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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors for airborne thunderstorm investigations

A high-energy atmospheric physics phenomenon, referred to as a terrestrial gamma ray flash (TGF), is associated with lightning and produces large bursts of energetic photon radiation. TGFs will be investigated using a suite of gamma-ray instruments designed and constructed to fly on ten United States Air Force (USAF) WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft as part of an aircrew ionization study led by the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM), in cooperation with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (WRS). Each instrument consists of one NaI and one plastic detector, a GPS timing device, and an instrument computer that performs data acquisition. High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors will be employed to maximize the chances of observing TGFs near their source and to gain a better understanding of their origin, mechanism, ubiquity, and to assess potential hazards posed to military and commercial aircrew and passengers. The HERA program, deployed on 10 separate Air Force aircraft over a multi-year campaign, will result in thousands of observational flight hours and be the largest concerted effort to date to observe TGFs in situ through aircraft observations. In this paper, we give an overview of the scientific goals of this campaign and how the HERA instruments have been designed to meet those goals. Here, we include a detailed description of the HERA instrument, along with mass model and signal processing simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling scientific machine learning in MOOSE using Libtorch

A neural-network-based machine learning interface has been developed for the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The interface relies on Libtorch, the C++ front-end of PyTorch, and enables an online interaction between modern machine learning algorithms and all the existing simulation, modeling, and analysis processes available in MOOSE. New capabilities in MOOSE include the native generation and training of artificial neural networks together with options to load pretrained neural networks in TorchScript format. Furthermore, the MOOSE stochastic tools module (MOOSE-STM) has been enhanced with neural network-based surrogate and reduced-order model generation options for efficient stochastic analyses. Lastly, a reinforcement learning capability has been added to MOOSE-STM for the interactive control and optimization of complex multiphysics problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Molecular Charge-Transfer Model for Multistep Auger–Meitner Decay Cascade Dynamics

The fragmentation of molecular cations following inner-shell decay processes in molecules containing heavy elements underpins the X-ray damage effects observed in X-ray scattering measurements of biological and chemical materials, as well as in medical applications involving Auger electron-emitting radionuclides. Traditionally, these processes are modeled using simulations that describe the electronic structure at an atomic level, thereby omitting molecular bonding effects. This work addresses the gap by introducing a novel approach that couples Auger–Meitner decay to nuclear dynamics across multiple decay steps, by developing a decay spawning dynamics algorithm and applying it to potential energy surfaces characterized with ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. We showcase the approach on a model decay cascade following K-shell ionization of IBr and subsequent Kβ fluorescence decay. We examine two competing channels that undergo two decay steps, resulting in ion pairs with a total 3+ charge state. This approach provides a continuous description of the electron transfer dynamics occurring during the multistep decay cascade and molecular fragmentation, revealing the combined inner-shell decay and charge transfer time scale to be approximately 75 fs. In conclusion, our computed kinetic energies of ion fragments show good agreement with experimental data.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Capabilities in Estimating Snow Mass Intercepted in Conifer Canopies With Tree Sway Monitoring

Snowpack accumulation in forested watersheds depends on the amount of snow intercepted in the canopy and its partitioning into sublimation, unloading, and melt. A lack of canopy snow measurements limits our ability to evaluate models that simulate canopy processes and predict snowpack. We tested whether monitoring changes in wind-induced tree sway is a viable technique for detecting snow interception and quantifying canopy snow water equivalent (SWE). Over a 6 year period in Colorado, we monitored hourly sway of two conifers, each instrumented with an accelerometer sampling at 12 Hz. We developed an approach to distinguish changes in sway frequency due to thermal effects on tree rigidity versus intercepted snow mass. Over 60% of days with canopy snow had a sway signal that could not be distinguished from thermal effects. However, larger changes in tree sway could not generally be attributed to thermal effects, and canopy snow was present 93%–95% of the time, as confirmed with classified PhenoCam imagery. Using sway tests, we converted changes in sway to canopy SWE, which were correlated with total snowstorm amounts from a nearby SNOTEL site (Spearman r = 0.72 to 0.80, p < 0.001). Greater canopy SWE was associated with storm temperatures between -7°C and 0°C and wind speeds less than 4 m s -1 . Lower canopy SWE prevailed in storms with lower temperatures and higher wind speeds. Monitoring tree sway is a viable approach for quantifying canopy SWE, but challenges remain in converting changes in sway to mass and distinguishing thermal and snow mass effects on tree sway.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). With an emphasis on supporting the DOE's energy mission, understanding and quantifying how well the model simulates water cycle processes is of particular importance. Here, we evaluate E3SM version 1.0 (v1.0) for its ability to represent atmospheric rivers (ARs), which play significant roles in water vapor transport and precipitation. The characteristics and precipitation associated with global ARs in E3SM at standard resolution (1∘ × 1∘) are compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). Global patterns of AR frequencies in E3SM show high degrees of correlation (≥0.97) with MERRA2 and low mean absolute errors (MAEs; <1 %) annually, seasonally, and across different ensemble members. However, some large-scale condition biases exist, leading to AR biases – most significant of which are the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a stronger and/or equatorward-shifted subtropical jet during boreal and austral winters, and enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer. By comparing atmosphere-only and fully coupled simulations, we attribute the sources of the biases to the atmospheric component or to a coupling response. Using relationships revealed in Dong et al. (2021), we provide evidence showing the stronger North Pacific jet in winter and the enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer, associated with E3SM's double ITCZ and related weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), respectively, which are significant sources of the AR biases found in the coupled simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical investigation of microbial quorum sensing under various flow conditions

