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NASA NTRS2019

Use of Polarimetric Radar Measurements to Constrain Simulated Convective Cell Evolution: A Pilot Study with Lagrangian Tracking

To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase (K(sub DP)) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of KDP and radar differential reflectivity (Z(sub DR)) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K(sub DP) and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ∼ 150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Loading and Unloading of Mercury's Magnetic Tail

During MESSENGER's third flyby of Mercury, a series of 2-3 minute long enhancements of the magnetic field in the planet's magnetotail were observed. Magnetospheric substorms at Earth are powered by similar tail loading, but the amplitude is approximately 10 times less and the durations are 1 hr. These observations of extreme loading imply that the relative intensity of substorms at Mercury must be much larger than at Earth. The correspondence between the duration of tail enhancements and the calculated approximately 2 min Dungey cycle, which describes plasma circulation through Mercury's magnetosphere, suggests that such circulation determines substorm timescale. A key aspect of tail unloading during terrestrial substorms is the acceleration of energetic charged particles. Such signatures are puzzlingly absent from the MESSENGER flyby measurements.

Slavin, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks

We use spatially continuous satellite data as a correlate of precipitation within tropical Africa and show that the majority of documented Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks were closely associated with sharply drier conditions at the end of the rainy season. We propose that these trigger events may enhance transmission of Ebola virus from its cryptic reservoir to humans. These findings suggest specific directions to help understand the sylvatic cycle of the virus and may provide early warning tools to detect possible future outbreaks of this enigmatic disease.

Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology/etiology↗
NASA NTRS2010

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Loading and Unloading of Mercury's Magnetic Tail

During MESSENGER's third flyby of Mercury, the magnetic field in the planet's magnetotail increased by factors of 2 to 3.5 over intervals of 2 to 3 min. Magnetospheric substorms at Earth are powered by similar tail loading, but the amplitude is approx.10 times less and typical durations are approx.1 hour. The extreme tail loading observed at Mercury implies that the relative intensity of sub storms must be much larger than at Earth. The correspondence between the duration of tail field enhancements and the characteristic time for the Dungey cycle, which describes plasma circulation through Mercury's magnetosphere. suggests that such circulation determines substorm timescale. A key aspect of tail unloading during terrestrial substorms is the acceleration of energetic charged particles, but no acceleration signatures were seen during the MESSENGER flyby.

Slavin, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗
NASA NTRS2001

New Fluid Prevents Railway Ice

Through a licensing agreement between NASA's Ames Research Center and Midwest Industrial Supply, Inc. (MIS), two MIS products have been enhanced with NASA's anti-icing fluid technology. MIS offers the new fluid in two commercial products, the Zero Gravity(TM) Third Rail Anti-Icer/Deicer and the Ice Free Switch(R). Using NASA's fluid technology, these products form a protective-coating barrier that prevents the buildup of ice and snow. Applying the fluid to the railway components prior to ice or snowstorm works as an anti-icing fluid, remaining in place to melt precipitation as it hits the surface. It also functions as a deicing fluid. If applied to an already frozen switch or rail, it will quickly melt the ice, free the frozen parts, and then remain in place to prevent refreezing. Additional benefits include the ability to cling to vertical rail surfaces and resist the effects of rain and wind. With the Ice Free Switch, it takes only five minutes to treat the switch by spraying, brushing, or pouring on the product. Ice Free Switch requires as little as one gallon per switch whereas other deicing fluids require five to ten gallons of liquid to effectively melt ice. Zero Gravity serves the same anti-icing/deicing purposes but applies fluid to the third rail through a system that is easily installed onto mass transit cars. A tank of fluid and a dispensing system are placed underneath the train car and the fluid is applied as the train runs its route.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Performance of GPM IMERG Products for Extreme Precipitation Estimation in Volta River Basin of Ghana

The Volta River basin in West Africa, covering a substantial area of Ghana, faces significant water management challenges due to highly variable rainfall and limited availability of high temporal resolution rain gauges. This study, developed under the 2024 Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission mentorship program, evaluates precipitation in the Volta River basin using high-resolution satellite-derived data from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). In the absence of sub-daily rainfall data, comparisons were made between daily, monthly, and seasonal precipitation from local gauges and IMERG V06 and V07 (early and final) runs. Results indicated a very weak correlation between daily precipitation estimates from IMERG and gauge data, but a significantly improved correlation for monthly and seasonal estimates. Additionally, IMERG data were used to identify heavy rainfall events and drought periods, which were compared to known occurrences in the region. By addressing these objectives, this study contributes to more accurate extreme precipitation estimation in the Volta River basin, thereby enhancing disaster risk management and climate resilience in Ghana.

