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Correlations between polyamine ratios and growth patterns in seedling roots

The levels of putrescine, cadaverine, spermidine and spermine were determined in seedling roots of pea, tomato, millet and corn, as well as in corn coleoptiles and pea internodes. In all roots, putrescine content increased as elongation progressed, and the putrescine/spermine ratio closely paralleled the sigmoid growth curve up until the time of lateral root initiation. Spermidine and spermine were most abundant near the apices and declined progressively with increasing age of the cells. In the zone of differentiation of root hairs in pea roots, putrescine rose progressively with increasing age, while cadaverine declined. In both pea internodes and corn coleoptiles, the putrescine/spermidine ratio rises with increasing age and elongation. Thus, a block in the conversion of the diamine putrescine to the triamine spermidine may be an important step in the change from cell division to cell elongation.

Non-NASA Center↗

The 1987 RIACS annual report

The Research Institute for Advanced Computer Science (RIACS) was established at the NASA Ames Research Center in June of 1983. RIACS is privately operated by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA), a consortium of 64 universities with graduate programs in the aerospace sciences, under several Cooperative Agreements with NASA. RIACS's goal is to provide preeminent leadership in basic and applied computer science research as partners in support of NASA's goals and missions. In pursuit of this goal, RIACS contributes to several of the grand challenges in science and engineering facing NASA: flying an airplane inside a computer; determining the chemical properties of materials under hostile conditions in the atmospheres of earth and the planets; sending intelligent machines on unmanned space missions; creating a one-world network that makes all scientific resources, including those in space, accessible to all the world's scientists; providing intelligent computational support to all stages of the process of scientific investigation from problem formulation to results dissemination; and developing accurate global models for climatic behavior throughout the world. In working with these challenges, we seek novel architectures, and novel ways to use them, that exploit the potential of parallel and distributed computation and make possible new functions that are beyond the current reach of computing machines. The investigation includes pattern computers as well as the more familiar numeric and symbolic computers, and it includes networked systems of resources distributed around the world. We believe that successful computer science research is interdisciplinary: it is driven by (and drives) important problems in other disciplines. We believe that research should be guided by a clear long-term vision with planned milestones. And we believe that our environment must foster and exploit innovation. Our activities and accomplishments for the calendar year 1987 and our plans for 1988 are reported.

Source record↗

Physiological asymmetry in etiolated pea epicotyls: relation to patterns of auxin distribution and phototropic behavior

Etiolated pea seedlings require transformation of Pr phytochrome to Pfr before they display optimal phototropic response to unilateral blue light. This study investigates the possible role of auxin transport in explaining these phenomena. Labeled [2-14C]IAA applied to the intact terminal buds of dark-grown and red light-treated pea seedlings was measured 210 min later on the shaded and illuminated sides of the epicotyl as a function of direction and duration of irradiation with blue light. Totally darkened epicotyls show an asymmetry in distribution of radioactivity in the upper growth zone of the epicotyl, in favor of the side under the concave part of the apical hook. Red light, which greatly potentiates curvature toward subsequent unilateral blue light, lowers this asymmetry. Blue light directed to the epicotyl of red-pretreated plants in a plane parallel to the hook and from the side bearing the convex portion of the hook induces positive phototropic curvature as well as a surplus of radioactivity on the illuminated side of the upper epicotyl and on the shaded side of the lower growth zone of the epicotyl. Light directed to the side bearing the concave part of the hook also causes an accumulation of counts in the upper part of the lighted side but produces neither curvature of the epicotyl nor accumulation of counts in the lower shaded side. Because of this built-in physiological asymmetry in the growth zone just below the apical hook, it is difficult to explain the effects of red and blue light on curvature in terms of patterns of auxin distribution alone.

