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Results for “parameter uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Robust fixed order dynamic compensation for large space structure control

A simple formulation for designing fixed order dynamic compensators which are robust to both uncertainty at the plant input and structured uncertainty in the plant dynamics is presented. The emphasis is on designing low order compensators for systems of high order. The formulation is done in an output feedback setting which exploits an observer canonical form to represent the compensator dynamics. The formulation also precludes the use of direct feedback of the plant output. The main contribution lies in defining a method for penalizing the states of the plant and of the compensator, and for choosing the distribution on initial conditions so that the loop transfer matrix approximates that of a full state design. To improve robustness to parameter uncertainty, the formulation avoids the introduction of sensitivity states, which has led to complex formulations in earlier studies where only structured uncertainty has been considered.

Calise, Anthony J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Parameter Design Multiple Selection Criteria

The optimization tool described herein addresses and emphasizes the use of computer tools to model a system and focuses on a concept development approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system, but more particularly the development of the optimized system using new techniques. This methodology uses new and innovative tools to run Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, and statistical models in order to optimize a design concept. The concept launch vehicle and propulsion system were modeled and optimized to determine the best design for weight and cost by varying design and technology parameters. Uncertainty levels were applied using Monte Carlo Simulations and the model output was compared to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle Main Engine. Several key conclusions are summarized here for the model results. First, the Gross Liftoff Weight and Dry Weight were 67% higher for the design case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost when compared to the weights determined by the minimization of Gross Liftoff Weight case. In turn, the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost was 53% higher for optimized Gross Liftoff Weight case when compared to the cost determined by case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost. Therefore, a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Secondly, the tool outputs define the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. A key finding was that for a Space Shuttle Main Engine thrust level the oxidizer/fuel ratio of 6.6 resulted in the lowest Gross Liftoff Weight rather than at 5.2 for the maximum specific impulse, demonstrating the relationships between specific impulse, engine weight, tank volume and tank weight. Lastly, the optimum chamber pressure for Gross Liftoff Weight minimization was 2713 pounds per square inch as compared to 3162 for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost optimization case. This chamber pressure range is close to 3000 pounds per square inch for the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Shelton, Joey Dewayne↗
NASA NTRS2016

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Cirrus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-Scale Catalyst Modeling Applied to H 2 Storage and Release via Formic Acid

Here, we propose the Systems-to-Atoms (S2A) modeling framework that integrates the kinetics of reaction chemistry and structural configurations across various length scales with the aim of establishing a versatile template for multiscale modeling of reactive flow problems and to predict the operando activity of catalyst materials. The approach encompasses a microkinetic model to analyze surface reactions on individual facets of catalyst nanoparticles coupled with the computation of average surface reaction rates for catalyst nanoparticles of specific size distributions. Macro-homogeneous surface reaction kinetics are derived as a function of catalyst loading and used as input parameters for the continuum-scale reactor model. The cross-scale framework enables the optimization of catalyst utilization through reactor design and operating strategy. To demonstrate the framework, we studied the storage and release of hydrogen from formic acid, a promising liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), over Pd, Pt, and Cu catalysts. The framework predicts observed trends in formic acid dehydrogenation activity for catalysts with comparable weight loadings and metal particle diameters, demonstrating satisfactory quantitative alignment. Finally, the seamless transmission of parameter uncertainties between scales is also discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uniting Surface Properties With Hydrodynamic Roughness in Shallow Overland Flow Models

Describing flow resistance from the properties of an underlying surface is a challenge in surface hydrology. Runoff models must specify a resistance formulation or “roughness scheme”—describing the functional relationship between flow resistance and flow depth/velocity—and its parameters. Uncertainty in runoff predictions derives from both the selected roughness scheme (e.g., Darcy Weisbach, Manning's, or laminar flow equations), and its parameterization with a roughness coefficient (e.g., Manning's n). Both choices are informed by model calibration to data, usually discharge, and, if available, velocity. In this study, a Saint Venant Equation-based runoff model is calibrated to discharge and velocity data from 112 rainfall simulator experiments. The results are used to identify the optimal roughness scheme among four widely-used options for each experiment, and to explore whether surface properties can be used to select the optimal roughness scheme and its coefficient. Among the tested roughness schemes, a transitional flow equation provided the best fit to the plurality of experiments. The most suitable roughness scheme for a given experiment was not related to measured surface properties. Regression models predicted the calibrated roughness coefficients with adjusted values between 0.48 and 0.54, depending on the roughness scheme used. Litter cover was the best predictor of the roughness coefficient, followed by soil cover and average canopy gap size. The results suggest that selection of an optimal roughness scheme based on surface properties alone remains difficult, but that once a scheme is selected, roughness coefficients can be estimated from surface properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian stability and force modeling for uncertain machining processes

Accurately simulating machining operations requires knowledge of the cutting force model and system frequency response. However, this data is collected using specialized instruments in an ex-situ manner. Bayesian statistical methods instead learn the system parameters using cutting test data, but to date, these approaches have only considered milling stability. This paper presents a physics-based Bayesian framework which incorporates both spindle power and milling stability. Initial probabilistic descriptions of the system parameters are propagated through a set of physics functions to form probabilistic predictions about the milling process. The system parameters are then updated using automatically selected cutting tests to reduce parameter uncertainty and identify more productive cutting conditions, where spindle power measurements are used to learn the cutting force model. The framework is demonstrated through both numerical and experimental case studies. Results show that the approach accurately identifies both the system natural frequency and cutting force model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Plutonium Decorporation in a Female Nuclear Worker Treated with Ca-DTPA after Inhalation Intake

The present work models plutonium (Pu) biokinetics in a female former nuclear worker. Her bioassay measurements are available at the US Transuranium and Uranium Registries. The worker was internally exposed to a plutonium-americium mixture via acute inhalation at a nuclear weapons facility. She was medically treated with injections of 1 g Ca-DTPA on days 0, 5, and 14 after the intake. Between days 0 and 20, fecal and urine samples were collected and analyzed for 239 Pu and 241 Am. Subsequently, she was followed up for bioassay monitoring over 14 y, with additional post-treatment urine samples collected and analyzed for 239 Pu. The uniqueness of this dataset is due to the availability of: (1) both early and long-term bioassay data from a female with plutonium intake; (2) data on chelation therapy for a female; and (3) fecal measurement results. Chelation therapy with Ca- and/or Zn-salts of DTPA is known to aid in reducing the internal radiation dose by enhancing the excretion of plutonium and americium from the body. Such enhancement affects plutonium biokinetics in the human body, posing a challenge to the internal dose assessment. The current radiation dose assessment practice is to exclude the data affected by Ca-DTPA from the analysis. The present analysis is the first to explicitly model the chelation-affected bioassay data in a female by using a newly developed chelation model. Thus, the bioassay data collected during and after the Ca-DTPA administrations were used for biokinetic modeling and dose assessment. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to investigate model parameter uncertainty, based on the bioassay data and assumed prior probability distributions. A χ 2 /nData (number of data points) ≈ 1 was observed in this study, which indicates self-consistency of the data with the model. Results of this study show that the worker’s 239 Pu intake was 12 Bq, with a committed effective dose to the whole-body of 1.2 mSv and a committed equivalent dose to the bone surfaces, liver, and lungs of 37.8, 9.1, and 0.8 mSv, respectively. This study also discusses the worker’s dose reduction due to chelation treatment.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological constraints from second- and third-order shear statistics

Here, we present a cosmological analysis of the third-order aperture mass statistic using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data. We perform a complete tomographic measurement of the three-point correlation function of the Y3 weak lensing shape catalog with the four fiducial source redshift bins. Building upon our companion methodology paper, we apply a pipeline that combines the two-point function ξ ± with the mass aperture skewness statistic ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ , which is an efficient compression of the full shear three-point function. We use a suite of simulated shear maps to obtain a joint covariance matrix. By jointly analyzing ξ ± and ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ measured from DES Y3 data with a Λ CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.780 ± 0.015 and Ω m = 0.26 6 - 0.040 + 0.039 , yielding 111% of figure-of-merit improvement in the Ω m - S 8 plane relative to ξ ± alone, consistent with expectations from simulated likelihood analyses. With a w CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.74 9 - 0.026 + 0.027 and w 0 = - 1.39 ± 0.31 , which gives an improvement of 22% on the joint S 8 - w 0 constraint. Our results are consistent with w 0 = - 1 . Our new constraints are compared to CMB data from the Planck satellite, and we find that with the inclusion of ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ the existing tension between the datasets is at the level of 2.3 σ . We show that the third-order statistic enables us to self-calibrate the mean photometric redshift uncertainty parameter of the highest redshift bin with little degradation in the figure of merit. Our results demonstrate the constraining power of higher-order lensing statistics and establish ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ as a practical observable for joint analyses in current and future surveys.

