Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “reduced temperature trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

ecosystems↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

Thermal signatures of urban land cover types: High-resolution thermal infrared remote sensing of urban heat island in Huntsville, AL

The main objective of this research is to apply airborne high-resolution thermal infrared imagery for urban heat island studies, using Huntsville, AL, a medium-sized American city, as the study area. The occurrence of urban heat islands represents human-induced urban/rural contrast, which is caused by deforestation and the replacement of the land surface by non-evaporating and non-porous materials such as asphalt and concrete. The result is reduced evapotranspiration and more rapid runoff of rain water. The urban landscape forms a canopy acting as a transitional zone between the atmosphere and the land surface. The composition and structure of this canopy have a significant impact on the thermal behavior of the urban environment. Research on the trends of surface temperature at rapidly growing urban sites in the United States during the last 30 to 50 years suggests that significant urban heat island effects have caused the temperatures at these sites to rise by 1 to 2 C. Urban heat islands have caused changes in urban precipitation and temperature that are at least similar to, if not greater than, those predicted to develop over the next 100 years by global change models. Satellite remote sensing, particularly NOAA AVHRR thermal data, has been used in the study of urban heat islands. Because of the low spatial resolution (1.1 km at nadir) of the AVHRR data, these studies can only examine and map the phenomenon at the macro-level. The present research provides the rare opportunity to utilize 5-meter thermal infrared data acquired from an airplane to characterize more accurately the thermal responses of different land cover types in the urban landscape as input to urban heat island studies.

Lo, Chor Pang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Dependence of Band Gap Renormalization in High-T Sensor Materials via First-Principles and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of high-T gas sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in metal oxides and perovskites by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona theory with first-principles simulations and corroborate with experimental observation. The calculated temperature-dependent band gap changes of these materials studied are in good agreement with in-house experimental data, proving that the theory can adequately predict renormalization on the band gap in the system of interest. The predicted and measured band gap variations are characterized using an analytical model, which can provide useful insights on the simulated zero-temperature band gaps. Based on the available data, a set of 53 metal oxides and perovskites were identified as potential high-T gas sensors. A machine learning model has been developed to predict the band-gap change by capturing the overall trend of the empirical parameters with respect to a reduced feature obtained by transforming the set of available physical features.

Park, Jongwoo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Densification, microstructure, and mechanical properties of Mo–30W alloys fabricated from conditioned powders

Refractory alloys, such as molybdenum-based systems, are attracting growing interest for applications in extreme environments, such as in the nuclear and aerospace industries. Recent advances in sintering technologies, coupled with mechanical alloying, have enabled the tailored design of these alloys by leveraging powder characteristics to control final microstructures and mechanical properties. In this study, Mo-30W alloys were fabricated using electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS) from ball-milled powders with and without hydrogen treatment to investigate the influence of surface oxides on material properties and sintering behavior. The results revealed that samples processed from as-ball-milled powder contained a high density of oxides within the microstructure, whereas oxide presence was significantly reduced in samples fabricated from hydrogen-treated powders. Interestingly, the two powder types led to opposite trends in grain size distribution: samples from untreated powders exhibited grain refinement from sample periphery to the center, while samples from hydrogen-treated powders showed grain coarsening toward the center. This behavior is attributed to temperature gradients present during sintering due to electrical percolation pathway differences during Joule heating. The powder surface oxides may have influenced the temperature distribution and grain evolution. Microhardness profiles measured along both axial and thickness directions were consistent with the grain size distribution. Furthermore, oxide films on powder surfaces have delayed densification by hindering particle necking and atomic diffusion during sintering.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theoretical analysis of energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange mode stabilization strategies using a Landau closure model

The aim of the present study is to perform a theoretical analysis of different strategies to stabilize energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange mode (EIC) in Large Helical Device (LHD) plasma. In this work, we use a reduced MHD for the thermal plasma coupled with a gyrofluid model for the energetic particles (EP) species. The hellically trapped EP component is introduced through a modification of the drift frequency to include their precessional drift. The stabilization trends of the 1/1 EIC observed experimentally with respect to the thermal plasma density and temperature are reproduced by the simulations, showing a reasonable agreement with the data. The LHD operation scenarios with stable 1/1 EIC are identified, leading to the stabilization of the 1/1 EIC if the thermal plasma density and temperature are above a given threshold. Additionally, the 1/1 EIC are also stabilized if the rotational transform is modified in a way that the 1/1 rational surface is located further away than 0.9 times the normalized radius, or the magnetic shear in the plasma periphery is enhanced. Also, LHD discharges with large magnetic fields show a higher EIC destabilization threshold with respect to the thermal plasma density. If the perpendicular NBI deposition region is moved further inward than 0.875 times the normalized radius the 1/1 EIC are also stabilized. Furthermore, increasing the perpendicular NBI voltage such that the EP energy is higher than 30 keV stabilizes the 1/1 EIC. Moreover, deuterium plasmas show a higher stability threshold for the 1/1 EIC than hydrogen plasmas. The experimental data shows a larger time interval between EIC events as the power of the tangential NBI is increased providing that the perpendicular NBI power is at least 13 MW. This implies a stabilizing effect of the tangential NBI.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Constitutive modelling of single crystal and directionally solidified superalloys

