Prognostics and Health Monitoring of Li Batteries: Application to Electric Vehicles
Presentation on Prognostics for Li-ion batteries in Electric Vehicles.
Li-Batteries↗
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PCoE Lecture Series: Python Prognostics Package Tutorial
Tutorial for the Python Prognostics Packages (Being considered for open source)
Prognostics↗
Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts
As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.
Systems Health Managent↗
Enabling in-time Prognostics with Surrogate Modeling through Physics-enhanced Dynamic Mode Decomposition Method
Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.
prognostics and health management↗
Predicting Maximum Temperatures of a Li-ion Battery on a Simulated Flight Profile using a Model-based Prognostics
One of the challenges in using Li-ion packs in aeronautics is their safety, and thermal runaway (TR) is a major concern. The current engineering solutions to prevent a Li-ion pack from a catastrophic TR require additional mass and volume to isolate cells. The excess mass could be reduced by improving detection and, thus, preventing a TR event. One of the possible early warning indicators of a TR is crossing a threshold temperature. We have developed an approach, based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to predict the likelihood of reaching the threshold temperature for simulated flight profiles. The current battery prognostics algorithms for aerospace predict state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) [1]. We extended this two-level algorithm to predict the maximum temperature during discharge. The amount of heat generated in a cell depends on factors such as cell chemistry, cell packaging, total cycles, operating temperature, and abuse history [2]. Our semi-empirical thermal model depends on three phenomenological parameters which account for those factors. In addition, a two-parameter reduced-order model is developed to predict the temperature rise for short bursts of “random-walk” (RW) discharge current sequence, which simulates a flight's current-loading profile. The performance of these models on different datasets and types of current loading will be presented. To predict the maximal temperatures for future cycles we must estimate the evolution of thermal parameters as the batteries age. It is found that the parameters of the 3-parametric thermal model cannot be estimated only from the RW data. To address the issue, we will present two alternative approaches: i) expanding the datasets to include discharge profiles beyond RWs; ii) model reduction to a two-parametric model. The two approaches will be illustrated by an application to the cycling data from a commercial LG 18650 cell. References: 1. M. Daigle, C.S. Kulkarni, End-of-discharge and End-of-life Prediction in Lithium-ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-based Aging Models, in: AIAA Infotech @ Aerospace, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, California, USA, 2016. 2. M. Börner, et. al, Correlation of aging and thermal stability of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries, Journal of Power Sources. 342 (2017) 382–392.
Thermal runaway↗
Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts
As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously approved and published information.
Systems Health Managent↗
Physics-informed Data-driven Degradation and Prognostic For Hydropower System
The hydropower system is a cyber-physical system, and the industry is experiencing high operation and maintenance (O&M) costs along with increasing unplanned outages, primarily due to aging equipment and new asset loading patterns. Current (O&M) practices in asset management are predominantly reactive rather than predictive and systematic. To address these challenges, a proposed physics-informed data-driven degradation model aims to simulate the health of components in various environments. Its purpose is to accurately characterize wear and fatigue in the pilot components of hydropower systems. Additionally, the model provides informed confidence in prognostic predictions concerning asset degradation and remaining life.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Development of a Prognostic Model to Identify the Suitable Definitive Radiation Therapy Candidates in de Novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Real-World Study
We aimed to develop an accurate prognostic model to identify suitable candidates for definitive radiation therapy (DRT) in addition to palliative chemotherapy (PCT) among patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC).
