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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivat

Ranaudo, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Trajectory Errors in an Automated Terminal-Area Environment

A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to document the trajectory errors associated with use of an airplane's Flight Management System (FMS) in conjunction with a ground-based ATC automation system, Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) in the terminal area. Three different arrival procedures were compared: current-day (vectors from ATC), modified (current-day with minor updates), and data link with FMS lateral navigation. Six active airline pilots flew simulated arrivals in a fixed-base simulator. The FMS-datalink procedure resulted in the smallest time and path distance errors, indicating that use of this procedure could reduce the CTAS arrival-time prediction error by about half over the current-day procedure. Significant sources of error contributing to the arrival-time error were crosstrack errors and early speed reduction in the last 2-4 miles before the final approach fix. Pilot comments were all very positive, indicating the FMS-datalink procedure was easy to understand and use, and the increased head-down time and workload did not detract from the benefit. Issues that need to be resolved before this method of operation would be ready for commercial use include development of procedures acceptable to controllers, better speed conformance monitoring, and FMS database procedures to support the approach transitions.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Linear and Geometrically Nonlinear Structural Shape Sensing from Strain Data

An aircraft’s shape must be measured during flight to implement active shape controls such as active trim shape, divergence, and sonic boom controls. A basis function method for linear as well as geometrically nonlinear structural shape sensing is proposed in this study. Basis functions can be mode shapes, linear static deformation shapes, and/or geometrically nonlinear static deformation shapes. The proposed basis function method is validated using a high-aspect-ratio wing, a swept test plate, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration X-59 aircraft. A large structural deformation of a high-aspect-ratio wing is successfully captured using the proposed basis function method with less than 0.3%prediction error at the wing-tip section. The basis function method gives excellent deformation prediction, even with stress concentration. Performance of the basis functions is compared using the X-59 stabilator sample case. In most of the sample load cases, static deformations give a better correlation with the target deformation than do mode shapes. Wing shape sensing with sparse strain data are also demonstrated in this study using the X-59 aircraft. Predicted structural deformations match reasonably with the target deformations, even without strain gauges on some structural components. The predicted deformations have a good match with the target deformations.

Static Deformation↗
NASA NTRS2024

Artemis I Optical Navigation System Performance

This paper summarizes the assessment of the Optical Navigation Flight Test Objective (FTO) during the flight of Artemis I. The Optical Navigation (OpNav) System was tested under a variety of range, target, and lighting conditions to evaluate the performance compared to the pre-flight predicted error models. In general, OpNav performed very well – successfully processing over a thousand images of starfields, Earth, and Moon. The performance of the algorithm when processing Moon images matched the pre-flight expected error models. The errors when processing Earth images were notably higher than the pre-flight models predicted, however this was found to be due to an over-estimation of the atmosphere bias used in the tuning of the algorithm. After the bias was re-tuned and the images reprocessed, performance significantly improved.

GNC↗
DOE OSTI2022

An improved pressure drop correlation for modeling localized effects in a pebble bed reactor

Advances in the development of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) has created a desire for accurate and cost-effective simulation tools for design scoping studies and safety analysis. The current state-of-the-art for these simulations is the use of porous media models, although these models rely on correlations to capture the effects of flow features that are not explicitly modeled. One of the areas where correlation accuracy is currently lacking is in the near-wall region of the bed. In this region, the presence of the wall causes the pebbles to pack more orderly, drastically changing the geometry and flow behavior in this region. This work presents a new generalized pressure drop correlation for PBRs based on the KTA equation. A high-to-low methodology is applied, where large eddy simulation (LES) is performed on two beds of 1568 and 1700 pebbles to generate a high-fidelity dataset. The flow fields are then averaged in time and separated into concentric rings of 0.05 D peb width. Average porosity, velocity, and pressure drop are extracted for each ring and the friction and form losses are calculated. The Reynolds number range for this study is 625–10,000, and thus the form losses are dominant over the friction losses. The form losses across the rings are investigated, and a correction term for the form loss calculation is determined and applied to the KTA equation to drastically improve the capability of modeling localized porosity effects in a porous media code. Finally, the improved correlation reduces near-wall velocity prediction error from over 50% with the KTA correlation to around 5%. Agreement in pressure drop prediction between LES and porous media simulations is also improved.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Core Body Temperature Predictions Using Metabolic Energy Expenditure and Heart Rate During Simulated Extravehicular Activity

Long duration spaceflight missions will require crew to become more autonomous in conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) without direct communication with Mission Control for biomedical support. To enable such autonomy, we are developing a Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) as a collection of key physiology domains that drive EVA crew capabilities and workloads. One model component of CSRM is human thermal regulation. In this paper, customized development of a baseline model to predict core body temperature is presented using physiology inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. The model development dataset included a baseline study where participants (n=6, equal male and female) performed a 5-hour EVA in a two-part session while wearing a hybrid space suit simulator (HS3). The first session included an end-to-end EVA traversing 1500 meters to a geology site and traversing back to a habitat conducting geology, payload relocation, and maintenance operations every 500 meters. The second session included standalone tasks of a 2000-meter traverse followed by geology tasks. Thermal measures of core body temperature, local skin temperature, liquid cooling garment temperature, heart rate, and metabolic rate were collected through the test duration. Multiple regression was used to build a linear equation to predict core body temperature from inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. Heat storage was calculated via predicted core body temperature plus LCG and skin temperatures. The model was tested against a dataset from a pressurized suited test (n=6, equal male and female) in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) conducting similar end-to-end EVA and standalone tasks. Predicted error of the model against the raw test cases was 0.2±0.15 °C. The baseline prediction of core body temperature using heart rates and metabolic rates allows for simple real-time tracking from data collected in-flight to monitor crew consumables and thermal flight limits during EVA.

