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Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

WLCG Web Proxy Auto Discovery for Dynamically Created Web Proxies

The WLCG Web Proxy Auto Discovery (WPAD) service provides a convenient mechanism for jobs running anywhere on the WLCG to dynamically discover web proxy cache servers that are nearby. The web proxy caches are general purpose for a number of different http applications, but different applications have different usage characteristics and not all proxy caches are engineered to work with the heaviest loads. For this reason, the initial sources of information for WLCG WPAD were the static configurations that ATLAS and CMS maintain for the Conditions data that they read through the Frontier Distributed Database system, which is the most demanding popular WLCG application for web proxy caches. That works well for use at traditional statically defined WLCG sites, but now that usage of commercial clouds is increasing, there is also a need for web proxy caches to dynamically register themselves as they are created. A package called Shoal had already been created to manage dynamically created web proxy caches. This paper describes the integration of the Shoal package into the WLCG WPAD system, such that both statically and dynamically created web proxy caches can be located from a single source. It also describes other improvements to the WLCG WPAD system since the last CHEP publication.

Dykstra, Dave↗

Small-scale characterization of vine plant root water uptake via 3-D electrical resistivity tomography and mise-à-la-masse method

The investigation of plant roots is inherently difficult and often neglected.Being out of sight, roots are often out of mind. Nevertheless, roots play a key rolein the exchange of mass and energy between soil and the atmosphere, in addition tothe many practical applications in agriculture. In this paper, we propose amethod for roots imaging based on the joint use of two electricalnoninvasive methods: electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) andmise-à-la-masse (MALM). The approach is based on the key assumption that theplant root system acts as an electrically conductive body, so that injectingelectrical current into the plant stem will ultimately result in the injectionof current into the subsoil through the root system, and particularly throughthe root terminations via hair roots. Evidence from field data, showing thatvoltage distribution is very different whether current is injected into thetree stem or in the ground, strongly supports this hypothesis. The proposedprocedure involves a stepwise inversion of both ERT and MALM data thatultimately leads to the identification of electrical resistivity (ER)distribution and of the current injection root distribution in thethree-dimensional soil space. This, in turn, is a proxy to the active (hair)root density in the ground. We tested the proposed procedure on syntheticdata and, more importantly, on field data collected in a vineyard, where theestimated depth of the root zone proved to be in agreement with literature onsimilar crops. The proposed noninvasive approach is a step forward towards abetter quantification of root structure and functioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smart Proxy Modeling of SACROC CO2-EOR

Large CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects usually contain an abundance of geological and good performance data. While this volume of data leads to robust models, it often results in difficult to manage, slow-running numerical flow models. To dramatically reduce the numerical run-times associated with the traditional simulation techniques, this work investigated the feasibility of using artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies to develop a smart proxy model of the Scurry Area Canyon Reef Operators Committee (SACROC) oilfield, located in the Permian Basin, TX, USA. Smart proxy models can be used to facilitate injection-production optimization for CO2-EOR projects. The use of a coupled grid-based, and well-based surrogate reservoir model (SRM) (also known as smart proxy modeling) was investigated as the base of the optimization. A fit-for-purpose coupled SRM, which executes in seconds, was built based on high-resolution numerical reservoir simulation models of the northern platform of the SACROC oilfield. This study is unique as it is the first application of coupled SRM at a large oilfield. The developed SRM was able to identify the dynamic reservoir properties (pressure, saturations, and component mole-fraction) at every grid-block, along with the production characteristics (pressure and rate) at each well. Recent attempts to use machine learning and pattern recognition to build proxy models have been simplistic, with limited predictive capabilities. The geological model used in this study is comprised of more than nine million grid blocks. The high correlation between the actual component and SRM, which can be visualized by mapping the properties, along with the fast footprint of the developed model demonstrate the successful application of this methodology.