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
From Mouse to Human: Cellular Morphometric Subtype Learned From Mouse Mammary Tumors Provides Prognostic Value in Human Breast Cancer
Mouse models of cancer provide a powerful tool for investigating all aspects of cancer biology. In this study, we used our recently developed machine learning approach to identify the cellular morphometric biomarkers (CMB) from digital images of hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) micrographs of orthotopic Trp53-null mammary tumors (n = 154) and to discover the corresponding cellular morphometric subtypes (CMS). Of the two CMS identified, CMS-2 was significantly associated with shorter survival (p = 0.0084). We then evaluated the learned CMB and corresponding CMS model in MMTV-Erbb2 transgenic mouse mammary tumors (n = 53) in which CMS-2 was significantly correlated with the presence of metastasis (p = 0.004). We next evaluated the mouse CMB and CMS model on The Cancer Genome Atlas breast cancer (TCGA-BRCA) cohort (n = 1017). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed significantly shorter overall survival (OS) of CMS-2 patients compared to CMS-1 patients (p = 0.024) and added significant prognostic value in multi-variable analysis of clinical and molecular factors, namely, age, pathological stage, and PAM50 molecular subtype. Thus, application of CMS to digital images of routine workflow H&E preparations can provide unbiased biological stratification to inform patient care.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
An evaluation of prognostic factors, oncologic outcomes, and management for primary and recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva
Objective: To evaluate prognostic factors, outcomes, and management patterns of patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. Methods: One hundred sixty-four women were retrospectively identified with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva treated at our institution between 1/1996–12/2018. Descriptive statistics were performed on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. The χ 2 tests and t-tests were used to compare categorical variables and continuous variables, respectively. Recurrence free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median follow-up was 52.5 months. Five-year RFS was 67.9%, 60.0%, 42.1%, and 20.0% for stage I–IV, respectively. Five-year DSS was 86.2%, 81.6%, 65.0%, and 42.9% for stage I–IV, respectively. On multivariate analysis, positive margins predicted overall RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18–10.73; p=0.025), while presence of lichen sclerosus on pathology (HR=2.78; 95% CI=1.30–5.91; p=0.008) predicted local RFS. OS was predicted by nodal involvement (HR=2.51; 95% CI=1.02–6.13; p=0.043) and positive margins (HR=5.19; 95% CI=2.03–13.26; p=0.001). Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved RFS (p=0.016) and DSS (p=0.012) in node-positive patients. Median survival after treatment of local, groin, and pelvic/distant recurrence was 52, 8, and 5 months, respectively. Conclusion: For primary treatment, more conservative surgical approaches can be considered with escalation of treatment in patients with concurrent precursor lesions, positive margins, and/or nodal involvement. Further studies are warranted to improve risk stratification in order to optimize treatment paradigms for vulvar cancer patients.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Abstract. This paper describes the addition of a stratospheric prognostic aerosol (SPA) capability – developed with the goal of accurately simulating sulfate aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere – in the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 2 (E3SMv2). The implementation includes changes to the four-mode Modal Aerosol Module microphysics in the stratosphere to allow for larger particle growth and more accurate stratospheric aerosol lifetime following the Pinatubo eruption. E3SMv2-SPA reasonably reproduces stratospheric aerosol lifetime, burden, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere flux when compared to remote sensing observations. E3SMv2-SPA also has close agreement with the interactive chemistry–climate model CESM2-WACCM (Community Earth System Model version 2–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) – which has a more complete chemical treatment – and the observationally constrained, prescribed volcanic aerosol treatment in E3SMv2. Global stratospheric aerosol size distributions identify the nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol from volcanically injected SO2 from both major and minor volcanic eruptions from 1991 to 1993. The modeled aerosol effective radius is consistently lower than satellite and in situ measurements (max differences of ∼ 30 %). Comparisons with in situ size distribution samples indicate that this simulated underestimation in both E3SMv2-SPA and CESM2-WACCM is due to overly small accumulation and coarse-mode aerosols 6–18 months post-eruption, with E3SMv2-SPA simulating ∼ 50 % of the coarse-mode geometric mean diameters of observations 11 months post-eruption. Effective radii from the models and observations are used to calculate offline scattering and absorption efficiencies to explore the implications of smaller simulated aerosol size for the Pinatubo climate impacts. Scattering efficiencies at wavelengths of peak solar irradiance (∼ 0.5 µm) are 10 %–80 % higher for daily samples in models relative to observations through 1993, suggesting higher diffuse radiation at the surface and a larger cooling effect in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol; absorption efficiencies at the peak wavelengths of outgoing terrestrial radiation (∼ 10 µm) are 15 %–40 % lower for daily samples in models relative to observations, suggesting an underestimation in stratospheric heating in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol. These potential biases are based on aerosol size alone and do not take into account differences in the aerosol number. The overall agreement of E3SMv2-SPA with observations and its similar performance to the well-validated CESM2-WACCM makes E3SMv2-SPA a viable alternative to simulating climate impacts from stratospheric sulfate aerosols.