Bradley Hoffmann↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1987

A further analysis for the minimum-variance deconvolution filter performance

Chi and Mendel (1984) analyzed the performance of minimum-variance deconvolution (MVD). In this correspondence, a further analysis of the performance of the MVD filter is presented. It is shown that the MVD filter performs like an inverse filter and a whitening filter as SNR goes to infinity, and like a matched filter as SNR goes to zero. The estimation error of the MVD filter is colored noise, but it becomes white when SNR goes to zero. This analysis also conects the error power-spectral density of the MVD filter with the spectrum of the causal-prediction error filter.

Chi, Chong-Yung↗
NASA NTRS2016

Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China 2004-2013

Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5(particulate matter (is) less than 2.5 ) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data. We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1 deg resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations. We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations. The overall model cross-validation R(sup 2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM(sub 2.5) concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(sup 2) = 0.73), regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(sup 2) = 0.79), regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 micro-g/cu cm between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 micro-g/cu cm between 2008 and 2013. Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.

satellite remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting Understanding of Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Cu(111): Competing Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer Reaction Mechanisms Revealed by Embedded Correlated Wavefunction Theory

Copper (Cu) electrodes, as the most efficacious of CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) electrocatalysts, serve as prototypes for determining and validating reaction mechanisms associated with electrochemical CO 2 reduction to hydrocarbons. As in situ electrochemical mechanism determination by experiments is still out of reach, such mechanistic analysis typically is conducted using density functional theory (DFT). The semilocal exchange-correlation (XC) approximations most often used to model such catalysis unfortunately engender a basic error: predicting the wrong adsorption site for CO (a key CO 2 RR intermediate) on the most ubiquitous facet of Cu, namely, Cu(111). This longstanding inconsistency casts lingering doubt on previous DFT predictions of the attendant CO 2 RR kinetics. Here, we apply embedded correlated wavefunction (ECW) theory, which corrects XC functional error, to study the CO 2 RR on Cu(111) via both surface hydride (*H) transfer and proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). We predict that adsorbed CO (*CO) reduces almost equally to two intermediates, namely, hydroxymethylidyne (*COH) and formyl (*CHO) at –0.9 V vs the RHE. In contrast, semilocal DFT approximations predict a strong preference for *COH. With increasing applied potential, the dominance of *COH (formed via potential-independent surface *H transfer) diminishes, switching to the competitive formation of both *CHO and *COH (both formed via potential-dependent PCET). Furthermore, our results also demonstrate the importance of including explicitly modeled solvent molecules in predicting electron-transfer barriers and reveal the pitfalls of overreliance on simple surface *H transfer models of reduction reactions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

Kelkar, Atul G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Manual control displays for a four-dimensional landing approach

Six instrument rated pilots flew a STOL fixed base simulator to study the effectiveness of three displays for a four dimensional approach. The three examined displays were a digital readout of forward position error, a digital speed command, and an analog display showing forward position error and error prediction. A flight director was used in all conditions. All test runs were for a typical four dimensional approach in moderate turbulence that included a change in commanded ground speed, a change in flight path angle, and two standard rate sixty degree turns. Use of the digital forward position error display resulted in large overshoot in the forward position error. Some type of lead (rate or prediction information) was shown to be needed. The best overall performance was obtained using the speed command display. It was demonstrated that curved approaches can be flown with relative ease.

Silverthorn, J. T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multistage classification of multispectral Earth observational data: The design approach

An algorithm is proposed which predicts the optimal features at every node in a binary tree procedure. The algorithm estimates the probability of error by approximating the area under the likelihood ratio function for two classes and taking into account the number of training samples used in estimating each of these two classes. Some results on feature selection techniques, particularly in the presence of a very limited set of training samples, are presented. Results comparing probabilities of error predicted by the proposed algorithm as a function of dimensionality as compared to experimental observations are shown for aircraft and LANDSAT data. Results are obtained for both real and simulated data. Finally, two binary tree examples which use the algorithm are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedure.

Bauer, M. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Atmospheric response to variations in sea surface temperature

An extended range prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data to test the sensitivity of the model to sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a two-week forecast period. The use of an initial observed SST field in place of the climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a significant effect on the predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection computed over areas where moderately large warm SST anomalies are found. However, there was no detectable positive effect of the SST anomaly field on forecast quality. The influence of the SST anomalies on the daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential is relatively insignificant up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and is no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea level pressure and 500-mb height predicted by the model, appear to be similarly insensitive to anomalies of sea surface temperature.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