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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

Southern Ocean Heat Storage, Reemergence, and Winter Sea Ice Decline Induced by Summertime Winds

The observational record shows a substantial 40-yr upward trend in summertime westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, as characterized by the southern annular mode (SAM) index. Enhanced summertime westerly winds have been linked to cold summertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous studies have suggested that Ekman transport or upwelling is responsible for this seasonal cooling. Here, another process is presented in which enhanced vertical mixing, driven by summertime wind anomalies, moves heat downward, cooling the sea surface and simultaneously warming the subsurface waters. The anomalously cold SSTs draw heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, leading to increased depth-integrated ocean heat content. The subsurface heat is returned to the surface mixed layer during the autumn and winter as the mixed layer deepens, leading to anomalously warm SSTs and potentially reducing sea ice cover. Observational analyses and numerical experiments support our proposed mechanism, showing that enhanced vertical mixing produces subsurface warming and cools the surface mixed layer. Nevertheless, the dominant driver of surface cooling remains uncertain; the relative importance of advective and mixing contributions to the surface cooling is model dependent. Modeling results suggest that sea ice volume is more sensitive to summertime winds than sea ice extent, implying that enhanced summertime westerly winds may lead to thinner sea ice in the following winter, if not lesser ice extent. Thus, strong summertime winds could precondition the sea ice cover for a rapid retreat in the following melt season.

Southern Ocean↗
NASA NTRS1998

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Viewed from Space

Over the past 20 years, satellite passive-microwave radiometry has provided a marvelous means for obtaining information about the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and particularly about sea ice concentrations (% areal coverages) and from them ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season. This ability derives from the sharp contrast between the microwave emissions of sea ice versus liquid water and allows routine monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover, which typically varies in extent from a minimum of about 8,000,000 sq km in September to a maximum of about 15,000,000 sq km in March, the latter value being over 1.5 times the area of either the United States or Canada. The vast Arctic ice cover has many impacts, including hindering heat, mass, and y momentum exchanges between the oceans and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface, affecting freshwater transports and ocean circulation, and serving as a vital surface for many species of polar animals. These direct impacts also lead to indirect impacts, including effects on local and perhaps global atmospheric temperatures, effects that are being examined in general circulation modeling studies, where preliminary results indicate that changes on the order of a few percent sea ice concentration can lead to temperature changes of 1 K or greater even in local areas outside of the sea ice region. Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities in both the ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 km(2), while individual regions showed much greater percentage variations, e.g., with the Greenland Sea experiencing a range of 740,000 - 1,1110,000 km(2) in its yearly maximum ice coverage. Although variations from year to year and region to region are large, overall the Arctic ice extents did show a statistically significant, 2.8%/ decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, and mapping their trends allows detailed geographic information on exactly where the ice season lengthened and where it shortened. Over the 18 years, ice season lengthening occurred predominantly in the western hemisphere and was strongest in the western Labrador Sea, while ice season shortening occurred predominantly in the eastern hemisphere and was strongest in the eastern Barents Sea. Much information about other important Arctic sea ice variables has also been obtained from satellite data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities. For instance, maps of ice velocities have now been made from satellite scatterometry data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Space qualification of UV and IR reflecting coverslides for GaAs solar cells

As part of the space qualification effort for blue-red reflecting coverslides designed for use with GaAs solar cells, the first long-term (3000 hours) UV testing of unirradiated and 1 MeV electron-irradiated GaAs solar cells, with 4 types of multilayer-coated coverslides to reduce operating temperature, has produced some unexpected results. Important conclusions from this study, which includes two parallel tests, are as follows: (1) All of the GaAs solar cells with multilayer-coated coverslides display UV degradation. The laboratory data, extrapolated to 10 years in orbit, point to a significant loss mechanism from a combination of absorption and a reduction in optical match in such coatings from this portion of the space environment; (2) The effects of contamination in a vacuum system, on the measured degradation in solar-cell short-circuit current during a UV test, depend upon the type of coverslide coatings present on the coverslide surfaces. This has implications for both coated coverslides and optical solar reflectors (OSR's) in space; and (3) Because of the observed trends in this test and uncertainties in the extrapolation of data for multilayer coated coverslides, the use of any multilayer-coated coverslides for extended missions (greater than 1 year) cannot be recommended without prior flight testing.

