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Results for “probability of initiation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

A rotor optimization using regression analysis

The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.

Giansante, N.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Approach range and velocity determination using laser sensors and retroreflector targets

A laser docking sensor study is currently in the third year of development. The design concept is considered to be validated. The concept is based on using standard radar techniques to provide range, velocity, and bearing information. Multiple targets are utilized to provide relative attitude data. The design requirements were to utilize existing space-qualifiable technology and require low system power, weight, and size yet, operate from 0.3 to 150 meters with a range accuracy greater than 3 millimeters and a range rate accuracy greater than 3 mm per second. The field of regard for the system is +/- 20 deg. The transmitter and receiver design features a diode laser, microlens beam steering, and power control as a function of range. The target design consists of five target sets, each having seven 3-inch retroreflectors, arranged around the docking port. The target map is stored in the sensor memory. Phase detection is used for ranging, with the frequency range-optimized. Coarse bearing measurement is provided by the scanning system (one set of binary optics) angle. Fine bearing measurement is provided by a quad detector. A MIL-STD-1750 A/B computer is used for processing. Initial test results indicate a probability of detection greater than 99 percent and a probability of false alarm less than 0.0001. The functional system is currently at the MIT/Lincoln Lab for demonstration.

Donovan, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of large-scale structures and velocities in the local universe

Comparison of the large-scale density and velocity fields in the local universe shows detailed agreement, strengthening the standard paradigm of the gravitational origin of these structures. Quantitative analysis can determine the cosmological density parameter, Omega, and biasing factor, b; there is virtually no sensitivity in any local analyses to the cosmologial constant, lambda. Comparison of the dipole anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background with the acceleration due to the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) galaxies puts the linear growth factor in the range beta approximately equals Omega (exp 0.6)/b = 0.6(+0.7/-0.3) (95% confidence). A direct comparison of the density and velocity fields of nearby galaxies gives beta = 1.3 (+0.7/-0.6), and from nonlinear analysis the weaker limit (Omega greater than 0.45 for b greater than 0.5 (again 95% confidence). A tighter limit (Omega greater than 0.3 (4-6 sigma)), is obtained by a reconstruction of the probability distribution function of the initial fluctuations from which the structures observed today arose. The last two methods depend critically on the smooth velocity field determined from the observed velocities of nearby galaxies by the POTENT method. A new analysis of these velocities, with more than three times the data used to obtain the above quoted results, is now underway and promises to tighten the uncertainties considerably, as well as reduce systematic bias.

Yahil, Amos↗
NASA NTRS2001

Disturbance Dynamics in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

The dynamics of an ensemble of linear disturbances with a known probability distribution associated with the initial mode amplitudes are studied in boundary-layer flows through an analysis of the transport equations for the mean disturbance kinetic energy and disturbance energy dissipation rate. Effects of adverse and favorable pressure-gradients on the disturbance dynamics are also included in the analysis. Unlike the fully turbulent regime where nonlinear phase scrambling of the fluctuations affects the flow field in proximity to the wall, the laminar regime fluctuations studied here are influenced across the boundary layer by the solid boundary. In addition to the low Reynolds number, early stage transition regime, the dynamics of these disturbance fields can be related in some respects to the near-wall dynamics of the fully turbulent regime.

Grosch, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Roll Damping Derivatives from Generalized Lifting-Surface Theory and Wind Tunnel Forced-Oscillation Tests

Improving aerodynamic models for adverse loss-of-control conditions in flight is an area being researched under the NASA Aviation Safety Program. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. As more general aerodynamic models are studied that include nonlinear higher order effects, the possibility of measurements that confound aerodynamic and structural responses are probable. In this study an initial step is taken to look at including structural flexibility in analysis of rigid-body forced-oscillation testing that accounts for dynamic rig, sting and balance flexibility. Because of the significant testing required and associated costs in a general study, it makes sense to capitalize on low cost analytical methods where possible, especially where structural flexibility can be accounted for by a low cost method. This paper provides an initial look at using linear lifting surface theory applied to rigid-body aircraft roll forced-oscillation tests.