Jessica Sutton↗
NASA NTRS2014

Plasma Distribution in Mercury's Magnetosphere Derived from MESSENGER Magnetometer and Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer Observations

We assess the statistical spatial distribution of plasma in Mercury's magnetosphere from observations of magnetic pressure deficits and plasma characteristics by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft. The statistical distributions of proton flux and pressure were derived from 10months of Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) observations obtained during the orbital phase of the MESSENGER mission. The Magnetometer-derived pressure distributions compare favorably with those deduced from the FIPS observations at locations where depressions in the magnetic field associated with the presence of enhanced plasma pressures are discernible in the Magnetometer data. The magnitudes of the magnetic pressure deficit and the plasma pressure agree on average, although the two measures of plasma pressure may deviate for individual events by as much as a factor of approximately 3. The FIPS distributions provide better statistics in regions where the plasma is more tenuous and reveal an enhanced plasma population near the magnetopause flanks resulting from direct entry of magnetosheath plasma into the low-latitude boundary layer of the magnetosphere. The plasma observations also exhibit a pronounced north-south asymmetry on the nightside, with markedly lower fluxes at low altitudes in the northern hemisphere than at higher altitudes in the south on the same field line. This asymmetry is consistent with particle loss to the southern hemisphere surface during bounce motion in Mercury's offset dipole magnetic field.

magnetic↗
NASA NTRS1996

MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Research Presentation Day: Experience Mathematics and Science in the Real World

This paper presents the summaries of the MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Technological areas discussed include: Mathematical curriculum development for real world problems; Rain effects on air-water gas exchange; multi-ring impact basins on mars; developing an interactive multimedia educational cd-rom on remote sensing; a pilot of an activity for for the globe program; fossils in maryland; developing children's programming for the american horticultural society at river farm; children's learning, educational programs of the national park service; a study of climate and student satisfaction in two summer programs for disadvantaged students interested in careers in mathematics and science; the maryland governor's academy, integrating technology into the classroom; stream sampling with the maryland biological stream survey (MBSS); the imaging system inspection software technology, the preparation and detection of nominal and faulted steel ingots; event-based science, the development of real-world science units; correlation between anxiety and past experiences; environmental education through summer nature camp; enhancing learning opportunities at the Salisbury zoo; plant growth experiment, a module for the middle school classroom; the effects of proxisome proliferators in Japanese medaka embryos; development of a chapter on birth control and contraceptive methodologies as part of an interactive computer-based education module on hiv and aids; excretion of gentamicin in toadfish and goldfish; the renaissance summer program; and Are field trips important to the regional math science center?

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Lau, William K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Temporal Stability of Surface Roughness Effects on Radar Based Soil Moisture Retrieval During the Corn Growth Cycle

A representative soil surface roughness parameterization needed for the retrieval of soil moisture from active microwave satellite observation is difficult to obtain through either in-situ measurements or remote sensing-based inversion techniques. Typically, for the retrieval of soil moisture, temporal variations in surface roughness are assumed to be negligible. Although previous investigations have suggested that this assumption might be reasonable for natural vegetation covers (Moran et al. 2002, Thoma et al. 2006), insitu measurements over plowed agricultural fields (Callens et al. 2006) have shown that the soil surface roughness can change considerably over time. This paper reports on the temporal stability of surface roughness effects on radar observations and soil moisture retrieved from these radar observations collected once a week during a corn growth cycle (May 10th - October 2002). The data set employed was collected during the Optimizing Production Inputs for Economic and Environmental Enhancement (OPE3) field campaign covering this 2002 corn growth cycle and consists of dual-polarized (HH and VV) L-band (1.6 GHz) acquired at view angles of 15, 35, and 55 degrees. Cross-polarized L baud radar data were also collected as part of this experiment, but are not used in the analysis reported on here. After accounting for vegetation effects on radar observations, time-invariant optimum roughness parameters were determined using the Integral Equation Method (IEM) and radar observations acquired over bare soil and cropped conditions (the complete radar data set includes entire corn growth cycle). The optimum roughness parameters, soil moisture retrieval uncertainty, temporal distribution of retrieval errors and its relationship with the weather conditions (e.g. rainfall and wind speed) have been analyzed. It is shown that over the corn growth cycle, temporal roughness variations due to weathering by rain are responsible for almost 50% of soil moisture retrieval uncertainty depending on the sensing configuration. The effects of surface roughness variations are found to be smallest for observations acquired at a view angle of 55 degrees and HH polarization. A possible explanation for this result is that at 55 degrees and HH polarization the effect of vertical surface height changes on the observed radar response are limited because the microwaves travel parallel to the incident plane and as a result will not interact directly with vertically oriented soil structures.