NASA Program Space Biology↗

Macromolecular differentiation of Golgi stacks in root tips of Arabidopsis and Nicotiana seedlings as visualized in high pressure frozen and freeze-substituted samples

The plant root tip represents a fascinating model system for studying changes in Golgi stack architecture associated with the developmental progression of meristematic cells to gravity sensing columella cells, and finally to "young" and "old", polysaccharide-slime secreting peripheral cells. To this end we have used high pressure freezing in conjunction with freeze-substitution techniques to follow developmental changes in the macromolecular organization of Golgi stacks in root tips of Arabidopsis and Nicotiana. Due to the much improved structural preservation of all cells under investigation, our electron micrographs reveal both several novel structural features common to all Golgi stacks, as well as characteristic differences in morphology between Golgi stacks of different cell types. Common to all Golgi stacks are clear and discrete differences in staining patterns and width of cis, medial and trans cisternae. Cis cisternae have the widest lumina (approximately 30 nm) and are the least stained. Medial cisternae are narrower (approximately 20 nm) and filled with more darkly staining products. Most trans cisternae possess a completely collapsed lumen in their central domain, giving rise to a 4-6 nm wide dark line in cross-sectional views. Numerous vesicles associated with the cisternal margins carry a non-clathrin type of coat. A trans Golgi network with clathrin coated vesicles is associated with all Golgi stacks except those of old peripheral cells. It is easily distinguished from trans cisternae by its blebbing morphology and staining pattern. The zone of ribosome exclusion includes both the Golgi stack and the trans Golgi network. Intercisternal elements are located exclusively between trans cisternae of columella and peripheral cells, but not meristematic cells. In older peripheral cells only trans cisternae exhibit slime-related staining. Golgi stacks possessing intercisternal elements also contain parallel rows of freeze-fracture particles in their trans cisternal membranes. We propose that intercisternal elements serve as anchors of enzyme complexes involved in the synthesis of polysaccharide slime molecules to prevent the complexes from being dragged into the forming secretory vesicles by the very large slime molecules. In addition, we draw attention to the similarities in composition and apparent site of synthesis of xyloglucans and slime molecules.

NASA Program Space Biology↗

High-performance epistasis detection in quantitative trait GWAS

epiSNP is a program for identifying pairwise single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions (epistasis) in quantitative-trait genome-wide association studies (GWAS). A parallel MPI version (EPISNPmpi) was created in 2008 to address this computationally expensive analysis on large data sets with many quantitative traits and SNP markers. However, the falling cost of genotyping has led to an explosion of large-scale GWAS data sets that challenge EPISNPmpi’s ability to compute results in a reasonable amount of time. Therefore, we optimized epiSNP for modern multi-core and highly parallel many-core processors to efficiently handle these large data sets. This paper describes the serial optimizations, dynamic load balancing using MPI-3 RMA operations, and shared-memory parallelization with OpenMP to further enhance load balancing and allow execution on the Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor (MIC). For a large GWAS data set, our optimizations provided a 38.43× speedup over EPISNPmpi on 126 nodes using 2 MICs on TACC’s Stampede Supercomputer. We also describe a Coarray Fortran (CAF) version that demonstrates the suitability of PGAS languages for problems with this computational pattern. We show that the Coarray version performs competitively with the MPI version on the NERSC Edison Cray XC30 supercomputer. Finally, the performance benefits of hyper-threading for this application on Edison (average 1.35× speedup) are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Distributed non-negative matrix factorization with determination of the number of latent features

The holistic analysis and understanding of the latent (that is, not directly observable) variables and patterns buried in large datasets is crucial for data-driven science, decision making and emergency response. Such exploratory analyses require devising unsupervised learning methods for data mining and extraction of the latent features, and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is one of the prominent such methods. NMF is based on compute-intense non-convex constrained minimization, which, for large datasets requires fast and distributed algorithms. However, current parallel implementations of NMF fail to estimate the number of latent features. In practice, identifying these features is both difficult and significant for pattern recognition and latent feature analysis, especially for large dense matrices. Here, we introduce a distributed NMF algorithm coupled with distributed custom clustering followed by a stability analysis on dense data, which we call DnMFk, to determine the number of latent variables. The results on synthetic data and the classical Swimmer data set demonstrate the accuracy of model determination while scaling nearly linearly across multiple processors for large data. Further, we employ DnMFk to determine the number of hidden features from a terabyte matrix.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cabana: A Performance Portable Library for Particle-Based Simulations