Meulenberg, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗
NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Agee, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stardust: Studies in microgravity of condensation and agglomeration of cosmic dust analogue

A short description of the program Stardust whose goal is to study the formation and properties of high temperature particles and gases, including silicate and carbonaceous materials, that are of interest in astrophysics and planetary science, is given. The international program was carried out in microgravity conditions in parabolic flight. A description of the laboratory equipment, conceived to perform experimental tests in reduced gravity conditions, and which is based on the gas evaporation technique, is given. The gas evaporation technique utilizes one or more heated crucible to vaporize solids materials (SiO, Mg) in a low pressure of inert or reactive gas inside of a vacuum bell jar. The vapor pressures of the materials are controlled by the temperature of the crucibles. The temperature and pressure of inert gas are also controlled. By varying the vapor pressure relative to the gas temperature and pressure, the conditions for substantial grain condensation can be controlled and grain formation measured using light scattering techniques. Thus the partial pressure for grain condensation, can be measured as a function of temperature. The gas evaporation technique has the advantage that complex chemical systems can be studied by using multiple crucibles each containing solid source material. Experimental results and future trends are addressed.

Ferguson, F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

IRIS Product Recommendations

This report presents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of SIGMET Inc.'s Integrated Radar Information System (IRIS) Product Generator and recommendations for products emphasizing lightning and microburst tools. The IRIS Product Generator processes radar reflectivity data from the Weather Surveillance Radar, model 74C (WSR-74C), located on Patrick Air Force Base. The IRIS System was upgraded from version 6.12 to version 7.05 in late December 1999. A statistical analysis of atmospheric temperature variability over the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Weather Station provided guidance for the configuration of radar products that provide information on the mixed-phase (liquid and ice) region of clouds, between 0 C and -20 C. Mixed-phase processes at these temperatures are physically linked to electrification and the genesis of severe weather within convectively generated clouds. Day-to-day variations in the atmospheric temperature profile are of sufficient magnitude to warrant periodic reconfiguration of radar products intended for the interpretation of lightning and microburst potential of convectively generated clouds. The AMU also examined the radar volume-scan strategy to determine the scales of vertical gaps within the altitude range of the 0 C to -20 C isotherms over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS area. This report present's two objective strategies for designing volume scans and proposes a modified scan strategy that reduces the average vertical gap by 37% as a means for improving radar observations of cloud characteristics in the critical 0 C to -20 C layer. The AMU recommends a total of 18 products, including 11 products that require use of the IRIS programming language and the IRIS User Product Insert feature. Included is a cell trends product and display, modeled after the WSR-88D cell trends display in use by the National Weather Service.

Short, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Metal-Poor, Strongly Star-Forming Galaxies in the DEEP2 Survey: The Relationship Between Stellar Mass, Temperature-Based Metallicity, and Star Formation Rate

We report on the discovery of 28 redshift (z) approximately equal to 0.8 metal-poor galaxies in DEEP2. These galaxies were selected for their detection of the weak [O (sub III)] lambda 4363 emission line, which provides a "direct" measure of the gas-phase metallicity. A primary goal for identifying these rare galaxies is to examine whether the fundamental metallicity relation (FMR) between stellar mass, gas metallicity, and star formation rate (SFR) holds for low stellar mass and high SFR galaxies. The FMR suggests that higher SFR galaxies have lower metallicity (at fixed stellar mass). To test this trend, we combine spectroscopic measurements of metallicity and dust-corrected SFR with stellar mass estimates from modeling the optical photometry. We find that these galaxies are 1.05 plus or minus 0.61 dex above the redshift (z) approximately 1 stellar mass-SFR relation and 0.23 plus or minus 0.23 dex below the local mass-metallicity relation. Relative to the FMR, the latter offset is reduced to 0.01 dex, but significant dispersion remains dex with 0.16 dex due to measurement uncertainties). This dispersion suggests that gas accretion, star formation, and chemical enrichment have not reached equilibrium in these galaxies. This is evident by their short stellar mass doubling timescale of approximately equal to 100 (sup plus 310) (sub minus 75) million years which suggests stochastic star formation. Combining our sample with other redshift (z) of approximately 1 metal-poor galaxies, we find a weak positive SFR-metallicity dependence (at fixed stellar mass) that is significant at 94.4 percent confidence. We interpret this positive correlation as recent star formation that has enriched the gas but has not had time to drive the metal-enriched gas out with feedback mechanisms.

