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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Modeling of Power Conversion Stages for an Exascale Supercomputer

In this paper a power conversion and energy consumption model for an exascale supercomputer is investigated. Power consumption, energy loss and efficiency are derived for the 27.2 MW liquid-cooled, centralized, High Performance Computing (HPC) power system, which is supplied directly from the 480 V three-phase mains. Two energy conversion stages are analyzed, measured and modeled. The model is developed in order to be adapted and implemented in a digital twin platform utilizing a Resource Allocator and Power Simulator (RAPS) module. RAPS enables estimation of potential energy savings in the direct AC power supply architecture via both conventional rectifier load sharing (commonly used in HPC systems), as well as smart rectifier load sharing. Moreover, besides the direct AC supply architecture analysis, the full direct DC supply architecture with with 1 kV DC bus were also studied. Comparison of 10 hour time frame operation of the system, with direct 480 V AC voltage supply with conventional and smart load sharing and medium dc voltage supply were done. For the direct AC supply architecture, with conventional and smart load sharing the predicted power loss was approximately 840 kW and 820 kW, respectively and the predicted total system efficiency was 92.87% and 93.05%, respectively. For the direct DC supply architecture with the 1000 V DC supply bus power loss was approximately 340 kW and the predicted total system efficiency was 97.02%.

Wojda, Rafal↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Elastic Properties of Materials from Electronic Charge Density Using 3D Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Materials representation plays a key role in machine learning-based prediction of materials properties and new materials discovery. Currently both graph and three-dimensional (3D) voxel representation methods are based on the heterogeneous elements of the crystal structures. Here, we propose to use electronic charge density (ECD) as a generic unified 3D descriptor for materials property prediction with the advantage of possessing close relation with the physical and chemical properties of materials. We developed an ECD-based 3D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for predicting the elastic properties of materials, in which CNNs can learn effective hierarchical features with multiple convolving and pooling operations. Extensive benchmark experiments over 2170 $Fm\bar3m$ face-centered-cubic materials show that our ECD-based CNNs can achieve good performance for elasticity prediction. Especially, our CNN models based on the fusion of elemental Materials-Agnostic Platform for Informatics and Exploration features and ECD descriptors achieved the best fivefold cross-validation performance. More importantly, we showed that our ECD-based CNN models can achieve significantly better extrapolation performance when evaluated over nonredundant data sets, where there are few neighbor-training samples around test samples. As an additional validation, we evaluated the predictive performance of our models on 329 materials of space group $Fm\bar3m$ by comparing to density functional theory calculated values, which shows a better prediction power of our model for bulk modulus than shear modulus. Because of the unified representation power of ECD, it is expected that our ECD-based CNN approach can also be applied to predict other physical and chemical properties of crystalline materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using leaf and stomatal traits to predict biomass production and water use efficiency in Populus

Climate change is reshaping ecosystems, driving plants to adapt through leaf-trait plasticity that reflects strategies for growth and water use. Predicting biomass production and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) remains challenging because of genetic, taxonomic, and environmental variability. Here, we used eastern cottonwood and Populus hybrids as a model system to test whether easily measurable leaf traits can serve as reliable predictors of performance, and whether adding stomatal and biochemical traits improves predictive power. Across two field sites in Mississippi, leaf mass per area (LMA), biomass production, iWUE, leaf area, and foliar nitrogen ( N %) differed significantly among taxa and sites, while other traits were conserved. Factorial analysis of mixed data (FAMD) revealed distinct clustering of taxa and sites, indicating coordinated variation among leaf and stomatal traits. Pairwise correlations highlighted fundamental trade-offs, with biomass positively related to LMA and petiole length but negatively associated with iWUE, N %, and carbon isotopic ratios (δ 13 C). Leaf temperature and leaf angle varied among taxa and were significantly correlated with LMA and petiole length, suggesting mechanisms of heat dissipation and leaf movability that link simple traits to gas exchange and productivity. Weighted multiple linear regression models explained 80%–91% of variation in biomass production and iWUE. Models using only LMA, petiole length, and stomatal metrics performed nearly as well as those incorporating N %, and δ 13 C, with complex traits adding approximately 10% explanatory power. These results demonstrate that simple morphological traits capture integrated functional trade-offs, while complex traits refine predictions. This tiered approach provides an efficient framework for selecting high-yielding, water-efficient genotypes of Populus and other hardwood species, offering practical pathways to enhance carbon uptake and iWUE under climate change.

