Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A predictive model for failure properties of thermoset resins

A predictive model for the three-dimensional failure behavior of engineering polymers has been developed in a recent NASA-sponsored research program. This model acknowledges the underlying molecular deformation mechanisms and thus accounts for the effects of different chemical compositions, crosslink density, functionality of the curing agent, etc., on the complete nonlinear stress-strain response including yield. The material parameters required by the model can be determined from test-tube quantities of a new resin in only a few days. Thus, we can obtain a first-order prediction of the applicability of a new resin for an advanced aerospace application without synthesizing the large quantities of material needed for failure testing. This technology will effect order-of-magnitude reductions in the time and expense required to develop new engineering polymers.

Caruthers, James M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience

The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.

microgrid↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of Computational Docking into Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

Cancer is a heterogeneous disease in that tumors of the same histology type can respond differently to a treatment. Anti-cancer drug response prediction is of paramount importance for both drug development and patient treatment design. Although various computational methods and data have been used to develop drug response prediction models, it remains a challenging problem due to the complexities of cancer mechanisms and cancer-drug interactions. To better characterize the interaction between cancer and drugs, we investigate the feasibility of integrating computationally derived features of molecular mechanisms of action into prediction models. Specifically, we add docking scores of drug molecules and target proteins in combination with cancer gene expressions and molecular drug descriptors for building response models. The results demonstrate a marginal improvement in drug response prediction performance when adding docking scores as additional features, through tests on large drug screening data. We discuss the limitations of the current approach and provide the research community with a baseline dataset of the large-scale computational docking for anti-cancer drugs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Model Predictive Control Approach for In-Flight Acoustic Constraint Compliance

Vehicle noise remains one of the major barriers to public acceptance of Urban Air Mobility class aircraft. This work focuses on motion planning for aircraft in noise-sensitive areas. A nonlinear Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control law is used to generate a finite horizon trajectory that satisfies acoustic level constraints at a set of (three-dimensional) observer locations. The MPPI framework places no restrictions on the class of state-dependent cost functionals that can be employed, making it well-suited for use with sophisticated acoustic models and metrics, in addition to dynamic and mission-relevant constraints. The model predictive control architecture is also suitable for implementation in a real-time application. A simulation example demonstrates the ability of the controller to modify the flight trajectory in order to satisfy acoustic constraints at multiple measurement locations.

acoustically-aware vehicle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Model Predictive Control Approach for In-Flight Acoustic Constraint Compliance

Vehicle noise remains one of the major barriers to public acceptance of Urban Air Mobility-class aircraft. This work focuses on motion planning for aircraft in noise-sensitive areas. A nonlinear Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control law is used to generate a finite-horizon trajectory that satisfies acoustic level constraints at a set of (three-dimensional) observer locations. The MPPI framework places no restrictions on the class of state-dependent cost functionals that can be employed, making it well-suited for use with sophisticated acoustic models and metrics, in addition to dynamic and mission-relevant constraints. The model predictive control architecture is also suitable for implementation in a real-time application. A simulation example demonstrates the ability of the controller to modify the flight trajectory in order to satisfy acoustic constraints at multiple measurement locations.

acoustically-aware vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2025

HP-FLEX: Field demonstration of the semantics-driven configuration of a Model Predictive Control system to make heat pumps flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo↗
DOE OSTI2025

HP-FLEX: Field Demonstration of the Semantics-Driven Configuration of a Model Predictive Control System to Make Heat Pumps Flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo↗
NASA NTRS2020

Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model for Both Open Ocean and Coastal Waters

Remote sensing of global ocean color is a valuable tool for understanding the ecology and biogeochemistry of the worlds oceans, and provides critical input to our knowledge of the global carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change. Ocean polarized reflectance contains information about the constituents of the upper ocean euphotic zone, such as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), sediments, phytoplankton, and pollutants. In order to retrieve the information on these constituents, remote sensing algorithms typically rely on radiative transfer models to interpret water color or remote-sensing reflectance; however, this can be resource-prohibitive for operational use due to the extensive CPU time involved in radiative transfer solutions. In this work, we report a fast model based on machine learning techniques, called Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model (NNRPM), which can be used to predict ocean bidirectional polarized reflectance given inherent optical properties of ocean waters. This supervised model is trained using a large volume of data derived from radiative transfer simulations for coupled atmosphere and ocean systems using the successive order of scattering technique (SOS-CAOS). The performance of the model is validated against another large independent test dataset generated from SOS-CAOS. The model is able to predict both polarized and unpolarized reflectances with an absolute error (AE) less than 0.004 for 99% of test cases. We have also shown that the degree of linear polarization (DoLP) for unpolarized incident light can be predicted with an AE less than 0.002 for 99% of test cases. In general, the simulation time of SOS-CAOS depends on optical depth, and required accuracy. When comparing the average speeds of the NNRPM against the SOS-CAOS model for the same parameters, we see that the NNRPM is able to predict the Ocean BRDF 6000 times faster than SOS-CAOS. Both ultraviolet and visible wavelengths are included in the model to help differentiate between dissolved organic material and chlorophyll in the study of the open ocean and the coastal zone. The incorporation of this model into the retrieval algorithm will make the retrieval process more efficient, and thus applicable for operational use with global satellite observations.

