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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

The Frasnian-Famennian mass killing event(s), methods of identification and evaluation

The absence of an abnormally high number of earlier Devonian taxa from Famennian sediments was repeatedly documented and can hardly be questioned. Primary recognition of the event(s) was based on paleontological data, especially common macrofossils. Most paleontologists place the disappearance of these common forms at the gigas/triangularis contact and this boundary was recently proposed as the Frasnian-Famennian (F-F) boundary. Not unexpectedly, alternate F-F positions were suggested caused by temporary Frasnian survivors or sudden post-event radiations of new forms. Secondary supporting evidence for mass killing event(s) is supplied by trace element and stable isotope geochemistry but not with the same success as for the K/T boundary, probably due to additional 300 ma of tectonic and diagenetic overprinting. Another tool is microfacies analysis which is surprisingly rarely used even though it can explain geochemical anomalies or paleontological overlap not detectable by conventional macrofacies analysis. The combination of microfacies analysis and geochemistry was applied at two F-F sections in western Canada and showed how interdependent the two methods are. Additional F-F sections from western Canada, western United States, France, Germany and Australia were sampled or re-sampled and await geochemical/microfacies evaluation.

Geldsetzer, H. H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A geochemical assessment of possible lunar ore formation

The Moon apparently formed without appreciable water or other relatively volatile materials. Interior concentrations of water or other volatile substances appear to be extremely low. On Earth, water is important to the genesis of nearly all types of ores. Thus, some have reasoned that only abundant elements would occur in ore concentrations. The definition and recognition of ores on the Moon challenge the imaginations and the terrestrial perceptions of ore bodies. Lunar ores included solar-wind soaked soils, which contain abundant but dilute H, C, N, and noble gases (including He-3). Oxygen must be mined; soils contain approximately 45 percent (wt). Mainstream processes of rock formation concentrated Si, Mg, Al, Fe, and Ca, and possibly Ti and Cr. The highland surface contains approximately 70 percent (wt) feldspar (mainly CaAl2Si2O8), which can be separated from some highland soils. Small fragments of dunite were collected; dunite may occur in walls and central peaks of some craters. Theoretical extensions of observations of lunar samples suggest that the Moon may have produced ores of trace elements. Some small fragments have trace-element concentrations 10(exp 4) times higher than the lunar average, indicating that effective geochemical separations occurred; processes included fractional crystallization, silicate immiscibility, vaporization and condensation, and sulfide metamorphism. Operations of these processes acting on indigenous materials and on meteoritic material in the regolith could have produced ores. Infalling carbonaceous meteorites and comets have added water and hydrocarbons that may have been cold-trapped. Vesicles in basalts, pyroclastic beads, and reported transient events suggest gag emission from the lunar interior; such gas might concentrate and transport rare elements. Large impacts may disperse ores or produce them through deposition of heat at depth and by vaporization and subsequent condensation. The main problem in assessing lunar resources is the ignorance about the largely unexplored Moon.

Haskin, Larry A.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Bulk, rare earth and other trace elements in Apollo 14 and 15 and Luna 16 samples

The chemical abundances were measured by instrumental and radiochemical neutron activation analysis in a variety of lunar specimens. Apollo 14 soils are characterized by significant enrichments of Al2O3, Na2O and K2O and depletions of TiO2, FeO, MnO and Cr2O3 relative to Apollo 11 and to most of Apollo 12 soils. The uniform abundances in 14230 core tube soils and three other Apollo 14 soils indicate that the regolith is uniform to at least 22 cm depth and within approximately 200 m from the lunar module. Two Luna 16 breccias are similar in composition to Luna 16 soils. Four Apollo 15 soils (LM, STA 4, 9, and 9a) have variable compositions. Interelement correlations between MnO-FeO, Sc-FeO, V-Cr2O3 and K2O-Hf negate the hypothesis that howardite achondrites may be primitive lunar matter, argue against the fission hypothesis for the origin of the moon, and precludes any selective large scale volatilization of alkalies during lunar magmatic events.

