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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Improved constraints on hematite refractive index for estimating climatic effects of dust aerosols

Abstract Uncertainty in desert dust composition poses a big challenge to understanding Earth’s climate across different epochs. Of particular concern is hematite, an iron-oxide mineral dominating the solar absorption by dust particles, for which current estimates of absorption capacity vary by over two orders of magnitude. Here, we show that laboratory measurements of dust composition, absorption, and scattering provide valuable constraints on the absorption potential of hematite, substantially narrowing its range of plausible values. The success of this constraint is supported by results from an atmospheric transport model compared with station-based measurements. Additionally, we identify substantial bias in simulating hematite abundance in dust aerosols with current soil mineralogy descriptions, underscoring the necessity for improved data sources. Encouragingly, the next-generation imaging spectroscopy remote sensing data hold promise for capturing the spatial variability of hematite. These insights have implications for enhancing dust modeling, thus contributing to efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS1982

Estimation of distributed parameter systems

The estimation and control of large flexible space structures pose significant new control technology problems. One major problem area is the closed-loop stability of a structure that has been modeled with truncated modal dynamics. Stability problems arise due to the control design process beginning with a deficient model. This work provides the necessary conditions for the optimal estimation of infinite dimensional (partial-differential equation) systems. This approach can be particularly useful for initial control studies and for gaining considerable insight into what the optimal estimator for a truly infinite dimensional system should be. A detailed example of the estimation of the continuous shape of a string in tension is presented.

Schaechter, D. B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different datasets, i.e., 1) the unit generation dataset and 2) the system total inertia and headroom dataset, for the prediction of the frequency nadir. The training and testing datasets are generated through extensive generation scheduling simulations using Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MI-DAS) toolbox on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods perform well in predicting the nadir frequency of the system. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners yielding the best prediction accuracy in terms of four evaluation metrics.

data driven↗
NASA NTRS1992

A criterion for joint optimization of identification and robust control

A criterion for system identification is developed that is consistent with the intended used of the fitted model for modern robust control synthesis. Specifically, a joint optimization problem is posed which simultaneously solves the plant model estimate and control design, so as to optimize robust performance over the set of plants consistent with a specified experimental data set.

Bayard, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

Koren, I.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2020

In Search of a Cost-Effective Approach for Estimating Dam Passage Survival

Abstract Passage of downstream-migrating fishes through hydropower dams poses a management issue in rivers throughout the world. As such, regulations have been enacted at many locales to understand and limit fish losses by requiring dam passage survival estimation. However, limiting estimates of survival to the dam and immediate tailrace presents a challenge to researchers. In this study, two alternative release–recapture methods were used to estimate dam passage survival of juvenile salmonids through Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, Washington, in 2018. One approach, the virtual/paired-release (ViPRe) model, was extensively used in the Columbia–Snake River basin at federally operated hydroelectric dams during 2010–2014. This existing approach uses three releases of tagged smolts to isolate dam passage survival, defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone 1–2 km downstream of the dam. An alternative approach, the virtual release/dead-fish correction (ViRDCt) model, uses one live-release group paired with a release of dead tagged fish at the dam to estimate the same survival parameter. The alternative estimation approaches were tested on two spring out-migrating stocks, yearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, and on a summer out-migrating stock of subyearling Chinook Salmon. The alternative estimates for these stocks were all within 1 SE. However, the ViRDCt model produced survival estimates with SEs that were 59% smaller than those of the existing ViPRe model and did so using 42% fewer tagged fish and one less downstream acoustic detection array. Because of the reduced sample size, nearly US$540,000 less in tag costs and 4,000 fewer labor-hours were required to implement the ViRDCt model compared to the ViPRe model. As such, the ViRDCt model represents a cost-effective and precise approach to characterizing dam passage survival.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Wake-Vortex Hazards During Cruise