Metal-Poor↗
NASA NTRS2021

Delaware Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Land Cover and Soil to Identify Suitable Sites for Tidal Marsh Migration in Delaware

Tidal wetlands provide vital resources for the state of Delaware, crucial not only for maintaining important ecosystem functions, but also for providing human populations with substantial services. Healthy wetland networks offer protection from severe weather, reduce flooding, improve water quality, and provide opportunities for education and recreation. However, human activities in combination with natural events, continue to cause substantial loss of wetland cover and damage wetland health. Over the last thirty years, the state of Delaware has experienced a net loss of roughly 5,000 acres of wetland. In collaboration with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC), the team used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to develop a methodology to monitor recent changes in wetland cover and forecast landward marsh migration due to sea-level rise, changes to climate, and human development. Trend analysis of current and past climate conditions in precipitation and temperature revealed an overall increase in both metrics. Using Land Change Modeler in TerrSet and Suitability Modeler in ArcGIS Pro, the team visualized landcover shifts over the last 20 years, indicating a general pattern of net wetland loss and identified locations where marsh migration could potentially occur in the future. These observations will enable better planning for restoration activities and in form decision-making to preserve wetland health and ecosystem functions.

McKenna Brahler↗
NASA NTRS1981

Cobalt: A vital element in the aircraft engine industry

Recent trends in the United States consumption of cobalt indicate that superalloys for aircraft engine manufacture require increasing amounts of this strategic element. Superalloys consume a lion's share of total U.S. cobalt usage which was about 16 million pounds in 1980. In excess of 90 percent of the cobalt used in this country was imported, principally from the African countries of Zaire and Zambia. Early studies on the roles of cobalt as an alloying element in high temperature alloys concentrated on the simple Ni-Cr and Nimonic alloy series. The role of cobalt in current complex nickel base superalloys is not well defined and indeed, the need for the high concentration of cobalt in widely used nickel base superalloys is not firmly established. The current cobalt situation is reviewed as it applies to superalloys and the opportunities for research to reduce the consumption of cobalt in the aircraft engine industry are described.

Stephens, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Efficacy of FTIR Analysis in Determining CO2 Loading on Diglycolamine

In support of advanced air revitalization technologies to enable human spaceflight beyond low earth orbit, performance studies have been conducted using a liquid amine, Diglycolamine (DGA) between teams at NASA?s Johnson Spaceflight Center (JSC) and Ames Research Center (ARC). Liquid amines have been used in regenerable earth-based systems to remove CO2 from industrial systems as well as for closed-environment air revitalization because they can be regenerated at lower temperatures than solid sorbent systems. As an additional advantage to solid sorbent based systems, liquid sorbents can be cycled between an adsorbing contactor and degassing chamber, thereby reducing system complexity by operation in a continuous loop. In an effort to inform a regeneration system design for micro-gravity applications, ARC has performed a number of tests to characterize the degas mechanics of DGA. In order to accurately measure the amount of CO2 captured or released by the amine, methods such as gravimetric weighing and chemical decomposition are reasonable, however the initial design for a scaled down degas system required analysis on small sample sizes. In order to accomplish CO2 loading measurements with a sample size of approximately 500µL, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was used. Calibration against acid decomposition showed relatively good correlation and test data showed reasonable adherence to expected trends, however more extensive testing should be conducted to fully validate the usage of FTIR to determine CO2 loading on DGA.

Diglycolamine↗
NASA NTRS1985

Assessing the capability of EOS sensors in measuring ocean-atmosphere moisture exchange

As part of the Science Synergism Studies to identify interdisciplinary Scientific studies, which could be addressed by the Environmental Observing System (EOS), the techniques being developed to measure ocean-atmosphere moisture exchanges using satellite sensors were evaluated. Studies required to use sensors proposed for EOS were examined. A method has been developed to compute the moisture flux using the wind speed, sea surface temperature, and preciptable water measured by satellite sensors. It relies on a statistical model which predicts surface-level humidity from precipitable water. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measures all 3 parameters and was found to be sensitive to the annual cycle and large interannual variations such as the 1982 to 1983 El Nino. There are systematic differences between geophysical parameters measured by Nimbus/SMMR and in situ measurements. After quadratic trends and crosstalks were removed from the parameters through multivariate regressions, the latent heat fluxes computed from SMMR agree with those computed from ship reports to within 30 W/sq m. The poor quality of ship reports may be the cause of a portion of this scatter. Similar results are found using SEASAT/SMMR data. When the scatterometer winds were used instead of the SMMR winds, the difference between the satellite fluxes and the ship fluxes was reduced.

