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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning predictions of the shale wells’ performance

The ultra-low permeability nature of shale reservoirs leads to an extended linear flow and necessitates horizontal wells with multi-stage engineered fractures to efficiently extract hydrocarbons resources. These artificially-generated and naturally-occurring fractures form complex networks that create complex flow regimes which control oil production. These fractures are neither identical nor equally-spaced, which leads to a production profile with a masked onset of the boundary-dominated flow. The combination of the extended linear flow with the indeterminate onset of the boundary-dominated flow challenges the current deterministic analytic approaches to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In this work, we propose a novel machine-learning approach which overcomes these challenges and provides reliable EUR estimates based on field-wide analyses. We implement a novel unsupervised machine learning (ML) methodology, which allows for automatic identification of the optimal number of features (signals) present in the data based on non-negative matrix/tensor factorization coupled with k-means clustering incorporating regularization and physics constraints. In the presented analyses, the input data to the ML algorithm is the available (public) production history from the field collected at existing unconventional reservoirs. We validate our approach through hindcasting of the production data, where we achieved an excellent agreement. In addition, our approach is able to identify the poorly-performing wells, which could benefit from early refracing. Our approach provides fast and accurate estimations of the well performance without presumptions about the state of the well or the flow regime.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent Development of Frequency Estimation Methods for Future Smart Grid

The frequency estimated by the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) is a critical index of power system status and supports many smart grid applications. The future smart grid features high penetration of renewables and more fast-moving power electronics inverters but raises challenges to the reliable frequency estimation. This article presents three methods to address these challenges. First, an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm was developed to track the fast-changing frequency in system dynamics. Second, we propose a technology that can tolerate the system transient and suppress the outliers. Third, an algorithm was developed to export high time-resolution frequency estimations with minimum computational effort. All of the proposed methods are realized in hardware and compared with classical frequency estimation methods. The testing results indicate that the proposed methods have excellent performance. They can be used in future PMUs and provide reliable and high time resolution data for smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the hydrological, energy and carbon cycles on the land surface. Quantifying ET and its spatio-temporal changes is also key to understanding climate extremes such as droughts, heatwaves and flooding. Regional ET estimates require reliable observation-based gridded ET datasets, and while many have been developed using physically based, empirically based and hybrid techniques, their efficacy, and particularly the efficacy of their uncertainty estimates, is difficult to verify. In this work, we extend the methodology used in Hobeichi et al. (2018) to derive two new versions of the Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE) product, with observationally constrained spatio-temporally varying uncertainty estimates, higher spatial resolution, more constituent products and extended temporal coverage (1980–2018). After demonstrating the efficacy of these uncertainty estimates with out-of-sample testing, we derive novel ET climatology clusters for the land surface, based on the magnitude and variability of ET at each location on land. The new clusters include three wet and three dry regimes and provide an approximation of Köppen–Geiger climate classes. The verified uncertainty estimates and extended time period then allow us to examine the robustness of historical trends spatially and in each of these six ET climatology clusters. We find that despite robust decreasing ET trends in some regions these do not correlate with behavioural ET clusters. Each cluster, and the majority of the Earth's surface, shows clear robust increases in ET over the recent historical period. The new datasets DOLCE V2.1 and DOLCE V3 can be used for benchmarking global ET estimates and for examining ET trends respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing

Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2021

CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the common-cause failure (CCF) data collection effort (which included data through 2020) and summarizes the results of the parameter estimation quantification process performed on CCF data in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database. This is the 2020 update to NUREG/CR-5497, updating data and parameter estimations for CCFs. This release, CCF Parameter Estimation 2020, reflects the CCF data contained within the CCF database, https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx, by executing (in August 2021) the CCF query rules in the folder SPAR Rules 2020. The data covers the period from 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2020, the most recent 15-year period in which data are available. The use of the most recent rolling 15-year data in parameter estimation differs from previous updates, in which 1/1/1997 was used as the starting date (e.g., 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2015 for the 2015 update, 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2012 for the 2012 update). The new date range (i.e., the most recent 15-year period), was selected for this CCF update so as to be consistent with the date range chosen for the component reliability parameter estimation, and with the effort to include sufficient data for analysis while simultaneously reflecting the most recent industry performance. These results are appropriate for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies, including the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. This update may be referred as: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update," https://nrcoe.inl.gov/publicdocs/CCF/ccfparamest2020.pdf, November 2021.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upscaling Soil Organic Carbon Measurements at the Continental Scale Using Multivariate Clustering Analysis and Machine Learning

Abstract Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are essential for many environmental applications. However, significant inconsistencies exist in SOC stock estimates for the U.S. across current SOC maps. We propose a framework that combines unsupervised multivariate geographic clustering (MGC) and supervised Random Forests regression, improving SOC maps by capturing heterogeneous relationships with SOC drivers. We first used MGC to divide the U.S. into 20 SOC regions based on the similarity of covariates (soil biogeochemical, bioclimatic, biological, and physiographic variables). Subsequently, separate Random Forests models were trained for each SOC region, utilizing environmental covariates and SOC observations. Our estimated SOC stocks for the U.S. (52.6 ± 3.2 Pg for 0–30 cm and 108.3 ± 8.2 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) were within the range estimated by existing products like Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD (46.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 90.7 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) and SoilGrids 2.0 (45.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 133.0 Pg for 0–100 cm depth). However, independent validation with soil profile data from the National Ecological Observatory Network showed that our approach ( R 2 = 0.51) outperformed the estimates obtained from Harmonized World Soil Database ( R 2 = 0.23) and SoilGrids 2.0 ( R 2 = 0.39) for the topsoil (0–30 cm). Uncertainty analysis (e.g., low representativeness and high coefficients of variation) identified regions requiring more measurements, such as Alaska and the deserts of the U.S. Southwest. Our approach effectively captures the heterogeneous relationships between widely available predictors and the current SOC baseline across regions, offering reliable SOC estimates at 1 km resolution for benchmarking Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signal recovery in distribution grids using compressive lossy measurements

Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Spectral evolution of white dwarfs by PDF analysis

We estimated the spectral evolution of white dwarfs with effective temperature using the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) second data release (DR2), which provides 12 photometric optical passbands over 2176 deg 2 . We analyzed 5926 white dwarfs with r ≤ 19.5 mag in common between a white dwarf catalog defined from Gaia EDR3 and J-PLUS DR2. We performed a Bayesian analysis by comparing the observed J-PLUS photometry with theoretical models of hydrogen- and helium-dominated atmospheres. We estimated the probability distribution functions for effective temperature (T eff ), surface gravity, parallax, and composition; and the probability of having a H-dominated atmosphere (p H ) for each source. We applied a prior in parallax, using Gaia EDR3 measurements as a reference, and derived a self-consistent prior for the atmospheric composition as a function of T eff . We described the fraction of white dwarfs with a He-dominated atmosphere (f He ) with a linear function of the effective temperature at 5000 < T eff < 30 000 K. We find f He = 0.24 ± 0.01 at T eff = 10 000 K, a change rate along the cooling sequence of 0.14 ± 0.02 per 10 kK, and a minimum He-dominated fraction of 0.08 ± 0.02 at the high-temperature end. We tested the obtained p H by comparison with spectroscopic classifications, finding that it is reliable. We estimated the mass distribution for the 351 sources with distance d < 100 pc, mass M > 0.45 M ⊙ , and T eff > 6000 K. The result for H-dominated white dwarfs agrees with previous studies, with a dominant M = 0.59 M ⊙ peak and the presence of an excess at M ~ 0.8 M ⊙ . This high-mass excess is absent in the He-dominated distribution, which presents a single peak. The J-PLUS optical data provide a reliable statistical classification of white dwarfs into H- and He-dominated atmospheres. We find a 21 ± 3% increase in the fraction of He-dominated white dwarfs from T eff = 20 000 K to T eff = 5000 K.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supervised Learning-Based Spatial Position Estimation with Vertical Displacement for Hovering UAV Wireless Power Transfer

