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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI1991

Physical and Operational Status of the Photovoltaic Systems in the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca, One Year after Their Installation [Estado fisico y operativo de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en el municipio de Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca un ano despues de su instalacion]

In November 1990, an inspection visit was made to the residential lighting photovoltaic systems that had been installed approximately one year before in the rural communities of the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, in the State of Oaxaca. The main purpose of the visit was to evaluate the physical and operational status of these systems. The systems typically consist of a photovoltaic module with a capacity of 30 or 35 Watts, an automotive type battery, an indicator of the status of charge of the battery, 3 fluorescent lamps and the corresponding installation, including cables, connection or outlet box and switches. It can be seen that the systems are in good physical condition and do not show any signs of intentionally caused damage. However, the incidence of failures is higher than what had been expected; therefore the operational status of these systems is considered to be below a level that could be accepted, with a tendency to getting worse. The main problem that has been detected is the lack of automatic charge controllers. This problem has caused other important failures. Serious deficiencies were appreciated in the installations, which show evidence of the poor workmanship of the installers. The lack of system standardization is evident, both regarding the components and the installation. As a consequence, there are technical factors which indicate that the installed systems will keep deteriorating at a rate faster than normal, and will stop operating in a short time unless urgent preventive and corrective measures are taken. The attitude of the users with respect to the systems is generally positive. However, there are elements that make the correct operation and maintenance of these systems a very difficult task. The users did not receive any training regarding the best way to operate and take care of their systems, nor any other information in relation to their technical limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolution of Hardware and Philosophy of Emergency Response Actions on the International Space Station and Future Spacecrafts

Human spaceflight is dangerous for numerous reasons. This ranges from the dynamic environment of launching on a rocket, flying in space among the thousands and thousands pieces of space debris, to the hazards of re-entry & landing, as well as being surrounded by vehicle systems containing hazardous materials or gasses. In-flight emergencies fall into four categories: Rapid Depressurization, Fire, Toxic Spill, and Medical emergency. This paper will address the first three, which fall under the responsibility of the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) Systems flight control and engineering teams. It will review the evolution of the International Space Station’s emergency response philosophy, procedures, training, and equipment changes over the years. The International Space Station (ISS) emergency equipment has evolved over the last two decades of operations in many ways, but in some it has remained the same. The core actions the flight crew takes to ensure team safety, personal safety, vehicle safety, and equipment safety has not changed. However, the equipment and capabilities provided to them have. From early days of minimal capability when the ISS consisted of a few modules, to today’s 30,000 ft^3 vehicle with over a dozen isolatable segments. From use of positive pressure O2 masks, to the development of respirators. From a lack of procedures for a deadly ammonia leak scenario to a memorized response utilizing numerous atmosphere measurement systems. This paper will review all these various areas that fall under the umbrella of “on-board emergencies”. In addition, the comparison to the planned emergency operations on the Orion vehicle will be reviewed. The Orion vehicle differs from the ISS in that it has no isolatable volume, being approximately 2% the size of ISS, as well as not having a quick return to earth capability.

Barry Tobias↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-trained machine learning models for Lorentz transmission electron microscopy

Understanding the collective behavior of complex spin textures, such as lattices of magnetic skyrmions, is of fundamental importance for exploring and controlling the emergent ordering of these spin textures and inducing phase transitions. It is also critical to understand the skyrmion–skyrmion interactions for applications such as magnetic skyrmion-enabled reservoir or neuromorphic computing. Magnetic skyrmion lattices can be studied using in situ Lorentz transmission electron microscopy (LTEM), but quantitative and statistically robust analysis of the skyrmion lattices from LTEM images can be difficult. In this work, we show that a convolutional neural network, trained on simulated data, can be applied to perform segmentation of spin textures and to extract quantitative data, such as spin texture size and location, from experimental LTEM images, which cannot be obtained manually. This includes quantitative information about skyrmion size, position, and shape, which can, in turn, be used to calculate skyrmion–skyrmion interactions and lattice ordering. We apply this approach to segmenting images of Néel skyrmion lattices so that we can accurately identify skyrmion size and deformation in both dense and sparse lattices. The model is trained using a large set of micromagnetic simulations as well as simulated LTEM images. This entirely open-source training pipeline can be applied to a wide variety of magnetic features and materials, enabling large-scale statistical studies of spin textures using LTEM.

