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At least 145 records · Page 8

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

Bayesian Gaussian process inference for neutron spin echo measurement

Neutron spin echo (NSE) spectroscopy provides unique access to microscopic dynamics, but its application is often constrained by low neutron flux, long acquisition times, and significant noise. Here, we present a Bayesian inference approach based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to reconstruct high-quality spin echo signals from sparse and noisy data by exploiting correlations in reciprocal space. Benchmarks on synthetic datasets and validation with experimental NSE measurements of dendrimers show that GPR suppresses noise, interpolates missing intensity values, and accommodates irregular observations. The method improves accuracy, shortens acquisition times, and enables high-throughput and real-time studies. Beyond NSE, the framework is broadly applicable to other low signal-to-noise ratio scattering techniques, thereby extending the scope of neutron spectroscopy.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

LCLS Big Data Handling – How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Data Deluge

Advanced data and computing systems are vital to Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) operations, data interpretation and overall scientific productivity. The transition to MHz-era operation marks a fundamental change in scale that requires new infrastructure and architectures to link LCLS to the required scale of computing needed for scientific interpretation. The LCLS-II Data System meets big data challenges by implementing configurable data reduction that can adapt to multiple science areas, real-time analysis frameworks to provide visualization and fast feedback, and the ability to transfer data to local and remote computational facilities for near real time analysis at the appropriate scale. Feature extracted information generated in the data analysis pipeline - at the edge, local compute, or remote High-Performance Computing (HPC) resources - can be used to steer experiments and inform user decisions during beam time. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques present new opportunities to rapidly analyse large datasets and direct experiments, but create new challenges in scaling, adaptability, complexity, and trustworthiness. We describe how the LCLS-II Data System architecture addresses its data-driven challenges in the areas of data acquisition, data processing, data management, and workflow orchestration to decrease the overall time-to-science and provide a vision for future developments.

artificial intelligence

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan

ML–Enabled FPGA Framework for Fast Quantum State Discrimination in Mid-Circuit Measurement Regimes

Accurate and low-latency quantum state discrimination is essential for protocols involving mid-circuit measurement (MCM) and conditional feed-forward. In superconducting quantum systems, conventional readout pipelines transfer measurement data to host processors for post-processing, introducing millisecond-scale delays that far exceed qubit coherence times. To overcome this bottleneck, we present an in-situ machine learning (ML) inference engine implemented on an FPGA for real-time quantum state discrimination. Our design performs inference directly on digitized readout signals with 40 ns latency, supports both qubit and qutrit readout, and enables conditional operations without host-side intervention. This capability is critical for MCM and for feedback-driven protocols such as quantum error correction. We validate the system on superconducting transmon hardware, demonstrating robust discrimination fidelity across multiple qubit and qutrit channels. We further demonstrate conditional qutrit logic driven by FPGA-resident classification, highlighting the potential of low-latency ML-on-FPGA control for NISQ applications and scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing.

Vora, Neel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse

Integration and Demonstration of Monitoring, Modeling, and Prediction of DV-1 Amendment Performance at the Bench Scale: DV-1 Amendment Demonstration

During fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Field Office commissioned Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to conduct applied research aimed at reducing the cost, time, and uncertainty associated with in situ treatment of vadose zone contaminants at the Hanford Site. This report outlines the integration of three key research efforts into a meso-scale demonstration designed to advance field-scale solutions that aim to (1) optimize the delivery of chemical amendments to contaminated soils, (2) reduce uncertainty in amendment delivery performance assessment using advanced monitoring techniques, and (3) provide real-time insights into when and where amendment-induced precipitation reactions occur in the subsurface. To achieve these objectives, the tank-scale (~ 1 cubic meter) Geophysical Imaging of Flow and Transport (GIFT) system was developed. GIFT enables experimental testing of amendment delivery while incorporating automated multi-modal monitoring approaches, including pressure measurements, direct fluid sampling, and remote time-lapse geophysical imaging. The data generated from these monitoring techniques will serve as inputs for a generative artificial-intelligence-driven digital twin – a numerical simulation model designed to honor observed data while quantifying uncertainty in simulation accuracy. Using this simulator, researchers will refine an amendment injection strategy to maximize delivery efficiency within a low-permeability soil zone. Monitoring data will be interpreted through simulated outputs to enhance understanding of the injection process. The efficacy of this integrated approach will be evaluated through direct sampling at the conclusion of the experiment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Insights Into On-Demand Transit: A Case Study of Houston METRO's curb2curb Service