Particle-based simulations are ubiquitous throughout many fields of computational science and engineering, spanning the atomistic level with molecular dynamics (MD), to mesoscale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations for solid mechanics, device-scale modeling with PIC methods for plasma physics, and massive N-body cosmology simulations of galaxy structures, with many other methods in between (Hockney & Eastwood, 1989). While these methods use particles to represent significantly different entities with completely different physical models, many low-level details are shared including performant algorithms for short- and/or long-range particle interactions, multi-node particle communication patterns, and other data management tasks such as particle sorting and neighbor list construction. Cabana is a performance portable library for particle-based simulations, developed as part of the Co-Design Center for Particle Applications (CoPA) within the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) (Alexander et al., 2020). The CoPA project and its full development scope, including ECP partner applications, algorithm development, and similar software libraries for quantum MD, is described in (Mniszewski et al., 2021). Cabana uses the Kokkos library for on-node parallelism (Edwards et al., 2014; Trott et al., 2022), enabling simulation on multi-core CPU and GPU architectures, and MPI for GPU-aware, multi-node communication. Cabana provides particle simulation capabilities on almost all current Kokkos backends, including serial execution, OpenMP (including OpenMP-Target for GPUs), CUDA (NVIDIA GPUs), HIP (AMD GPUs), and SYCL (Intel GPUs), providing a clear path for the coming generation of accelerator-based exascale hardware. Cabana builds on Kokkos by providing new particle data structures and particle algorithms resulting in a similar execution policy-based, node-level programming model that is intended to be used in addition to the core Kokkos library within an application. Cabana is designed as an application and physics agnostic, but particle-specific toolkit which can either be used to generate a new application, or to be used as needed in existing applications at various levels of invasiveness including through interfaces that wrap user memory in existing data structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MILK : a Python scripting interface to MAUD for automation of Rietveld analysis

Modern diffraction experiments ( e.g. in situ parametric studies) present scientists with many diffraction patterns to analyze. Interactive analyses via graphical user interfaces tend to slow down obtaining quantitative results such as lattice parameters and phase fractions. Furthermore, Rietveld refinement strategies ( i.e. the parameter turn-on-off sequences) tend to be instrument specific or even specific to a given dataset, such that selection of strategies can become a bottleneck for efficient data analysis. Managing multi-histogram datasets such as from multi-bank neutron diffractometers or caked 2D synchrotron data presents additional challenges due to the large number of histogram-specific parameters. To overcome these challenges in the Rietveld software Material Analysis Using Diffraction ( MAUD ), the MAUD Interface Language Kit ( MILK ) is developed along with an updated text batch interface for MAUD . The open-source software MILK is computer-platform independent and is packaged as a Python library that interfaces with MAUD . Using MILK , model selection ( e.g. various texture or peak-broadening models), Rietveld parameter manipulation and distributed parallel batch computing can be performed through a high-level Python interface. A high-level interface enables analysis workflows to be easily programmed, shared and applied to large datasets, and external tools to be integrated with MAUD . Through modification to the MAUD batch interface, plot and data exports have been improved. The resulting hierarchical folders from Rietveld refinements with MILK are compatible with Cinema: Debye–Scherrer , a tool for visualizing and inspecting the results of multi-parameter analyses of large quantities of diffraction data. In this manuscript, the combined Python scripting and visualization capability of MILK is demonstrated with a quantitative texture and phase analysis of data collected at the HIPPO neutron diffractometer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fault Tolerant Frequent Pattern Mining

FP-Growth algorithm is a Frequent Pattern Mining (FPM) algorithm that has been extensively used to study correlations and patterns in large scale datasets. While several researchers have designed distributed memory FP-Growth algorithms, it is pivotal to consider fault tolerant FP-Growth, which can address the increasing fault rates in large scale systems. In this work, we propose a novel parallel, algorithm-level fault-tolerant FP-Growth algorithm. We leverage algorithmic properties and MPI advanced features to guarantee an O(1) space complexity, achieved by using the dataset memory space itself for checkpointing. We also propose a recovery algorithm that can use in-memory and disk-based checkpointing, though in many cases the recovery can be completed without any disk access, and incurring no memory overhead for checkpointing. We evaluate our FT algorithm on a large scale InfiniBand cluster with several large datasets using up to 2K cores. Our evaluation demonstrates excellent efficiency for checkpointing and recovery in comparison to the disk-based approach. We have also observed 20x average speed-up in comparison to Spark, establishing that a well designed algorithm can easily outperform a solution based on a general fault-tolerant programming model.