Microorganisms efficiently coordinate phenotype expressions through a decision-making process known as quorum sensing (QS). We investigated QS amongst distinct, spatially distributed microbial aggregates under various flow conditions using a process-driven numerical model. Model simulations assess the conditions suitable for QS induction and quantify the importance of advective transport of signaling molecules. In addition, advection dilutes signaling molecules so that faster flow conditions require higher microbial densities, faster signal production rates, or higher sensitivities to signaling molecules to induce QS. However, autoinduction of signal production can substantially increase the transport distance of signaling molecules in both upstream and downstream directions. We present empirical approximations to the solutions of the advection–diffusion–reaction equation that describe the concentration profiles of signaling molecules for a wide range of flow and reaction rates. These empirical relationships, which predict the distribution of dissolved solutes along pore channels, allow to quantitatively estimate the effective communication distances amongst multiple microbial aggregates without further numerical simulations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Well Does the DOE Global Storm Resolving Model Simulate Clouds and Precipitation Over the Amazon?

This study assesses a 40-day 3.25-km global simulation of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Model (SCREAMv0) using high-resolution ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign. SCREAMv0 reasonably captures the diurnal timing of boundary layer clouds yet underestimates the boundary layer cloud fraction and mid-level congestus. SCREAMv0 well replicates the precipitation diurnal cycle, however it exhibits biases in the precipitation cluster size distribution compared to scanning radar observations. Specifically, SCREAMv0 overproduces clusters smaller than 128 km, and does not form enough large clusters. Such biases suggest an inhibition of convective upscale growth, preventing isolated deep convective clusters from evolving into larger mesoscale systems. This model bias is partially attributed to the misrepresentation of land-atmosphere coupling. This study highlights the potential use of high-resolution ground-based observations to diagnose convective processes in global storm resolving model simulations, identify key model deficiencies, and guide future process-oriented model sensitivity tests and detailed analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2020

Land Model Testbed: Accelerating Development, Benchmarking and Analysis of Land Surface Models

A Land Model Testbed (LMT), designed to provide a computational framework for systematically assessing model fidelity and supporting rapid development of complex multiscale models, offers a general-purpose workflow for conducting large ensemble simulations of multiple land surface models, post-processing large volumes of model output, and evaluating model results. It leverages existing tools for launching model simulations and the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for assessing model fidelity through comparison with best-available observational datasets. Increased complexity and proliferation of uncertain parameters in process representations in land surface models has driven the need for frequent and intensive testing and evaluating of models to quantify uncertainties and optimize parameters such that results are consistent with observations. The LMT described here meets these needs by providing tools to run thousands of ensemble simulations simultaneously and post-process their output files, by automating execution of an enhanced version of ILAMB with site-specific benchmarks and multivariate functional relationships, and by offering ensemble diagnostics and a customizable dashboard for displaying model performance metrics and associated graphics. We envision the LMT capabilities will serve as a foundational computational resource for a proposed user facility focused on terrestrial multiscale model--data integration.

Sreepathi, Sarat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling exports of dissolved organic carbon from landscapes: a review of challenges and opportunities

Inland waters receive large quantities of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils and act as conduits for the lateral transport of this terrestrially derived carbon, ultimately storing, mineralizing, or delivering it to oceans. The lateral DOC flux plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, and numerous models have been developed to estimate the DOC export from different landscapes. We reviewed 34 published models and compared their characteristics to identify challenges in model applications and opportunities for future model development. We classified these models into three types: indicator-driven, hydrology-forced, and process-based DOC export simulation models. They differ mainly in their environmental inputs, simulation approaches for soil DOC production, leaching from soils to inland waters, and transit through inland waters. It is essential to consider landscape characteristics, climate conditions, available data, and research questions when selecting the most appropriate model. Given the substantial assumptions associated with these models, sufficient measurements are required to benchmark estimates. Accurate accounting of terrestrially derived DOC export to oceans requires incorporating the DOC produced in aquatic ecosystems and deposited with rainwater; otherwise, global export estimates may be overestimated by 40.7%. Additionally, improving the representation of mineralization and burial processes in inland waters allows for more accurate accounting of carbon sequestration through land ecosystems. When all the inland water processes are ignored or assuming DOC leaching is equivalent to DOC export, the loss of soil carbon through this lateral flux could be underestimated by 43.9%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive modeling of a subcritical pulverized-coal power plant for optimization: Parameter estimation, validation, and application

