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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

SAND2024-11403O The Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent-based Model via Random Forest is a code that was developed in concurrence with an article by the same name that was written for a journal. The code reproduces simulation results and plots from the article. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Feature Pathway Graphs using Random Forest Regressors

SAND2025-04671O Feature Pathway Graphs using Random Forest Regressors is a software tool that uses machine learning to determine pathways of influence between features in data sets. It can be used as a surrogate method for casual discovery. The output creates pathway graphs between features of interest. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Peterson, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topography restoration in white-light interferometry using an instrument transfer function evaluated with binary pseudo-random arrays

Accurate knowledge of the instrument transfer function (ITF) is vital for topography measurements using white-light interferometry (WLI). To this end, we derive a complete set of analytical expressions for the power spectral density (PSD) of a discretely sampled binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) as a theoretical benchmark. We then determine the ITF by comparing this theoretical PSD with the measured PSD of the BPRA. For the Zygo ZeGage Pro HR with a objective, the determined ITF closely matches the nominal modulation transfer function (MTF). Accordingly, we integrate the nominal MTF into Fourier-domain restoration filters and apply them to practical WLI topography data, yielding restored topographies that show improved agreement with atomic force microscopy measurements. Overall, our integrated BPRA-based ITF measurement and filtering methodology offers a robust yet practical means of characterizing WLI performance and enhancing the accuracy of surface measurements.

Hirose, Shigenobu [Japan Agency for Marine Earth S↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ASSIST trial: Acute effects of manipulating strength exercise volume on insulin sensitivity in obese adults: A protocol for a randomized controlled, crossover, clinical trial

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a disease in which insulin action is impaired, and an acute bout of strength exercise can improve insulin sensitivity. Current guidelines for strength exercise prescription suggest that 8 to 30 sets could be performed, although it is not known how variations in exercise volume impact insulin sensitivity. Additionally, this means an almost 4-fold difference in time commitment, which might directly impact an individual’s motivation and perceived capacity to exercise. This study will assess the acute effects of high- and low-volume strength exercise sessions on insulin sensitivity. After being thoroughly familiarized, 14 obese individuals of both sexes (>40 year old) will undergo 3 random experimental sessions, with a minimum 4-day washout period between them: a high-volume session (7 exercises, 3 sets per exercise, 21 total sets); a low-volume session (7 exercises, 1 set per exercise, 7 total sets); and a control session, where no exercise will be performed. Psychological assessments (feeling, enjoyment, and self-efficacy) will be performed after the sessions. All sessions will be held at night, and the next morning, an oral glucose tolerance test will be performed in a local laboratory, from which indexes of insulin sensitivity will be derived. We believe this study will aid in strength exercise prescription for individuals who claim not to have time to exercise or who perceive high-volume strength exercise intimidating to adhere to. This trial was prospectively registered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reference Shapefiles and Pre-trained Random Forest Classification Models for Detecting Aufeis on the North Slope of Alaska in Landsat Imagery

This dataset provides shapefiles and trained machine learning models used for aufeis detection at four sites on the North Slope of Alaska. It includes reference data for evaluating Landsat-based detection methods, supporting research on remote sensing approaches for identifying aufeis. The ReferenceData folder contains ArcGIS shapefiles of semi-automated land cover classifications for 217 Landsat Collection 2 images, categorizing pixels into six classes: aufeis, snow, ground, none, water, and cloud. The SiteBuffers.zip file includes 10-kilometer buffer shapefiles defining regions of interest around four aufeis fields (Canning21, FH1, Firth, and Kuparuk), used to test three detection techniques. Additionally, the TrainedRFModels folder contains six pre-trained Scikit-Learn Random Forest classifiers (100 trees, max depth = 30) designed to predict aufeis presence in Landsat Collection 2 Surface Reflectance images using Red, Blue, SWIR2, NDVI, and NDWI bands. This dataset supports the development and validation of remote sensing methods for mapping aufeis in Arctic environments.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the publication “Non-random processes impacting organic matter chemistry are maximized in mid-order streams” submitted to Limnology and Oceanography (L&O) by Danczak et al. (in review). This package contains data and scripts used to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecular chemistry and diversification processes across 47 surface-water sampling sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, during an August 2021 sampling campaign. The package contains analyses of ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), geochemical measurements, geospatial attributes, molecular diversity, and meta-metabolome ecological null models needed to reproduce the main manuscript results. The underlying field data were pulled from exising data packages at https://doi.org/10.15485/1892052 (Fulton et al., 2022) and https://doi.org/10.15485/1898914 (Grieger et al., 2022). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. We thank the following organizations for providing access to field locations for sample collection: the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Cowiche Canyon Conservatory. Research was conducted under Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Scientific Research Permit #210901. We are grateful to the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for their collaboration in facilitating sample collection and ensuring data usage aligns with their values and worldview. This data package contains an R-Markdown file for analyses and five folders: (1) Data, (2) Geospatial Data, (3) Supplemental_Files, (5) Figures_pdf, (4) and src. The Data folder contains tabular inputs and derived files used in the manuscript analysis. The Geospatial Data folder contains climate and water-balance, hydrologic, land-cover, population/regional water-use, stream, topographic, and stream-order attribute CSV files. The src folder contains scripts used to process data, run analyses, and generate figures. The Figures_pdf folder contains manuscript figure outputs. The Supplemental_Files folder contains supplemental analysis products. All files are .csv, .pdf, .html, .png, .R, .Rmd, .svg, or .tre. This data package is associated with the rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcfsa-RC2-SPS_Null_Modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2024