Shohdy, Sameh↗

Data Structures for Extreme Scale Computing

As computing problems of national importance grow, the government meets the increased demand by funding the development of ever larger systems. The overarching goal of the work supported in part by this grant is to increase efficiency of programming and performing computations on these large computing systems. In past work, we have demonstrated that some of these computations once thought to require expensive hardware designs and/or complex, special-purpose programming may be executed efficiently on low-cost commodity cluster computing systems using a general-purpose “latency-tolerant” programming framework. One important developed application of the ideas underlying this framework is graph database technology supporting social network pattern matching used by US intelligence agencies to more quickly identify potential terrorist threats. This database application has been spun out by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a Department of Energy Laboratory, into a commercial start-up, Trovares Inc. We explore an alternative application of the same underlying ideas to a well-studied challenge arising in engineering: solving unstructured sparse linear equations. Solving these equations is key to predicting the behavior of large electronic circuits before they are fabricated. Predicting that behavior ahead of fabrication means that designs can optimized and errors corrected ahead of the expense of manufacture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C

Drainage structures are used to capture stormwater runoff in streets and highways in urban environments. These drainage structures, which typically consist of catch basins with grates, inlets, or combination grates/inlets, collect stormwater runoff and discharge through buried conveyance systems. They are strategically placed for public safety in curb and gutter systems to provide efficient drainage of water from roadways and thus reduce the risk of hydroplaning. The performance of drainage structures is measured in terms of hydraulic efficiency, which is defined as the percentage of flow captured by the basin as compared to the total flow drainage to the structure. Understanding of the performance of these drainage structures helps designers properly space inlets to promote an economic design that ensures the safety of the traveling public. The current design methodology used to determine drainage structure follows guidelines established in the current Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Drainage Manual (2006). The guidelines in the MDOT Drainage Manual were modeled after the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Hydraulic Engineering Circular 22 “Urban Drainage Design” (HEC-22). HEC-22 includes empirically derived equations to calculate the interception capacity of drainage structures for several commonly used grate configurations, such as the parallel bar, curved vane and tilt bar grates, which are based on a research study performed by Burgi et al. in the 1970s. MDOT uses several drainage structures to capture runoff that are detailed as Standard Plans. Many of these drainage structures utilize sinusoidal type grates that are not described in HEC-22. Physical modeling of these structures has been limited, posing the need to have them analyzed to verify their capture efficiency. Current MDOT practice is to assume a similar sized reticuline grate, as described in HEC-22, for capture efficiencies. Until recently, evaluating the hydraulic performance of drainage structures was limited to physical modeling in a hydraulics laboratory. With advances in engineering software and computing power, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling has become a more cost-effective alternative. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides states the option to evaluate their drainage structures using CFD through the Transportation Pooled Fund Program. This study, “Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C,” was carried out using the pooled fund. MDOT’s Cover C was chosen as the first test candidate, given its similar sinusoidal pattern to other MDOT grates, but it is typically used for high-volume, higher speed applications. A similar version, Cover CX, is used on interstate highways but does not have traverse bars for bicycle safety. Additional grates may be considered for evaluation in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fusion Materials Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Fiscal Year 2023

The materials science challenge of providing a suite of suitable materials to satisfy the technology to achieve fusion energy is addressed in this ORNL program. The inability of currently available materials and components to withstand the harsh fusion nuclear environment requires development of new materials, and an understanding of their response to the fusion environment. The overarching goal of the ORNL Fusion Materials program is to provide the applied materials science support and materials understanding to underpin the ongoing DOE Office of Science—Fusion Energy Sciences program, in parallel with developing the materials for fusion power systems. In this effort the program continues to be integrated both with the larger U.S. and international fusion materials communities and with the U.S. and international fusion design and technology communities. The excitement of this program comes from the priorities given to this subject in the two recent fusion reviews, by the FESAC and NAS committees. An important element of those recommendations is the support for pivoting the national R&D emphasis to the Fusion Materials and Technologies (FM&T), the long-advocated Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source, and for the Fusion Pilot Plant study that will help focus program direction and efforts. Furthermore, the surge of venture capital investment into the private fusion industry start-ups over the last few years is anticipated to help accelerate all aspects of the fusion energy development. This twelfth annual report of the ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) Fusion Reactor Materials Program summarizes the accomplishments in Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023). The year was the first to return to full post-COVID-restriction operations, with students and international assignees no longer impacted by COVID restrictions, as in FY20-21-22. Following the pattern of planning used in this program, work for the year FY2023 focused on having the data and productivity to support a strong presence at the International Conference on Fusion Reactor Materials (ICFRM) 21, organized by Spain and occurred in October 2023. Twenty-nine ORNL-led abstracts were submitted, with all accepted. Four were invited presentations, nine contributed oral, fourteen posters, and two withdrawn due to unforeseen circumstances. Additionally, nine external abstracts with ORNL contributing authors were presented. These will be reported in the FY24 report next year.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computing for the DUNE Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Experiment