biomass production↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained offline using a historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other policies with static operating reserves.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration: Preprint

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions, i.e., the reserve requirement, renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained off-line using historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other operating reserve determination methods.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

Semicoherent symmetric quantum processes: Theory and applications

Discovering pragmatic and efficient approaches to construct ε-approximations of quantum operators such as real (imaginary) time-evolution propagators in terms of the basic quantum operations (gates) is challenging. Prior ε-approximations are invaluable, in that they enable the compilation of classical and quantum algorithm modeling of, e.g., dynamical and thermodynamic quantum properties. In parallel, symmetries are powerful tools concisely describing the fundamental laws of nature; the symmetric underpinnings of physical laws have consistently provided profound insights and substantially increased predictive power. In this work, we consider the interplay between the ε-approximate processes and the exact symmetries in a semicoherent context—where measurements occur at each logical clock cycle. Here we draw inspiration from Pascual Jordan's groundbreaking formulation of nonassociative, but commutative, symmetric algebraic form. Our symmetrized formalism is then applied in various domains such as quantum random walks, real-time evolutions, variational algorithm ansatzes, and efficient entanglement verification. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding and greater appreciation of how symmetries can be used to control quantum dynamics in settings where coherence is a limited resource.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2004

Wireless Network Simulation in Aircraft Cabins

An electromagnetic propagation prediction tool was used to predict electromagnetic field strength inside airplane cabins. A commercial software package, Wireless Insite, was used to predict power levels inside aircraft cabins and the data was compared with previously collected experimental data. It was concluded that the software could qualitatively predict electromagnetic propagation inside the aircraft cabin environment.

Beggs, John H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic Analysis of Condition-Monitoring-Based Predictive Maintenance in Power Plants under Market Elasticity

Condition-monitoring-based predictive maintenance can increase the power plant availability by preventing forced outages. However, the actual on-stream time depends on market elasticity and dynamics, which are affected by cost and penetration of other power generation technologies. This paper develops a systematic approach for the economic analysis of investment in condition monitoring technologies with due consideration of market elasticity. Focus is on corrosion monitoring in coal-fired power plants (CFFPs) since corrosion in high-temperature coal-fired boilers is a leading cause of equipment failure. Investment in sensor networks for measuring corrosion and operating conditions like metal temperature and concentrations of O 2 and SO 2 is investigated. The unscented Kalman filter is used to estimate corrosion in the waterwall section of the boiler under multiple sensor networks. Electricity produced by CFPPs in the future in the U.S. due to changes in availability under market elasticity is studied. Sensitivity of the incremental net present value to factors like the number, type, and cost of sensors is analyzed.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integral Nuclear Data and Benchmarking Needs for Fusion Energy Systems

Fusion energy systems are currently being designed and optimized using radiation transport codes. To deal with the unique environment inside a fusion-based system, many of these designs incorporate novel materials able to withstand the high radiation fields, ensure adequate cooling and thermal protection, and produce tritium. Validation plays a vital role in building trust in the predictive power of these models and computational methods. Validation of a code consists of modeling documented real-world experiments and comparing the code-predicted response to the measured response. Adequate validation requires measured responses from real-world experiments, also known as integral data, that mimic the system being designed, including materials, impinging radiation, and temperature, among other variables. The most trusted integral data are experimental responses that have been through a rigorous benchmarking process that develops a recommended computational model and evaluates all experimental uncertainties. Finally, there are a few research groups around the world that have been producing integral data for fusion applications, but a substantial investment is needed to address the unique validation needs of the fusion community.