Laul, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Porting HEP Parameterized Calorimeter Simulation Code to GPUs

The High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments, such as those at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), traditionally consume large amounts of CPU cycles for detector simulations and data analysis, but rarely use compute accelerators such as GPUs. As the LHC is upgraded to allow for higher luminosity, resulting in much higher data rates, purely relying on CPUs may not provide enough computing power to support the simulation and data analysis needs. As a proof of concept, we investigate the feasibility of porting a HEP parameterized calorimeter simulation code to GPUs. We have chosen to use FastCaloSim, the ATLAS fast parametrized calorimeter simulation. While FastCaloSim is sufficiently fast such that it does not impose a bottleneck in detector simulations overall, significant speed-ups in the processing of large samples can be achieved from GPU parallelization at both the particle (intra-event) and event levels; this is especially beneficial in conditions expected at the high-luminosity LHC, where extremely high per-event particle multiplicities will result from the many simultaneous proton-proton collisions. We report our experience with porting FastCaloSim to NVIDIA GPUs using CUDA. A preliminary Kokkos implementation of FastCaloSim for portability to other parallel architectures is also described.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultra-low radioactivity flexible printed cables

Abstract Flexible printed cables and circuitry based on copper-polyimide materials are widely used in experiments looking for rare events due to their unique electrical and mechanical characteristics. However, past studies have found copper-polyimide flexible cables to contain 400-4700 pg 238 U/g, 16-3700 pg 232 Th/g, and 170-2100 ng nat K/g, which can be a significant source of radioactive background for many current and next-generation ultralow background detectors. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the fabrication process of copper-polyimide flexible cables and the development of custom low radioactivity cables for use in rare-event physics applications. A methodical step-by-step approach was developed and informed by ultrasensitive assay to determine the radiopurity in the starting materials and identify the contaminating production steps in the cable fabrication process. Radiopure material alternatives were identified, and cleaner production processes and treatments were developed to significantly reduce the imparted contamination. Through the newly developed radiopure fabrication process, fully-functioning cables were produced with radiocontaminant concentrations of 20-31 pg 238 U/g, 12-13 pg 232 Th/g, and 40-550 ng nat K/g, which is significantly cleaner than cables from previous work and sufficiently radiopure for current and next-generation detectors. This approach, employing witness samples to investigate each step of the fabrication process, can hopefully serve as a template for investigating radiocontaminants in other material production processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) to measure reaction cross sections producing light, beta-decaying nuclei on OMEGA

A new activation detector optimized for short-lived isotopes was designed, installed, and tested on OMEGA. The Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) can be positioned as close as 35 cm from the OMEGA target chamber center in a ten-inch-manipulator. Stable target samples can be mounted on the front end of the detector assembly to undergo triton-, deuteron-, or neutron-induced reactions that produce short-lived reaction products that beta decay. The emitted betas are detected in a phoswich configuration to eliminate the gamma background. The detector is optimized for isotopes with half-lives from 150 ms to 20 s, filling a gap in OMEGA’s current activation detectors for isotopes with half-lives >5 min. In a pilot study, SLICS achieved an efficiency of 24.5% ± 2.0% for counting 8Li, with a total of 505.8 ± 4.4 qualifying events. Using the existing triton laser-ion acceleration platform on OMEGA, this detector can be used to measure rarely studied tritium-induced reactions on light nuclei with an estimated uncertainty of 12%. As a result, the design of the detector and its performance during a first experiment employing deuterium as a surrogate will be discussed.

Beta spectrometry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻ Using Run 3 Scouting Data Analyze b-tagging and tau-tagging Performance with Unified Particle Transformer

B-tagging and tau-tagging performances play an important role in the search for the rare event HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻. A transformer-based neural network, Unified Particle Transformer, is applied for both tagging tasks, and Run 3 proton–proton collision scouting data at center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV is used. The scouting data stream accepts events at a much higher rate compared to traditional triggers, but stores only the objects reconstructed in the trigger, no low-level detector information. Therefore, existing taggers trained for the offline event reconstruction cannot be used. Analysis of the SoftMax plots, ROC/AUC curves, confusion matrix, accuracy and losses are used to evaluate model performance. Specifically, the tagging efficiency of the signal and misidentification probability across multiple background processes are compared for varying working points. Different training samples with distinct distributions of jet flavors are utilized and related model performances are analyzed. Interpretability methods, such as Integrated Gradients, may further be applied to study the input features’ influence on the model’s decisions, providing insights into potential improvements.