McCray, Arthur R. C. (ORCID:0000000160774698)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Wood, Lance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolution of Hardware and Philosophy of Emergency Response Actions on the International Space Station and Future Spacecrafts

Human spaceflight is dangerous for numerous reasons. This ranges from the dynamic environment of launching on a rocket, flying in space among the thousands and thousands pieces of space debris, to the hazards of re-entry & landing, as well as being surrounded by vehicle systems containing hazardous materials or gasses. In-flight emergencies fall into four categories: Rapid Depressurization, Fire, Toxic Spill, and Medical emergency. This paper will address the first three, which fall under the responsibility of the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) Systems flight control and engineering teams. It will review the evolution of the International Space Station’s emergency response philosophy, procedures, training, and equipment changes over the years. The ISS emergency equipment has evolved over the last two decades of operations in many ways, but in some it has remained the same. The core actions the flight crew takes to ensure team safety, personal safety, vehicle safety, and equipment safety has not changed. However, the equipment and capabilities provided to them have. From early days of minimal capability when the ISS consisted of a few modules, to today’s 30,000 ft^3 vehicle with over a dozen isolatable segments. From use of Russian gas masks to positive pressure O2 masks, to the development of respirators. From a lack of procedures for a deadly ammonia leak scenario to a memorized response utilizing numerous atmosphere measurement systems. This paper will review all these various areas that fall under the umbrella of “on-board emergencies”. In addition, the comparison to the planned emergency operations on the Orion vehicle will be reviewed. The Orion vehicle differs from the ISS in that it has no isolatable volume, being approximately 2% the size of ISS, as well as not having a quick return to earth capability.

Emergency↗
NASA NTRS1981

Orthostatic fluid-electrolyte and endocrine responses in fainters and nonfainters

The responses to orthostasis of fluid-electrolyte and endocrine indicators in persons subject and not subject to fainting during tilting are investigated, along with the effects of heat acclimatization and physical training on those responses. Plasma volume and electrolytes and plasma vasopressin and renin activity were determined in tilt-table tests conducted before and after an eight-day period of daily heat acclimation during exercise at 50% maximal oxygen uptake at 40 C, or a control period of exercise at 24 C. Half of the 10 subjects in the study, regardless of exercise regime, showed improved orthostatic reactions in the second tilting test, related to increases in post-tilt plasma volume and potassium concentration, particularly in the nonfainters. In the first test, plasma renin activity is observed to increase fivefold and plasma vasopressin 50 times after the transition from the supine to the orthostatic positions; the respective increases were reduced by 50 and 75% in the second test. The fainters also exhibit a greater increase in vasopressin and a lower increase in renin activity upon tilting than the nonfainters. Results indicate the orthostatic-induced vasopressin increase to be related to volume control independent of renin activity.

Shvartz, E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗
NASA NTRS2023

Electronic Nose Development and Preliminary Human Breath Testing for Rapid, Non-Invasive COVID-19 Detection

We adapted an existing, spaceflight-proven, robust “electronic nose” (E-Nose) that uses an array of electrical resistivity-based nanosensors mimicking aspects of mammalian olfaction to conduct on-site, rapid screening for COVID-19 infection by measuring the pattern of sensor responses to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled human breath. We built and tested multiple copies of a hand-held prototype E-Nose sensor system, composed of 64 chemically sensitive nanomaterial sensing elements tailored to COVID-19 VOC detection; data acquisition electronics; a smart tablet with software (App) for sensor control, data acquisition and display; and a sampling fixture to capture exhaled breath samples and deliver them to the sensor array inside the E-Nose. The sensing elements detect the combination of VOCs typical in breath at parts-per-billion (ppb) levels, with repeatability of 0.02% and reproducibility of 1.2%; the measurement electronics in the E-Nose provide measurement accuracy and signal-to-noise ratios comparable to benchtop instrumentation. Preliminary clinical testing at Stanford Medicine with 63 participants, their COVID-19-positive or COVID-19-negative status determined by concomitant RT-PCR, discriminated between these two categories of human breath with a 79% correct identification rate using “leave-one-out” training-and-analysis methods. Analyzing the E-Nose response in conjunction with body temperature and other non-invasive symptom screening using advanced machine learning methods, with a much larger database of responses from a wider swath of the population, is expected to provide more accurate on-the-spot answers. Additional clinical testing, design refinement, and a mass manufacturing approach are the main steps toward deploying this technology to rapidly screen for active infection in clinics and hospitals, public and commercial venues, or at home.