Even though the hazard posed by lift-generated wakes of subsonic transport aircraft has been studied extensively for approach and departure at airports, only a small amount of effort has gone into the potential hazard at cruise altitude. This paper reports on a studio of the wake-vortex hazard during cruise because encounters may become more prevalent when free-flight becomes available and each aircraft, is free to choose its own route between destinations. In order to address the problem, the various fluid-dynamic stages that vortex wakes usually go through as they age will be described along with estimates of the potential hazard that each stage poses. It appears that a rolling-moment hazard can be just as severe at cruise as for approach at airports, but it only persists for several minutes. However, the hazard posed by the downwash in the wake due to the lift on the generator aircraft persists for tens of minutes in a long narrow region behind the generating aircraft. The hazard consists of severe vertical loads when an encountering aircraft crosses the wake. A technique for avoiding vortex wakes at cruise altitude will be described. To date the hazard posed by lift-generated vortex wakes and their persistence at cruise altitudes has been identified and subdivided into several tasks. Analyses of the loads to be encounter and are underway and should be completed shortly. A review of published literature on the subject has been nearly completed (see text) and photographs of vortex wakes at cruise altitudes have been taken and the various stages of decay have been identified. It remains to study and sort the photographs for those that best illustrate the various stages of decay after they are shed by subsonic transport aircraft at cruise altitudes. The present status of the analysis and the paper are described.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The multi-cone model is a computational model for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. It is a direct descendant of the conical-domain model. A primary motivation for the development of this model is the need to find alternatives for modeling slant delays at low latitudes, where ionospheric behavior poses an acute challenge for GPS signal-delay estimates based upon the thin-shell model of the ionosphere.

Sparks, Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative imaging and automated fuel pin identification for passive gamma emission tomography

Compliance of member States to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is monitored through nuclear safeguards. The Passive Gamma Emission Tomography (PGET) system is a novel instrument developed within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) project JNT 1510, which included the European Commission, Finland, Hungary and Sweden. The PGET is used for the verification of spent nuclear fuel stored in water pools. Advanced image reconstruction techniques are crucial for obtaining high-quality cross-sectional images of the spent-fuel bundle to allow inspectors of the IAEA to monitor nuclear material and promptly identify its diversion. In this work, we have developed a software suite to accurately reconstruct the spent-fuel cross sectional image, automatically identify present fuel rods, and estimate their activity. Unique image reconstruction challenges are posed by the measurement of spent fuel, due to its high activity and the self-attenuation. While the former is mitigated by detector physical collimation, we implemented a linear forward model to model the detector responses to the fuel rods inside the PGET, to account for the latter. The image reconstruction is performed by solving a regularized linear inverse problem using the fast-iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm. We have also implemented the traditional filtered back projection (FBP) method based on the inverse Radon transform for comparison and applied both methods to reconstruct images of simulated mockup fuel assemblies. Higher image resolution and fewer reconstruction artifacts were obtained with the inverse-problem approach, with the mean-square-error reduced by 50%, and the structural-similarity improved by 200%. We then used a convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically identify the bundle type and extract the pin locations from the images; the estimated activity levels finally being compared with the ground truth. The proposed computational methods accurately estimated the activity levels of the present pins, with an associated uncertainty of approximately 5%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiparticle cumulant mapping for Coulomb explosion imaging: Calculations and algorithm

We present a versatile cumulant mapping algorithm for analyzing correlated particle emission, offering insights into complex electronic and nuclear dynamics. Recently, we have demonstrated the use of cumulant mapping to extract information-rich correlations between the momenta of multiple fragments produced in Coulomb explosion imaging experiments [C. Cheng et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 093001 (2023)]. We define cumulant mapping in terms of histograms, enabling fast computation of linear (additive) observables. However, applying the same algorithm to nonlinear (nonadditive) observables poses challenges, as the computation time of conventional estimators scales nonlinearly with data size. To overcome this, we develop estimators and an accompanying algorithm to enable computationally efficient estimation of the cumulant of interest. Comparisons of computation times and signal-to-noise ratios reveal the superior performance of our approach. This method is demonstrated on the (D+, D+, C+, O+) dissociation channel of CD 2 ⁢O 4+ produced in a strong-field ionization experiment. Additionally, Poisson statistics are used to simulate the two methods and provide insights into the efficiency of our algorithm. The proposed methodology unlocks efficient computation of cumulant mapping for a broader range of complex systems and observables, such as the laser pulse dependence of ionization dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining lattice QCD and phenomenological inputs on generalised parton distributions at moderate skewness

Abstract We present a systematic study demonstrating the impact of lattice QCD data on the extraction of generalised parton distributions (GPDs). For this purpose, we use a previously developed modelling of GPDs based on machine learning techniques fulfilling the theoretical requirements of polynomiality, a form of positivity constraint and known reduction limits. A special care is given to estimate the uncertainty stemming from the ill-posed character of the connection between GPDs and the experimental processes usually considered to constrain them, like deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS). Moke lattice QCD data inputs are included in a Bayesian framework to a prior model based on an Artificial Neural Network. This prior model is fitted to reproduce the most experimentally accessible information of a phenomenological extraction by Goloskokov and Kroll. We highlight the impact of the precision, correlation and kinematic coverage of lattice data on GPD extraction at moderate $$\xi $$ ξ which has only been brushed in the literature so far, paving the way for a joint extraction of GPDs.

