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At least 145 records · Page 8

Application of the Maximum Amplitude-Early Rise Correlation to Cycle 23

On the basis of the maximum amplitude-early rise correlation, cycle 23 could have been predicted to be about the size of the mean cycle as early as 12 mo following cycle minimum. Indeed, estimates for the size of cycle 23 throughout its rise consistently suggested a maximum amplitude that would not differ appreciably from the mean cycle, contrary to predictions based on precursor information. Because cycle 23 s average slope during the rising portion of the solar cycle measured 2.4, computed as the difference between the conventional maximum (120.8) and minimum (8) amplitudes divided by the ascent duration in months (47), statistically speaking, it should be a cycle of shorter period. Hence, conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 should occur before December 2006, probably near July 2006 (+/-4 mo). However, if cycle 23 proves to be a statistical outlier, then conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 would be delayed until after July 2007, probably near December 2007 (+/-4 mo). In anticipation of cycle 24, a chart and table are provided for easy monitoring of the nearness and size of its maximum amplitude once onset has occurred (with respect to the mean cycle and using the updated maximum amplitude-early rise relationship).

Willson, Robert M.↗

Simulations of frustrated Ising Hamiltonians using quantum approximate optimization

Novel magnetic materials are important for future technological advances. Theoretical and numerical calculations of ground-state properties are essential in understanding these materials, however, computational complexity limits conventional methods for studying these states. Here we investigate an alternative approach to preparing materials ground states using the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) on near-term quantum computers. We study classical Ising spin models on unit cells of square, Shastry-Sutherland and triangular lattices, with varying field amplitudes and couplings in the material Hamiltonian. We find relationships between the theoretical QAOA success probability and the structure of the ground state, indicating that only a modest number of measurements (≲100) are needed to find the ground state of our nine-spin Hamiltonians, even for parameters leading to frustrated magnetism. We further demonstrate the approach in calculations on a trapped-ion quantum computer and succeed in recovering each ground state of the Shastry-Sutherland unit cell with probabilities close to ideal theoretical values. The results demonstrate the viability of QAOA for materials ground state preparation in the frustrated Ising limit, giving important first steps towards larger sizes and more complex Hamiltonians where quantum computational advantage may prove essential in developing a systematic understanding of novel materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decision-directed automatic gain control for MAPSK systems

An automatic gain control (AGC) loop is presented for use with M-ary amplitude and phase shift keying (MAPSK) systems. The gain control amplifier is regulated by an error signal formed by the difference between the estimated amplitude level and the received amplitude level. The AGC performance is thus independent of the short-term average received signal energy. AGC loop analysis and simulation is presented for M-ary amplitude shift keying and quadrature amplitude shift keying. The AGC is shown to have a negligible degradation on the symbol probability of error for most practical cases. A generalized AGC for an arbitrary MAPSK system is presented.

Weber, W. J., III↗

The underlying magnetic field direction in Ulysses observations of the southern polar heliosphere

Between May 1993 and January 1995, the Ulysses spacecraft has probed the southern polar heliosphere at latitudes greater than 30 deg S, reaching a maximum latitude of 80.2 deg S in September 1994. Using hourly averages of the data obtained by the magnetometer experiment on Ulysses we have studied the underlying direction of the magnetic field threading this region of the heliosphere, away from the influence of the magnetic sector structure which complicates similar analyses in the ecliptic plane. We have constructed histograms of the measured magnetic field direction using the simple Parker spiral model field direction as a reference. We find that throughout this region the meridional angle between the field vector and the Parker model direction has a distribution which is symmetric and has a most probable value consistent with the model. At latitudes below about 60 deg S the azimuthal angle distribution also has a most probable value consistent with the model but this distribution is highly asymmetric with a greater number of observations of field lines less tightly wound than the expected spiral direction. At latitudes greater than 60 deg S the most probable value of the azimuthal angle is found to have become nearly 30 more tightly wound than the expected direction, but due to the asymmetric distribution still with a greater number of observations less tightly wound than expected. We consider possible causes of both the asymmetry in the distributions and the shift in the most probable value at the highest latitudes, one of which may be the presence of large amplitude, long period Alfven waves in the magnetic field originating from the Sun's southern polar coronal hole.

