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DOE OSTI2024

Bid-in Price-Sensitive Load: A Comparison with Fixed Load in a Realistic Test System

Bulk power systems operations, in both simulation and practice, are often built on the principle of minimizing production costs, which assumes to first order that demand is fixed and that the only degrees of freedom for balancing generation and load are supply-side unit commitment and dispatch decisions. The purpose of this report is to interrogate the value of welfare-maximizing markets that not only physically balance demand and supply but also ensure that market outcomes provide consumer value by directly maximizing welfare, defined as the value of consumption minus production costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Improved Forecasting Can Increase the Bulk Power System Value of Price-Responsive Electric Vehicle Managed Charging

Personal light-duty vehicle (LDV) electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) can reduce power system costs by better aligning electric vehicle (EV) charging with locations and times of low energy cost or infrastructure use. The need to coordinate charging demand across thousands to millions of vehicles while preserving mobility service is a barrier to realizing the value of EVMC. Price-responsive dispatch mechanisms like time-of-use rates (TOU) and hourly real-time prices (RTP) are attractive compared to direct load control (DLC) because they only require one-way communications and local controls. However, increasing participation in price responsive mechanisms can induce costly-to-serve spikes in load and otherwise increase, rather than decrease, production costs. We quantify the ability of improved EVMC forecasting to sustain savings from price responsive mechanisms beyond the limit of 14% of LDVs actively participating observed in previous work. Perfect forecasting of price-responsive EV load makes TOU and RTP value-competitive with a low-error DLC formulation with up to 27% (within-week flexibility) to 45% or more (within-session flexibility) of LDVs participating in EVMC in an envisioned New England power system with 84% clean energy. Additional costs of implementing DLC should be no more than tens of dollars per vehicle-year if DLC is to be value-competitive with accurately forecast price-responsive EVMC for double-digit percentage shares of LDVs participating.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fish Friendly Water Rules' Impact On the Power Grid with High VRE Levels

Columbia River basin multipurpose reservoirs are operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. When conventional thermal power plants are retired, hydropower flexibility balances the wind and solar variability of the power grid and provides grid services to maximize the high renewable power absorption. On the other hand, over-reliance on hydropower could harm the river basin fish habitat. For example, water release pulses during peak electricity demand hours and shorter-term water release variation could harm the fish population. Power grid planners, environmentalists, Columbia Basin tribes, hydro regulators, and water resource planners work together to understand the impacts of Columbia River basin operation in a fish-friendly way in the current power grid and power grid with higher renewable power share. We examine different levels of renewable share in the Western Interconnection to understand the multiple weather years and future climate projection and operating scenario impact on the power grid and water system. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

environmental↗

NASA NTRS1994

A measurement system for large, complex software programs

This paper describes measurement systems required to forecast, measure, and control activities for large, complex software development and support programs. Initial software cost and quality analysis provides the foundation for meaningful management decisions as a project evolves. In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between the functionality, quality, cost, and schedule of the product must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. This balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and developers with respect to the processes being employed.

Rone, Kyle Y.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Estimating the cost of production stoppage

Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

Delionback, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

Bao, Han P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A review of power system planning and operational models for flexibility assessment in high solar energy penetration scenarios

Not Available

Emmanuel, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Blue Rock CropSpanPV - Low Cost Racking for Agricultural Solar Photovoltaics

In this work, a total of four solar panel layouts, applied to Agrivoltaics, are investigated. This study presents two hypotheses: 1. Prefabrication - Lower total cost can be achieved by constructing a pre-assembled, pre-wired solar array in a factory, with automation, then rapidly deploying it in the field. 2. Tension Structures - Using tension structures in a way to suspend an overhead solar array also reduces costs when compared to conventional support methods. Designs are presented for frames to hold the panels. Configurations are advanced to connect the frames into arrays. Supports and foundations to hold the arrays in the desired layout are calculated, selected and presented. Cost models are prepared for the four layouts, which include definition of the business enterprise, the manufacturing operation, and the required facility for production at scale. Cost models include, detail material and task/labor take-offs for both manufacturing and installation. Comparisons with conventional system adapted to Agrivoltaics reveal that the two hypotheses do not hold true. A prefabricated array requires additional material that is not needed in the base system and the cost of this additional material is not outweighed by the cost savings of reduced field installation. The cost of wire rope for a tension structure does result in an economy of material, however, the cost of end connections and tensioning devices adds significantly to the cost of the overall tension structure. Foundation loads with tension structures, especially the large wind uplift seen with a fixed tilt solar array, impose significant constraints and high costs. The following conclusions are recommended for further consideration: 1. Best Case Agrivoltaic Configuration - The best value/lowest cost configuration for agrivoltaics is the installation of solar panels mounted on a single axis tracker in either a 2-in-portrait or 2-in landscape arrangement. This is useful for grazing lands and for staple crops which require high light levels. These applications represent the vast majority of the potential agrivoltaic market. Important elements in this configuration are the specific geometric layout coordinated with the various field operations and a control system linked between the farm equipment and single axis tracker. The control system is to monitor location and orientation, then actively tilt the solar panels or brake the field equipment to provide clearance and avoid collisions. 2. Long Span Applications - The use of tension structures for an overhead fixed tilt array is beneficial where long spans are a necessity, especially where the base support in the project location has consolidated rock near the surface or some other solid structure. One application is spanning wide irrigation canals. Another may be as an installation at the top deck of parking structures. 3. Direct Ground Mount Configuration – Having skids at the base of a pre-fabricated array that extend when the array is deployed, could be a successful design. This could be a useful strategy for dense, flat, ground-mount configurations like that employed by a couple of successful commercial operations (5G Maverick and Erthos). Arrays would be orientated north and south, deployed very low on prepared grade. Arrays would be aligned closely next to each other and anchored with small ground screws or simply with ballast. This same product arrangement could be very useful for rapid deployment and set-up of solar arrays for temporary deployments, disaster response and the military operations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Octane Gasoline from Lignocellulosic Biomass via Syngas and Methanol/Dimethyl Ether Intermediates: 2020 State of Technology