Chen, Blair [Purdue U., West Lafayette; Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Hydrogen Abundances on the Lunar Surface

A global map of bulk hydrogen abundances on the Moon is presented. This map was generated using data from the Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer. This map required corrections for variations due to rare-earth elements, and was calibrated to Apollo sample hydrogen abundances. Since neutron-derived measurements sample hydrogen content to a depth of tens of cm, these results provide complementary insights to those provided by studies using spectral reflectance data, which sample depths of order μm. Comparison of these abundances to Apollo sample values suggest that the samples reflect actual hydrogen content on the lunar surface, not dominantly from non-lunar contamination. The average lunar hydrogen abundance is 47 ppm with a systematic uncertainty of ∼10 ppm. This is consistent with bulk hydrogen from solar wind emplacement. A bulk hydrogen enhancement (50–68 ppm) has been identified at the Moon's largest pyroclastic deposit (Aristarchus Plateau), which corroborates prior observations that hydrogen and/or water plays a role in lunar magmatic events. Global data show a correlation between hydrogen and evolved materials rich in incompatible trace elements (i.e., KREEP type rocks), with a hydrogen excess of 14–36 ppm in these materials. Based on this hydrogen enhancement, we estimate a lower-limit water abundance within urKREEP materials (i.e., the final ∼2% of the lunar magma ocean) of 320–820 ppm H2O. This observation implies that water played a role in the original magma-ocean formation and solidification with a lower-limit water content in the original lunar magma ocean of 7–16 ppm or higher.

David J. Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic cross section using the accelerator neutrino neutron interaction experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26-ton gadolinium-doped water Cherenkov detector located on-axis to Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). ANNIE is uniquely positioned to perform high-statistics measurements of neutrino-nucleus interactions in water, benefiting from a large neutrino flux due to a short (100-meter) baseline. A central focus of ANNIE’s physics program is the measurement of both charged current (CC) and neutral current (NC) cross sections on water, including neutral current quasielastic (NCQE) and CC-inclusive channels. The NCQE measurement is particularly critical for constraining uncertainties in rare-event searches such as the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB), where atmospheric $\nu$NCQE interactions constitute a significant and poorly constrained background. This dissertation presents a measurement of the flux-averaged neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic ($\nu$NCQE) cross section using $2.573 \times 10^{20}$~POT of BNB exposure from the 2022 and 2023 beam years. The $\nu$NCQE interaction is identified through the primary $\gamma$-rays produced by nuclear de-excitation of the residual $^{15}$N$^*$ or $^{15}$O$^*$ nucleus following nucleon knockout from $^{16}$O. A dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) re-tuning campaign was conducted using an americium-beryllium (AmBe) calibration source, Michel electrons from stopped muons, and throughgoing dirt muons originating upstream of the detector. This multi-sample approach provided a wide-ranging $\mathcal{O}(\text{MeV})$--$\mathcal{O}(\text{GeV})$ dataset for tuning the simulated detector response, which was subsequently validated against AmBe neutron and Michel electron data for use in the $\nu$NCQE analysis. A dedicated laser calibration campaign was carried out to reduce timing uncertainties across the PMT system, enabling reconstruction of the BNB bunch substructure with sufficient resolution to serve as a background rejection tool. By selecting events in-time with individual neutrino bunches, beam-correlated $\nu$NCQE events are separated from diffuse and accelerator-induced backgrounds, notably skyshine neutrons and externally-originating events, that would otherwise dominate traditional charge-based selections within a small-scale, surface-level, short-baseline detector. A data-driven estimation of the skyshine neutron and external background rates was performed and incorporated into the systematic uncertainty budget. The flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section on oxygen is measured to be $1.57 \pm 0.06\,(\text{stat.})$ $^{+0.91}_{-0.67}\,(\text{syst.})$ $\times 10^{-38}\ \text{cm}^{2}$. A full systematic budget is constructed by propagating uncertainties in the secondary hadronic interaction modeling, background cross section normalizations, detector response, neutrino flux, and the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probabilities from oxygen nuclear de-excitation. An idealized de-excitation model, constructed from existing measurements in the literature is developed to benchmark the predictions of the \textsc{GENIE} event generator. A comparison reveals that \textsc{GENIE} systematically overpredicts the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probability from oxygen de-excitation by a factor of $1.49\times$ for $E_\gamma > 6$~MeV and $3.07\times$ in the $3$--$6$~MeV band. This comparison motivates the dominant systematic uncertainty in this analysis, where a conservative uncertainty of $^{+39.9\%}_{-0\%}$ on the primary $\gamma$-ray signal prediction is assigned. The ANNIE result is consistent with and complementary to existing flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section measurements from T2K and Super-Kamiokande, providing an independent measurement with a different detector, neutrino beam, and analysis methodology. Looking ahead, an upgrade to the ANNIE DAQ infrastructure enabling continuous extended readout will allow a complementary $\nu$NCQE neutron multiplicity measurement, directly relevant to constraining the NCQE background in DSNB searches, competitive with the recent T2K measurement at SK-Gd. The planned Super-SANDI upgrade, deploying a large Water-based Liquid Scintillator (WbLS) volume, will further extend ANNIE's reach to hadronic final states and exclusive NC channels, and enable joint measurements with liquid argon detectors sharing the BNB beamline ahead of DUNE and Hyper-Kamiokande.