Forsyth, R. J.↗

Deriving Laws from Ordering Relations

It took much effort in the early days of non-Euclidean geometry to break away from the mindset that all spaces are flat and that two distinct parallel lines do not cross. Up to that point, all that was known was Euclidean geometry, and it was difficult to imagine anything else. We have suffered a similar handicap brought on by the enormous relevance of Boolean algebra to the problems of our age-logic and set theory. Previously, I demonstrated that the algebra of questions is not Boolean, but rather is described by the free distributive algebra. To get to this stage took much effort, as many obstacles-most self-placed-had to be overcome. As Boolean algebras were all I had ever known, it was almost impossible for me to imagine working with an algebra where elements do not have complements. With this realization, it became very clear that the sum and product rules of probability theory at the most basic level had absolutely nothing to do with the Boolean algebra of logical statements. Instead, a measure of degree of inclusion can be invented for many different partially ordered sets, and the sum and product rules fall out of the associativity and distributivity of the algebra. To reinforce this very important idea, this paper will go over how these constructions are made, while focusing on the underlying assumptions. I will derive the sum and product rules for a distributive lattice in general and demonstrate how this leads to probability theory on the Boolean lattice and is related to the calculus of quantum mechanical amplitudes on the partially ordered set of experimental setups. I will also discuss the rules that can be derived from modular lattices and their relevance to the cross-ratio of projective geometry.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

A non-Gaussian statistical model for surface elevation of nonlinear random wave fields

Probability density function of the surface elevation of a nonlinear random wave field is obtained. The wave model is based on the Stokes expansion carried to the third order for both deep water waves and waves in finite depth. The amplitude and phase of the first-order component of the Stokes wave are assumed to be Rayleigh and uniformly distributed and slowly varying, respectively. The probability density function for the deep water case was found to depend on two parameters: the root-mean-square surface elevation and the significant slope. For water of finite depth, an additional parameter, the nondimensional depth, is also required. An important difference between the present result and the Gram-Charlier representation is that the present probability density functions are always nonnegative. It is also found that the 'constant' term in the Stokes expansion, usually neglected in deterministic studies, plays an important role in determining the details of the density function. The results compare well with laboratory and field experiment data.

Huang, N. E.↗

Effect of signal jitter on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise

The effect of randomness or jitter of the acoustic waveform on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise is studied because of its importance for data interpretation. An acoustic waveform train is modelled representing rotor impulsive noise. The amplitude, shape, and period between occurrences of individual pulses are allowed to be randomized assuming normal probability distributions. Results, in terms of the standard deviations of the variable quantities, are given for the autospectrum as well as special processed spectra designed to separate harmonic and broadband rotor noise components. Consideration is given to the effect of accuracy in triggering or keying to a rotor one per revolution signal. An example is given showing the resultant spectral smearing at the high frequencies due to the pulse signal period variability.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

Effect of signal jitter on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise

The effect of randomness or jitter of the acoustic waveform on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise is studied because of its importance for data interpretation. An acoustic waveform train is modeled representing rotor impulsive noise. The amplitude, shape, and period between occurrences of individual pulses are allowed to be randomized assuming normal probability distributions. Results, in terms of the standard deviations of the variable quantities, are given for the autospectrum as well as special processed spectra designed to separate harmonic and broadband rotor noise components. Consideration is given to the effect of accuracy in triggering or keying to a rotor one per revolution signal. An example is given showing the resultant spectral smearing at the high frequencies due to the pulse signal period variability.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

The evolution of dust deposits in the Martian north polar region

The origin and evolution of two major eolian deposits of the Martian north polar region, the layered deposits and the debris mantle, are examined. Both apparently result from deposition of dust along with the seasonal CO2 frost cap. Dust deposited onto the perennial ice is incorporated into the layered deposits, while dust deposited directly onto the surface becomes part of the debris mantle. Climatically induced fluctuation of the perennial ice margin has influenced the evolution of both units. Periodic exposure to the atmosphere has allowed erosion of curvilinear troughs in the surface of the layered deposits. Intervening periods of deposition may have resulted in gradual poleward migration of the trough forms, leaving behind sets of low-amplitude surface undulations in former trough locations. Advance and retreat of the perennial ice margin has also probably resulted in a fine interfingering of the layered deposits-debris mantle contract. Limited post-depositional stripping of the debris mantle has been accomplished by intense winds blowing outward from the pole.