This is a talk given at Computers in High Energy Physics in Adelaide, South Australia, Australia in November 2019. It is partially intended to explain the context of DUNE Computing for computing specialists. The DUNE collaboration consists of over 180 institutions from 33 countries. The experiment is in preparation now with commissioning of the first 10kT fiducial volume Liquid Argon TPC expected over the period 2025-2028 and a long data taking run with 4 modules expected from 2029 and beyond. An active prototyping program is already in place with a short test beam run with a 700T, 15,360 channel prototype of single-phase readout at the neutrino platform at CERN in late 2018 and tests of a similar sized dual-phase detector scheduled for mid-2019. The 2018 test beam run was a valuable live test of our computing model. The detector produced raw data at rates of up to ~2GB/s. These data were stored at full rate on tape at CERN and Fermilab and replicated at sites in the UK and Czech Republic. In total 1.2 PB of raw data from beam and cosmic triggers were produced and reconstructed during the six week test beam run. Baseline predictions for the full DUNE detector data, starting in the late 2020's are 30-60 PB of raw data per year. In contrast to traditional HEP computational problems, DUNE's Liquid Argon TPC data consist of simple but very large (many GB) 2D data objects which share many characteristics with astrophysical images. This presents opportunities to use advances in machine learning and pattern recognition as a frontier user of High Performance Computing facilities capable of massively parallel processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FleCSPH notes

FleCSI is a compile-time con gurable framework designed to support multi-physics application development. As such, FleCSI provides a very general set of infrastructure design patterns that can be specialized and extended to suit the needs of a broad variety of solver and data requirements. FleCSI currently supports multi-dimensional mesh topology, geometry, and adjacency information, as well as n-dimensional hashed-tree data structures, graph partitioning interfaces, and dependency closures. FleCSI introduces a functional programming model with control, execution, and data abstractions that are consistent both with MPI and with state-of-the-art, task-based runtimes such as Legion and Charm++. The abstraction layer insulates developers from the underlying runtime, while allowing support for multiple runtime systems including conventional models like asynchronous MPI. The intent is to provide developers with a concrete set of user-friendly programming tools that can be used now, while allowing exibility in choosing runtime implementations and optimization that can be applied to future architectures and runtimes. FleCSI's control and execution models provide formal nomenclature for describing poorly understood concepts such as kernels and tasks. FleCSI's data model provides a low-buy-in approach that makes it an attractive option for many application projects, as developers are not locked into particular layouts or data structure representations. FleCSI currently provides a parallel but not distributed implementation of Binary, Quad and Oct-tree topology. This implementation is base on space lling curves domain decomposition, the Morton order. The current FleCSI version requires the implementation of a driver and a specialization driver. The role of the specialization driver is to provide the data distribution. This feature is not complete in FleCSI code and we provide it. The next step will be to incorporate it directly from FleCSPH to FleCSI as we reach a good level of performance. Then the driver represent the general execution of the resolution without worrying of the data locality and communications. As FleCSI is an On-Development code the structure may change in the future and we keep track of these changes in FleCSPH.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Digital tracking loops for a programmable digital modem