The trend towards improved engine efficiency and durability places increasing demands on materials that operate in the hot section of the gas turbine engine. These demands are being met by new coatings and materials such as single crystal and directionally solidified nickel-base superalloys which have greater creep/fatigue resistance at elevated temperatures and reduced susceptibility to grain boundary creep, corrosion and oxidation than conventionally cast alloys. Work carried out as part of a research program aimed at the development of constitutive equations to describe the elevated temperature stress-strain-time behavior of single crystal and directionally solidified turbine blade superalloys is discussed. The program involves both development of suitable constitutive models and their verification through elevated temperature tension-torsion testing of single crystals of PWA 1480.

Jordan, E. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A parametric heat transfer study for cryogenic ball bearings in SSME HPOTP

A numerical modeling is to examine the effects of coolant convective heat transfer coefficient and frictional heating on the local temperature characteristics of a ball element in Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP) bearing. The present modeling uses a control-volume based, finite-difference method to solve the non-dimensionalized heat conduction equation in spherical coordinate system. The dimensionless temperature is found as a function of Biot number, heat flux ratio between the two race contacts, and location in the ball. The current results show that, for a given cooling capability, the ball temperature generally increases almost linearly with the heat input from the race-contacts. This increase is always very high at one of the two contacts. An increase in heat transfer coefficient generally reduces the ball temperature and alleviates the temperature gradient, except for the regions very close to the race contacts. For a 10-fold increase of heat transfer coefficient, temperature decrease is 35 percent for the average over entire ball, and 10 percent at the inner-race contact. The corresponding change of temperature gradient displays opposing trends between the regions immediately adjacent to the contacts and the remaining portion of the ball. The average temperature gradient in the vicinity of both contacts increases approximately 70 to 100 percent. A higher temperature gradient produces excessive thermal stress locally which may be detrimental to the material integrity. This, however, is the only unfavorable issue for an increase of heat transfer coefficient.

Chyu, Mingking K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2014

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

ocean heat content↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Impact on Simulated Storm Structure and Intensity of Variations in the Lifted Condensation Level and the Level of Free Convection

The sensitivities of convective storm structure and intensity to changes in the altitudes of the prestorm environmental lifted condensation level and level of free convection axe studied using a full-physics three-dimensional cloud model. Matrices of simulations are conducted for a range of LCL=LFC altitudes, using a single moderately-sheared curved hodograph trace in conjunction with 1 convective available potential energy values of either 800 or 2000 J/kg, with the matrices consisting of all four combinations of two distinct choices of buoyancy and shear profile shape. For each value of CAPE, the LCL=LFC altitudes are also allowed to vary in a series of simulations based on the most highly compressed buoyancy and shear profiles for that CAPE, with the environmental buoyancy profile shape, subcloud equivalent potential temperature, subcloud lapse rates of temperature and moisture, and wind profile held fixed. For each CAPE, one final simulation is conducted using a near optimal LFC, but a lowered LCL, with a neutrally buoyant environmental thermal profile specified in between. Results show that, for the buoyancy-starved small-CAPE environments, the simulated storms are supercells and are generally largest and most intense when LCL=LFC altitudes lie in the approximate range 1.5-2.5 km above the surface. The simulations show similar trends for the shear-starved large-CAPE environments, except that conversion from supercell to multicell morphology frequently occurs when the LCL is high. For choices of LCL=LFC height within the optimal 1.5-2.5 km range, peak storm updraft overturning efficiency may approaches unity relative to parcel theory, while for lower LCL=LFC heights, overturning efficiency is reduced significantly. The enhancements of overturning efficiency and updraft diameter with increasing LFC height are shown to be the result of systematic increases in the mean equivalent potential temperature of the updraft at cloud base. For the shear-starved environments, the tendency for outflow dominance is eliminated, but a large overturning efficiency maintained, when a low LCL is used in conjunction with a high LFC. The result regarding outflow dominance at high LCL is consistent with expectations, but the beneficial effect of a high LFC on convective overturning efficiency has not previously been widely recognized. The simulation findings here also appear to be consistent with statistics from previous severe storm environment climatologies, but provide a new framework for interpreting those statistics.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermomagnetic properties of Bi 2 Te 3 single crystal in the temperature range from 55 K to 380 K

