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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Affordability Comparison Tool (ACT) for Space Transportation

NASA bas recently emphasized the importance of affordability for Commercial Crew Development Program (CCDP), Space Launch Systems (SLS) and Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). System architects and designers are challenged to come up with architectures and designs that do not bust the budget. This paper describes the Affordability Comparison Tool (ACT) analyzes different systems or architecture configurations for affordability that allows for a comparison of: total life cycle cost; annual recurring costs, affordability figures-of-merit, such as cost per pound, cost per seat, and cost per flight, as well as productivity measures, such as payload throughput. Although ACT is not a deterministic model, the paper develops algorithms and parametric factors that use characteristics of the architectures or systems being compared to produce important system outcomes (figures-of-merit). Example applications of outcome figures-of-merit are also documented to provide the designer with information on the relative affordability and productivity of different space transportation applications.

McCleskey, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Adjoint Sensitivity Computations for an Embedded-Boundary Cartesian Mesh Method and CAD Geometry

Cartesian-mesh methods are perhaps the most promising approach for addressing the issues of flow solution automation for aerodynamic design problems. In these methods, the discretization of the wetted surface is decoupled from that of the volume mesh. This not only enables fast and robust mesh generation for geometry of arbitrary complexity, but also facilitates access to geometry modeling and manipulation using parametric Computer-Aided Design (CAD) tools. Our goal is to combine the automation capabilities of Cartesian methods with an eficient computation of design sensitivities. We address this issue using the adjoint method, where the computational cost of the design sensitivities, or objective function gradients, is esseutially indepeudent of the number of design variables. In previous work, we presented an accurate and efficient algorithm for the solution of the adjoint Euler equations discretized on Cartesian meshes with embedded, cut-cell boundaries. Novel aspects of the algorithm included the computation of surface shape sensitivities for triangulations based on parametric-CAD models and the linearization of the coupling between the surface triangulation and the cut-cells. The objective of the present work is to extend our adjoint formulation to problems involving general shape changes. Central to this development is the computation of volume-mesh sensitivities to obtain a reliable approximation of the objective finction gradient. Motivated by the success of mesh-perturbation schemes commonly used in body-fitted unstructured formulations, we propose an approach based on a local linearization of a mesh-perturbation scheme similar to the spring analogy. This approach circumvents most of the difficulties that arise due to non-smooth changes in the cut-cell layer as the boundary shape evolves and provides a consistent approximation tot he exact gradient of the discretized abjective function. A detailed gradient accurace study is presented to verify our approach. Thereafter, we focus on a shape optimization problem for an Apollo-like reentry capsule. The optimization seeks to enhance the lift-to-drag ratio of the capsule by modifyjing the shape of its heat-shield in conjunction with a center-of-gravity (c.g.) offset. This multipoint and multi-objective optimization problem is used to demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the Cartesian adjoint method for addressing the issues of complex aerodynamic design. This abstract presents only a brief outline of the numerical method and results; full details will be given in the final paper.

Nemec, Marian↗
DOE OSTI2025

STREAM: A technology planning and capacity expansion model for the industrial sector

The Strategic Technology Roadmapping and Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Model—STREAM—is an optimization-based modeling tool and analysis framework to assist with strategic planning and technology investments of the industrial sector. This open-source framework is written in Julia using the JuMP package, which enables users to model future “pathways” for incumbent and future production technologies, costs, fuels and energy carriers, and energy and non-energy environmental impacts from industries as they transform in pursuit of a robust and competitive manufacturing sector. The model starts with an initial stock of industrial production technologies and assets at a facility level and then determines pathways that minimize cost, subject to an array of possible constraints on demand, market shares, environmental flows, and other exogenously specified operational considerations such as capacity utilization rates or regional energy costs. Key features of the framework include flexibility to model a wide range of industries and industrial technologies/processes at varying levels of granularity, ability to perform parametric sensitivity analyses, and ability to visualize model results using visualization objects.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Parametric reduced order models for graded lattice structures

Graded lattice structures, characterized by smoothly varying mechanical properties, hold significant promise for optimizing material distribution in advanced engineering applications. However, accurately modeling these structures poses substantial computational challenges due to the continuous geometric variations within their unit cells. Here, to address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel Efficient Reduced Order Model (EROM) that integrates the Matrix Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (MDEIM) and Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) with polynomial regression to efficiently manage geometric parametrization in lattice structures. Unlike traditional reduced order models (ROMs) that require extensive precomputed libraries for each geometric configuration, our approach enables continuous geometric variations through a flexible algebraic formulation, significantly reducing computational costs while preserving high accuracy. The method constructs projection matrices for individual unit cells that can be efficiently assembled into global systems, leveraging the repetitive nature of lattice structures. Numerical studies demonstrate that our EROM achieves displacement errors below 1% and von Mises stress prediction errors below 4%, coupled with computational speedups exceeding two orders of magnitude compared to full-order simulations. The proposed method's modularity and scalability make it particularly suitable for design optimization and real-time simulation of functionally graded lattice structures, with applications spanning aerospace to biomedical engineering.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. The SD module rejects waste heat from the power conversion cycle to space through a pumped-loop, multi-panel, deployable radiator. The baseline radiator configuration was defined during the Space Station conceptual design phase and is a function of the state point and heat rejection requirements of the power conversion unit. Requirements determined by the overall station design such as mass, system redundancy, micrometeoroid and space debris impact survivability, launch packaging, costs, and thermal and structural interaction with other station components have also been design drivers for the radiator configuration. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations. A brief description and discussion of the numerical model, it's capabilities and limitations, and results of the parametric studies performed is presented.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The use of parametric cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft systems in establishing initial Design to Cost Targets