The 2020 state of technology (SOT) serves as an update to the 2019 SOT report and details the techno-economic analysis (TEA) results for producing high-octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL). This report only describes changes to the experimental and analysis results from previous SOTs; more details regarding the full process design can be found in the 2015 design report. The conversion pathway presented in this report includes the gasification of biomass, steam reforming and cleanup of the syngas, followed by the conversion of the syngas to HOG via methanol and dimethyl-ether (DME) intermediates. Research efforts in 2020 included the collection of experimental results over a variety of isobutane (iC4) to DME ratios in the feed of the DME-to-HOG reactor, enabling the TEA to identify the effect on modeled product yield and cost. Additionally, a significant re-build of the Aspen Plus model allowed for better integration of new research, however underlying conceptual and economic assumptions remain the same as those detailed in the 2015 deign report. The 2020 SOT also considers the potential for federal carbon tax credits from CO 2 capture in the acid-gas removal step and the impact on the final minimum fuel selling price.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1981

The SYSGEN user package

The user documentation of the SYSGEN model and its links with other simulations is described. The SYSGEN is a production costing and reliability model of electric utility systems. Hydroelectric, storage, and time dependent generating units are modeled in addition to conventional generating plants. Input variables, modeling options, output variables, and reports formats are explained. SYSGEN also can be run interactively by using a program called FEPS (Front End Program for SYSGEN). A format for SYSGEN input variables which is designed for use with FEPS is presented.

Carlson, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Jet fuel property changes and their effect on producibility and cost in the U.S., Canada, and Europe

The effects of changes in properties and blending stocks on the refinery output and cost of jet fuel in the U.S., Canada, and Europe were determined. Computerized refinery models that minimize production costs and incorporated a 1981 cost structure and supply/demand projections to the year 2010 were used. Except in the West U.S., no changes in jet fuel properties were required to meet all projected demands, even allowing for deteriorating crude qualities and changes in competing product demand. In the West U.S., property changes or the use of cracked blendstocks were projected to be required after 1990 to meet expected demand. Generally, relaxation of aromatics and freezing point, or the use of cracked stocks produced similar results, i.e., jet fuel output could be increased by up to a factor of three or its production cost lowered by up to $10/cu m. High quality hydrocracked stocks are now used on a limited basis to produce jet fuel. The conversion of U.S. and NATO military forces from wide-cut to kerosene-based jet fuel is addressed. This conversion resulted in increased costs of several hundred million dollars annually. These costs can be reduced by relaxing kerosene jet fuel properties, using cracked stocks and/or considering the greater volumetric energy content of kerosene jet fuel.

Varga, G. M., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating production cost for large-scale seaweed farms

Seaweed farming has the potential to produce feedstocks for many applications, including food, feeds, fertilizers, biostimulants, and biofuels. Seaweeds have advantages over land-based biomass in that they require no freshwater inputs and no allocation of arable land. To date, seaweed farming has not been practiced at scales relevant to meaningful biofuel production. Here we describe a techno-economic model of large-scale seaweed farms and its application to the cultivation of the cool temperate species Saccharina latissima (sugar kelp) and the tropical seaweed Eucheumatopsis isiformis. At farm scales of 1000 ha or more, our model suggests that farm gate production costs in waters up to 200 km from the onshore support base are likely to range between $\$$200 and $\$$300 per dry tonne. The model also suggests that production costs below $\$$100 per dry tonne may be achievable in some settings, which would make these seaweeds economically competitive with land-based biofuel feedstocks. While encouraging, these model results and some assumptions on which they are based require further field validation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the imp~ct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

Joyner, Claude R.↗