Physics↗
NASA NTRS1976

A comparison of spacecraft penetration hazards due to meteoroids and manmade earth-orbiting objects

The ability of a typical double-walled spacecraft structure to protect against penetration by high-velocity incident objects is reviewed. The hazards presented by meteoroids are compared to the current and potential hazards due to manmade orbiting objects. It is shown that the nature of the meteoroid number-mass relationship makes adequate protection for large space facilities a conceptually straightforward structural problem. The present level of manmade orbiting objects (an estimated 10,000 in early 1975) does not pose an unacceptable risk to manned space operations proposed for the near future, but it does produce penetration probabilities in the range of 1-10 percent for a 100-m diameter sphere in orbit for 1,000 days. The number-size distribution of manmade objects is such that adequate protection is difficult to achieve for large permanent space facilities, to the extent that future restrictions on such facilities may result if the growth of orbiting objects continues at its historical rate.

Brooks, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

Spindler, Karlheinz↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating and Calibrating DER Model Parameters Using Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm in Renewable Rich Power Grid

The proliferation of inverter-based distributed energy resources (IBDERs) has increased the number of control variables and dynamic interactions, leading to new grid control challenges. For stability analysis and designing appropriate protection controls, it is important that IBDER models are accurate. This paper focuses on the accurate estimation and parameter calibration of DER_A, a recently proposed aggregated IBDER model. In particular, we focus on the parameters of the reactive power–voltage regulation module. We formulate the problem of parameter tuning as a non-linear least square minimization problem and solve it using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method. The LM method is primarily chosen due to its flexibility in adaptively selecting between the steepest descent and Gauss–Newton methods through a damping parameter. The LM approach is used to minimize the error between the actual measurements and the estimated response of the model. Further, the computational challenges posed by the numerical calculation of the Jacobian are tackled using a quasi-Newton root-finding approach. The proposed method is validated on a real feeder model in the northeastern part of the United States. The feeder is modeled in OpenDSS and the measurements thus obtained are fed to the DER_A model for calibration. The simulation results indicate that our approach is able to successfully calibrate the relevant model parameters quickly and with high accuracy, with a total sum of square error of 3.57 × 10 –7 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial communities in the liver and brain are informative for postmortem submersion interval estimation in the late phase of decomposition: A study in mouse cadavers recovered from freshwater

Introduction Bodies recovered from water, especially in the late phase of decomposition, pose difficulties to the investigating authorities. Various methods have been proposed for postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation and drowning identification, but some limitations remain. Many recent studies have proved the value of microbiota succession in viscera for postmortem interval estimation. Nevertheless, the visceral microbiota succession and its application for PMSI estimation and drowning identification require further investigation. Methods In the current study, mouse drowning and CO 2 asphyxia models were developed, and cadavers were immersed in freshwater for 0 to 14 days. Microbial communities in the liver and brain were characterized via 16S rDNA high-throughput sequencing. Results Only livers and brains collected from 5 to 14 days postmortem were qualified for sequencing. There was significant variation between microbiota from liver and brain. Differences in microbiota between the cadavers of mice that had drowned and those only subjected to postmortem submersion decreased over the PMSI. Significant successions in microbial communities were observed among the different subgroups within the late phase of the PMSI in livers and brains. Eighteen taxa in the liver which were mainly related to Clostridium_sensu_stricto and Aeromonas , and 26 taxa in the brain which were mainly belonged to Clostridium_sensu_stricto , Acetobacteroides , and Limnochorda , were selected as potential biomarkers for PMSI estimation based on a random forest algorithm. The PMSI estimation models established yielded accurate prediction results with mean absolute errors ± the standard error of 1.282 ± 0.189 d for the liver and 0.989 ± 0.237 d for the brain. Conclusions The present study provides novel information on visceral postmortem microbiota succession in corpses submerged in freshwater which sheds new light on PMSI estimation based on the liver and brain in forensic practice.

Wang, Linlin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