radiative transfer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental validation of model predictive control for solid oxide fuel cells

Here, this paper presents implementation of a model predictive controller (MPC) for an experimental solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system. The MPC controller is based on a gain-scheduled predictor with block-oriented structure that can capture important non-linear effects while still keeping the computational complexity low enough to meet real time control requirements. Experimental results show the MPC is able to regulate the SOFC cathode outlet temperature in the face of startup transients and input perturbations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

A data-driven model predictive control (MPC) was developed to enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) nuclear microreactors. The MPC can proactively respond to potential disturbances of HP microreactors using three approaches for system identifications: linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory units. We present numerical results of data-driven MPCs to control the temperatures of selected HPs in a 37-HP test article. Our results show qualitatively that all data-driven MPCs produced similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with small errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating causal‐based feature selection for fuel property prediction models

Abstract In‐silico screening of novel biofuel molecules based on chemical and fuel properties is a critical first step in the biofuel evaluation process due to the significant volumes of samples required for experimental testing, the destructive nature of engine tests, and the costs associated with bench‐scale synthesis of novel fuels. Predictive models are limited by training sets of few existing measurements, often containing similar classes of molecules that represent just a subset of the potential molecular fuel space. Software tools can be used to generate every possible molecular descriptor for use as input features, but most of these features are largely irrelevant and training models on datasets with higher dimensionality than size tends to yield poor predictive performance. Feature selection has been shown to improve machine learning models, but correlation‐based feature selection fails to provide scientific insight into the underlying mechanisms that determine structure–property relationships. The implementation of causal discovery in feature selection could potentially inform the biofuel design process while also improving model prediction accuracy and robustness to new data. In this study, we investigate the benefits causal‐based feature selection might have on both model performance and identification of key molecular substructures. We found that causal‐based feature selection performed on par with alternative filtration methods, and that a structural causal model provides valuable scientific insights into the relationships between molecular substructures and fuel properties.

Nguyen, Bernard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equilibrium reconstruction of DIII-D plasmas using predictive modeling of the pressure profile

New workflows have been developed for predictive modeling of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium in tokamak plasmas. The goal of this work is to predict the MHD equilibrium in tokamak discharges without having measurements of the kinetic profiles. The workflows include a cold start tool, which constructs all the profiles and power flows needed by transport codes; a Grad–Shafranov equilibrium solver; and various codes for the sources and sinks. For validation purposes, a database of DIII-D tokamak discharges has been constructed that is comprised of scans in the plasma current, toroidal magnetic field, and triangularity. Initial efforts focused on developing a workflow utilizing an empirically derived pressure model tuned to DIII-D discharges with monotonic safety factor profiles. This workflow shows good agreement with experimental kinetic equilibrium calculations, but is limited in that it is a single fluid (equal ion and electron temperatures) model and lacks H-mode pedestal predictions. The best agreement with the H-mode database is obtained using a theory-based workflow utilizing pressure profile predictions from a coupled TGLF turbulent transport and EPED pedestal models together with external magnetics and Motional Stark Effect (MSE) data to construct the equilibrium. Here, we obtain an average root mean square error of 5.1% in the safety factor profile when comparing the predicted and experimental kinetic equilibrium. We also find good agreement with the plasma stored energy, internal inductance, and pressure profiles. Including MSE data in the theory-based workflow results in noticeably improved agreement with the q-profiles in high triangularity discharges in comparison with the results obtained with magnetic data only. The predictive equilibrium workflow is expected to have wide applications in experimental planning, between-shot analysis, and reactor studies.

Kinsey, J. E. (ORCID:0000000193347473)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Battery Control Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