As renewable power generation deployment increases, fossil fuel plants are increasingly required to operate more flexibly. Many coal-fired power plants were originally designed to operate at base load and do not operate optimally at partial load. Predictive first-principles plant-wide models can be employed to identify opportunities for flexibility improvements and diagnose low-load operating issues. This paper describes the application of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES) to model and optimize flexible power plant operations. The key benefits of using IDAES are that it provides an open-source, fully equation-oriented modeling framework for efficient modular model construction, reuse, and customization, together with a mathematical optimization framework leveraging powerful, state-of-the-art solvers. The process systems engineering workflow from predictive process simulation to parameter estimation, model validation, and plant optimization is applicable to a variety of existing and next-generation energy systems as well as other chemical and environmental processes. Here, to demonstrate this capability, a physics-based, steady-state model was developed to improve full- and part-load performance of the Escalante Generating Station, a 245 MWe (net) subcritical pulverized coal-fired power plant owned and operated by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association. Specifically, sixty-nine model parameters were simultaneously estimated from several months of operating data enabling prediction of flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and steam quality throughout the plant. The validated model was leveraged by Escalante to reduce the minimum operating load from 90 MW to 50 MW by diagnosing a low-load water-hammer issue, enabling coal usage and emissions reductions during periods of low power demand. Additionally, opportunities for heat rate reduction (i.e., efficiency improvement) through a steeper sliding-pressure approach to load-following and optimization of other boiler operating variables were also identified and quantified. For example, a potential efficiency improvement of 0.7 percentage points was observed at half-load operation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing a process-structure-property-performance framework for SLS additive manufacturing through integrated multiscale modeling

This study presents a comprehensive suite of high-fidelity computational models that integrate multiscale and multiphysics simulations to capture the full Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) additive manufacturing process—from initial melting and solidification to mechanical response under external loads. Process simulations are linked with mechanical analysis through Representative Volume Elements (RVEs), establishing a process-structure–property-performance framework. The interaction between laser light and polyamide 12 (PA12) powder is modeled, accounting for laser characteristics and the optical, thermal, and geometrical properties of the powder. The heat source is incorporated into a heat transfer model, coupled with crystallization kinetics and densification models to predict material density and crystallinity. The porosity distribution from the densification model and crystallinity interpolated from experimental data are used to construct the RVEs. A multi-mechanism constitutive model is then calibrated using mechanical tests to predict the stress–strain response. Simulation results show good agreement with experimental data in terms of porosity, crystallinity, and mechanical performance when sufficient laser power (62 W or higher) is used. This research supports the inverse design of 3D-printed structures by introducing a high-fidelity framework that combines multiscale and multiphysics modeling with experimental calibration for predictive and performance-driven additive manufacturing.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Produced Water and Waste Heat-aided Blowdown Water Treatment: Using Chemical and Energy Synergisms for Value Creation