In this paper, an analysis and hardware emulation of the tracking loops for a very flexible programmable digital modem (PDM) will be presented. The modem is capable of being programmed for 2, 4, 8, 16-PSK, 16-QAM, MSK, and Offset-QPSK modulation schemes over a range of data rates from 2.34 to 300 Mbps with programmable spectral occupancy from 1.2 to 1.8 times the symbol rate; these operational parameters are executable in burst or continuous mode. All of the critical processing in both the modulator and demodulator is done at baseband with very high-speed digital hardware and memory. Quadrature analog front-ends are used for translation between baseband and the IF center frequency. The modulator is based on a table lookup approach, where precomputed samples are stored in memory and clocked out according to the incoming data pattern. The sample values are predistorted to counteract the effects of the other filtering functions in the link as well as any transmission impairments. The demodulator architecture was adapted from a joint estimator-detector (JED) mathematical analysis. Its structure is applicable to most signalling formats that can be represented in a two-dimensional space. The JED realization uses interdependent, mutually aiding tracking loops with post-detection data feedback. To expedite and provide for more reliable synchronization, initial estimates for these loops are computed in a parallel acquisition processor. The cornerstone of the demodulator realization is the pre-averager received data filter which allows operation over a broad range of data rates without any hardware changes and greatly simplifies the implementation complexity. The emulation results confirmed tracking loop operation over the entire range of operational parameters listed above, as well as the capability of achieving and maintaining synchronization at BER's in excess of 10(exp -1). The emulation results also showed very close agreement with the tracking loop analysis, and validated the resolution apportionment of the various hardware elements in the tracking loops.