COVID-19↗
NASA NTRS1978

Transfer of training on manual control systems differing in short period frequency and damping characteristics

Each of four groups of 16 subjects was trained on one of four compensatory tracking tasks that differed with regard to short period natural frequency and damping characteristics. After completion of the training sessions, the members of each group either transferred to a task on which they had not been trained or continued with their original task. Analysis of the training data indicated that relative task difficulty was largely determined by system damping which, however, had little effect on the amount of transfer during the transfer trials. The effect of system frequency was essentially reversed, and a marked interaction between training and transfer frequencies was observed in the transfer data. Similar results were obtained both with relative error scores and transinformation scores. Positive transfer was exhibited by most of the groups when they transferred to tasks on which they had not been trained.

Lincoln, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Operation Evaluation of the VEGGIE Food Production System in the Habitat Demonstration Unit

The 2010 Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) of the VEGGIE Food Production System in the Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) was the first operational evaluation of salad crop production technology in a NASA analog test. A systematic evaluation of rooting media and nutrient delivery systems were evaluated for three lettuce cultivars that have shown promise as candidates for a surface based food production system. The VEGGIE nutrient delivery system worked well, was able to be maintained by multiple operators with a minimum of training, and supported excellent lettuce growth for the duration of the test. A Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) evaluation was performed using ProSantm as sanitation agent prior to consumption was approved, and the crew was allowed to consume the lettuce grown using the VEGGIE light cap and gravity based nutrient delivery system at the completion of the 14-day DRAT field test. The DRAT field test validated the crew operations; Growth of all lettuce cultivars was excellent. The operational DRAT field testing in the HDU identified light quality issues related to morphology and pigment development that will need to be addressed through additional testing. Feedback from the crew, ground support personnel, and human factors leads was uniformly positive on the psychological value of having the crop production system in the excursion module. A number of areas have been identified for future work, to minimize the "footprint" of the Food Production system through creative use of unused wall and floor space in the unit.

Stutte, Gary W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Autonomous proximity operations using machine vision for trajectory control and pose estimation

A machine vision algorithm was developed which permits guidance control to be maintained during autonomous proximity operations. At present this algorithm exists as a simulation, running upon an 80386 based personal computer, using a ModelMATE CAD package to render the target vehicle. However, the algorithm is sufficiently simple, so that following off-line training on a known target vehicle, it should run in real time with existing vision hardware. The basis of the algorithm is a sequence of single camera images of the target vehicle, upon which radial transforms were performed. Selected points of the resulting radial signatures are fed through a decision tree, to determine whether the signature matches that of the known reference signatures for a particular view of the target. Based upon recognized scenes, the position of the maneuvering vehicle with respect to the target vehicles can be calculated, and adjustments made in the former's trajectory. In addition, the pose and spin rates of the target satellite can be estimated using this method.

Cleghorn, Timothy F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Operational Evaluation of VEGGIE Food Production System in the Habitat Demonstration Unit

The 2010 Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) of the VEGGIE Food Production System in the Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) was the first operational evaluation of salad crop production technology in a NASA analog test. A systematic evaluation of rooting media and nutrient delivery systems were evaluated for three lettuce cultivars that have shown promise as candidates for a surface based food production system. The VEGGIE nutrient delivery system worked well, was able to be maintained by multiple operators with a minimum of training, and supported excellent lettuce growth for the duration of the test. A Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) evaluation was performed using ProSan(tm) as sanitation agent prior to consumption was approved, and the crew was allowed to consume the lettuce grown using the VEGGIE light cap and gravity based nutrient delivery system at the completion of the 14-day DRAT field test. The DRAT field test validated the crew operations; Growth of all lettuce cultivars was excellent. The operational DRAT field testing in the HDU identified light quality issues related to morphology and pigment development that will need to be addressed through additional testing. Feedback from the crew, ground support personnel, and human factors leads was uniformly positive on the psychological value of having the crop production system in the excursion module. A number of areas have been identified for future work, to minimize the "footprint" of the Food Production system through creative use of unused wall and floor space in the unit.