The project objective was to develop a cooling blowdown water (BDW) treatment process utilizing produced water (PW) and low-grade heat to maximize water reuse and saleable by-product generation while reducing chemical and energy footprints of the treatment. The proposed treatment process consists of mixing, softening, organics and suspended solids removal, reverse osmosis (RO), thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis. BDW samples collected from a local coal-fired power plant and PW samples from two shale gas production wells were used in this study. Each treatment unit was first designed and tested to quantify its treatment efficiency, and its chemical and energy requirements. In addition, a process model was developed and model simulations were conducted based on the experimental results and literature data to optimize the treatment process. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to quantify chemical and energy savings as well as production of 10-lb brine as a saleable product. With the field-collected BDW and PW samples, mixing experiments determined a volumetric mixing ratio 10:1 (BDW:PW) resulted in the best performance of multivalent ions removal and largest chemical savings for softening. Softening of the BDW/PW mixtures using alkaline chemicals (Na 2 CO 3 and NaOH) achieved 95%-100% removal of scaling-forming cations (Ca, Mg, Fe, Ba, Sr) and 60% of silicon, and 10% of total organic carbon (TOC). The mixing and softening treatments yielded an effluent with total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 23 g/L. Activated carbon (AC) filtration removed TOC to a low level (< 3 mg/L) and further removed remaining scale-forming divalent metals and silica from the softened water. The AC filtration resulted in a slight reduction of TDS from 23 g/L to 20 g/L, leaving behind only mostly monovalent ions (i.e., sodium and chloride) in the filtered water. These pretreatments yielded a feed water that met the criteria of the downstream reverse osmosis (RO) to prevent membrane fouling. A cross-flow RO system was used to further concentrate the TDS of the AC effluent. Various factors including TDS, pH, and applied pressure were examined and optimal conditions were determined for the co-treatment process. An integrated process consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration and RO was used to treat a continuous flow (0.25 – 1.2 L/min, or 0.07 – 0.32 gpm) and successfully generated RO permeate as product water (TDS < 0.5 g/L) for reuse in cooling operation, and a concentrate (TDS ~ 45 g/L) to be further treated in a thermal desalination unit. These flow rates meet the FOA’s criterion of 0.01 – 1 gpm. Overall, the co-treatment of BDW/PW allowed shorter ramp-up time compared to treatment of BDW alone. It resulted in 40% and 55% savings of Na 2 CO 3(s) and NaOH, respectively, compared to treating the BDW and PW individually for the same level of softening. The co-treatment also resulted in a 29% energy saving compared to treatment of BDW only for the level of TDS concentration. A thermal desalination system was designed using CFD simulations and manufactured in the WVU Innovation Hub for further treatment of the RO concentrate to generate 10-lb brine. The system has a design flow rate of 2 gpm and has been successfully tested. A bench-scale brine electrolysis system was developed for on-site generation of chlorine/hypochlorite (Cl 2 /OCl - ) and caustic soda (NaOH) as useful chemicals for the co-treatment process. Using salt solutions (0.5 M and 1 M), the system achieved faradaic efficiencies of 93%-97% and 70%-77% for caustic soda and chlorine/hypochlorite generation, respectively. An economic analysis showed that the electricity costs for on-site generation of these chemicals were significantly lower than the chemical prices offered by suppliers. An industrial-scale process model consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration, RO, thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis was developed using the Aspen Plus V9 in conjunction with Aspen Custom Modeler V9. The model serves as a solvable Aspen Plus model and as basis to form the costing infrastructure. In addition, techno-economic analysis considering capital, operating, and transportation costs was conducted. An optimization solution showed that produced water for mixing is still advantageous in low quantities. The optimum solution approaches a leveled cost of water (LCW) of 2 $/m 3 which becomes cost competitive with nominal water treatment prices.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of interactive and prescribed agricultural ammonia emissions for simulating atmospheric composition in CAM-chem

Abstract. Ammonia (NH3) plays a central role in the chemistry of inorganic secondary aerosols in the atmosphere. The largest emission sector for NH3 is agriculture, where NH3 is volatilized from livestock wastes and fertilized soils. Although the NH3 volatilization from soils is driven by the soil temperature and moisture, many atmospheric chemistry models prescribe the emission using yearly emission inventories and climatological seasonal variations. Here we evaluate an alternative approach where the NH3 emissions from agriculture are simulated interactively using the process model FANv2 (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen, version 2) coupled to the Community Atmospheric Model with Chemistry (CAM-chem). We run a set of 6-year global simulations using the NH3 emission from FANv2 and three global emission inventories (EDGAR, CEDS and HTAP) and evaluate the model performance using a global set of multi-component (atmospheric NH3 and NH4+, and NH4+ wet deposition) in situ observations. Over East Asia, Europe and North America, the simulations with different emissions perform similarly when compared with the observed geographical patterns. The seasonal distributions of NH3 emissions differ between the inventories, and the comparison to observations suggests that both FANv2 and the inventories would benefit from more realistic timing of fertilizer applications. The largest differences between the simulations occur over data-scarce regions. In Africa, the emissions simulated by FANv2 are 200 %–300 % higher than in the inventories, and the available in situ observations from western and central Africa, as well as NH3 retrievals from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument, are consistent with the higher NH3 emissions as simulated by FANv2. Overall, in simulating ammonia and ammonium concentrations over regions with detailed regional emission inventories, the inventories based on these details (HTAP, CEDS) capture the atmospheric concentrations and their seasonal variability the best. However these inventories cannot capture the impact of meteorological variability on the emissions, nor can these inventories couple the emissions to the biogeochemical cycles and their changes with climate drivers. Finally, we show with sensitivity experiments that the simulated time-averaged nitrate concentration in air is sensitive to the temporal resolution of the NH3 emissions. Over the CASTNET monitoring network covering the US, resolving the NH3 emissions hourly instead monthly reduced the positive model bias from approximately 80 % to 60 % of the observed yearly mean nitrate concentration. This suggests that some of the commonly reported overestimation of aerosol nitrate over the US may be related to unresolved temporal variability in the NH3 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