change since January, 1979. The long-term winter ozone depletion rate data for both hemispheres suggests that heterogeneous chemistry processes may operate over a wide range of latitudes during half of the year.

Herman, Jay R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Large ozone perturbations caused by the 1908 Tunguska meteor fall - Were there related weather effects

The magnitude of the ozone depletion due to the 1908 Tunguska meteor fall is estimated and observational evidence of such a depletion is presented. Calculated stratospheric ozone and NO(x) perturbations caused by the meteor are shown, with the hemispherically averaged model giving total stratospheric ozone reductions as large as 45 percent in the first year, with significant reductions persisting for at least three more years. Ozone depletion above 10 km altitude is found to be about 85 percent for several months, and higher yet at 20, 30, and 40 km. Data from the early 1900s to calculate the variability of the solar constant is used to calculate the ozone column concentration for 1909-11. The results are in close agreement with the model prediction. Weather records of the early 1900s show a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere for almost a decade after Tunguska.

Turco, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short-lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single-forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS-induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short-lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra-tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi-model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra-tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter-model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS-induced ozone depletion.

Halogenated ozone-depleting substances↗

NASA NTRS1994

UV-B radiation amplification factor determined based on the simultaneous observation of total ozone and global spectral irradiance

The Japan Meteorological Agency started the spectral observation of solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance on 1 January 1990 at Tateno, Aerological Observatory in Tsukuba (35 deg N, 140 deg E). The observation has been carried out using the Brewer spectrophotometer for the wavelengths from 290 to 325 nm with a 0.5 nm interval every hour from 30 minutes before sunrise to 30 minutes after sunset throughout a year. Because of remarkable similarity within observed spectra, an observed spectrum can be expressed by a simple combination of a reference spectrum and two parameters expressing the deformation of the observed spectrum from the reference. By use of the relation between one of the deformation parameters and the total ozone simultaneously observed with the Dobson spectrophotometer, the possible increase of UV irradiance due to ozone depletion is estimated. For damaging UV, the irradiance possibly increases about 19 percent with the ozone depletion of 10 percent at noon throughout the year in the northern midlatitudes. DUV at noon on the summer solstice possibly increases about 5.6 percent with the ozone depletion of 10 m atm-cm for all latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.

Ito, T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