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At least 145 records · Page 8

Safety Performance of Airborne Separation: Preliminary Baseline Testing

The Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) study is a suite of Monte Carlo simulation experiments designed to analyze and quantify safety behavior of airborne separation. This paper presents results of preliminary baseline testing. The preliminary baseline scenario is designed to be very challenging, consisting of randomized routes in generic high-density airspace in which all aircraft are constrained to the same flight level. Sustained traffic density is varied from approximately 3 to 15 aircraft per 10,000 square miles, approximating up to about 5 times today s traffic density in a typical sector. Research at high traffic densities and at multiple flight levels are planned within the next two years. Basic safety metrics for aircraft separation are collected and analyzed. During the progression of experiments, various errors, uncertainties, delays, and other variables potentially impacting system safety will be incrementally introduced to analyze the effect on safety of the individual factors as well as their interaction and collective effect. In this paper we report the results of the first experiment that addresses the preliminary baseline condition tested over a range of traffic densities. Early results at five times the typical traffic density in today s NAS indicate that, under the assumptions of this study, airborne separation can be safely performed. In addition, we report on initial observations from an exploration of four additional factors tested at a single traffic density: broadcast surveillance signal interference, extent of intent sharing, pilot delay, and wind prediction error.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗

Spectral Band Characterization for Hyperspectral Monitoring of Water Quality

A method for selecting the set of spectral characteristics that provides the smallest increase in prediction error is of interest to those using hyperspectral imaging (HSI) to monitor water quality. The spectral characteristics of interest to these applications are spectral bandwidth and location. Three water quality constituents of interest that are detectable via remote sensing are chlorophyll (CHL), total suspended solids (TSS), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Hyperspectral data provides a rich source of information regarding the content and composition of these materials, but often provides more data than an analyst can manage. This study addresses the spectral characteristics need for water quality monitoring for two reasons. First, determination of the greatest contribution of these spectral characteristics would greatly improve computational ease and efficiency. Second, understanding the spectral capabilities of different spectral resolutions and specific regions is an essential part of future system development and characterization. As new systems are developed and tested, water quality managers will be asked to determine sensor specifications that provide the most accurate and efficient water quality measurements. We address these issues using data from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and a set of models to predict constituent concentrations.

Vermillion, Stephanie C.↗

Lumped parameter analysis of a stringer reinforced plate excited by band limited noise

The maximum root-mean-square response of a square clamped plate, subjected to a stationary random excitation, was determined both theoretically and empirically. For the tests, a 40 x 40 x 1/4 aluminum sheet was milled out to provide a thin waffle plate with 9 panels. The plate was acoustically excited, with the frequency range limited between 25 Hz and 500 Hz. The root-mean-square power of the random excitations, 149 decibels, was nearly constant for all natural frequencies of the plate system. Strain gage readings at 14 points were plotted as power spectral densities and root-mean-square displacements. A modal damping ratio matrix was determined from the response curves. Damping ratios were found to be a function of frequency, but not of location on the plate. For comparisons with the theoretical response, the plate was subdivided into 14 modes and anlayzed as a damped, lumped parameter system by use of an approximate normal-mode method. This method gave the best predictions of the power spectral densities for the lower frequencies. That prediction errors increased for the higher frequencies is attributed to improper assumptions for mass distribution and the insufficient number of lumped mass points.

Bilyeu, D. J.↗

Status of input design for aircraft parameter identification

Results are presented on the design of aircraft inputs (i.e. elevator, rudder and aeleron deflection time histories) to identify aircraft stability and control derivatives from flight test data. The problem is first reduced to an optimization problem with differential and integral constraints. The criteria used are either expressed in terms of the Cramer-Rao lower bound on the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates or in terms of the maximum prediction error variance. Both time-domain longitudinal and lateral dynamics of C-8 and Jet Star aircrafts and comparison with doublet type inputs are made.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Kalman filter divergence and aircraft motion estimators

Kalman filters designed for many aerospace systems turn out to be unsatisfactory. The estimate errors become large compared to the errors predicted by the theory ('divergence'). One of the principal causes of this failure is that the system model contains states or modes that are undisturbed by the modeled process noise, and are neutrally stable (NS). One cure for such problems is periodic restarting of a time-varying Kalman filter. Other cures include minimum variance observers with eigenvalue constraints, added noise, pole-shifting, and destabilization. Several examples are given, including effective time-invariant estimators for the longitudinal and lateral motions of an airplane where several NS modes are undisturbed by wind gusts. An interpretation of these estimators as a 'strapdown IMU' without accelerometers, gimbaled gyros, or servos is given.

Bryson, A. E., Jr.↗

A note on the diurnal averaging of aeronomical models

An approximate technique for diurnally time-averaging atmospheric photochemical-dynamical models which eliminates the need for a detailed numerical resolution of sunrise and sunset transitions is developed. The scheme is equivalent to scaling certain chemical rate constants and photodissociation coefficients by appropriate aeronomical factors. To calculate the scaling factors, diurnal variations are parameterized with a step-function behavior, assuming that each species has a constant day-time and night-time concentration whose ratio can be determined by analyzing the chemical interactions occurring after sunset. The solution accounts for the effects of night-time reactions on the 24 h average values of species abundances, and on the average daily rates of the catalytic processes consuming ozone in the stratosphere. The accuracy of the technique is demonstrated by comparing its predictions to those of a full diurnal simulation; typically, the precision is better than 10%. By contrast, it is shown that the use of some other well-known computational schemes can result in significantly larger predictive errors.