As modern on-demand transit (ODT) deployments increase, the insights gained from studying real-world systems prove more useful. In this study, a shared ODT system called "METRO curb2curb" in the suburbs of Houston, Texas was studied, with a particular focus on the Missouri City zone, which has the highest ridership out of the four total zones. The Missouri City zone is 18 square miles with an average daily ridership of nearly 400 as of November 2024. In order to gain a passenger perspective, data collection was performed through using the ODT system first-hand, completing 50 rides in March and April of 2023. These rides included a mix of three different types of on-demand travel accommodations - 1.) advance bookings (30 min - 2 hours ahead), 2.) as-soon-as-possible / real-time dispatch bookings, and 3.) no-reservation trips at two designated "anchor points." Wait and travel time were collected for each ride. Anecdotal findings related to ease of locating the driver/vehicle, the process of booking a ride, and popular trip purposes were also documented. This study provides an overview of the METRO curb2curb system, including its history, service provider, service area, ridership, booking options, wait time, and travel time. Intricacies related to different definitions of wait time are included. Finally, relevant considerations for automating the on-demand transit system and discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science. ML is often not just a matter of straightforward application, and pretrained models proved ineffective in this case. Instead, we trained our own neural network (NN) and applied data augmentation techniques and fine-tuning to the training dataset. Since labeled microscopy data is often scarce, we developed training data from a previously published wide-frame MXene image, using customized Gaussian fitting to locate atomic positions. Our trained model was then applied to a large dataset of experimental images, enabling a statistical study of defect configurations across three samples prepared with different HF etchant concentrations (5%, 9.1%, and 12.5%), as shown in Fig. 1. This also allowed us to investigate local strain around vacancies, though we find that we are limited by the precision of measurements using high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images, as shown in Fig. 2. This study demonstrates how ML enables large-scale, quantitative analysis of atomic defects - an otherwise infeasible task with traditional methods. While our NN was specialized for Ti3C2 MXenes, the pipeline we developed provides a foundation for future ML models tailored to other materials. Ultimately, we envision embedding the NN onto the microscope to give real-time feedback to the user. To make this a reality, continued work is necessary to fully understand the NN's capabilities and limitations. This study gets one step closer to our goals of automated experimentation moving away from traditional methods of manual labeling. As ML capabilities advance, we hope to continue adapting and applying these techniques in microscopy.

2D materials

Towards Online Machine Learning in DUNE Data Acquisition

Processing the large volumes of data produced by liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments presents a significant challenge, especially those at the scale of DUNE. This is a particular challenge when aiming to trigger on low-energy neutrinos from core-collapse supernovae, which are typically buried in a high-rate radiological background. To enable real-time event selection suitable for such rare signals, we are developing machine learning based data filtering methods. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we implemented such pipeline using the ICEBERG detector at Fermilab as a small-scale LArTPC, with a focus on identifying Michel electrons as a proxy for low-energy neutrino interactions. This poster will present the current status of integrating these machine learning models into the data acquisition (DAQ) system of this detector.

Dalager, Olivia [Fermilab]

Resilience Through Data-Driven, Intelligent Designed Control: A Formal Methods Approach

The PNNL and GTRI team developed a strategy to integrate temporal logic rule specification for detection of cyber-intrusion in the source code and control algorithms of CPS using advanced cyber-data. The GTRI team utilized its capabilities in rule synthesis and temporal logic specifications for software assurance and verification to detect and predict impact of cyber-intrusions and malware in the computational and control algorithms of cyber-physical systems. The team also developed a testing and verification approach that could be used to validate the suggested approach against a realistic use-case CPS showcasing improvements in system impact prediction performance. Temporal logic offers a compact expression of events in absolute and relative time and has a formalized translation to state machines. As such, temporal logic rules can feasibly be synthesized to any system as a rule engine, with the process being formally verified to be correct. The goal here is to utilize temporal logic rules to detect cyber-attacks and manipulations in the computational algorithms and provide real-time software assurance and verification guarantees.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Study on Application of Distributed Network of Sensors with List Mode for NMAC Literature Review