Joseph, A.T.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Coronado National Memorial Disasters: Investigating Geohazards & Slope Failure Susceptibility Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Coronado National Memorial (CORO), located in Hereford, Arizona, is situated along the United States' southern border, featuring recently established but still incomplete border barrier roads. This landscape is inherently prone to geohazards, and debris flow due to the steep mountainous topography, complex terrain, monsoonal rains, and freeze/thaw action - and the new infrastructure has exhibited these processes in the form of rockfall, embankment failure, and debris flow. NASA DEVELOP partnered with CORO to conduct a feasibility assessment of Earth observations for identification of geohazards and slope failure susceptibility. Leveraging Earth observations (United States Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program Digital Elevation Model and a locally obtained Light Detection And Ranging-derived Digital Elevation Model) from 2019 to 2023, and geospatial datasets starting from 2008, the study was able to provide tools to determine the focus for damage mitigation, identify areas most susceptible to slope failures, and prioritize at risk assets through three products: change detection maps, slope failure susceptibility maps, and a slope failure prioritization model. With an emphasis on monitoring high-risk areas and prioritizing mitigation efforts, the project addresses a critical gap in remediation strategies and aims to enhance preservation and safety of the region. Results of this study found that (i) the most identifiable areas of change were the road cuts and debris directly adjacent to the roads created for border construction, (ii) areas of highest slope failure susceptibility are located in mountainous areas with erosive geology, and (iii) roads resulting from border construction have approximately twice the risk of slope failure as roads created by the national park service.

Geohazard↗
NASA NTRS2010

MESSENGER Observations of Reconnection and Its Effects on Mercury's Magnetosphere

During MESSENGER's second and third flybys of Mercury on October 6, 2008 and September 29, 2009, respectively, southward interplanetary magnetic fields produced very intense reconnection signatures in the dayside and nightside magnetosphere and very different systemlevel responses. The IMF during the second flyby was continuously southward and the magnetosphere appeared very active with very large magnetic fields normal to the magnetopause and the generation of flux transfer events at the magnetopause and plasmoids in the tail current sheet every 30 s to 90 s. However, the strength and direction of the tail magnetic field was very stable. In contrast the third flyby experienced a variable IMF with it varying from north to south on timescales of minutes. Although the MESSENGER measurements were limited this time to the nightside magnetosphere, numerous examples of plasmoid release in the tail were detected, but they were not periodic. Rather, plasmoid release was highly correlated with the four large enhancements of the tail magnetic field (i.e. by factors > 2) with durations of approx. 2 - 3 min. The increased flaring of the magnetic field during these intervals indicates that the enhancements were caused by loading of the tail with magnetic flux transferred from the dayside magnetosphere. New analyses of the second and third flyby observations of reconnection and its system-level effects will be presented. The results will be examined in light of what is known about the response of the Earth's magnetosphere to variable versus steady southward IMF.

Slavin, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Developing GIOVANNI-based Online Prototypes to Intercompare TRMM-Related Global Gridded-Precipitation Products

New online prototypes have been developed to extend and enhance the previous effort by facilitating investigation of product characteristics and intercomparison of precipitation products in different algorithms as well as in different versions at different spatial scales ranging from local to global without downloading data and software. Several popular Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products and the TRMM Composite Climatology are included. In addition, users can download customized data in several popular formats for further analysis. Examples show product quality problems and differences in several monthly precipitation products. It is seen that differences in daily and monthly precipitation products are distributed unevenly in space and it is necessary to have tools such as those presented here for customized and detailed investigations. A simple time series and two area maps allow the discovery of abnormal values of 3A25 in one of the months. An example shows a V-shaped valley issue in the Version 6 3B43 time series and another example shows a sudden drop in 3A25 monthly rain rate, all of which provide important information when the products are used for long-term trend studies. Future plans include adding more products and statistical functionality in the prototypes.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