Poklemba, John J.↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens

1. We investigated the impacts of wind power development on the demography, movements, and population genetics of Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) at three sites in northcentral and eastern Kansas for a 7-year period. Only 1 of 3 sites was developed for wind power, the 201MW Meridan Way Wind Power Facility at the Smoky Hills site in northcentral Kansas. Our project report is based on population data for prairie chickens collected during a 2-year preconstruction period (2007-2008), a 3-year postconstruction period (2009-2011) and one final year of lek surveys (2012). Where relevant, we present preconstruction data from our field studies at reference sites in the northern Flint Hills (2007-2009) and southern Flint Hills (2006-2008). 2. We addressed seven potential impacts of wind power development on prairie chickens: lek attendance, mating behavior, use of breeding habitat, fecundity rates, natal dispersal, survival rates, and population numbers. Our analyses of pre- and postconstruction impacts are based on an analysis of covariance design where we modeled population performance as a function of treatment period, distance to eventual or actual site of the nearest wind turbine, and the interaction of these factors. Our demographic and movement data from the 6-year study period at the Smoky Hills site included 23 lek sites, 251 radio-marked females monitored for 287 bird-years, and 264 nesting attempts. Our genetic data were based on genotypes of 1,760 females, males and chicks that were screened with a set of 27 microsatellite markers that were optimized in the lab. 3. In our analyses of lek attendance, the annual probability of lek persistence during the preconstruction period was ~0.9. During the postconstruction period, distance to nearest turbine did not have a significant effect on the probability of lek persistence. However, the probability of lek persistence increased from 0.69 at 0 m to 0.89 at 30 km from turbines, and most abandoned lek sites were located <5 km from turbines. Probability of lek persistence was significantly related to habitat and number of males. Leks had a higher probability of persistence in grasslands than agricultural fields, and increased from ~0.2 for leks of 5 males, to >0.9 for leks of 10 or more males. Large leks in grasslands should be a higher priority for conservation. Overall, wind power development had a weak effect on the annual probability of lek persistence. 3. We used molecular methods to investigate the mating behavior of prairie chickens. The prevailing view for lek-mating grouse is that females mate once to fertilize the clutch and that conspecific nest parasitism is rare. We found evidence that females mate multiple times to fertilize the clutch (8-18% of broods, 4-38% of chicks) and will parasitize nests of other females during egg-laying (~17% of nests). Variable rates of parentage were highest in the fragmented landscapes at the Smoky Hills field site, and were lower at the Flint Hills field site. Comparisons of the pre- and postconstruction periods showed that wind energy development did not affect the mating behaviors of prairie chickens. 4. We examined use of breeding habitats by radio-marked females and conducted separate analyses for nest site selection, and movements of females not attending nests or broods. The landscape was a mix of native prairie and agricultural habitats, and nest site selection was not random because females preferred to nest in grasslands. Nests tended to be closer to turbines during the postconstruction period and there was no evidence of behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during nest site selection. Movements of females not attending nests or broods showed that females crossed the site of the wind power development at higher rates during the preconstruction period (20%) than the postconstruction period (11%), and that movements away from turbines were more frequent during the postconstruction period. Thus, wind power development appears to affect movements in breeding habitats but not nest site selection of female prairie chickens during the breeding season. 5. We tested the effects of wind power development on five components of female fecundity: timing of clutch initiation, clutch size of first nests and renests, nest survival, and hatchability of eggs. Average date of clutch initiation was 26 April, clutch size was 12.7 and 10.6 eggs for first nests and renests, probability of nest survival was low at 0.18, but egg hatchability was high at 0.79. Wind power development had no impact on reproductive effort or nesting success, and all five components of fecundity were not related to treatment period or distance to turbine. Nest survival was the main factor limiting reproductive output of female prairie chickens and most losses were due to predation. Daily nest survival was strongly related to vegetative cover at the nest. Changes to rangeland management practices that would double nesting cover from 2.5 to 5 dm would triple the probability of nest survival from 0.17 to 0.52. Grass and forb cover had weak positive effects on daily nest survival whereas shrub cover, proximity to woodlands, and recent rainfall had negative effects. Reproductive performance of prairie chickens is low in managed rangelands in northcentral Kansas and efforts to improve range conditions and reduce predator activity would aid recovery of prairie chicken populations. 6. We used molecular methods to investigate patterns of natal dispersal in prairie chickens. High rates of nest failure limited the number of young that we could sample. Direct detections of natal dispersal were limited because survival of newly hatched chicks to become adults were low and because we were unable to detect dispersal distances outside of our study area. Direct observations of natal movements were limited and were inadequate to make conclusions about the potential impacts of wind energy development on natal dispersal. Spatial correlograms of genetic distance among males at leks were a more sensitive measure of population structure, and indicated a weak effect of wind energy development on the spatial genetic structure of prairie chickens. 7. We tested the effects of wind power development on female survival with time-to-event models, and on residual body mass of males with analyses of covariance. Distance to turbine and the interaction of distance and treatment period had no effect on female survival. Contrary to predictions of negative impacts of wind power development, the probability of female was lowest during the preconstruction period (0.274) and increased significantly during the postconstruction period (0.543). Inspection of hazard functions indicated that the difference in annual survival could be attributed to a higher risk of mortality during the lekking season in the preconstruction period. We suggest that wind power development may have improved ecological conditions for prairie chickens by disrupting the foraging behavior of diurnal raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek sites. In support of this idea, raptor kills tended to be farther from turbines during the postconstruction period whereas mammalian kills were closer. Analyses of the major causes of mortality did not support our hypothesis because the odds of raptor predation were greater after development was completed. Most mortality losses of radio-marked females were due to predation, and losses to collision mortality or harvest were rare events. Low rates of natural mortality during fall and winter imply that harvest is likely to be additive mortality in prairie chickens. Wind energy development reduced the residual body mass of male Greater Prairie-Chickens at lek sites near turbines. Low values of residual body mass could have a negative impact on individual survival or fecundity rates, or may be related to predation risk and flight performance of males displaying at open lek sites. 8. We tested for impacts of wind power development on population numbers of prairie chickens with monitoring of male numbers at leks, and with genetic measures of population structure. Lek counts indicated that wind power development did not affect the population size of prairie chickens. Peak counts of males at leks were recorded the first year after construction was completed and the highest rates of population change were observed during the interval when the wind power facility was constructed. Population numbers of prairie chickens near and distant from turbines appeared to covary in parallel, probably because bird numbers were linked by dispersal movements. Estimates of population viability based on genetic diversity, effective population size and rates of population exchange did not show annual changes and were unaffected by wind development during our study. Estimates of relatedness among males at the same and different leks suggested that wind power development has either reduced dispersal rates or changed settlement patterns, leading to higher rates of relatedness among males displaying at the same lek site. 9. Greater Prairie-Chickens were not strongly affected by wind power development in Kansas. Negative impacts of wind power development included a trend for reductions in lek persistence near turbines, behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during their breeding season movements, and changes in the genetic structure of males at leks that were consistent with reduced dispersal or recruitment rates. We found no impacts of wind power development on nest site selection, female reproductive effort or nesting success, or population numbers. Positive impacts of wind power development included an increase in female survival rates. We hypothesized that the unexpected increase in female survival was related to changes in trophic interactions and disruption of the foraging behavior of raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek site. 10. Research funding for this project included a grant from the 20% Wind by 2030 Program of the Department of Energy (this final report), and grants from the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, the National Fish and Wildlife Federation, and initial funding from the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative. Research products from data collected during the preconstruction period have included five peer-reviewed research articles and two PhD dissertations at Kansas State University. Additional manuscripts are in review for possible publication in 2013-2014.

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