Vida, Gholami↗

Jet wake from linearized hydrodynamics

We explore how to improve the hybrid model description of the particles originating from the wake that a jet produced in a heavy ion collision leaves in the droplet of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) through which it propagates, using linearized hydrodynamics on a background Bjorken flow. Jet energy and momentum loss described by the hybrid model become currents sourcing linearized hydrodynamics. By solving the linearized hydrodynamic equations numerically, we investigate the development of the wake in the dynamically evolving droplet of QGP, study the effect of viscosity, scrutinize energy-momentum conservation, and check the validity of the linear approximation. We find that linearized hydrodynamics works better in the viscous case because diffusive modes damp the energy-momentum perturbation produced by the jet. We calculate the distribution of particles produced from the jet wake by using the Cooper-Frye prescription and find that both the transverse momentum spectrum and the distribution of particles in azimuthal angle are similar in shape in linearized hydrodynamics and in the hybrid model. Their normalizations are different because the momentum-rapidity distribution in the linearized hydrodynamics analysis is more spread out, due to sound modes. Since the Bjorken flow has no transverse expansion, we explore the effect of transverse flow by using local boosts to add it into the Cooper-Frye formula. After including the effects of transverse flow in this way, the transverse momentum spectrum becomes harder: more particles with transverse momenta bigger than 2 GeV are produced than in the hybrid model. Although we defer implementing this analysis in a jet Monte Carlo, as would be needed to make quantitative comparisons to data, we gain a qualitative sense of how the jet wake may modify jet observables by computing proxies for two example observables: the lost energy recovered in a cone of varying open angle, and the fragmentation function. We find that linearized hydrodynamics with transverse flow effects added improves the description of the jet wake in the hybrid model in just the way that comparison to data indicates is needed. Our study illuminates a path to improving the description of the wake in the hybrid model, highlighting the need to take into account the effects of both transverse flow and the broadening of the energy-momentum perturbation in spacetime rapidity on particle production.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Grain Size Variations in the Murray Formation: Stratigraphic Evidence for Changing Depositional Environments in Gale Crater, Mars

The lowermost exposure of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, was interpreted as sediment deposited in an ancient lake based on data collected by the Curiosity rover. Constraining the stratigraphic extent and duration of this environment has important implications for the paleohydrology of Gale. Insights into early Martian environments and paleofluid flow velocity can be obtained from grain size in rocks. Visual inspection of grain size is not always available for rocks investigated at field sites on Mars due to limited image coverage. But grain sizes can also be estimated from the Gini Index Mean Score, a grain-size proxy that uses point-to-point chemical variations in ChemCam Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy data. Here, new Gini Index Mean Score results indicate that the Murray formation is dominated by mudstones with grains smaller than the spatial resolution of all rover cameras. Intervals of fine to coarse sandstone also are present, some of which are verified using observations of grain size and sedimentary structures in associated images. Overall, results demonstrate that most of the Murray consists of mudstone, suggesting settling of grains from suspension in low energy depositional environments such as lakes. Some of the mudstones contain desiccation cracks indicating periods of drying with a lowering of lake water level. However, beds and lenses of cross-bedded sandstones are common at specific intervals, suggesting episodes of fluvial and possibly eolian deposition. The persistence of lacustrine deposits interspersed with fluvial deposits suggests that liquid water was sustained on the Martian surface for tens of thousands to millions of years.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predictions of diffusion rates of large organic molecules in secondary organic aerosols using the Stokes–Einstein and fractional Stokes–Einstein relations

Information on the rate of diffusion of organic molecules within secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is needed to accurately predict the effects of SOA on climate and air quality. Diffusion can be important for predicting the growth, evaporation, and reaction rates of SOA under certain atmospheric conditions. Often, researchers have predicted diffusion rates of organic molecules within SOA using measurements of viscosity and the Stokes–Einstein relation ($D∝1/η$, where D is the diffusion coefficient and η is viscosity). However, the accuracy of this relation for predicting diffusion in SOA remains uncertain. Using rectangular area fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (rFRAP), we determined diffusion coefficients of fluorescent organic molecules over 8 orders in magnitude in proxies of SOA including citric acid, sorbitol,and a sucrose–citric acid mixture. These results were combined with literature data to evaluate the Stokes–Einstein relation for predicting the diffusion of organic molecules in SOA. Although almost all the data agree with the Stokes–Einstein relation within a factor of 10, a fractional Stokes–Einstein relation ($D∝1/η^ξ$) with ξ =0.93 is a better model for predicting the diffusion of organic molecules in the SOA proxies studied. In addition, based on the output from a chemical transport model, the Stokes–Einstein relation can overpredict mixing times of organic molecules within SOA by as much as 1 order of magnitude at an altitude of ~3 km compared to the fractional Stokes–Einstein relation with ξ =0.93. These results also have implications for other areas such as in food sciences and the preservation of biomolecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

New proxies for second-order cumulants of conserved charges in heavy-ion collisions within the EPOS4 framework

Proxies for cumulants of baryon number 𝐵, electric charge 𝑄, and strangeness 𝑆 are usually measured in heavy-ion collisions via moments of net-number distribution of given hadronic species. Since these cumulants of conserved charges are expected to be sensitive to the existence of a critical point in the phase diagram of nuclear matter, it is crucial to ensure that the proxies used as substitutes are as close to them as possible. Hence, we use the EPOS 4 framework to generate Au + Au collisions at several collision energies of the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider beam energy scan. We compute second-order net cumulants of 𝜋, 𝐾, and 𝑝, for which experimental data have been published as well as the corresponding conserved charge cumulants. We then compare them with proxies, defined in previous lattice QCD and hadron resonance gas model studies, which are shown to reproduce more accurately their associated conserved charge cumulants. We investigate the impact of hadronic rescatterings occurring in the late evolution of the system on these quantities, as well as the amount of signal actually originating from the bulk medium which endures a phase transition.

Physics↗

Recrystallization driven softening and heating rate dependencies of FeCrAl nuclear fuel cladding during accident transients

A refined understanding of FeCrAl cladding behavior during rapid transients is critical for its potential deployment in light-water reactors. Current assessments focus on transient burst testing metrics such as balloon geometry, burst temperature, and hoop stress, often used as proxies for simpler conventional tensile properties. However, directly correlating isothermal tensile and creep data with accident transient scenarios remains a challenge, although it is essential for high fidelity model development. Recent modeling based on tensile tests up to 800 °C, conducted with both immediate loading and a 10-minute soak, showed that immediate loading better predicts experimental burst temperatures, indicating a thermal softening effect. Building upon this observation, the current study connects transient performance, microstructural evolution, and high-temperature tensile properties by leveraging results from C26M claddings burst tests performed at heating rates of 1–50 °C/s and hoop stresses from 25 to 100 MPa. At 25 MPa, rupture temperatures varied by only 6 °C, but at 100 MPa, the difference reached 116 °C, with faster heating yielding higher burst temperatures. Microstructural analysis identified recrystallization as the primary cause of heating rate-dependent softening, eliminating prior cold-working. In-situ thermomechanical data linked ballooning onset to localized instabilities, similar to ultimate tensile strength behavior in conventional tensile tests. High heating rates correlated with immediate loading tensile data, while lower rates matched soaked data. Furthermore, by linking burst performance to microstructural evolution and tensile properties, this work provides a foundation for more accurate modeling of FeCrAl claddings and potentially other Fe-based materials under accident conditions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The shock physics of giant impacts: Key requirements for the equations of state

We discuss major challenges in modeling giant impacts between planetary bodies, focusing on the equations of state (EOS). During the giant impact stage of planet formation, rocky planets are melted and partially vaporized. However, most EOS models fail to reproduce experimental constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the major minerals over the required phase space. Here, we present an updated version of the widely-used ANEOS model that includes a user-defined heat capacity limit in the thermal free energy term. Our revised model for forsterite (Mg 2 SiO 4 ), a common proxy for the mantles of rocky planets, provides a better fit to material data over most of the phase space of giant impacts. We discuss the limitations of this model and the Tillotson equation of state, a commonly used alternative model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mass calibration of DES Year-3 clusters via SPT-3G CMB cluster lensing

We measure the stacked lensing signal in the direction of galaxy clusters in the DarkEnergy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) redMaPPer sample, using cosmic microwave background (CMB)temperature data from SPT-3G, the third-generation CMB camera on the South PoleTelescope (SPT). Here, we estimate the lensing signal using temperature maps constructed fromthe initial 2 years of data from the SPT-3G 'Main' survey, covering 1500 deg$^{2}$ of the Southernsky. We then use this lensing signal as a proxy for the mean cluster mass of the DES sample. Thethermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal, which can contaminate the lensing signal if notaddressed, is isolated and removed from the data before obtaining the mass measurement. In thiswork, we employ three versions of the redMaPPer catalogue: a Flux-Limited sample containing 8865clusters, a Volume-Limited sample with 5391 clusters, and a Volume&Redshift-Limited sample with4450 clusters. For the three samples, we detect the CMB lensing signal at a significance of12.4σ, 10.5σ and 10.2σ and find the mean cluster masses to be M$_{200m}$ = 1.66±0.13 [stat.]± 0.03 [sys.], 1.97±0.18 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.],and 2.11±0.20 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.]×10$^{14}$ M$_{⊙}$, respectively. Thisis a factor of ∼ 2 improvement relative to the precision of measurements with previousgenerations of SPT surveys and the most constraining cluster mass measurements using CMB clusterlensing to date. Overall, we find no significant tensions between our results and masses given byredMaPPer mass-richness scaling relations of previous works, which were calibrated using CMBcluster lensing, optical weak lensing, and velocity dispersion measurements from variouscombinations of DES, SDSS and Planck data. We then divide our sample into 3 redshift and 3richness bins, finding no significant discrepancies with optical weak-lensing calibrated masses inthese bins. We forecast a 5.7% constraint on the mean cluster mass of the DES Y3 sample withthe complete SPT-3G surveys when using both temperature and polarization data and including anadditional ∼ 1400 deg$^{2}$ of observations from the 'Extended' SPT-3G survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microseismicity Analysis for HFTS Pad and Correlation With Completion Parameters

Microseismic data can be used as a tool to help understand fracturing behavior during hydraulic stimulation. Recent studies have validated complex fracture growth and interaction during fracturing process and there is a need to better utilize microseismic data as a way of improving our understanding of this complexity. Moreover, significant stress variations along the laterals and various formations of interest can be better interpreted by making use of b-value distribution as a proxy measure for stress. In this study, we tie the Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) from microseismic with the 3D seismic and petrophysical data to understand stress variations within the upper and middle Wolfcamp formations. We also look at how temporal microseismic FMD variance can be used as a tool to help understand fracturing behavior with time. Our results highlight the utility of microseismic FMD as a valuable hydraulic fracturing diagnostic tool post fracturing operations and as a validation for observations made during treatment including relevant treatment parameters.

Maity, Debotyam↗

Towards Online Machine Learning in DUNE Data Acquisition

Processing the large volumes of data produced by liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments presents a significant challenge, especially those at the scale of DUNE. This is a particular challenge when aiming to trigger on low-energy neutrinos from core-collapse supernovae, which are typically buried in a high-rate radiological background. To enable real-time event selection suitable for such rare signals, we are developing machine learning based data filtering methods. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we implemented such pipeline using the ICEBERG detector at Fermilab as a small-scale LArTPC, with a focus on identifying Michel electrons as a proxy for low-energy neutrino interactions. This poster will present the current status of integrating these machine learning models into the data acquisition (DAQ) system of this detector.

Dalager, Olivia [Fermilab]↗

Fluctuations and correlations of baryonic chiral partners

The exploration of critical phenomena in phase transitions of strongly interacting matter governed by quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is one of the goals of present ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collision experiments at BNL and CERN. The key research direction is to locate the putative critical point on the phase diagram of QCD linked to the chiral symmetry restoration at finite temperature and/or density. One of the main theoretical tools used for this purpose is the fluctuations of conserved charges, such as the net-baryon number. However, due to experimental limitations, analyses of heavy-ion collision data suffer from a very doubtful basing of the net-proton number being a proxy for the total net-baryon number fluctuations. In this work, we use the parity doublet model to investigate the fluctuations of the net-baryon number density in hot and dense hadronic matter. The model accounts for chiral criticality within the mean-field approximation. We focus on the qualitative properties and systematics of the first- and second-order susceptibility of the net-baryon number density, and their ratios for nucleons of positive and negative parity, as well as their correlator. We show that the fluctuations of the positive-parity nucleon do not necessarily reflect the fluctuations of the total net-baryon number density at the phase boundary of the chiral phase transition. We also investigate the nontrivial structure of the correlator. Furthermore, we discuss and quantify the differences between the fluctuations of the net-baryon number density in the vicinity of the chiral and liquid-gas phase transition in nuclear matter. We indicate a possible relevance of our results with the interpretation of the experimental data on net-proton number fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Revised monthly energy generation estimates for 1,500 hydroelectric power plants in the United States