Pototzky, Anthony S↗
NASA NTRS2016

Reanalyzing Environmental Lidar Data for Archaeology: Mesoamerican Applications and Implications

This paper presents a preliminary archaeological assessment of extensive transects of lidar recently collected by environmental scientists over southern Mexico using the G-LiHT system of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. In particular, this article offers the results of a first phase of research, consisting of: 1) characterization and classification of the cultural and ecological context of the samples, and 2) bare earth processing and visual inspection of a sample of the flight paths for identification of probable anthropogenic Precolumbian features. These initial results demonstrate that significant contributions to understanding variations in Precolumbian land-use and settlement patterns and change is possible with truly multi-regional lidar surveys not originally captured for archaeological prospection. We point to future directions for the development of archaeological applications of this robust data set. Finally, we offer the potential for enriching archaeological research through tightly coupled collaborations with environmental science and monitoring. Archaeologists in the neotropics can acquire more data, better realize the full potential of lidar surveys, and better contribute to interdisciplinary studies of human-environmental dynamic systems through regionally focused and collaborative scientific research.

Golden, Charles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Bouguer Images of the North American Craton

Processing of existing gravity and aeromagnetic data with modern methods is providing new insights into crustal and mantle structures for large parts of the United States and Canada. More than three-quarters of a million ground station readings of gravity are now available for this region. These data offer a wealth of information on crustal and mantle structures when reduced and displayed as Bouguer anomalies, where lateral variations are controlled by the size, shape and densities of underlying materials. Digital image processing techniques were used to generate Bouguer images that display more of the granularity inherent in the data as compared with existing contour maps. A dominant NW-SE linear trend of highs and lows can be seen extending from South Dakota, through Nebaska, and into Missouri. This trend is probably related to features created during an early and perhaps initial episode of crustal assembly by collisional processes. The younger granitic materials are probably a thin cover over an older crust.

Arvidson, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Bouguer images of the North American craton and its structural evolution

Digital image processing techniques have been used to generate Bouguer images of the North American craton that diplay more of the granularity inherent in the data as compared with existing contour maps. A dominant NW-SE linear trend of highs and lows can be seen extending from South Dakota, through Nebraska, and into Missouri. The structural trend cuts across the major Precambrian boundary in Missouri, separating younger granites and rhyolites from older sheared granites and gneisses. This trend is probably related to features created during an early and perhaps initial episode of crustal assembly by collisional processes. The younger granitic materials are probably a thin cover over an older crust.

Arvidson, R. E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Restructuring Induced Oxygen Activation on AgCu Near Surface Alloys

Recent studies have shown that the addition of Cu to Ag catalysts improves their epoxidation performance by increasing the overall selectivity of the bimetallic catalyst. We have prepared AgCu near-surface alloys and used scanning tunneling microscopy to gain an atomistic picture of O 2 dissociation on the bimetallic system. These data reveal a higher dissociative sticking probability for O 2 on AgCu than Ag(111), and density functional theory (DFT) confirms that the O 2 dissociation barrier is 0.17 eV lower on the alloy. Surprisingly, we find that after a slow initial uptake of O 2 , the sticking probability increases exponentially. Further DFT calculations indicate that surface oxygen reverses the segregation energy for AgCu, stabilizing Cu atoms in the Ag layer. These single Cu atoms in the Ag surface are found to significantly lower the O 2 dissociation barrier. Altogether, these results explain nonlinear effects in the activation of O 2 on this catalytically relevant surface alloy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Role of Water Vapor and Dissociative Recombination Processes in Solar Array Arc Initiation

Experimental plasma arc investigations involving the onset of arc initiation for a negatively biased solar array immersed in low-density plasma have been performed. Previous studies into the arc initiation process have shown that the most probable arcing sites tend to occur at the triple junction involving the conductor, dielectric and plasma. More recently our own experiments have led us to believe that water vapor is the main causal factor behind the arc initiation process. Assuming the main component of the expelled plasma cloud by weight is water, the fastest process available is dissociative recombination (H2O(+) + e(-) (goes to) H* + OH*). A model that agrees with the observed dependency of arc current pulse width on the square root of capacitance is presented. A 400 MHz digital storage scope and current probe was used to detect arcs at the triple junction of a solar array. Simultaneous measurements of the arc trigger pulse, the gate pulse, the arc current and the arc voltage were then obtained. Finally, a large number of measurements of individual arc spectra were obtained in very short time intervals, ranging from 10 to 30 microseconds, using a 1/4 a spectrometer coupled with a gated intensified CCD. The spectrometer was systematically tuned to obtain optical arc spectra over the entire wavelength range of 260 to 680 nanometers. All relevant atomic lines and molecular bands were then identified.