Stutte, Gary W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Application of Lean Thinking Principles and Kaizen Practices for the Successful Development and Implementation of the Ares I-X Flight Test Rocket and Mission

On October 28, 2009 the Ares I-X flight test rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center and flew its suborbital trajectory as designed. The mission was successfully completed as data from the test, and associated development activities were analyzed, transferred to stakeholders, and well documented. Positive lessons learned from Ares I-X were that the application of lean thinking principles and kaizen practices are effective in streamlining development activities. Ares I-X, like other historical rocket development projects, was hampered by technical, cost, and schedule challenges and if not addressed boldly could have resulted in cancellation of the test. The mission management team conducted nine major meetings, referred to as lean events, across its elements to assess plans, procedures, processes, requirements, controls, culture, organization, use of resources, and anything that could be changed to optimize schedule or reduce risk. The preeminent aspect of the lean events was the focus on value added activities and the removal or at least reduction in non-value activities. Trained Lean Six Sigma facilitators assisted the Ares I-X developers in conducting the lean events. They indirectly helped formulate the mission s own unique methodology for assessing schedule. A core team was selected to lead the events and report to the mission manager. Each activity leveraged specialized participants to analyze the subject matter and its related processes and then recommended alternatives and solutions. Stakeholders were the event champions. They empowered and encouraged the team to succeed. The keys to success were thorough preparation, honest dialog, small groups, adherence to the Ares I-X ground rules, and accountability through disciplined reporting and tracking of actions. This lean event formula was game-changing as demonstrated by the success of Ares I-X. It is highly recommended as a management tool to help develop other complex systems efficiently. The key benefits for Ares I-X were obtaining unambiguous schedule margin, defining enabling options for risk reduction, and most importantly a stronger more unified team.

Askins, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Application of Lean Thinking Principles and Kaizen Practices for the Successful Development and Implementation of the Ares I-X Flight Test Rocket and Mission

On October 28, 2009 the Ares I-X flight test rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center and flew its suborbital trajectory as designed. The mission was successfully completed as data from the test, and associated development activities were analyzed, transferred to stakeholders, and well documented. A positive lesson learned from Ares I-X was that the application of lean thinking principles and kaizen practices was very effective in streamlining development activities. Ares I-X, like other historical rocket development projects, was hampered by technical, cost, and schedule challenges and if not addressed boldly could have resulted in cancellation of the test. The mission management team conducted nine major meetings, referred to as lean events, across its elements to assess plans, procedures, processes, requirements, controls, culture, organization, use of resources, and anything that could be changed to optimize schedule or reduce risk. The preeminent aspect of the lean events was the focus on value added activities and the removal or at least reduction in non-value added activities. Trained Lean Six Sigma facilitators assisted the Ares I-X developers in conducting the lean events. They indirectly helped formulate the mission s own unique methodology for assessing schedule. A core team was selected to lead the events and report to the mission manager. Each activity leveraged specialized participants to analyze the subject matter and its related processes and then recommended alternatives and solutions. Stakeholders were the event champions. They empowered and encouraged the team to succeed. The keys to success were thorough preparation, honest dialog, small groups, adherence to the Ares I-X ground rules, and accountability through disciplined reporting and tracking of actions. This lean event formula was game-changing as demonstrated by Ares I-X. It is highly recommended as a management tool to help develop other complex systems efficiently. The key benefits for Ares I-X were obtaining unambiguous schedule margin, defining enabling options for risk reduction, and most importantly a stronger more unified team.