Doran, Steven [Iowa State U.]↗
NASA NTRS2011

Airborne Observation of the Hayabusa Sample Return Capsule Re-Entry

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) recently completed their Hayabusa asteroid exploration mission. Launched in 2003, Hayabusa made contact with, and retrieved a sample from, the near-Earth asteroid Itokawa in 2005. The sample return capsule (SRC) re-entered over the Woomera Test Range (WTR) in southern Australia on June 13, 2010, at approximately 11:21 pm local time (09:51 UTC). The SRC re-entry velocity was 12.2 km/s, making it the second-fastest Earth return velocity behind NASA s Stardust sample return capsule re-entry in 2006. From a space technology development perspective, Hayabusa s re-entry functioned as a rare flight experiment of an entry vehicle and its thermal protection system. In collaboration with the SETI Institute, NASA deployed its DC-8 airborne laboratory and a team of international researchers to Australia to observe the re-entry of the SRC. The use of an airborne platform enables observation above most clouds and weather and greatly diminishes atmospheric absorption of the optical signals. The DC-8 s flight path was engineered and flown to provide a view of the spacecraft that bracketed the heat pulse to the capsule. A suite of imaging instruments on board the DC-8 successfully recorded the luminous portion of the re-entry event. For approximately 70 seconds, the spectroscopic and radiometric instruments acquired images and spectra of the capsule, its wake, and destructive re-entry of the spacecraft bus. Figure 1 shows a perspective view of the WTR, the SRC re-entry trajectory, and the flight path of the DC-8. The SRC was jettisoned from the spacecraft bus approximately 3 hours prior to entry interface. Due to thruster failures on the spacecraft, it could not be diverted from the entry path and followed the trajectory of the SRC, where it burned up in the atmosphere between approximately 100 and 50 km altitude. Fortuitously, the separation distance between the spacecraft and SRC was sufficient to clearly resolve the SRC from the debris field of the burning spacecraft. Figure 2 shows a frame from a high-definition television camera on board the aircraft and denotes the locations of the SRC and spacecraft bus debris.

Grinstead, Jay H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The Earth's magnetosphere as a sample of the plasma universe

Plasma processes in the Earth's neighborhood determine the environmental conditions under which space-based equipment for science or technology must operate. These processes are peculiar to a state of matter that is rare on Earth but dominates the universe as whole. The physical, and especially the electrodynamic, properties of this state of matter is still far from well understood. By fortunate circumstances, the magnetosphere-ionosphere system of the Earth provides a rich sample of widely different plasma populations, and, even more importantly, it is the site of a remarkable variety of plasma processes. In different combinations such processes must be important throughout the universe, which is overwhelmingly dominated by matter in the plasma state. Therefore, observations and experiments in the near-Earth plasma serve a multitude of purposes. They will not only (1) clarify the dynamics of the space environment but also (2) widen the understanding of matter, (3) form a basis for interpretating remote observations of astrophysical objects, thereby even (4) help to reconstruct events that led to the evolution of the solar system. Last but not least they will (5) provide know-how required for adapting space-based technology to the plasma environment. Such observations and experiments will require a close mutual interplay between science and technology.

Faelthammar, Carl-Gunne↗
NASA NTRS2014

Collecting Comet Samples by ER-2 Aircraft: Cosmic Dust Collection During the Draconid Meteor Shower in October 2012

Many tons of dust grains, including samples of asteroids and comets, fall from space into the Earth's atmosphere each day. NASA periodically collects some of these particles from the Earth's stratosphere using sticky collectors mounted on NASA's high-flying aircraft. Sometimes, especially when the Earth experiences a known meteor shower, a special opportunity is presented to associate cosmic dust particles with a known source. NASA JSC's Cosmic Dust Collection Program has made special attempts to collect dust from particular meteor showers and asteroid families when flights can be planned well in advance. However, it has rarely been possible to make collections on very short notice. In 2012, the Draconid meteor shower presented that opportunity. The Draconid meteor shower, originating from Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, has produced both outbursts and storms several times during the last century, but the 2012 event was not predicted to be much of a show. Because of these predictions, the Cosmic Dust team had not targeted a stratospheric collection effort for the Draconids, despite the fact that they have one of the slowest atmospheric entry velocities (23 km/s) of any comet shower, and thus offer significant possibilities of successful dust capture. However, radar measurements obtained by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar during the 2012 Draconids shower indicated a meteor storm did occur October 8 with a peak at 16:38 (+/-5 min) UTC for a total duration of approximately 2 hours.

Bastien, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2018

Chlorine Isotopic Compositions of Apatite in Apollo 14 Rocks: Evidence for Widespread Vapor-Phase Metasomatism on the Lunar Nearside ~4 Billion Years Ago

Compared to most other planetary materials in the Solar System, some lunar rocks display high delta (sup 37) Cl signatures. Loss of Cl in a H<<Cl environment has been invoked to explain the heavy signatures observed in lunar samples, either during volcanic eruptions onto the lunar surface or during large scale degassing of the lunar magma ocean. To explore the conditions under which Cl isotope fractionation occurred in lunar basaltic melts, five Apollo 14 crystalline samples were selected (14053,19, 14072,13, 14073,9, 14310,171 along with basaltic clast 14321,1482) for in situ analysis of Cl isotopes using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Cl isotopes were measured within the mineral apatite, with delta (sup 37) Cl values ranging from +14.6 ± 1.6 per mille to +40.0 ± 2.9 per mille. These values expand the range previously reported for apatite in lunar rocks, and include some of the heaviest Cl isotope compositions measured in lunar samples to date. The data here do not display a trend between increasing rare earth elements contents and delta (sup 37) Cl values, reported in previous studies. Other processes that can explain the wide inter- and intra-sample variability of delta (sup 37) Cl values are explored. Magmatic degassing is suggested to have potentially played a role in fractionating Cl isotope in these samples. Degassing alone, however, could not create the wide variability in isotopic signatures. Our favored hypothesis, to explain small scale heterogeneity, is late-stage interaction with a volatile-rich gas phase, originating from devolatilization of lunar surface regolith rocks ~4 billion years ago. This period coincides with vapor-induced metasomastism recorded in other lunar samples collected at the Apollo 16 and 17 landing sites, pointing to the possibility of widespread volatile-induced metasomatism on the lunar nearside at that time, potentially attributed to the Imbrium formation event.

apatit↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Containment Assurance Risk Framework of the Mars Sample Return Program