Magnetothermoelectric transport provides an understanding of coupled electron-hole-phonon current in topological materials and has applications in energy conversion and cooling. In this paper, we study the Nernst coefficient, the magneto-Seebeck coefficient, and the magnetoresistance of single-crystalline Bi 2 Te 3 under external magnetic field in the range of –3T to 3T and in the temperature range of 55 K to 380 K. Moreau's relation is employed to justify both the overall trend of the Nernst coefficient and the temperature at which this coefficient changes sign. We observe a nonlinear relationship between the Nernst coefficient and the applied magnetic field in the temperature range of 55 K to 255 K. An increase in both the Nernst coefficient and the magneto-Seebeck coefficient is observed as the temperature is reduced which can be attributed to the increased mobility of the carriers at lower temperatures. First-principles density functional theory calculations were carried out to physically model the experimental data including electronic and transport properties. Simulation findings agreed with the experiments and provide a theoretical insight to justify the measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1973

A mathematical model for jet engine combustor pollutant emissions

Mathematical modeling for the description of the origin and disposition of combustion-generated pollutants in gas turbines is presented. A unified model in modular form is proposed which includes kinetics, recirculation, turbulent mixing, multiphase flow effects, swirl and secondary air injection. Subelements of the overall model were applied to data relevant to laboratory reactors and practical combustor configurations. Comparisons between the theory and available data show excellent agreement for basic CO/H2/Air chemical systems. For hydrocarbons the trends are predicted well including higher-than-equilibrium NO levels within the fuel rich regime. Although the need for improved accuracy in fuel rich combustion is indicated, comparisons with actual jet engine data in terms of the effect of combustor-inlet temperature is excellent. In addition, excellent agreement with data is obtained regarding reduced NO emissions with water droplet and steam injection.

Boccio, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Rewetting of Monogroove Heat Pipe in Space Station Radiators

Experimental investigation of the rewetting characteristics of a uniformly heated grooved surface was performed, the results of which are presented in this work. It was found that, for a rewetting fluid of 2-propanol, the rewetting temperature was approx. 93-96 C for the upward-facing case and about 2 C lower for the downwardfacing case. When the initial plate temperature was higher than the rewetting temperature, the rewetting speed decreased with the initial plate temperature. The rewetting speed is also faster in the upward-facing case than in the downward-facing case for the same initial plate temperatures, which indicates a gravitational effect on rewetting. This trend is found to be consistent with the previously investigated end heating condition. The rewetting distance that is predicted by the conduction controlled model is found to be in fair agreement with the experimental data. Also, an apparatus that enables experiments to be performed in a reduced gravitational environment has been built and experiments are currently being performed. The design of this apparatus is presented along with preliminary data.

Chan, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Performance of a Model Rich Burn-quick Mix-lean Burn Combustor at Elevated Temperature and Pressure

As interest in pollutant emission from stationary and aero-engine gas turbines increases, combustor engineers must consider various configurations. One configuration of increasing interest is the staged, rich burn - quick mix - lean burn (RQL) combustor. This report summarizes an investigation conducted in a recently developed high pressure gas turbine combustor facility. The model RQL combustor was plenum fed and modular in design. The fuel used for this study is Jet-A which was injected from a simplex atomizer. Emission (CO2, CO, O2, UHC, NOx) measurements were obtained using a stationary exit plane water-cooled probe and a traversing water-cooled probe which sampled from the rich zone exit and the lean zone entrance. The RQL combustor was operated at inlet temperatures ranging from 367 to 700 K, pressures ranging from 200 to 1000 kPa, and combustor reference velocities ranging from 10 to 20 m/s. Variations were also made in the rich zone and lean zone equivalence ratios. Several significant trends were observed. NOx production increased with reaction temperature, lean zone equivalence ratio and residence time and decreased with increased rich zone equivalence ratio. NOx production in the model RQL combustor increased to the 0.4 power with increased pressure. This correlation, compared to those obtained for non-staged combustors (0.5 to 0.7), suggests a reduced dependence on NOx on pressure for staged combustors. Emissions profiles suggest that rich zone mixing is not uniform and that the rich zone contributes on the order of 16 percent to the total NOx produced.

Peterson, Christopher O.↗
NASA NTRS2020

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