Abstract The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducts a regular survey (form EIA-923) to collect annual and monthly net generation for more than ten thousand U.S. power plants. Approximately 90% of the ~1,500 hydroelectric plants included in this data release are surveyed at annual resolution only and thus lack actual observations of monthly generation. For each of these plants, EIA imputes monthly generation values using the combined monthly generating pattern of other hydropower plants within the corresponding census division. The imputation method neglects local hydrology and reservoir operations, rendering the monthly data unsuitable for various research applications. Here we present an alternative approach to disaggregate each unobserved plant’s reported annual generation using proxies of monthly generation—namely historical monthly reservoir releases and average river discharge rates recorded downstream of each dam. Evaluation of the new dataset demonstrates substantial and robust improvement over the current imputation method, particularly if reservoir release data are available. The new dataset—named RectifHyd—provides an alternative to EIA-923 for U.S. scale, plant-level, monthly hydropower net generation (2001–2020). RectifHyd may be used to support power system studies or analyze within-year hydropower generation behavior at various spatial scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Applying Two Active Acoustic Technologies to Document Presence of Large Marine Animal Targets at a Marine Renewable Energy Site

Coastal regions are highly used by humans. The growing marine renewable energy (MRE) industry will add to existing anthropogenic pressures in these regions. Regulatory bodies require animal risk assessment before new industrial activities can progress, and MRE is no exception. Preliminary data of marine mammal use of an MRE device deployment location could be informative to permitting. A combination of downlooking hydroacoustics using an echosounder and acoustic camera (imaging sonar) was used to provide a number of large targets (proxy for large fish and marine mammals) in an area of interest for MRE tidal turbine deployment in Western Passage, Maine, USA. Data were collected in May, June, August, and September of 2010 and 2011. Of the nine large targets confirmed to be animals, eight were porpoises and one was a shark. Few large targets were observed in May and June, with the majority (90%) being present in August and September of both years. The most large targets were observed when tidal current speed was less than 1 m·s−1. These data provide a preliminary assessment of large targets in a single location over sixteen 24-h surveys. The aforementioned methodology could be used for future pre- and post-installation assessments at MRE device deployment locations. Their use in concert with visual and passive acoustic monitoring can provide water depth usage by marine mammals, which is a metric that is difficult to assess with passive acoustic and visual techniques.

Staines, Garrett↗

Ecological engineering projects increased vegetation cover, production, and biomass in semiarid and subhumid Northern China

Multiple ecological engineering projects have been implemented in semiarid and subhumid Northern China since 1978 with the purpose to combat desertification, control dust storms, and improve vegetation cover. Although a plethora of local studies exist, the effectiveness of these projects has not been studied in a systematic and comprehensive way. Here, we used multiple satellite-based time-series data as well as breakpoint analysis to assess shifts in leaf area index (a proxy for green vegetation cover), gross primary production, and aboveground biomass in Northern China. We documented increased vegetation growth in northwest and southeastern parts of the region, despite drought anomalies as documented by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index during 1982–2016. Significant breakpoints in leaf area index were observed for over 72.5% of the southeastern and northwestern regions, and 70.6% of these breakpoints were detected after 1999, which correspond well to the areas with the highest ecological engineering efforts. Areas with negative trends were mainly located in the Inner Mongolian Plateau, Hulun Biur, Horqin Sand Land, and urban areas. The Loess Plateau had the largest increase in vegetation growth, followed by the north parts of Northern China where biomass increased more in the provinces of Shanxi, Liaoning, Shannxi, Hebei, and Beijing than Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Qinghai. Our results show that multiple ecological engineering projects in the region have increased vegetation cover, production, and aboveground biomass that have led to improved environmental conditions in the study area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