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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Design of Oil-Lubricated Machine for Life and Reliability

In the post-World War II era, the major technology drivers for improving the life, reliability, and performance of rolling-element bearings and gears have been the jet engine and the helicopter. By the late 1950s, most of the materials used for bearings and gears in the aerospace industry had been introduced into use. By the early 1960s, the life of most steels was increased over that experienced in the early 1940s, primarily by the introduction of vacuum degassing and vacuum melting processes in the late 1950s. The development of elastohydrodynamic (EHD) theory showed that most rolling bearings and gears have a thin film separating the contacting bodies during motion and it is that film which affects their lives. Computer programs modeling bearing and gear dynamics that incorporate probabilistic life prediction methods and EHD theory enable optimization of rotating machinery based on life and reliability. With improved manufacturing and processing, the potential improvement in bearing and gear life can be as much as 80 times that attainable in the early 1950s. The work presented summarizes the use of laboratory fatigue data for bearings and gears coupled with probabilistic life prediction and EHD theories to predict the life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The resulting predictions are compared with field data.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeDNN: Understanding and Verifying Neural Networks

The SafeDNN project at NASA Ames explores analysis techniques and tools to ensure that systems that use Deep Neural Networks (DNN) are safe, robust and interpretable. Research directions we are pursuing include: symbolic execution for DNN analysis, label-guided clustering to automatically identify input regions that are robust, parallel and compositional approaches to improve formal SMT-based verification, property inference and automated program repair for DNNs, adversarial training and detection, probabilistic reasoning for DNNs. In this talk I will highlight some of the research advances from SafeDNN, that were already published.

Corina Pasareanu↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic analysis for fatigue strength degradation of materials

This report presents the results of the first year of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio. The research included development of methodology that provides a probabilistic treatment of lifetime prediction of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Linear elastic fracture mechanics is utilized in the latter model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs, RANDOM2, RANDOM3, and RANDOM4. These programs determine the random lifetime of an engine component, in mechanical load cycles, to reach a critical fatigue strength or crack size. The material considered was a cast nickel base superalloy, one typical of those used in the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Royce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic load model development and validation for composite load spectra for select space propulsion engines

A major task of the program to develop an expert system to predict the loads on selected components of a generic space propulsion engine is the design development and application of a probabilitic loads model. This model is being developed in order to account for the random nature of the loads and assess the variable load ranges' effect on the engine performance. A probabilistic model has been developed. The model is based primarily on simulation methods, but also has a Gaussian algebra method (if all variables are near normal), a fast probability integrator routine (for the calculation of low probability events), and a separate, stand alone program for performing barrier crossing calculations. Each of these probabilistic methods has been verified with theoretical calculations using assumed distributional forms.

Kurth, R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Parallel computing for probabilistic fatigue analysis

This paper presents the results of Phase I research to investigate the most effective parallel processing software strategies and hardware configurations for probabilistic structural analysis. We investigate the efficiency of both shared and distributed-memory architectures via a probabilistic fatigue life analysis problem. We also present a parallel programming approach, the virtual shared-memory paradigm, that is applicable across both types of hardware. Using this approach, problems can be solved on a variety of parallel configurations, including networks of single or multiprocessor workstations. We conclude that it is possible to effectively parallelize probabilistic fatigue analysis codes; however, special strategies will be needed to achieve large-scale parallelism to keep large number of processors busy and to treat problems with the large memory requirements encountered in practice. We also conclude that distributed-memory architecture is preferable to shared-memory for achieving large scale parallelism; however, in the future, the currently emerging hybrid-memory architectures will likely be optimal.

Sues, Robert H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A brief overview of computational structures technology related activities at NASA Lewis Research Center

The presentation gives a partial overview of research and development underway in the Structures Division of LeRC, which collectively is referred to as the Computational Structures Technology Program. The activities in the program are diverse and encompass four major categories: (1) composite materials and structures; (2) probabilistic analysis and reliability; (3) design optimization and expert systems; and (4) computational methods and simulation. The approach of the program is comprehensive and entails exploration of fundamental theories of structural mechanics to accurately represent the complex physics governing engine structural performance, formulation, and implementation of computational techniques and integrated simulation strategies to provide accurate and efficient solutions of the governing theoretical models by exploiting the emerging advances in computer technology, and validation and verification through numerical and experimental tests to establish confidence and define the qualities and limitations of the resulting theoretical models and computational solutions. The program comprises both in-house and sponsored research activities. The remainder of the presentation provides a sample of activities to illustrate the breadth and depth of the program and to demonstrate the accomplishments and benefits that have resulted.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning

A general-purpose computer program for planning the actions of a spacecraft or other complex system has been augmented by incorporating a subprogram that reasons about uncertainties in such continuous variables as times taken to perform tasks and amounts of resources to be consumed. This subprogram computes parametric probability distributions for time and resource variables on the basis of user-supplied models of actions and resources that they consume. The current system accepts bounded Gaussian distributions over action duration and resource use. The distributions are then combined during planning to determine the net probability distribution of each resource at any time point. In addition to a full combinatoric approach, several approximations for arriving at these combined distributions are available, including maximum-likelihood and pessimistic algorithms. Each such probability distribution can then be integrated to obtain a probability that execution of the plan under consideration would violate any constraints on the resource. The key idea is to use these probabilities of conflict to score potential plans and drive a search toward planning low-risk actions. An output plan provides a balance between the user s specified averseness to risk and other measures of optimality.

Schaffer, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Reliable Earth Return System for Safe Recovery of Mars Samples

The objective of a Mars sample return mission is to bring selected Mars surface materials to Earth. Numerous approaches for the Earth-return segment have been analyzed including propulsive or aerocapture return to low-Earth orbit followed by Space Shuttle rendezvous and direct entry. Of these approaches, ballistic entry of a small capsule terminating in a ground landing has been shown to be the lowest risk strategy. Over the past two years, significant work has been performed towards development of a robust direct entry vehicle for Mars sample return. In June 1999, the NASA Planetary Protection Officer provided initial guidance to the former Mars Sample Return Project. The sample return phase of the mission was assigned a restricted Earth return planetary protection classification. The draft mission requirement states that the total mean probability of release of unsterilized Mars material into the Earth;s biosphere must be less than 1.0E-06 (1 in a million). This strict requirement drives the approach and design of the Earth return system. To meet this requirement, selection of the Earth return strategy and development of the Earth return system must be guided by risk, not performance, based decisions. An initial Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was performed to address the direct entry Earth return system containment assurance reliability and to identify high-risk elements of this system. The results of this PRA identified risk elements that include thermal protection system performance during entry, spin-eject orientation and aerodynamic stability during entry, structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and tracking/recovery of this system. This initial probabilistic risk quantification demonstrates that, with the proper development program, a prototypical direct entry design can satisfy the containment assurance reliability requirement. Through the current Mars Sample Return Advanced Technology Development effort, an extensive design, analysis, and test program is presently proceeding with the aim of reducing the containment assurance risk of this system. This technology development effort, guided by a continuing PRA, focuses on key risk areas of a direct entry Earth return system including: the thermal protection system, impact dynamics, structural performance, aerodynamic stability, and ground recovery. This development program will culminate in a system validation flight test, 1-2 years prior to launch of the flight system. This flight test would include the launch, entry, and recovery of a full-scale Earth return system, as a scientific validation of the key risk elements to verify nominal design performance. The results of the initial PRA suggested several dominant failure sequences that can be validated in a flight test. These include: demonstrating the thermal protection system reliability and performance during entry, demonstrating the spin-eject orientation and aero-dynamic stability during entry, demonstrating the structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and demonstrating tracking and recovery of the Earth return system. This single test will directly address over 50% of the total containment assurance risk elements. This presentation will begin by presenting the relative risk of various Earth return strategies. The results of the initial probabilistic risk assessment will be presented followed by a discussion of the development accomplishments and plans for demonstration of a highly reliable direct entry Earth return system.

Braun, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance Integration - the Future of Safe Deep Space Human Exploration