This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.

Beltramo, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

True Concurrent Thermal Engineering Integrating CAD Model Building with Finite Element and Finite Difference Methods

Thermal engineering has long been left out of the concurrent engineering environment dominated by CAD (computer aided design) and FEM (finite element method) software. Current tools attempt to force the thermal design process into an environment primarily created to support structural analysis, which results in inappropriate thermal models. As a result, many thermal engineers either build models "by hand" or use geometric user interfaces that are separate from and have little useful connection, if any, to CAD and FEM systems. This paper describes the development of a new thermal design environment called the Thermal Desktop. This system, while fully integrated into a neutral, low cost CAD system, and which utilizes both FEM and FD methods, does not compromise the needs of the thermal engineer. Rather, the features needed for concurrent thermal analysis are specifically addressed by combining traditional parametric surface based radiation and FD based conduction modeling with CAD and FEM methods. The use of flexible and familiar temperature solvers such as SINDA/FLUINT (Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer/Fluid Integrator) is retained.

Panczak, Tim↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Damage modeling of power tower receiver tubes using the SRLIFE tool

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) molten-salt central receivers are subject to high, transient incident flux during daily operation. The resulting creep-fatigue damage impacts the receiver’s reliability and restricts the permissible incident flux distribution for a given receiver. This paper aims to reduce CSP plants’ levelized cost of electricity by developing a methodology to predict lifetime and identifies the primary damage mechanism (creep vs fatigue) for any given fluid temperature and temperature gradient. Results are presented in the form of a damage map that serves as a valuable operation guide and design tool. Damage maps can be used to reduce maintenance costs by improving reliability and reduce receiver capital costs by better utilizing the receiver area. FEA simulation and damage modeling of tubes subject to asymmetrical flux conditions is performed in the open-source receiver design tool srlife. Parametric studies are performed over a range of inner tube temperatures and thermal gradients for A230, 316H, 740H, A282, A617, and 800H high temperature alloys. Damage maps are presented for each alloy. A parametric, FEA-based methodology is presented for comparison of fatigue-creep ratios and prediction of tube lifetime based on the critical thermal operating conditions. Fatigue is found to be negligible compared to creep for almost every case. Here, this finding suggests that fatigue effects associated with cloud events are insignificant compared to creep at these high temperature operating conditions. Additionally, lifetime predictions identify thermal conditions where small changes in operating conditions can result in large changes in predicted lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

CAD-based Energy & Cost Models Prove Affordable Net Zero Energy Performance for WonderWindows + 24" On-center Framing

Windows are thermally the “weakest link” in the building envelope. Increasing the thermal resistance of windows can make buildings more energy efficient and reduce the cost of electricity needed for conditioning the building. The proper design and placement of framing can also help to reduce the thermal bridging that occurs near the window frame area. This study investigates the energy performance of multi-pane acrylic windows fitting 24" on-center framing. Initial parametric analysis is done for a single zone accessory dwelling unit (ADU). Then, an energy model was developed for three types of wood-framed buildings: townhomes, stacked flats and hotels. A whole building energy simulation is performed for each of these building types in hot-humid Houston, mixed-humid New York, and cold-humid Minneapolis climates. The results show up to a 39% reduction in heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) related electricity consumption for the cold climate compared to the Base case which has window and wall properties based on ASHRAE standard 90.1 2019. In the hot climate, a modest increase in electricity consumption was seen due to an increase in cooling electricity demand. The ADU achieved Net Zero Energy performance in all 3 Climate Zones despite having the highest exterior surface area-to-floor area ratio: the ADU also had the highest PV kW to floor area ratio compared to the other multi-story building types. The townhomes, hotel and stacked flats respectively met 73, 52 and 57 % of electrical use in Houston, 71, 48 and 56 % in New York, and 63, 40 and 53 % in Minneapolis from energy produced by rooftop solar. If 400 W solar panels are used instead of 320 W panel used for energy simulation, it is estimated that in the townhomes, hotel and stacked flats rooftop solar can meet 91, 65 and 71 % of electrical use in Houston; 89, 60 and 70% in New York, and 79, 50 and 66 % in Minneapolis. A preliminary evaluation of cost shows that such superior performance can potentially be achieved at less first cost with this 24"on-center solution than conventional construction. All the building types at the three locations used for simulation had net energy use intensity under 20 kBtu/sf/year with 320 W solar panel and under 17 kBtu/sf/year with 400 W solar panel. Further tailoring of building envelope R-values and window solar heat gain to particular Climate Zone locations for each building type shows promise in reducing the HVAC electricity use that comprises almost half of building energy use.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2000