Nuclear material accounting and control (NMAC) for nuclear security detects, deters, and resolves questions related to unauthorized removal (i.e. theft) or misuse of nuclear material. NMAC also serves as a key insider threat mitigation measure and aids in recovery of nuclear material that is missing. Effective nuclear security depends on NMAC for timely and accurate information about nuclear material types, quantities, and locations. Bulk nuclear material processing facilities, however, present unique challenges for effective NMAC due to the presence of large quantities of material in-process and the accumulation of residual material holdup within process equipment. These holdup accumulations can obscure accurate physical inventory taking and complicate efforts to resolve NMAC irregularities at the facility level. Bulk material monitoring systems often rely on material balance calculations and indirect measurement techniques, which may mask protracted theft of smaller amounts of nuclear material. These monitoring limitations have generated increased interest in continuous monitoring technologies, including distributed non-destructive assay (NDA) sensor networks capable of providing real-time or near-real-time measurement of material movement and accumulation within bulk processing environments. Recent advancements in distributed networks of NDA radiation detectors and sensing technologies provide an opportunity to address these limitations. Although such distributed sensor networks have been implemented in select facilities for IAEA Safeguards applications, their potential for supporting NMAC functions specifically tailored to nuclear security objectives remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, emerging list-mode data acquisition technologies have reached high technology readiness levels, enabling time-correlated detection of nuclear events across multiple temporal scales. These capabilities provide enhanced opportunities for accurate holdup measurement, continuous process monitoring, and improved detection of material theft or misuse over time. The increasing global expansion of civil nuclear power and development of related bulk material processing facilities, including those supporting high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) and other advanced reactor fuel fabrication, further increases the need for advanced measurement and monitoring strategies for NMAC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Overview of IMPACT Data Acquisition System and Data Reduction Process

This report documents the development of the data acquisition system (DAS) and data reduction methodologies for the Irradiated Material Property Accelerated Characterization Test (IMPACT) experiment at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). The IMPACT experiment is designed to enable in-pile measurement of thermal conductivity in metallic nuclear fuels, specifically U-10Zr, using an instrumented thermal conductivity probe. The DAS supports both passive temperature monitoring and active thermal interrogation of the probe through controlled AC and DC excitation. Significant modifications to laboratory-scale systems were required to accommodate the higher resistance paths associated with the in-pile application. Custom electronics and relay-controlled measurement sequencing were developed to enable the measurement and sufficient power delivery to the sensing region. A reduced-order, axisymmetric thermal model based on the thermal quadrupoles method is presented to support data interpretation. This model enables efficient evaluation of transient heat transfer behavior and facilitates solution of the inverse problem required to extract thermal properties from measured signals. Multiple boundary condition formulations are discussed to address varying experimental time scales and geometries. Additionally, machine learning techniques are introduced to support data reduction and improve confidence in inverse solutions. Convolutional neural networks are applied to identify the presence of gas gaps and other evolving geometric features that significantly impact thermal response during irradiation. These efforts contribute to the broader integration of digital twin frameworks and real-time modeling capabilities within the Advanced Fuels Campaign.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)

Insights Into On-Demand Transit: A Case Study of Houston METRO's curb2curb Transit Services: Preprint

As modern on-demand transit (ODT) deployments increase, the insights gained from studying real-world systems prove more useful. In this study, a shared ODT system called "METRO curb2curb" in the suburbs of Houston, Texas was studied, with a particular focus on the Missouri City zone, which has the highest ridership out of the four total zones in which the system operates. The Missouri City zone spans 18 square miles with an average daily ridership of nearly 400 as of November 2024. In order to gain a passenger perspective, data collection was performed through using the ODT system first-hand, completing 50 rides in March and April of 2023. These rides included a mix of three different types of on-demand travel accommodations - 1.) advance bookings (30 min - 2 hours ahead), 2.) as-soon-as-possible / real-time dispatch bookings, and 3.) no-reservation trips at two designated "anchor points." Wait and travel time were collected for each ride. Anecdotal findings related to ease of locating the driver/vehicle, the process of booking a ride, and popular trip purposes were also documented. This study provides an overview of the METRO curb2curb system, including its history, service provider, service area, ridership, booking options, wait time, and travel time. Intricacies related to different definitions of wait time are included. Finally, relevant considerations for automating the on-demand transit system and discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS