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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Expanded verification and validation studies of hypersonic aerodynamics with multiple physics-fidelity models

Hypersonic aerothermodynamics is an important domain of modern multiphysics simulation. The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories to predict aerodynamic properties for compressible flows from a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations with momentum-energy integral technique (MEIT), and modified Newtonian aerodynamics with flat-plate boundary layer (MNA+FPBL) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities, as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification activities on the MNA+FPBL model build on previous work by focusing on the viscous portion of the model. Viscous quantities of interest are compared against those from an analytical solution for flat-plate, inclined-plate, and cone geometries. The code verification methodology for the MEIT model is also presented. Test setup and results of code verification tests on the laminar and turbulent models within MEIT are shown. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies on simulations that model the HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel experiments. These experiments are used for validation of all model fidelities. A thorough validation comparison with prediction error and uncertainty is also presented. Three additional HIFiRE-1 experimental runs are simulated in this study, and the solution verification and validation work examines the effects of the associated parameter changes on model performance. Finally, a study is presented that compares the computational costs and fidelities from each of the different models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRCNS US-France Research Proposal: Collaborative Research: Encoding reward expectation in Drosophilia

The fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster has been a valuable model for investigating the genetic and neural bases that underlie learning and memory. Early and most current studies use basic behavior conditioning protocols to study learning in controlled laboratory settings. More recently, the ability to transgenically manipulate many of the brain neurons in the fruit fly with exquisite specificity, and the recent knowledge of the synaptic ‘connectome’ of the fruit fly brain, makes these animals almost unique as a comprehensive model for studies of learning, memory and motivated behavior. In fact, the connectome has revealed many types of new connections that had until now been overlooked. Within this context, the thesis of this proposal is that studies of learning and memory will be greatly enhanced by using more sophisticated means for evaluating memory representations, such as have been developed in vertebrates, and combining those studies with information from the connectome guided by computational modelling. We propose to push beyond the boundaries of existing conditioning protocols for fruit flies to investigate more complex memory representations. In particular, we will investigate the function of reinforcement pathways in relation to the absence of expected reinforcement. More specifically, we propose a series of experiments designed to investigate the memory representations in fruit flies when an expected consequence of a Conditioned Stimulus (CS) fails to occur. Although studies have evaluated how this failure can establish extinction memory for the CS, our studies will go beyond studying extinction. Specifically, we predict that in Drosophila when a CS is associated with a failed expectation of an appetitive food reinforcement it will acquire aversive value, and vice versa for a failed expectation of an aversive reinforcer. We combine these studies with manipulations of reinforcement pathways in the CNS inspired from the connectome, iteratively knitted in with established computational models. Intellectual Merit: The concept of reinforcement expectation and incentive contrast have been influential in the development of studies of associative learning in mammals. These questions are particularly challenging to answer in vertebrates because they require exquisite cellular, temporal, and genetic specificity of experimental manipulations. The recent development of work with identified neurons and their connectomes makes the larval and adult fly brains ripe as models for pushing our understanding of neural bases for these higher- order conditioning phenomena. Broader Impacts: Public health: These analyses and the conceptual framework of prediction error processing underlying them have a profound impact on our understanding of reinforcement-related behavior in humans, including monetary rewards and the mnemonic consequences of traumatic experiences, and for pathologies of the dopamine reinforcement system. Educational: This project will provide interdisciplinary training for postdoctoral researchers, Ph.D. and undergraduate students. The PIs will act as co-supervisors or mentors of students working in the different labs via face-to-face and internet-based technologies. We will also work with ASU’s award-winning Ask- A-Biologist program. This is an online science program designed to enrich the learning experiences of students of all ages and to provide classroom material for use by K-12 teachers. We will develop an extension of a game developed under a prior NSF award, and the new game will include modules to teach K-12 students about how insects learn. We will also integrate into the AAB site a program developed by a collaborator (B Gerber) at the Leibniz Institut für Neurobiologie, Magdeburg, and now in use in schools in Germany, to teach K-12 students how to train animals using the fruit fly larval learning paradigm. Underrepresented groups: All PIs will work with their university offices of Academic Diversity and Equal Opportunity for reaching underrepresented students.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transformers and Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning for GenIV Reactor Temperature Time Series Forecasting

