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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

The rate of separation of magnetic lines of force in a random magnetic field.

The mixing of magnetic lines of force, as represented by their rate of separation, as a function of distance along the magnetic field, is considered with emphasis on neighboring lines of force. This effect is particularly important in understanding the transport of charged particles perpendicular to the average magnetic field. The calculation is carried out in the approximation that the separation changes by an amount small compared with the correlation scale normal to the field, in a distance along the field of a few correlation scales. It is found that the rate of separation is very sensitive to the precise form of the power spectrum. Application to the interplanetary and interstellar magnetic fields is discussed, and it is shown that in some cases field lines, much closer together than the correlation scale, separate at a rate which is effectively as rapid as if they were many correlation lengths apart.

Jokipii, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The spectrum of random magnetic fields in the mean field dynamo theory of the Galactic magnetic field

The fluctuation spectrum that must arise in a mean field dynamo generation of galactic fields if the initial field is weak is considered. A kinetic equation for its evolution is derived and solved. The spectrum evolves by transfer of energy from one magnetic mode to another by interaction with turbulent velocity modes. This kinetic equation is valid in the limit that the rate of evolution of the magnetic modes is slower than the reciprocal decorrelation time of the turbulent modes. This turns out to be the case by a factor greater than 3. Most of the fluctuation energy concentrates on small scales, shorter than the hydrodynamic turbulent scales. The fluctuation energy builds up to equipartition with the turbulent energy in times that are short compared to the e-folding time of the mean field. The turbulence becomes strongly modified before the dynamo amplification starts. Thus, the kinematic assumption of the mean dynamo theory is invalid. Thus, the galactic field must have a primordial origin, although it may subsequently be modified by dynamo action.

Kulsrud, Russell M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exponential Bound for the Heating Rate of Periodically Driven Spin Systems

For the nuclear spin system of a solid in the presence of an inhomogeneous magnetic field, we have found a rigorous bound for the heating rate of the system under the action of a high-frequency magnetic field, which is applied, for example, to create effective Hamiltonians. We consider the autocorrelation function (ACF) of a spin rotating in a local field whose fluctuations are specified by a Gaussian random process. The correlation function of a random field is taken as the sum of a static inhomogeneous contribution and a time-dependent contribution expressed self-consistently via the spin ACF. The ACF singularities on the imaginary time axis whose coordinates determine the exponents of exponential asymptotics in the high-frequency domain are investigated. The dependences of the coordinates on field inhomogeneity for various approximations have been derived. The wing of the ACF spectrum in the cumulant approximation is shown to serve as a rigorous upper bound for the wing of the ACF spectrum and, consequently, for the heating rate of the system when subjected to variable magnetic fields. We have established that randomly distributed inhomogeneous magnetic fields increase the wings of the ACF spectra and, thus, speed up the system’s heating.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model for lattices

Here we present the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model designed for two-dimensional lattices as a variation of a Markov random field assuming discrete values. In this model, the neighborhood structure has a fixed geometry but a variable order, depending on the neighbors’ values. Our model extends the Probabilistic Context Tree model, originally applicable to one-dimensional space. It retains advantageous properties, such as representing the dependence neighborhood structure as a graph in a tree format, facilitating an understanding of model complexity. Furthermore, we adapt the algorithm used to estimate the Probabilistic Context Tree to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We illustrate the accuracy of our estimation methodology through simulation studies. Additionally, we apply the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model to spatial real-world data, showcasing its practical utility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2016

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

Uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2017

Topology optimization under uncertainty via non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion

This paper presents a systematic approach for topology optimization under uncertainty that integrates non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion with design sensitivity analysis for reliability-based and robust topology optimization. Uncertainty is introduced in loading and in geometry to address the manufacturing variability. The manufacturing variability is modeled via a thresholding technique in which the threshold field is represented by a reduced dimensional random field. Response metrics such as compliance and volume are characterized as polynomial chaos expansions of the underlying uncertain parameters thus allowing accurate and efficient estimation of statistical moments, failure probabilities and their sensitivities. The number of simulations is reduced for linear structures under loading uncertainty by means of superposition. Efficiency of the non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach is highlighted by comparison with the Monte Carlo method in terms of the number of simulations. To demonstrate the effect of uncertainty, optimized designs that consider uncertainty are compared to those that do not. Finally, comparisons of polynomial chaos expansion to existing analytical methods on a benchmark numerical example are also provided for reliability-based and worst case designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The information content of projected galaxy fields