Studying the Random Number Generators in MCNP6 using an Analytic Benchmark

An analytic solution to a previously studied toy problem is derived and used as a code verification benchmark. Using various Random Number Generators (RNGs) in MCNP6, including the newest SFC64 RNG available in MCNP6.3.1, and their various properties (e.g., RNG stride), we show how these RNGs perform and how to correct or workaround potential issues with respect to the analytic benchmark problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Random Walk Simulator Using Ultrafast Optical Switches

Quantum random walk processes have many intriguing applications in high energy physics including the simulation of parton shower evolution. We will present the design and initial results of a fiber loop time-bin quantum walk architecture using the hardware platform already in operation at the Fermilab Quantum Network in which the state of the photon is defined by its time-of-arrival. The fiber loop consists of an unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer implemented using an ultrafast electro-optical switch. The input switch controls the photon path within the interferometer, while the output switch will direct the photon back into the interferometer or to single photon detectors to measure the probability distribution of arrival times. Depending on which path the photon takes each pass through the loop, its wave function will interfere on these optical switches similar to quantum interference on a beam splitter. This work is an important step towards utilizing real-world advantages of quantum information protocols to solve problems in high energy physics.

Cameron, Andrew [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble Simulation Techniques and Fast Randomized Algorithms

The major goals of the project were to develop and analyze new ensemble simulation techniques, including trajectory stratification and preconditioned MCMC techniques, as well as develop fast numerical linear algebra techniques closely related to ensemble simulation ideas. The trajectory stratification techniques involve simulating in parallel short trajectory fragments of a Markov process confined to a specific region of space‐time and then patching together the statistics gathered to assemble estimates of very general dynamical properties. We have also developed this approach for rare event simulation and extended the techniques to applications requiring a more general framework (such as electronic structure calculations). The preconditioned MCMC techniques involve simulating multiple Markov chains in parallel and then using information from the ensemble to speed the mixing of each individual chain. The fast randomized linear algebra methods are motivated by the diffusion Monte Carlo technique, but are applicable to finding the dominant eigenvalue of (almost) general matrices. For most non‐negative matrices, the schemes result in an error (compared to the power method) that is constant in the dimension of the problem. For more general matrices, we see a very clear sublinear cost trend in computational tests.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Federated Learning Methods for Nonsmooth, Nonconvex, and Hierarchical Optimization (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the outcomes of a DOE-funded project on federated scientific machine learning (FL) under nonsmooth, nonconvex, and hierarchical optimization settings. The project develops new mathematical models, algorithms, and theoretical guarantees for decentralized stochastic, bilevel, and minimax optimization problems arising in DOE mission-relevant applications. A unified framework of randomized and zeroth-order federated optimization methods is introduced, providing provable convergence, communication efficiency, and sample-complexity guarantees. The report documents algorithmic design, theoretical analysis, and empirical validation of the proposed federated learning methods. The project also contributes to workforce development through graduate training and dissemination of results via publications and seminars.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reducing Randomized Quantum Algorithm Cost [Slides]

We derive the optimal sampling strategy for minimizing total resource cost in randomized quantum algorithms. Our framework is completely general, allowing for resources as diverse as gate counts circuit depth, runtime, or even dissipated energy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements on Multi-Fidelity Random Fourier Neural Networks: Application to Hurricane Modeling for Wind Energy