As a foundational element of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis Campaign, the Gateway is an incrementally built cislunar spacecraft that will serve as a platform for deep space human exploration, science, and technology demonstration. The Gateway will be a unifying catalyst for international partners around the world to establish sustained deep space scientific investigations, lunar surface access, and missions to Mars. As human exploration moves farther away from Earth, spacecraft designs must prioritize and optimize mass and volume allocations, while minimizing human and spacecraft risk. To accomplish this objective, the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance functions develop, implement, and ensure compliance with requirements, in concert with the accurate characterization and transparent communication of residual hazard risks, for integrated safety, reliability and maintainability and quality assurance. Safety and Mission Assurance was a key contributor during Gateway program pre-formulation and formulation activities where safety and reliability analysis was embedded in the Gateway Systems Engineering and Integration team. During these early program stages, a preliminary Gateway Integrated Hazard Analysis and Preliminary Gateway Probabilistic Risk Assessment assisted in Gateway architectural and operational definition as part of a risk-informed design process. As the deep space architecture has matured, the integrated Safety and Mission Assurance analyses have matured, new safety review processes have been developed, and requirements have been refined to ensure compliance with integrated safety and mission assurance objectives. The Gateway Program is currently concluding the preliminary design review informed milestone, where the primary objectives included: - Ensured completeness and consistency of the preliminary design, including the meeting of all requirements within appropriate margins and acceptable risk posture. - Identification of any major issues moving forward to the Critical Design phase. At this milestone, Safety and Mission Assurance provided numerous products, including Gateway Top Risks and Risk Mitigation Plans, updated integrated hazard analyses, updated probabilistic risk assessment, Crew Survival Analysis Report, and updated Safety and Mission Assurance Requirements and Plans. These products provide a many-faceted perspective on the inherent risk and available mitigations involved in flying the current proposed vehicle design and anticipated stack configurations. In addition, Safety and Mission Assurance identified top technical, process and workforce concerns to be addressed as the program progresses toward the critical design phase. This paper will detail the evolution of the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance integration functions, provide its current status and lessons learned for future human spaceflight programs. Throughout this paper the key tenets of the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance will be discussed: - Application of a risk-informed approach to identify and mitigate areas of highest risk. - Leverage of valuable processes and lessons learned from earlier spaceflight programs. - Development of Safety and Mission Assurance products to inform design risk trades. - Utilization of common Safety and Mission Assurance practices to identify safety risks for multiple perspectives: top-down, bottom-up, and across lines of integration. - Approval of safety hazards at the appropriate level of authority, keeping most deliberation closest to design expertise and elevating risks of greatest concern for program-level consideration. - Championing of Safety and Mission Assurance processes and forums to foster a pervasive safety culture that is transparent, inclusive, and collaborative between all partners. These tenets have allowed the Gateway Safety and Mission Assurance function to play a key role in optimized vehicle design evolution, and early identification and mitigation of Gateway program and Artemis mission risk.

Helen Vaccaro↗
NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Method for Scheduling Air Traffic with Uncertain En Route Capacity Constraints

A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.

Arneson, Heather↗
NASA NTRS1995

NASA Tech Briefs, November 1995

The contents include: 1) Mission Accomplished; 2) Resource Report: Marshall Space Flight Center; 3) NASA 1995 Software of the Year Award; 4) Microbolometers Based on Epitaxial YBa2Cu3O(sub 7-x) Thin Films; 5) Garnet Random-Access Memory; 6) Fabrication of SNS Weak Links on SOS Substrates; 7) High-Voltage MOSFET Switching Circuit; 8) Asymmetric Switching for a PWM H-Bridge Power Circuit; 9) Better Ohmic Contacts for InP Semiconductor Devices; 10) Low-Bandgap Thermovoltaic Materials and Devices; 11) Digital Frequency-Differencing Circuit; 12) Imaging Magnetometer; 13) Computer-Assisted Monitoring of a Complex System; 14) Buffered Telemetry Demodulator; 15) Compact Multifunction Inspection Head; 16) Optical Detection of Fractures in Ceramic Diaphragms; 17) Eddy-Current Detection of Cracks in Reinforced Carbon/Carbon; 18) Apparent Thermal Conductivity of Multilayer Insulation; 19) Optimizing Misch-Metal Compositions in Metal Hydride Anodes; 20) Device for Sampling Surface Contamination; 21) Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue; 22) Probabilistic Fatigue and Flaw-Propagation Analysis; 23) Windows Program for Driving the TDU-850 Printer; 24) Subband/Transform MATLAB Functions for Processing Images; 25) Computing Equilibrium Chemical Compositions; 26) Program Processes Thermocouple Readings; 27) ICAN-Second-Generation Integrated Composite Analyzer; 28) Integrated Composite Analyzer with Damping Capabilities; 29) Computing Efficiency of Transfer of Microwave Power; 30) Program Calculates Power Demands of Electronic Designs; 31) Cost-Estimation Program; 32) Program Estimates Areas Required by Electronic Designs; 33) Program to Balance Mapped Turbopump Assemblies; 34) BiblioTech; 35) Controlling Mirror Tilt With a Bimorph Actuator; 36) Burst-Disk Device Simulates Effect of Pyrotechnic Device; 37) Bearing-Mounting Concept Accommodates Thermal Expansion; 38) Parallel-Plate Acoustic Absorbers for Hot Environments; 39) Adjustable-Length Strut Withstands Large Cyclic Loads; 40) Tool Indicates Contact Angles in Bearing Raceways; 41) Gravity Slides With Magnetic Braking; 42) High-Torque, Lightweight, Pneumatically Driven Wrench for Small Spaces; 43) Device for Testing Compatibility of an O-Ring; 44) Magnetic Heat Pump Containing Flow Diverters; 45) Variable-Tilt Helicopter Rotor Mast; 46) "Beach-Ball" Robotic Rovers; 47) Apparatus Would Measure Temperatures of Ball Bearings; 48) Flexible Borescope for Inspecting Ducts; 49) Texturing Copper To Reduce Secondary Emission of Electrons; 50) Automated Laser Cutting in Three Dimensions; 51) Algorithm Helps Monitor Engine Operation; 52) Flexible Revision of Data-Processing Communications; 53) Software for Managing the Use of Land; 54) Thermal Strap Increases Cryocooling Efficiency; 55) Reversible Nut With Engagement Indication; 56) Control Algorithms for Kinematically Redundant Manipulators; 57) Computed Hydrogen-Flow Splits in a Rocket Engine; 58) Pressure and Thermal Modeling of Rocket Launches; 59) Field of View of a Spacecraft Antenna: Analysis and Software; 60) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem; 61) More About Beam-Steering Subsystem for Laser Communication; 62) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem: Part 2; 63) Interface Circuit Board for Space-Shuttle Communications; 64) Automated Planning of Spacecraft Telecommunications; 65) Artifacts of Spectral Analysis of Instrument Readings; 66) Neural-Network Controller for Vibration Suppression; 67) Adaptive Finite-Element Computation in Fracture Mechanics; 68) Attitude Control for the Cassini Spacecraft; 69) Analytical Model for Fluid Dynamics in a Microgravity Environment; 70) Study of Rocket-Engine Joints Bonded by NVCU/NARloy-Z; 71) Improved Silicon Nitride for Advanced Heat Engines; 72) Parameters for Welding Aluminum/Lithium Alloys; 73) Lightweight Composite Intertank Structure; 74) Foil Patches Seal Small Vacuum Leaks; 75) Data Base on Cables and Connectors; 76) Effect of Clock Mode on Radiation Hardnessf an ADC; and 77) Fault-Tolerant Control for a Robotic Inspection System.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2019

Trends in Human Spaceflight: Failure Tolerance, High Reliability and Correlated Failure History

In a half century of human spaceflight, NASA has continuously refined agency safety and reliability requirements in response to mission demands, critical failures, and technology development. Early spacecraft, including Mercury, Gemini and Apollo vehicles, were highly reliant on dissimilar redundancy and demonstrated test margins. Later programs, such as the reusable Space Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS), introduced probabilistic studies and isolated two-failure tolerance to improve robustness at the expense of added complexity. More recently, the Orion Multi-Program Crew Vehicle (MPCV) program adopted universal single-failure tolerance with two categorical exceptions; Zero-Failure Tolerant (0FT) and Design for Minimum Risk (DFMR) hardware. Failure tolerance variances are defined and managed in accordance with agency human-rating requirements, and require concurrence from program Technical Authorities (TA) as well as the MPCV Safety and Mission Assurance Safety and Engineering Review Panel (MSERP). To understand and reaffirm standards applied to Apollo, Space Shuttle and Orion vehicles, Orion and Deep Space Gateway Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) representatives conducted accelerated research to compare unique safety and reliability criteria against ground and flight anomalies, based on information contained in post-mission reports and the Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) database. In some cases, high-profile failures and narrow escapes have reinforced decisions to maintain or adapt safety requirements. In others, empirical trends have highlighted the need for vigilance and innovative safety guidelines. Given the inability to achieve absolute compliance with evolving safety and reliability requirements, the team conducted a targeted review of DFMR and 0FT propulsion elements within the framework of changing system design, inspection, materials and process developments to formulate conclusions on technological maturity, failure density, and net changes in safety risk. Based on the aggregate performance of high-reliability and failure-tolerant systems, the authors have attempted to establish best practices and guidelines to inform future program decisions. On a somewhat cautionary note, this study is not intended to direct a universal set of requirements for future missions based on prior lessons learned. Spacecraft safety is a multi-variable problem, and attempts to mitigate past failures will not guarantee future success. However, this assessment offers a retrospective review of policy changes, implementation and effectiveness. In the future, NASA, European Space Agency (ESA) and industry partners may benefit from a more robust correlation between requirements and performance, as space-faring nations work toward more challenging, complex and long-duration commercial and deep-space ventures.

Green, Carrie↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic methods for rotordynamics analysis

This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of dynamic systems that can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the eigenvalues or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on a fast probability integration concept and an efficient adaptive importance sampling method are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the methods.

Wu, Y.-T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fayssal, Safie↗