ABSTRACT The power spectrum of the non-linearly evolved large-scale mass distribution recovers only a minority of the information available on the mass fluctuation amplitude. We investigate the recovery of this information in 2D ‘slabs’ of the mass distribution averaged over ≈100 h−1 Mpc along the line of sight, as might be obtained from photometric redshift surveys. We demonstrate a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method to reconstruct the non-Gaussian mass distribution in slabs, under the assumption that the projected field is a point-transformed Gaussian random field, Poisson-sampled by galaxies. When applied to the Quijote N-body suite at z = 0.5 and at a transverse resolution of 2 h−1 Mpc, the method recovers ∼30 times more information than the 2D power spectrum in the well-sampled limit, recovering the Gaussian limit on information. At a more realistic galaxy sampling density of 0.01 h3 Mpc−3, shot noise reduces the information gain to a factor of 5 improvement over the power spectrum at resolutions of 4 h−1 Mpc or smaller.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Charged particle propagation in strong disordered magnetic fields

The use of quasilinear theory in calculating particle trajectories in strong random fields is beset by a basic difficulty concerning the breakdown of the basic assumption of the theory. This assumption is that the random force acting on the particle becomes self-incoherent before it has changed the particle's trajectory in phase space, ie., its position or velocity, by a significant amount. The various time scales involved in this problem are defined and compared to determine in which regions the basic assumptions of quasilinear theory are violated. It is shown how nonlinear theories in general and the Partially Averaged Field theory (Jones et al. 1973) can partly alleviate these difficulties.

Jones, F. C.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distribution of interevent avalanche times in disordered and frustrated spin systems

Hysteresis loops and the associated avalanche statistics of spin systems, such as the random-field Ising and Edwards-Anderson spin-glass models, have been extensively studied. A particular focus has been on self-organized criticality, manifest in power-law distributions of avalanche sizes. Considerably less work has been done on the statistics of the times between avalanches. This paper considers this issue, generalizing the work of Nampoothiri et al. [Phys. Rev. E 96, 032107 (2017)] in one space dimension to higher space dimensions. In addition to the interevent statistics of all avalanches, we also consider what happens when events are restricted to those exceeding a certain threshold size. Doing so raises the possibility of altering the definition of time to count the number of small events between the large ones, which provides for an analog to the concept of natural time introduced by the geophysics community with the goal of predicting patterns in seismic events. Furthermore, we analyze the distribution of time and natural time intervals both in the case of models that include only nearest-neighbor interactions, as well as models with (sparse) long-range couplings.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Enhance Ramp Reversal Memory in Locally Phase Separated Materials

The ramp-reversal memory (RRM) effect in metal–insulator transition metal oxides (TMOs), a non-volatile resistance change induced by repeated temperature cycling, has attracted considerable interest in neuromorphic computing and non-volatile memory devices. Our previous defect motion model successfully explained RRM in vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ), capturing observed critical temperature shifts and memory accumulation throughout the sample. However, this approach lacked interactions between metallic and insulating domains. Here, we extend our model by combining a correlated Random Field Ising Model with defect diffusion-segregation, enabling accurate hysteresis modeling while predicting the relationship between RRM and domain interactions. Our simulations demonstrate that the maximum RRM occurs when the turnaround temperature approaches the inflection point. This peak in RRM vs. turnaround temperature is consistent with prior transport measurements, as well as our own optical measurements reported here. Significantly, we find that increasing nearest-neighbor interactions enhances the maximum memory effect, thus providing a clear mechanism for optimizing RRM performance. Since our model employs minimal assumptions, we predict that RRM should be a widespread phenomenon in materials exhibiting patterned phase coexistence of electronic domains. This work not only advances fundamental understanding of memory behavior in TMOs but also establishes a much-needed theoretical framework for optimizing device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