Brown, Hunter York (ORCID:0000000218147874)↗
Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets
Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.
Arctic clouds↗
Serial electrocardiograms - Their reliability and prognostic validity over a 24-year period
Reliability and prognostic validity of serial electrocardiograms in men over 24 year period, and relationship of observed changes to pathological or physiological variables
DIAGNOSIS↗
Determining the parameters of the prognostic operator for undamped fluctuations by the use of the D sub m(kappa; alpha 1,..., alpha sub m)
The prognostic operator is defined as the matrix or integral operation which, when applied to a set of known values of the vector for various earlier moments of time, predicts a value for the vector at a future moment by the amount ahead of time. If the vector represents a function that decays with time, then the predicted values of the function are given as series expansions in terms of the same functions but with unknown coefficients if some change in the process occurs at the moment of prediction. As examples of such changes are considered: (1) the circulation mechanisms of the atmosphere under the influence of solar activity; (2) brightness fields fluctuations; and (3) wave formations or currents in the ocean after a change in wind field.
Dmitriyev, A. A.↗
The growth of prognostic differences between GLAS model forecasts from SAT and NOSAT initial conditions
A study has been conducted to determine the cause of a major synoptic difference in the 72 h GLAS model forecasts from 0000 GMT 19 February 1976 that resulted from the inclusion of satellite data. The prognostic differences that resulted in diverging cyclone paths between the forecast that included satellite temperature soundings (SAT) and the forecast that excluded satellite sounding data (NOSAT) have been traced to initial state differences in the upper level wind and temperature patterns. These modifications enhanced the variation of thermal vorticity and thermal advection across the cyclone center and in the SAT case, gave a greater initial rate of movement of the upper-level vorticity maximum associated with the surface cyclone.
Atlas, R.↗
Forecasting sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center using the Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale Model (P 3DM)
A Prognostic Three-Dimensional Model (P3DM) to produce 1- to 12-hr predictions of sea breeze convective (SBC) storms at KSC is described. The P3DM was developed to account for a scale of about 10 km, interactions between surface heat and moisture fluxes, boundary layer convergence, the movement of moisture into cloud formation zones, and alterations in the convective potential in the lower levels of the atmosphere during the diurnal cycle. Initialized with wind, temperature, specific humidity and local water temperature data, the model allows for the distortion of the boundary layer moisture and thermal fields by sea breeze conditions. The results of three simulations of events leading to the onset of SBC storms are presented to demonstrate the model's capabilities, and techniques which may enhance the accuracy of the predictions are discussed.
Lyons, Walter A.↗
The numerical simulation of the evolution of a Saharan dust outbreak by using a general prognostic aerosol model
A three-dimensional model is developed that explicitly predicts the evolution of the spatial distributions of aerosols utilizing a time-dependent, initial value prognostic aerosol model based on aerosol physicochemical processes, a knowledge of aerosol sinks and sources, and the predicted motions of the atmosphere. These models serve a useful purpose in determining standardized aerosol spectra for utilization in radiative transfer calculations. The first numerical prediction of a Saharan dust outbreak evolution is described. It is shown that the results are in qualitative agreement with measurements despite the fact that in this preliminary simulation the generation of the dust depended upon several empirically based assumptions. IR satellite photographs taken during GATE are being examined in an attempt to determine the sources of the dust.
Westphal, Douglas L.↗
Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig
The NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a new Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig to evaluate the performance of sensors and algorithms in predicting failures of rolling element bearings for aeronautics and space applications. The failure progression of both conventional and hybrid (ceramic rolling elements, metal races) bearings can be tested from fault initiation to total failure. The effects of different lubricants on bearing life can also be evaluated. Test conditions monitored and recorded during the test include load, oil temperature, vibration, and oil debris. New diagnostic research instrumentation will also be evaluated for hybrid bearing damage detection. This paper summarizes the capabilities of this new test rig.
Dempsey, Paula J.↗