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Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Space and Ground Telescopes
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Preliminary Error Characterization and Parametric Error Model for the Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Contract Extended Projected Profile Message
A critical component of Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) is the ability for a consistent and accurate 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) to be shared and synchronized between airborne and ground systems as well as amongst various ground automation systems. The Aeronautical Telecommunication Network—Baseline 2 (ATN-B2) standard defines the Extended Projected Profile (EPP) trajectory that can be sent via Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Contract (ADS-C) from an aircraft to ground automation. The EPP trajectory message contains a representation of the reference trajectory from an aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS). In this work, a set of scenarios were run in a high-fidelity aircraft and FMS simulation to perform an initial characterization of EPP trajectory errors under a given set of conditions. The parameters investigated were the route length, route type, wind magnitude error, wind direction error, and with and without a required time-of-arrival (RTA) constraint. In addition, linear regression was used to identify a set of EPP error models for the cross-track, vertical, and time errors.
Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescope
No abstract available
Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescope Assemblies
No abstract available
Parametric Cost Modeling of a Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Vehicle for Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Parametric Cost Modeling of a Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Vehicle for Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Variations of Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes
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A Parametric Battery Model for the Conceptual Design of Electric Aircraft
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State consistence of data-driven reduced order models for parametric aeroelastic analysis
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Linear Covariance Analysis Framework for Aerospace Vehicle Trajectory Modeling and Parametric Design.
Abstract not provided.
Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Stochastic Models with Parametric Uncertainty
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A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation
Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.
Meteoroid Engineering Model – Final Report
We developed a parametric model of the spatial distribution of sporadic meteoroids by taking their primary source to be short-period comets with aphelia less than 7 AU which showed to be the major source of dust released through the sublimation of cometary ices. We constrained the model to fit the observed distribution of particles deduced from the zodiacal light measurements of Helios I and II as well as Earth-based radio-meteor observations. We also considered the contribution to the sporadic meteor complex from long-period comets. An origin for the North and South Toroidal source of sporadic meteors is proposed and the results of calculations for the likely characteristics of asteroidal meteors are also presented. Predicted fluxes and radiant distributions of sporadic meteors in the region between Mercury and Mars are shown as well. We have also included the effects of the gravitational shielding and focusing of the planets and shown that flux enhancements of up to 70% are possible at some locations.
Approximation Model Building for Reliability & Maintainability Characteristics of Reusable Launch Vehicles
This paper describes the development of parametric models for estimating operational reliability and maintainability (R&M) characteristics for reusable vehicle concepts, based on vehicle size and technology support level. A R&M analysis tool (RMAT) and response surface methods are utilized to build parametric approximation models for rapidly estimating operational R&M characteristics such as mission completion reliability. These models that approximate RMAT, can then be utilized for fast analysis of operational requirements, for lifecycle cost estimating and for multidisciplinary sign optimization.
Habit–Dependent Vapor Growth Modulates Arctic Supercooled Water Occurrence
We present an analysis of long-term data collected at Utqiagvik, Alaska, to explore the impacts of cloud processes on the probability of finding supercooled water given cloud temperature, P(L|T), in the topmost unseeded liquid-bearing layers. P(L|T) has local minima at temperatures around –6°C and –15°C. Simulations using habit-evolving ice microphysics models suggest that these minima are the result of efficient vapor growth by non-isometric habits found at these temperatures. Here, we conclude that habit-dependent vapor growth of ice crystals modulates the macrophysical occurrence of supercooled water in polar clouds, the effect of which should be included in model parametrizations to avoid biases and/or error compensation. Our methodology is adaptable for spherical ice treatments implemented in models (example parametrizations provided), amenable for use with satellite measurements to give global impartial observational targets for model evaluations, and may allow empirical characterization of bulk responses to seeding and possibly secondary ice effects.