Galofar, J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Disturbance Dynamics in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

In order to expand the predictive capability of single-point turbulence closure models to account for the early-stage transition regime, a methodology for the formulation and calibration of model equations for the ensemble-averaged disturbance kinetic energy and energy dissipation rate is presented. First the decay of laminar disturbances and turbulence in mean shear-free flows is studied. In laminar flows, such disturbances are linear superpositions of modes governed by the Orr-Sommerfeld equation. In turbulent flows, disturbances are described through transport equations for representative mean quantities. The link between a description based on a deterministic evolution equation and a probability based mean transport equation is established. Because an uncertainty in initial conditions exists in the laminar as well as the turbulent regime, a probability distribution must be defined even in the laminar case. Using this probability distribution, it is shown that the exponential decay of the linear modes in the laminar regime can be related to a power law decay of both the (ensemble) mean disturbance kinetic energy and the dissipation rate. The evolution of these mean disturbance quantities is then described by transport equations similar to those for the corresponding turbulent decaying flow. Second, homogeneous shear flow, where disturbances can be described by rapid distortion theory (RDT), is studied. The relationship between RDT and linear stability theory is exploited in order to obtain a closed set of modeled equations. The linear disturbance equations are solved directly so that the numerical simulation yields a database from which the closure coefficients in the ensemble-averaged disturbance equations can be determined.

Grosch, Chester E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of two pressure–temperature equilibration methods

We compare and contrast the traditionally used method of solving the pressure–temperature equilibration problem in hydrodynamics, where specific internal energy and density are considered independent variables, with a different method where pressure and temperature are independent variables. With the goal of examining the robustness of the two methods as the number of components increases, we examine 2-, 4-, 6-, and 8-component systems. After equilibrating more than 10 4 initial conditions for each system using both methods, we demonstrate that the latter method constrains the search space by lowering its dimensionality and forces a better initial guess, resulting in a higher probability of convergence to solution with fewer, cheaper iterations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Path-integral predictions for preasymptotic quantum tunneling

When tunneling occurs out of generic initial states, a significant fraction of probability is lost at early times, during which the dynamics is governed by excited resonance states. However, first-principles analyses based on path-integrals have only captured the leading asymptotic behavior, during which the tunneling rate is dominated by the false vacuum contribution. In this work, we discuss the behavior in the preasymptotic regime from a first-principles path-integral perspective. We demonstrate how the relevant expressions can be evaluated systematically through semiclassical methods in the recently developed steadyon picture. This approach allows one to trace the role of the relevant physical scales, making transparent the underlying assumptions and approximations, and offering a clear path to establishing a systematically improvable framework to evaluate tunneling rates nonperturbatively.

Lin, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2022

Let’s talk about sex: A biological variable in immune response against melanoma

As science culture gravitates toward a more holistic inclusion of both males and females in research design, the outlining of sex differences and their respective intersections with disease physiology and pathophysiology should see reciprocal expansion. Melanoma skin cancer, for example, has observed a female advantage in incidence, mortality, and overall survival since the early 1970s. The exact biological mechanism of this trend, however, is unclear and further complicated by a layering of clinical variables such as skin phototype, age, and body mass index. In this perspective, we highlight epidemiological evidence of sex differences in melanoma and summarize the landscape of their potential origin. Among several biological hallmarks, we make a note of sex-specific immune profiles—along with divergent hormonal regulation, social practices, DNA damage and oxidative stress responses, body composition, genetic variants, and X-chromosome expression—as probable drivers of disparity in melanoma initiation and progression. This review further focuses the conversation of sex as an influencing factor in melanoma development and its potential implication for disease management and treatment strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