Automated monitoring of the coolant temperature can enable autonomous operation of generation IV reactors (GenIV), thus reducing their operating and maintenance costs. Automation can be accomplished with machine learning (ML) models trained on historical sensor data. However, the performance of ML usually depends on the availability of large amount of training data, which is difficult to obtain for GenIV, as this technology is still under development. We propose the use of transfer learning (TL), which involves utilizing knowledge across different domains, to compensate for this lack of training data. TL can be used to create pre-trained ML models with data from small-scale research facilities, which can then be fine-tuned to monitor GenIV reactors. In this work, we develop pre-trained Transformer and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks by training them on temperature measurements from thermal hydraulic flow loops operating with water and Galinstan fluids at room temperature at Argonne National Laboratory. The pre-trained models are then fine-tuned and re-trained with minimal additional data to perform predictions of the time series of high temperature measurements obtained from the Engineering Test Unit (ETU) at Kairos Power. The performance of the LSTM and Transformer networks is investigated by varying the size of the lookback window and forecast horizon. The results of this study show that LSTM networks have lower prediction errors than Transformers, but LSTM errors increase more rapidly with increasing lookback window size and forecast horizon compared to the Transformer errors.

LSTM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Is the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is a continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a discussion of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). The paper demonstrated how the typical method of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the real world. Instead of relying on textbook methods, it is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This work uses a simulation to solve for the model of the world, and is compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes were removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing, and comparisons will be shown showing which method is more accurate and under what conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Tools Set for Natural Gas Fuel Cell System Design

This study is focusing on leveraging the system design tools set for the next-generation solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) based natural gas fuel cell (NGFC) system. Conventionally, system design and optimization of NGFC systems rely heavily on traditional reduced order model (ROM) techniques and designers’ experience level. For overcoming the technical barriers of system design, multiple multi-physics models and machine learning (ML) tools have been utilized to automate the conceptual design process and enhance the reliability of solutions for the NGFC system. The proposed tools set includes a physics-informed ML tool for automated ROM construction that leverages advances in deep neural networks to significantly reduce ROM prediction error for the NGFC power island compared to traditional approaches. The constructed physics-informed ML ROM can be used in system design, and optimization tools set Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Process Systems Engineering (PSE) framework. The tools set also provides a user-friendly graphic user interface built within Jupyter Notebooks, and the complete tools set is open-source public available.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Convolutional Neural Network Classifier for Data Starved Spectra - 20199

The Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University is exploring the utility of machine learning in augmenting its mobile radiation surveying platforms, which are currently being developed as means to survey depleted uranium contaminated areas in support of remediation and decommissioning efforts. Mobile survey platforms provide a means to efficiently scan large areas of interest while reducing human exposure to radiation and other hazards. The survey platforms can also be used for scanning for any gamma emitting isotope in addition to depleted uranium. The spectral data that the platforms collect may be data starved with relatively low counts and poorly defined spectral features depending on the speed of the platforms and scintillation detector selection. Such data-starved spectra are difficult to use for isotope identification, requiring advanced knowledge of the possible radionuclides that could be present and environmental factors that could attenuate signals or introduce background noise. These factors in combination with the volume of survey data increases the time it takes to perform analysis of survey data when the source type is unknown. There are a number of algorithms in the field of machine learning that can be used to classify data that would be challenging and time-consuming for a human to identify. Supervised machine learning algorithms train models based on extensive amounts of human-labeled training data. Once sufficiently trained, these models can be used to quickly make high-fidelity predictions on new data. Convolutional neural networks are machine learning algorithms that excel in learning representations of 'shapes'. They do this by taking numerical input data and convolving them with spatial feature detectors referred to as filters. These filters are incrementally adjusted to reduce the prediction error on the data during the backpropagation step of training. Discussed in this paper is the development of a convolutional neural network classifier (CNNC) that can utilize spectral survey data for source discrimination and isotope identification. Bench-top laboratory experiments data using LaBr{sub 3}(Ce) scintillation detectors were used to train and evaluate the performance of the developed CNNC. The CNNC is capable of discriminating a variety of gamma emitting source types, differentiating different forms of uranium (depleted vs. natural), and estimating the amount of uranium for a known geometry. The discussed CNNC may be useful in scenarios where survey systems are deployed in situations where hazardous radioactive material maybe present, but the type is unknown. When used in remediation applications the CNNC can be used to screen-out false positives, helping reduce remediation costs. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Learning Approach to Wireless Outdoor Heatmap Construction using Deep Gaussian Process