Liu, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Effect of Residual Noncondensables on Pressurization and Pressure Control of a Zero-Boil-Off Tank in Microgravity

The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment is a small-scale experiment that uses a transparent ventless Dewar and a transparent simulant phase-change fluid to study sealed tank pressurization and pressure control with applications to on-surface and in-orbit storage of propellant cryogens. The experiment will be carried out under microgravity conditions aboard the International Space Station in the 2014 timeframe. This paper presents preliminary results from ZBOT's ground-based research that focuses on the effects of residual noncondensable gases in the ullage on both pressurization and pressure reduction trends in the sealed Dewar. Tank pressurization is accomplished through heating of the test cell wall in the wetted and un-wetted regions simultaneously or separately. Pressure control is established through mixing and destratification of the bulk liquid using a temperature controlled forced jet flow with different degrees of liquid jet subcooling. A Two-Dimensional axisymmetric two-phase CFD model for tank pressurization and pressure control is also presented. Numerical prediction of the model are compared to experimental 1g results to both validate the model and also indicate the effect of the noncondensable gas on evolution of pressure and temperature distributions in the ullage during pressurization and pressure control. Microgravity simulations case studies are also performed using the validated model to underscore and delineate the profound effect of the noncondensables on condensation rates and interfacial temperature distributions with serious implications for tank pressure control in reduced gravity.

Marangoni and Natural Convection↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mass Efficiency Considerations for Thermally Insulated Structural Skin of an Aerospace Vehicle

An approximate equation was derived to predict the mass of insulation required to limit the maximum temperature reached by an insulated structure subjected to a transient heating pulse. In the course of the derivation two figures of merit were identified. One figure of merit correlates to the effectiveness of the heat capacity of the underlying structural material in reducing the amount of required insulation. The second figure of merit provides an indicator of the mass efficiency of the insulator material. An iterative, one dimensional finite element analysis was used to size the external insulation required to protect the structure at a single location on the Space Shuttle Orbiter and a reusable launch vehicle. Required insulation masses were calculated for a range of different materials for both structure and insulator. The required insulation masses calculated using the approximate equation were shown to typically agree with finite element results within 10 to 20 percent over the range of parameters studied. Finite element results closely followed the trends indicated by both figures of merit.

Blosser, Max L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lidar Measurements of Methane and Applications for Aircraft and Spacecraft