Gomes, R. C. H. [University of Pennsylvania] (ORCI↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
NASA NTRS1974

Research on infrared astrophysics and X ray and XUV astronomy

The infrared research was divided into two related subjects, observations at wavelengths less than 34 microns and millimeter wavelength observations. A new complex of infrared sources in the Orion Nebula observed along with a broad range of galactic and extragalactic objects. The Comet Kohoutek was measured in the 1-20 micron wavelength region and its thermal properties agreed closely with those of Comet Ikeya-Seki. Combined infrared and photoelectric studies of the Makarian galaxies showed them to have a composite spectrum with a large emission feature in the far infrared. The development of one millimeter photometry and composited bolometers is described. A technique of reconstructing two dimensional surface brightness distributions with appropriate errors from individual strip scans was developed. Model parameters were determined by fitting data in non-linear systems. Results show spectral parameter uncertainties are underestimated or incorrectly evaluated in most studies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

A design method for minimizing sensitivity to plant parameter variations

A method is described for minimizing the sensitivity of multivariable systems to parameter variations. The variable parameters are considered as random variables and their effect is included in a quadratic performance index. The performance index is a weighted sum of the state and control covariances that stem from both the random system disturbances and the parameter uncertainties. The numerical solution of the problem is described and application of the method to several initially sensitive tracking systems is discussed. The sensitivity factor of reduction was typically 2 or 3 over a system based on random system noise only, and yet resulted in state RMS increases of only about a factor of two.

Hadass, Z.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Closed-loop stability of linear quadratic optimal systems in the presence of modeling errors

The well-known stabilizing property of linear quadratic state feedback design is utilized to evaluate the robustness of a linear quadratic feedback design in the presence of modeling errors. Two general conditions are obtained for allowable modeling errors such that the resulting closed-loop system remains stable. One of these conditions is applied to obtain two more particular conditions which are readily applicable to practical situations where a designer has information on the bounds of modeling errors. Relations are established between the allowable parameter uncertainty and the weighting matrices of the quadratic performance index, thereby enabling the designer to select appropriate weighting matrices to attain a robust feedback design.

Toda, M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Decoupled control of a long flexible beam in orbit

Control involved commanding changes in pitch attitude as well as nulling initial disturbances in the pitch and flexible modes. Control force requirements were analyzed. Also, the effects of parameter uncertainties on the decoupling process were analyzed and were found to be small. Two methods were investigated: the system was completely coupled and certain actuators were then eliminated, one by one, which resulted in some or all modes not fully controlled; specified modes of the system were excluded from the decoupling control law by employing viewer control actuators than modes in the model. In both methods, adjustments were made in the feedback gains to include the uncontrolled modes in the overall control of the system.

Hamer, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Distributed control of large space antennas

A systematic way to choose control design parameters and to evaluate performance for large space antennas is presented. The structural dynamics and control properties for a Hoop and Column Antenna and a Wrap-Rib Antenna are characterized. Some results of the effects of model parameter uncertainties to the stability, surface accuracy, and pointing errors are presented. Critical dynamics and control problems for these antenna configurations are identified and potential solutions are discussed. It was concluded that structural uncertainties and model error can cause serious performance deterioration and can even destabilize the controllers. For the hoop and column antenna, large hoop and long meat and the lack of stiffness between the two substructures result in low structural frequencies. Performance can be improved if this design can be strengthened. The two-site control system is more robust than either single-site control systems for the hoop and column antenna.

Cameron, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Model error estimation for large flexible spacecraft

The basic model obtained for spacecraft control system design applications is used to develop the control and estimation algorithms which constitute integral elements of the control system. The performance of this system is limited on account of modeling errors. The presence of such errors is inevitable in connection with truncated dynamics, parameter uncertainties, neglected nonlinearities, and external disturbances. In many cases, an approximate knowledge of the model errors can only be established by means of an estimation procedure. The present investigation has the objective to outline an approach to estimate errors inherent in a reduced-order model and to illustrate its application to modeling problems arising in spacecraft control system design. The considered procedure makes use of the principle of least-squares. In the discussed application this principle is employed to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors.

Rodriguez, G.↗