We present a novel Bayesian learning approach to outdoor radio heatmap construction utilizing deep Gaussian process (GP). The proposed approach employs a two-layer hierarchy which consists of two cascaded Gaussian processes that are capable of modeling more complex input-output relations than standard single-layer Gaussian processes. Since deriving the exact model likelihood is challenging, a lower bound is optimized instead so that gradient descent-based methods can be performed to find out the optimal model parameters. Typically, inducing points are used in GPs to facilitate low-rank approximation of covariance (kernel) matrices for computation speedup. However, the inaccuracy induced by inducing points can accumulate when stacking multiple layers of GP which may hinder the performance of deep GP. Moreover, since inducing points need to be learned, having them at all layers of deep GP also incurs computational burden. To overcome the above challenges, in contrast to the canonical deep GP model, we use a modified architecture where a full standard GP resides in the first layer and inducing points are only introduced for the second layer. This modified architecture strikes a balance between model accuracy and training complexity. In the proposed model, the noise parameter of the first GP layer is also eliminated to improve the training efficiency as the noise parameter at the output of the second layer suffices to model the uncertainty in the output. The proposed approach is evaluated on real-world datasets, in the form of location-Received Signal Strength (RSS) pairs, collected from the Platform for Open Wireless Data-driven Experimental Research (POWDER) located at the campus of the University of Utah. Experiment results show that the proposed approach can achieve smaller prediction errors on various training and testing data configurations than DNN-based and GP-based methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

SZ3: A Modular Framework for Composing Prediction-Based Error-Bounded Lossy Compressors

Today's scientific simulations require a significant reduction of data volume because of extremely large amounts of data they produce and the limited I/O bandwidth and storage space. Here, error-bounded lossy compression has been considered one of the most effective solutions to the above problem. In practice, however, the best-fit compression method often needs to be customized or optimized in particular because of diverse characteristics in different datasets and various user requirements on the compression quality and performance. In this paper, we address this issue with a novel modular, composable compression framework named SZ3. Our contributions are four-folds. (1) We develop SZ3 which features an innovative modular abstraction for the prediction-based compression framework, such that compression modules can be plugged in easily to create new compressors based on characteristics of data and user requirements. (2) We create a new compression pipeline by SZ3 for GAMESS data, which significantly improves the compression ratios over state-of-the-art compressors. (3) We develop an adaptive compression pipeline by SZ3 for APS data with minimal efforts, which leads to the best rate-distortion among all existing error-bounded lossy compressors for any bit-rate. (4) We compare the sustainability of SZ3 with leading error-bounded prediction-based compressors, and then demonstrate the necessity of diverse pipelines by integrating and evaluating several compression pipelines on diverse scientific datasets from multiple disciplines. Experiments show that SZ3 incurs very limited overhead in compressor integration and our customized compression pipelines lead to up to 20% improvement in compression ratios under the same data distortion, when compared with the best existing approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Designed Training Sets to Optimize Multivariate Regression Models for Pr, Nd, and Nitric Acid Using Spectrophotometry

Chemometric regression models were developed for the quantification of praseodymium (Pr, 0–1000 µg/mL), neodymium (Nd, 0–1000 µg/mL), and nitric acid (HNO 3 , 0.1–5 M) using spectrophotometry. Designed calibration sets were composed of 20 samples each: 10 model points and 10 lack-of-fit (LOF) points. The D-optimal designs effectively minimized the number of samples required to build models, and each design resulted in similar prediction performance, suggesting that statistical design of experiments can provide a reliable framework for selecting training set samples in three-variable systems. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were validated against a one-factor-at-a-time validation set composed of 125 samples (three variables, five levels). The top PLS-1 models resulted in average percent root mean square error of prediction error values of 3.5%, 1.7%, and 1.2% for Pr(III), Nd(III), and HNO 3 , respectively. Power set augmentations of the model and LOF samples were investigated to optimize the number of training set samples. PLSR models built using just required model points (10) had similar predictive capabilities as models including the LOF points (20) but with fewer samples. The number of validation samples was also varied systematically to learn how many samples are needed to validate regression models. This work addresses long-standing questions in the field of chemometrics to help make this approach amenable to the near-real-time quantification of hazardous species in remote settings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