Multi-fidelity approaches are emerging as effective strategies in computational science to handle otherwise intractable tasks like Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), training of Machine Learning (ML) models, and optimization, for expensive high-fidelity applications in which the amount of available simulations or data is limited. The main idea is simple: large datasets generated for low-fidelity approximations of the problem at hand are fused with a much sparser dataset for the target (high-fidelity) system. In this paper, we build on our recent success in designing random Fourier Neural Networks (rFNNs) [1] to target problems arising in wind energy applications and in particular problems of interest for hurricane modeling. In this context, data for the high-fidelity models are limited and lower fidelity alternatives are needed. In this work, we introduce a novel multi-fidelity training approach for our rFNNs and demonstrate its use on a simple verification problem and on a hurricane modeling problem in which high-fidelity data are generated via Large-Eddy Simulations (LES), while low-fidelity data are given by a mesoscale model. Initial results demonstrate how the multi-fidelity training approach can improve the quality of the resulting surrogate.

Fourier Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Cerebral aneurysm is a high-risk cerebrovascular disease with a poor prognosis, potentially linked to multiple factors. This study aims to explore the association between mitochondrial-associated proteins and the risk of cerebral aneurysms using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. Methods We used GWAS summary statistics from the IEU Open GWAS project for mitochondrial-associated proteins and from the Finnish database for cerebral aneurysms (uIA, aSAH). The association between mitochondrial-associated exposures and cerebral aneurysms was evaluated using MR-Egger, weighted mode, IVW, simple mode and weighted median methods. Reverse MR assessed reverse causal relationship, while sensitivity analyses examined heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the instrumental variables. Significant causal relationship with cerebral aneurysms were confirmed using FDR correction. Results Through MR analysis, we identified six mitochondrial proteins associated with an increased risk of aSAH: AIF1 (OR: 1.394, 95% CI: 1.109–1.752, p = 0.0044), CCDC90B (OR: 1.318, 95% CI: 1.132–1.535, p = 0.0004), TIM14 (OR: 1.272, 95% CI: 1.041–1.553, p = 0.0186), NAGS (OR: 1.219, 95% CI: 1.008–1.475, p = 0.041), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.311, 95% CI: 1.096–1.569, p = 0.003), and MRM3 (OR: 1.097, 95% CI: 1.016–1.185, p = 0.0175). Among these, CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and AIF1 demonstrated a significant causal relationship with an increased risk of aSAH (FDR q < 0.1). Three mitochondrial proteins were associated with an increased risk of uIA: CCDC90B (OR: 1.309, 95% CI: 1.05–1.632, p = 0.0165), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.306, 95% CI: 1.007–1.694, p = 0.0438), and MRM3 (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.012–1.263, p = 0.0303). In the reverse MR study, only one mitochondrial protein, TIM14 (OR: 1.087, 95% CI: 1.004–1.177, p = 0.04), showed a causal relationship with aSAH. Sensitivity analysis did not reveal heterogeneity or pleiotropy. The results suggest that CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and MRM3 may be common risk factors for cerebral aneurysms (ruptured and unruptured), while AIF1 and NAGS are specifically associated with an increased risk of aSAH, unrelated to uIA. TIM14 may interact with aSAH. Conclusion Our findings confirm a causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms, offering new insights for future research into the pathogenesis and treatment of this condition.

Wang, Shuai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and simulations of hydrodynamic shocks in a plasma flowing across randomized ICF scale laser beams

High-energy laser beams interacting with flowing plasmas can produce a plasma response that leads to deflection of the beam, beam bending. Such beams have usually a speckle structure generated by optical smoothing techniques that reduce the spatial and temporal coherence in the laser field pattern. The cumulative plasma response from laser speckles slows down the velocity of the incoming flow by momentum conservation. For slightly super-sonic flow the cumulative plasma response to the ponderomotive force exerted by the beam speckle ensemble is the strongest, such that slowing down the flow to subsonic velocities leads eventually to the generation of a shock around the cross section of the beam. This scenario has been predicted theoretically and is confirmed here by our hydrodynamic simulations in two dimensions with speckled beams and in one dimension with a reduced model. The conditions of shock generation are given in terms of the ponderomotive pressure, speckle size and the flow velocity. The nonlinear properties of the shocks are analyzed using Rankine–Hugoniot relations. According to linear theory, temporally smoothed laser beams exhibit a higher threshold for shock generation. Numerical simulations with beams that are smoothed by spectral dispersion compare well with the linear theory results, diverging from those produced by beams with only a random phase plates in the nonlinear regime. The conditions necessary for shock generation and their effects on the laser plasma coupling in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Ultra-filtration(UF) units are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square (RMSE) metric. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing CCRO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks that enhance process efficiency and reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