Approximation Model Building for Reliability & Maintainability Characteristics of Reusable Launch Vehicles

This paper describes the development of parametric models for estimating operational reliability and maintainability (R&M) characteristics for reusable vehicle concepts, based on vehicle size and technology support level. A R&M analysis tool (RMAT) and response surface methods are utilized to build parametric approximation models for rapidly estimating operational R&M characteristics such as mission completion reliability. These models that approximate RMAT, can then be utilized for fast analysis of operational requirements, for lifecycle cost estimating and for multidisciplinary sign optimization.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS2013

Adaptive Sampling of Spatiotemporal Phenomena with Optimization Criteria

This work was designed to find a way to optimally (or near optimally) sample spatiotemporal phenomena based on limited sensing capability, and to create a model that can be run to estimate uncertainties, as well as to estimate covariances. The goal was to maximize (or minimize) some function of the overall uncertainty. The uncertainties and covariances were modeled presuming a parametric distribution, and then the model was used to approximate the overall information gain, and consequently, the objective function from each potential sense. These candidate sensings were then crosschecked against operation costs and feasibility. Consequently, an operations plan was derived that combined both operational constraints/costs and sensing gain. Probabilistic modeling was used to perform an approximate inversion of the model, which enabled calculation of sensing gains, and subsequent combination with operational costs. This incorporation of operations models to assess cost and feasibility for specific classes of vehicles is unique.

Chien, Steve A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

Cyr, Kelley↗
NASA NTRS2000

Solar Power System Options for the Radiation and Technology Demonstration Spacecraft

The Radiation and Technology Demonstration (RTD) Mission has the primary objective of demonstrating high-power (10 kilowatts) electric thruster technologies in Earth orbit. This paper discusses the conceptual design of the RTD spacecraft photovoltaic (PV) power system and mission performance analyses. These power system studies assessed multiple options for PV arrays, battery technologies and bus voltage levels. To quantify performance attributes of these power system options, a dedicated Fortran code was developed to predict power system performance and estimate system mass. The low-thrust mission trajectory was analyzed and important Earth orbital environments were modeled. Baseline power system design options are recommended on the basis of performance, mass and risk/complexity. Important findings from parametric studies are discussed and the resulting impacts to the spacecraft design and cost.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Journal Bearing Analysis Suite Released for Planetary Gear System Evaluation

Planetary gear systems are an efficient means of achieving high reduction ratios with minimum space and weight. They are used in helicopter, aerospace, automobile, and many industrial applications. High-speed planetary gear systems will have significant dynamic loading and high heat generation. Hence, they need jet lubrication and associated cooling systems. For units operating in critical applications that necessitate high reliability and long life, that have very large torque loading, and that have downtime costs that are significantly greater than the initial cost, hydrodynamic journal bearings are a must. Computational and analytical tools are needed for sufficiently accurate modeling to facilitate optimal design of these systems. Sufficient physics is needed in the model to facilitate parametric studies of design conditions that enable optimal designs. The first transient journal bearing code to implement the Jacobsson-Floberg-Olsson boundary conditions, using a mass-conserving algorithm devised by Professor Emeritus Harold Elrod of Columbia University, was written by David E. Brewe of the U.S. Army at the NASA Lewis Research Center1 in 1983. Since then, new features and improved modifications have been built into the code by several contributors supported through Army and NASA funding via cooperative agreements with the University of Toledo (Professor Ted Keith, Jr., and Dr. Desikakary Vijayaraghavan) and National Research Council Programs (Dr. Vijayaraghavan). All this was conducted with the close consultation of Professor Elrod and the project management of David Brewe.

Brewe, David E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gradient-Enhanced Reliability Analysis of Transonic Aeroelastic Flutter

Reliability computation for transonic aeroelastic systems is a challenging task, given the complex physical mechanisms involved, and broader challenges associated with computing small probabilities of failure/flutter. This paper demonstrates the use of four different reliability estimation tools, with a particular focus on tools that can utilize gradient information: the derivative of flutter boundaries with respect to random parametric inputs. Results are shown for two test cases: the AGARD 445.6 case and the Common Research Model, and the strength and weaknesses of each UQ tool are compared in terms of cost and accuracy. Two of the UQ tools used here require gradients as part of a search process, but the other two are sample-based, and are able to leverage the existence of gradients for improved performance.

Bret K Stanford↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