This study presents a supervised learning-based spatial position estimation approach for wireless power transfer (WPT) systems supporting hovering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) charging. Unlike stationary charging scenarios, hovering UAVs introduce continuous lateral misalignment and vertical displacement, leading to variations in magnetic coupling and reduced power transfer efficiency. To address this challenge, the proposed method estimates the relative spatial position of the receiver coil using only electrical measurements obtained at the secondary side. A supervised learning model is trained to map output voltage and current features to spatial coordinates, enabling position awareness without requiring external sensors, vision systems, or communication links. The sensing functionality is inherently integrated into the WPT system, allowing simultaneous power transfer and localization through the same magnetic interface. Experimental validation is conducted on a laboratory-scale prototype under varying lateral offsets and air-gap conditions. In addition, spline-based interpolation is employed to increase spatial data density for training. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can capture spatial variations associated with both lateral and vertical displacement, providing reliable position estimation under hovering conditions. This work establishes a hardware-efficient, sensorless solution for UAV wireless charging and serves as a baseline for advanced data-driven position estimation methods in dynamic WPT systems.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Energy Survey Deep Field photometric redshift performance and training incompleteness assessment

Context. The determination of accurate photometric redshifts (photo-zs) in large imaging galaxy surveys is key for cosmological studies. One of the most common approaches are machine learning techniques. These methods require a spectroscopic or reference sample to train the algorithms. Attention has to be paid to the quality and properties of these samples since they are key factors in the estimation of reliable photo-zs. Aims. The goal of this work is to calculate the photo-zs for the Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue using the DNF machine learning algorithm. Moreover, we want to develop techniques to assess the incompleteness of the training sample and metrics to study how incompleteness affects the quality of photometric redshifts. Finally, we are interested in comparing the performance obtained with respect to the EAzY template fitting approach on Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue. Methods. We have emulated -- at brighter magnitude -- the training incompleteness with a spectroscopic sample whose redshifts are known to have a measurable view of the problem. We have used a principal component analysis to graphically assess incompleteness and to relate it with the performance parameters provided by DNF. Finally, we have applied the results about the incompleteness to the photo-z computation on Y3 DES Deep Fields with DNF and estimated its performance. Results. The photo-zs for the galaxies on DES Deep Fields have been computed with the DNF algorithm and added to the Y3 DES Deep Fields catalogue. They are available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/y3a2/Y3deepfields. Some techniques have been developed to evaluate the performance in the absence of "true" redshift and to assess completeness. We have studied... (Partial abstract)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Testing and Analysis

Prior to a spacecraft launch, program mission assurance standards dictate that the flight battery power system should comply with mission requirements under the intended operating conditions. Ground life cycle testing (LCT) combined with an analysis on the electrical power system (EPS) battery is an empirical method used to demonstrate compliance to satellite service life requirements. The LCT compliance method adopted by the aerospace industry is based on demonstrating a space battery's life expectancy as a part of battery qualification. Real-time cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) LCT data are commonly used for model inputs to EPS power and energy balance analyses, in LIB reliability analysis estimates, and to support on-orbit spacecraft mission life extension opportunities. This chapter describes the LCT planning steps, process approach, and analysis techniques commonly used to qualify space LIB power systems.

accelerated aging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a second-order thermal network model for residential buildings

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems can maintain the space air temperature of residential buildings, either directly by heating/cooling the air, or indirectly via heat transfer to and from the building structure that acts as a thermal mass. Hence, HVAC systems can help achieve load shifting, peak load reduction, and/or energy cost saving, thus enabling grid-interactive HVAC operation. A home thermal model that can accurately reflect the dynamics of the space air and interior wall surface temperatures, is therefore valuable. This paper develops such a model using the standard RC (resistance-capacitance) approach. The model contains a virtual envelope node and an internal space node and is thus second-order. A hybrid parameter identification scheme, made up of the least-squares and optimal search methods, is also developed. The proposed model and scheme were validated using data collected from a test home. It was found that a modest amount of training data was sufficient to yield reliable parameter estimates and accurate prediction. It was also found that when making 24-hour-ahead prediction of the space air temperature, both methods had comparable performances when the training data began in a transition season. However, when they began in an HVAC season, the optimal search method performed better. Furthermore, the least-squares method is recommended during a transition season due to its lower computational burden, while the optimal search method is recommended during an HVAC season due to its better estimation performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