Askins, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effects of Convective Transport of Solute and Impurities on Defect-Causing Kinetics Instabilities

For in-situ studies of the formation and evolution of step patterns during the growth of protein crystals, we have designed and assembled an experimental setup based on Michelson interferometry with the surface of the growing protein crystal as one of the reflective surfaces. The crystallization part of the device allows optical monitoring of a face of a crystal growing at temperature stable within 0.05 C in a developed solution flow of controlled direction and speed. The reference arm of the interferometer contains a liquid-crystal element that allows controlled shifts of the phase of the interferograms. We employ an image processing algorithm which combines five images with a pi/2 phase difference between each pair of images. The images are transferred to a computer by a camera capable of capturing 6-8 frames per second. The device allows data collection data regarding growth over a relatively large area (approximately .3 sq. mm) in-situ and in real time during growth. The estimated dept resolution of the phase shifting interferometry is about 100 A. The lateral resolution, depending on the zoom ratio, varies between 0.3 and 0.6 micrometers. We have now collected quantitative results on the onset, initial stages and development of instabilities in moving step trains on vicinal crystal surfaces at varying supersaturation, position on the facet, crystal size and temperature with the proteins ferritin, apoferritin and thaumatin. Comparisons with theory, especially with the AFM results on the molecular level processes, see below, allow tests of the rational for the effects of convective flows and, as a particular case, the lack thereof, on step bunching.

Vekilov, Peter G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A First Look at the Upcoming SISO Space Reference FOM

Simulation is increasingly used in the space domain for several purposes. One example is analysis and engineering, from the mission level down to individual systems and subsystems. Another example is training of space crew and flight controllers. Several distributed simulations have been developed for example for docking vehicles with the ISS and for mission training, in many cases with participants from several nations. Space based scenarios are also used in the "Simulation Exploration Experience", SISO's university outreach program. We have thus realized that there is a need for a distributed simulation interoperability standard for data exchange within the space domain. Based on these experiences, SISO is developing a Space Reference FOM. Members of the product development group come from several countries and contribute experiences from projects within NASA, ESA and other organizations. Participants represent government, academia and industry. The first version will focus on handling of time and space. The Space Reference FOM will provide the following: (i) a flexible positioning system using reference frames for arbitrary bodies in space, (ii) a naming conventions for well known reference frames, (iii) definitions of common time scales, (iv) federation agreements for common types of time management with focus on time stepped simulation, and (v) support for physical entities, such as space vehicles and astronauts. The Space Reference FOM is expected to make collaboration politically, contractually and technically easier. It is also expected to make collaboration easier to manage and extend.

Crues, Edwin↗
NASA NTRS2012

CloudSat Anomaly Recovery and Operational Lessons Learned

In April 2011, NASA's pioneering cloud profiling radar satellite, CloudSat, experienced a battery anomaly that placed it into emergency mode and rendered it operations incapable. All initial attempts to recover the spacecraft failed as the resultant power limitations could not support even the lowest power mode. Originally part of a six-satellite constellation known as the "A-Train", CloudSat was unable to stay within its assigned control box, posing a threat to other A-Train satellites. CloudSat needed to exit the constellation, but with the tenuous power profile, conducting maneuvers was very risky. The team was able to execute a complex sequence of operations which recovered control, conducted an orbit lower maneuver, and returned the satellite to safe mode, within one 65 minute sunlit period. During the course of the anomaly recovery, the team developed several bold, innovative operational strategies. Details of the investigation into the root-cause and the multiple approaches to revive CloudSat are examined. Satellite communication and commanding during the anomaly are presented. A radical new system of "Daylight Only Operations" (DO-OP) was developed, which cycles the payload and subsystem components off in tune with earth eclipse entry and exit in order to maintain positive power and thermal profiles. The scientific methodology and operational results behind the graduated testing and ramp-up to DO-OP are analyzed. In November 2011, the CloudSat team successfully restored the vehicle to consistent operational collection of cloud radar data during sunlit portions of the orbit. Lessons learned throughout the six-month return-to-operations recovery effort are discussed and offered for application to other R&D satellites, in the context of on-orbit anomaly resolution efforts.

cloud profiling radar satellite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