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims at bringing rock and atmospheric samples from Mars to Earth through a series of robotic missions. These missions would collect the samples being cached and deposited on Martian soil by the Perseverance rover, place them in a container, and launch them into Martian orbit for subsequent capture by an orbiter that would bring them back. Given there exists a non-zero probability that the samples contain biological material, precautions are being taken to design systems that would break the chain of contact between Mars and Earth. These include techniques such as sterilization of Martian particles, redundant containment vessels, and a robust reentry capsule capable of accurate landings without a parachute. Requirements exist that the probability of containment not assured of Martian-contaminated material into Earth’s biosphere be less than one in a million. To demonstrate compliance with this strict requirement, a statistical framework was developed to assess the likelihood of containment loss during each sample return phase and make a statement about the total combined mission probability of containment not assured. The work presented here describes this framework, which considers failure modes or fault conditions that can initiate failure sequences ultimately leading to containment not assured. Reliability estimates are generated from databases, design heritage, component specifications, or expert opinion in the form of probability density functions or point estimates and provided as inputs to the mathematical models that simulate the different failure sequences. The probabilistic outputs are then combined following the logic of several fault trees to compute the ultimate probability of containment not assured. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the problem and the different types of mathematical models used, the statistical tools needed for analysis are required to be computationally efficient. While standard Monte Carlo approaches are used for fast models, a multi-fidelity approach to rare event probabilities is proposed for expensive models. In this paradigm, inexpensive low-fidelity models are developed for computational acceleration purposes while the expensive high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to retain accuracy in the results. This work presents an example of end-to-end application of this framework highlighting the computational benefits of a multi-fidelity approach.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
NASA NTRS2015

REE Partitioning in Lunar Minerals

Rare earth elements (REE) are an extremely useful tool in modeling lunar magmatic processes. Here we present the first experimentally derived plagioclase/melt partition coefficients in lunar compositions covering the entire suite of REE. Positive europium anomalies are ubiquitous in the plagioclase-rich rocks of the lunar highlands, and complementary negative Eu anomalies are found in most lunar basalts. These features are taken as evidence of a large-scale differentiation event, with crystallization of a global-scale lunar magma ocean (LMO) resulting in a plagioclase flotation crust and a mafic lunar interior from which mare basalts were subsequently derived. However, the extent of the Eu anomaly in lunar rocks is variable. Fagan and Neal [1] reported highly anorthitic plagioclase grains in lunar impact melt rock 60635,19 that displayed negative Eu anomalies as well as the more usual positive anomalies. Indeed some grains in the sample are reported to display both positive and negative anomalies. Judging from cathodoluminescence images, these anomalies do not appear to be associated with crystal overgrowths or zones.

Rapp, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Expanding the REE Partitioning Database for Lunar Materials

Positive europium anomalies are ubiquitous in the plagioclase-rich rocks of the lunar highlands, and complementary negative Eu anomalies are found in most lunar basalts. This is taken as evidence of a large-scale differentation event, with crystallization of a global-scale lunar magma ocean (LMO) resulting in a plagioclase flotation crust and a mafic lunar interior from which mare basalts were later derived. However, the extent of the Eu anomaly in lunar rocks is variable. Some plagioclase grains in a lunar impact rock (60635) have been reported to display a negative Eu anomaly, or in some cases single grains display both positive and neagtive anomalies. Cathodoluminescence images reveal that some crystals have a negative anomaly in the core and positive at the rim, or vice versa, and the negative anomalies are not associated with crystal overgrowths. Oxygen fugacity is known to affect Eu partitioning into plagioclase, as under low fO2 conditions Eu can be divalent, and has an ionic radius similar to Ca2+ - significant in lunar samples where plagioclase compositions are predominantly anorthitic. However, there are very few experimental studies of rare earth element (REE) partitioning in plagioclase relevant to lunar magmatism, with only two plagioclase DEu measurements from experiments using lunar materials, and little data in low fO2 conditions relevant to the Moon. We report on REE partitioning experiments on lunar compositions. We investigate two lunar basaltic compositions, high-alumina basalt 14072 and impact melt breccia 60635. These samples span a large range of lunar surface bulk compositions. The experiments are carried out at variable fO2 in 1 bar gas mixing furnaces, and REE are analysed by and LA-ICP-MS. Our results not only greatly expand the existing plagioclase DREE database for lunar compositions, but also investigate the significance of fO2 in Eu partitioning, and in the interpretation of Eu anomalies in lunar materials.

Rapp, Jennifer F.↗