Fusion↗
DOE OSTI2024

A modeling pipeline to relate municipal wastewater surveillance and regional public health data

As COVID-19 becomes endemic, public health departments require improved passive indicators, which are independent of voluntary testing data, to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in local communities. Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater has the potential to be a powerful passive indicator. However, connecting measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA to community prevalence is challenging. We have developed a generalized methodology to improve the predictive power of wastewater measurements and applied it to data collected from treatment plants in the Chicago area. We built and compared a set of multi-linear regression models, which incorporate pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) as a population biomarker, Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as a recovery control, and wastewater system flow rate into a corrected estimate for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. For our data, models with BCoV performed better than those with PMMoV, but all model estimates of prevalence significantly improved correlation compared to doing no correction. We also investigate the utility of RNA measurements in wastewater as a leading indicator of COVID-19 trends. We do this in a rolling manner for corrected wastewater data and for other prevalence indicators, and statistically compare the temporal relationship between new increases in the wastewater data and those in other prevalence indicators. We find that wastewater trends often lead other COVID-19 indicators in predicting new surges.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting of in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy

Abstract Forecasting models are a central part of many control systems, where high-consequence decisions must be made on long latency control variables. These models are particularly relevant for emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-guided instrumentation, in which prescriptive knowledge is needed to guide autonomous decision-making. Here we describe the implementation of a long short-term memory model (LSTM) for forecasting in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) data, one of the richest analytical probes of materials and chemical systems. We describe key considerations for data collection, preprocessing, training, validation, and benchmarking, showing how this approach can yield powerful predictive insight into order-disorder phase transitions. Finally, we comment on how such a model may integrate with emerging AI-guided instrumentation for powerful high-speed experimentation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Equivalence of Large-Scale Power Systems Based on Boundary Measurements

Parallel computing helped speed up many tasks that can be done independently. The advance in gaming industry did not produce a technology that helps the power industry to reduce the computation time for dynamic simulation in individual cases. To perform faster than real-time simulation for the purpose of predicting power system dynamic trajectory, power industry continues to struggle to reduce the system size and simulation time of large-scale power systems while keeping its dynamic behavior under various disturbances. There is also an acute need for real-time dynamic model reduction as more renewables enter the generation mix with dramatic changes in the generation outputs. All existing model reduction solutions are based on having access to a detailed dynamic model of the system. The system changes by the minutes, dynamic models are only updated annually. To solve this problem, wide-area measurements obtained by the phasor measurement unit (PMU) at the boundaries between the reduced system and the study system is used to represent the external area. An artificial neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is established to perform the mapping of the measurement to the external equivalent model. Here the external area is regarded as a black-box. Model reduction studies are conducted on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) under various types of contingencies, by using a co-simulation approach between PSS/E and MATLAB. The results look very promising and will be discussed in this paper.

Tong, Ning↗
DOE OSTI2021

A model investigation of the impact of lower hybrid wave scattering angle on current drive profile in EAST and Alcator C-Mod

Lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) is beneficial for developing a steady-state operation scenario in a tokamak. This paper conducts a modeling investigation to identify an optimum rotation angle of the initial lower hybrid perpendicular (to the background magnetic field $\overrightarrow{B}$) wavevector for best matching the experimental RF current profile. It is hypothesized that central RF power deposition widely observed in the present-day LHCD experiments arises from wave scattering by turbulence. In a standard model without considering such interactions, the predicted power deposition profile is generally broad with off-axis peaking, not in agreement with experimental observations. A heuristic approach is adopted by introducing a spectral broadening mechanism by modifying the initial orientation of the perpendicular wavevector. The ray-tracing/Fokker–Planck solver GENRAY/CQL3D is utilized within the python-based π-scope framework. A focus is given to identify the perpendicular wavenumber orientation angle with respect to the magnetic surface normal vector at the initial ray location. Our modeling study shows that rotating the perpendicular wavevector in such a way as to increase the initial poloidal component is effective in reproducing the centrally peaked current profile observed in normal shear plasmas on both EAST and C-Mod. These waves can readily be absorbed to the central plasma, which reduces the sensitivity of the power deposition profile to a slight change of the plasma condition. The same approach is also found to help broaden the off-axis power deposition profile in a reverse-shear EAST plasma, leading to a better agreement with the experiment. The results presented here suggest that spectral modification arising from edge density fluctuations in a tokamak may need to be considered in understanding wave propagation and absorption. A further experimental and theoretical/modeling study is vital as a reverse approach is adopted in this study. Finally, our work suggests that mitigation or control measures are critical for parasitic effects occurring on the first pass in a reactor regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