Atmospheric methane levels have remained relatively constant over the last decade around 1.78 parts per million (ppm) but observations since 2007 show that levels may be increasing. This trend may be caused by increased fossil fuel production, rice farming, livestock and landfills, but the underlying causes are quite uncertain. One hypothesis is that reservoirs of carbon trapped in the permafrost regions of northern Canada, Europe, and Siberia thaw as global temperatures rise and are releasing increasing amounts of methane. Another hypothesis points to increased production of methane by microbes as the permafrost warms. Currently most observations of greenhouse gases are limited to in-situ (surface and tower sites) and limited airborne in-situ measurements. Space column density measurements are starting to become available from the GOSAT mission. Although methane survives for a shorter time in the atmosphere than CO2, its impact on climate change per molecule is about 23 times than that of CO2. Accurate global observations of several greenhouse gases, including methane, are urgently needed in order to better understand climate change processes and to reduce the uncertainty in the carbon budget. Differential absorption lidar is a well-established technique to measure atmospheric gases, and methane has optical absorption bands near 1.65,2.2,3.4 and 7.8 micron. The near infrared overtones lines of CH4 near 1650 nm are relatively free of interference from other species. There are absorption lines near 1651 nm which are both temperature insensitive and have line strengths well suited for lidar measurements. We have developed a laser and demonstrated lidar measurements of CH4 using lines in this band. Our laser uses a narrow linewidth 1064 nm laser pulse passing through a nonlinear crystal. We generate the tunable laser signals near 1651 nm by using the optical parametric amplification (OPA) process. Inside the crystal the 1064 nm beam overlaps with an injection seed laser near 1651 nm from a wavelength tunable diode laser. Incident photons from the pump laser pulse are converted into two photons, with one at the wavelength of the injection seeder. The wavelength of the OPA output is tuned via the wavelength of diode laser. Our laser is tunable, operates near 1651 nm and generates approximately 4 uJ/pulse at 6 KHz. We vary the emission wavelengths within this band by tuning the diode laser's wavelength. We have used this OPA transmitter to make measurements of CH4 at various pressures in a gas cell and over open outdoor horizontal paths. We have measured the lineshape of methane in a 6 cm long cell at various energy levels with this transmitter, with excellent agreement with the lineshape calculated by HITRAN. We have also measured the absorption lineshape of atmospheric methane in an open 3 km outdoor path. The agreement between the measurements and HITRAN, for 1746 ppb and 760 Torr was quite good. We have also made pulsed two wavelength lidar measurements of methane line absorption in the column to a tower at 1.5 km range. These used on- and off-line wavelengths of 1650.957 nm, and 1651.072 nm, and a 20 cm diameter receiver telescope with an infrared PMT detector. The absorption of the on-line photons was 30%. The methane column absorption was estimated via HITRAN, and was in good agreement with the expected methane absorption for a concentration of 1750 ppm. Finally we have calculated the measurement performance of an airborne methane lidar using this transmitter, as well as the energy and telescope scaling needed for a lidar for space. These results, and more details of our experiments will be described in the presentation.

Riris, Haris↗
NASA NTRS2018

Efficacy of FTIR Analysis in Determining CO2 Loading on Diglycolamine

In support of advanced air revitalization technologies to enable human spaceflight beyond low earth orbit, performance studies have been conducted using a liquid amine, Diglycolamine (DGA) between teams at NASA's Johnson Spaceflight Center (JSC) and Ames Research Center (ARC). Liquid amines have been used in regenerable earth-based systems to remove CO2 from industrial systems as well as for closed-environment air revitalization because they can be regenerated at lower temperatures than solid sorbent systems. As an additional advantage to solid sorbent-based systems, liquid sorbents can be cycled between an adsorbing contactor and degassing chamber, thereby reducing system complexity by operation in a continuous loop. In an effort to inform a regeneration system design for micro-gravity applications, ARC has performed a number of tests to characterize the degas mechanics of DGA. In order to accurately measure the amount of CO2 captured or released by the amine, methods such as gravimetric weighing and chemical desorption are reasonable, however the first iteration test setup for a scaled down degas system required analysis on small sample sizes. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis was experimentally evaluated to analyze CO2 concentration because it can produce measurements with sample sizes on the order of 100's of μL. Calibration against chemical desorption showed relatively good correlation and test data showed reasonable adherence to expected trends, however more extensive testing should be conducted to fully validate the usage of FTIR to determine CO2 loading on DGA.

Diglycolamine↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses: Can It Be Done?

Stratospheric ozone concentrations have begun to show early signs of recovery following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments as well as in response to decreasing upper-stratospheric temperatures. Secular trends in stratospheric ozone are modulated by considerable interannual variability and systematic changes in transport patterns that are expected under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially in the lower stratosphere. These factors necessitate the continued close monitoring of stratospheric ozone in upcoming decades, with a special focus on the lower stratosphere.As highly resolved data sets combining a plethora of observations with model simulations atmospheric reanalyses are, in principle, well suited for the task. All major reanalyses generate ozone output. However, significant spurious discontinuities that arise from step changes in the observing systems prevent a straightforward analysis of ozone trends and long-term variability. Building on our recent work, in this presentation we will demonstrate that trend detection is nonetheless possible using the ozone record from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function. Next, we will outline several strategies to reduce artificial discontinuities in the ozone record in future NASA reanalyses. This discussion will be illustrated by an example of joint assimilation of bias-corrected ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite (2004 to present) and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) sensors that are expected to operate on future NOAA platforms.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