Squyres, S. W.↗

Optical and UV spectroscopy of the black hole binary candidate LMC X-1

Both further optical spectroscopy of the binary star identified with LMC X-1, obtained between 1983 and 1985, and a series of IUE UV spectra taken during a 5 day interval in 1984 are presented. The optical data are used to refine the orbital period to 4.2288 days, and improved orbital parameters are derived. The velocity of the optical emission lines is antiphased with the absorption lines and has twice the velocity amplitude. These new results support the estimates of the masses in the system given earlier. The most probable component masses are approximately 20 solar masses for the primary and near 6 solar masses (for the x-ray star), suggesting the the latter may be a black hole. The UV spectra show very weak, low-velocity stellar-wind lines. It is suggested that much of the surrounding medium is highly ionized by the X-ray flux. The 'nonwind' UV spectral lines and the UV continuum temperature are consistent with the optical data, indicating a late O type star of M(bol) = -8.5. There is a weak modulation of absorption-line strengths with orbital phase, suggestive of a lack of axisymmetry in the X-irradiation of the primary star and indicative of a fairly low orbital inclination.

Hutchings, J. B.↗

Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter-annually), (2) time series at these different time scales taken as area-averages over the hierarchy of relevant space scales (Indian sub-Division, Indian sub-continent, and Circumambient Indian Ocean), (3) principal autocorrelation and cross-correlation structures over various monsoon space-time domains, (4) diurnally modulated amplitude-phase properties of rain rates over different monsoon space-time domains, (5) foremost rain rate probability distributions intrinsic to monsoon precipitation, and (6) behavior of extreme events including occurrences of flood and drought episodes throughout the course of inter-annual monsoon processes.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Magnetic fields, plasmas, and coronal holes: The inner solar system

In situ magnetic field and plasma observations within 1 AU which describe MDH stream flows and Alfvenic fluctuations, the latest theories of those phenomena are discussed. Understanding of streams and fluctuations was enhanced by the acquisition of nearly complete sets of high resolution plasma and magnetic data simultaneously at two or more points by IMPs 6, 7, and 8, Mariner-Venus-Mercury, HELIOS 1, and HELIOS 2. Observations demonstrate that streams can have very thin boundaries in latitude and longitude near the sun. This has necessitated a revision of earlier views of stream dynamics, for it is now clear that magnetic pressure is a major factor in the dynamics of stream in the inner solar system and that nonlinear phenomena are significant much closer to the sun than previously believed. Simultaneous IMP 6, 7, and 8 observations of Alfvenic fluctuations indicate that they are probably not simply transverse Alfven waves and suggest that Alfvenic fluctuations are better described as nonplanar, large-amplitude, general Alfven waves moving through an inhomogeneous and discontinuous medium, and coupled to a compressive mode.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

Solar activity influence on climatic variations of stratosphere and mesosphere in mid-latitudes

The direct modulation of temperature of the mid-latitude mesosphere by the solar-cycle EUV variation, which leads to greater heat input at higher solar activity, is well established. Middle atmosphere temperature modulation by the solar cycle is independently confirmed by the variation of reflection heights of low frequency radio waves in the lower ionosphere, which are regularly monitored over about 30 years. As explained elsewhere in detail, these reflection heights depend on the geometric altitude of a certain isobaric surface (near 80 k), and on the solar ionizing Lyman-alpha radiation flux. Knowing the solar cycle variation of Lyman-alpha how much the measured reflection heights would be lowered with the transition from solar minimum to maximum can be calculated, if the vertical baric structure of the neutral atmosphere would remain unchanged. An discrepancy between expected and observed height change must be explained by an uplifting of the isobaric level from solar minimum to maximum, caused by the temperature rise in the mesosphere. By integrating the solar cycle temperature changes over the height region of the middle atmosphere, and assuming that the lower boundary (tropopause) has no solar cycle variation, the magnitude of this uplifting can be estimated. It is given for the Lidar-derived and for the rocket-measured temperature variations. Comparison suggests that the real amplitude of the solar cycle temperature variation in the mesosphere is underestimated when using the rocket data, but probably overestimated with the Lidar data.

Taubenheim, J.↗

Mesoscale disturbances in the tropical stratosphere excited by convection - Observations and effects on the stratospheric momentum budget

Aircraft temperature and pressure measurements as well as satellite imagery are used to establish the amplitudes and the space and time scale of potential temperature disturbances over convective systems. A conceptual model is proposed for the generation of mesoscale gravity waves by convection. The momentum forcing that a reasonable distribution of convection might exert on the tropical stratosphere through convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves of the observed amplitudes is estimated. Aircraft measurements show that presence of mesoscale disturbances in the lower stratospheric temperature, disturbances that appear to be associated with underlying convection. If the disturbances are convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves, their amplitude is sufficient that their breakdown in the upper stratosphere will exert a zonal force comparable to but probably smaller than the planetary-scale Kelvin waves.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

Spatial evolution of 26-day recurrent galactic cosmic ray decreases: Correlated Ulysses COSPIN/KET and SOHO COSTEP observations

A Lomb (spectral) analysis was performed on the galactic comsic ray flux from February 1996 to June 1996. The most probable frequency is approximately 28 days and not 26 or 27 days, corresponding to one solar rotation. The amplitude of the recurrent cosmic ray decreases (RCRDs) is approximately 2.3 percent on both spacecraft. The variation in the solar wind speed shows the same periodicites and is anticorrelated to the variation in the cosmic ray flux. In contrast to the RCRDs, the amplitude found in the solar wind speed is four times larger at WIND (120 km/s) than at Ulysses (32 km/s). The solar wind proton density and magnetic field strength yielded no significant periodicities, neither at Ulysses nor at WIND. Comparing the RCRDs with coronal hole structures observed in the FE XIV line, it was found that a single coronal hole close to the heliographic equator can account for the RCRDs observed 'simultaneously' at Ulysses and SOHO. The coronal hole boundaries changed towards lower Carrington longitudes and vanished slowly. The changes of the boundaries during the investigated period could explain a 28-day periodicity.

Heber, B.↗

Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

On the halo-mass and radial scale dependence of the lensing is low effect

ABSTRACT The canonical Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model makes precise predictions for the clustering and lensing properties of galaxies. It has been shown that the lensing amplitude of galaxies in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) is lower than expected given their clustering properties. We present new measurements and modelling of galaxies in the BOSS LOWZ sample. We focus on the radial and stellar mass dependence of the lensing amplitude mismatch. We find an amplitude mismatch of around $35{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ when assuming ΛCDM with Planck Cosmological Microwave Background (CMB) constraints. This offset is independent of halo mass and radial scale in the range Mhalo ∼ 1013.3−1013.9h−1 M⊙ and $r=0.1\!-\!60 \, h^{-1} \mathrm{Mpc}$ ($k \approx 0.05\!-\!20 \, h \, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$). The observation that the offset is both mass and scale independent places important constraints on the degree to which astrophysical processes (baryonic effects, assembly bias) can fully explain the effect. This scale independence also suggests that the ‘lensing is low’ effect on small and large radial scales probably have the same physical origin. Resolutions based on new physics require a nearly uniform suppression, relative to ΛCDM predictions, of the amplitude of matter fluctuations on these scales. The possible causes of this are tightly constrained by measurements of the CMB and of the low-redshift expansion history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

Generazio, Edward R.↗