Turco, R. P.↗

Precision orbit computations for Starlette

The Starlette satellite, launched in February 1975 was designed to minimize the effects of nongravitational forces and to obtain the highest possible accuracy for laser range measurements. Analyses of the first four months of laser tracking data from nine stations have confirmed the stability of the orbit and the precision to which the satellite's position can be established. Initial orbit computations using the GSFC GEM - 7 gravity model produced rms fits of about 8 to 10 meters for arc lengths of 5 days. After tailoring a gravity model specifically to Starlette, the rms fits for the 5 day arcs were reduced significantly to the 1 to 2 meter level. An rms fit of 4.3 meters was obtained for a 90 day arc. Five day arcs overlapped by 2.5 days showed rms satellite position differences generally less than 2 meters. Prediction errors at the end of two months were less than 30 milliseconds.

Marsh, J. G.↗

Natural sampling strategy

A natural stratum-based sampling scheme and the aggregation procedures for estimating wheat area, yield, and production and their associated prediction error estimates are described. The methodology utilizes LANDSAT imagery and agrophysical data to permit an improved stratification in foreign areas by ignoring political boundaries and restratifying along boundaries that are more homogeneous with respect to the distribution of agricultural density, soil characteristics, and average climatic conditions. A summary of test results is given including a discussion of the various problems encountered.

Hallum, C. R.↗

A fast, exact code for scattered thermal radiation compared with a two-stream approximation

A two-stream accuracy study for internally (thermal) driven problems is presented by comparison with a recently developed 'exact' adding/doubling method. The resulting errors in external (or boundary) radiative intensity and flux are usually larger than those for the externally driven problems and vary substantially with the radiative parameters. Error predictions for a specific problem are difficult. An unexpected result is that the exact method is computationally as fast as the two-stream approximation for nonisothermal media.

Cogley, A. C.↗

Application of maximum-entropy spectral estimation to deconvolution of XPS data

A comparison is made between maximum-entropy spectral estimation and traditional methods of deconvolution used in electron spectroscopy. The maximum-entropy method is found to have higher resolution-enhancement capabilities and, if the broadening function is known, can be used with no adjustable parameters with a high degree of reliability. The method and its use in practice are briefly described, and a criterion is given for choosing the optimal order for the prediction filter based on the prediction-error power sequence. The method is demonstrated on a test case and applied to X-ray photoelectron spectra.

Vasquez, R. P.↗

Prediction of Earth rotation and polar motion

Based on the analysis of the polar motion behavior, the possibility of predicting polar motion up to one year in advance was found. Comparing these predicted polar coordinates with the observed ones (smoothed), the root mean square (rms) of the differences is about 0.02 seconds. The differences of the relative polar motion are much smaller. For any time interval of 20 to 30 days throughout the whole year, the rms of the relative polar motion differences is about 0.01 second. Compared with the best available VLBI results (from 1977 to 1980), the rms of pred. to obs. is 0.013 seconds, and the relative rms (for time intervals less than two months) is 0.008 seconds (here the observed data is unsmoothed). It appears that 80 to 90% of the polar motion is composed of the stable, predictable Chandler and annual terms. The UT1-UTC has more complicated changes than polar motion making it difficult to find a satisfactory method of long term prediction. So far the rms prediction error is 0.0023 s for up to 30 days.

Zhu, S. Y.↗

Comparison of Optimum Interpolation and Cressman Analyses

The objective of this investigation is to develop a state-of-the-art optimum interpolation (O/I) objective analysis procedure for use in numerical weather prediction studies. A three-dimensional multivariate O/I analysis scheme has been developed. Some characteristics of the GLAS O/I compared with those of the NMC and ECMWF systems are summarized. Some recent enhancements of the GLAS scheme include a univariate analysis of water vapor mixing ratio, a geographically dependent model prediction error correlation function and a multivariate oceanic surface analysis.

Baker, W. E.↗

Comparison of Optimum Interpolation and Cressman Analyses

The development of a state of the art optimum interpolation (O/I) objective analysis procedure for use in numerical weather prediction studies was investigated. A three dimensional multivariate O/I analysis scheme was developed. Some characteristics of the GLAS O/I compared with those of the NMC and ECMWF systems are summarized. Some recent enhancements of the GLAS scheme include a univariate analysis of water vapor mixing ratio, a geographically dependent model prediction error correlation function and a multivariate oceanic surface analysis.

Baker, W. E.↗

A fast approach to identification using deconvolution

In this paper, we propose a fast approach to impulse response and noise-variance identification for a finite-order, linear, time-invariant, single-input/single-output system, whose input driving noise is white (stationary or nonstationary) and measurement noise is stationary, white and Gaussian. Our algorithm is an iterative block component method that includes two stages, deconvolution and prediction-error identification. Experiences with our method indicate that it works well and saves about an order of magnitude in computation. Analyses and examples are given in this paper to support this claim.

Chi, C.-Y.↗