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At least 145 records · Page 8

Reliability models for dataflow computer systems

The demands for concurrent operation within a computer system and the representation of parallelism in programming languages have yielded a new form of program representation known as data flow (DENN 74, DENN 75, TREL 82a). A new model based on data flow principles for parallel computations and parallel computer systems is presented. Necessary conditions for liveness and deadlock freeness in data flow graphs are derived. The data flow graph is used as a model to represent asynchronous concurrent computer architectures including data flow computers.

Kavi, K. M.↗

An expert system for reliability modeling

A method is presented for computing the probability of failure of a unit during the next usage or mission based on sound statistical techniques. With the use of logit regression embedded in Lotus 1-2-3 macros, this package computes the probability of unit failure based upon a historical data base. Using this computed probability of failure, the package then makes a replacement recommendation based upon the experts acceptable risk parameters.

Goss, Ernst↗

Automated generation of reliability models

The abstract semi-Markov specification interface to the SURE (Semi-Markov Range Evaluator) tool (ASSIST) program allows the user to describe the Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of listing the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system, and these are used to automatically generate the model. A small number of statements in the abstract language can describe a large, complex model. Becuase no assumptions are made about the system being modeled, ASSIST can be used to generate models describing the behavior of any type of system. The abstract model definition and the automatic model generation strategy are described. Analysis of an example fault-tolerant architecture, a triad of processor with cold spare processors, shows how the behavior of a system can be captured by a few general rules. The syntax of the ASSIST input language is then described and demonstrated by creating a model to describe the fault behavior of the example architecture. The flexibility of the abstract language is demonstrated by expanding the example to model multiple triads of processors sharing a pool of cold spare processors.

Johnson, Sally C.↗

TLIFE: a Program for Spur, Helical and Spiral Bevel Transmission Life and Reliability Modeling

This report describes a computer program, 'TLIFE', which models the service life of a transmission. The program is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77 and has an executable size of about 157 K bytes for use on a personal computer running DOS. It can also be compiled and executed in UNIX. The computer program can analyze any one of eleven unit transmissions either singly or in a series combination of up to twenty-five unit transmissions. Metric or English unit calculations are performed with the same routines using consistent input data and a units flag. Primary outputs are the dynamic capacity of the transmission and the mean lives of the transmission and of the sum of its components. The program uses a modular approach to separate the load analyses from the system life calculations. The program and its input and output data files are described herein. Three examples illustrate its use. A development of the theory behind the analysis in the program is included after the examples.

Savage, M.↗

Design protocols and analytical strategies that incorporate structural reliability models

In spite of great improvements in accuracy through the use of computers, design methods, which can be equally critical in establishing the commercial success of a material, have been treated as afterthoughts. Early investment in design and development technologies can easily reduce manufacturing costs later in the product cycle. To avoid lengthy product development times for ceramic composites, funding agencies for materials research must commit resources to support design and development technologies early in the material life cycle. These technologies need not focus on designing the material, rather, the technology must focus on designing with the material, i. e., developing methods to design components fabricated from the new material. Thus a basic tenet that motivated this research effort is that a persistent need exists for improvements in the analysis of components fabricated from CMC material systems. From an aerospace design engineer's perspective the new generation of ceramic composites offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NOx emissions of gas turbine engines. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for 'graceful' rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction, these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Thus any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Establishing design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict this type of behavior in ceramic composites was the general goal of this project.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

Reliability Modeling Methodology for Independent Approaches on Parallel Runways Safety Analysis

This document is an adjunct to the final report An Integrated Safety Analysis Methodology for Emerging Air Transport Technologies. That report presents the results of our analysis of the problem of simultaneous but independent, approaches of two aircraft on parallel runways (independent approaches on parallel runways, or IAPR). This introductory chapter presents a brief overview and perspective of approaches and methodologies for performing safety analyses for complex systems. Ensuing chapter provide the technical details that underlie the approach that we have taken in performing the safety analysis for the IAPR concept.

Babcock, P.↗

An Investigation of Reliability Models for Ceramic Matrix Composites and their Implementation into Finite Element Codes

The development of modeling approaches for the failure analysis of ceramic-based material systems used in high temperature environments was the primary objective of this research effort. These materials have the potential to support many key engineering technologies related to the design of aeropropulsion systems. Monolithic ceramics exhibit a number of useful properties such as retention of strength at high temperatures, chemical inertness, and low density. However, the use of monolithic ceramics has been limited by their inherent brittleness and a large variation in strength. This behavior has motivated material scientists to reinforce the monolithic material with a ceramic fiber. The addition of a second ceramic phase with an optimized interface increases toughness and marginally increases strength. The primary purpose of the fiber is to arrest crack growth, not to increase strength. The material systems of interest in this research effort were laminated ceramic matrix composites, as well as two- and three- dimensional fabric reinforced ceramic composites. These emerging composite systems can compete with metals in many demanding applications. However, the ongoing metamorphosis of ceramic composite material systems, and the lack of standardized design data has in the past tended to minimize research efforts related to structural analysis. Many structural components fabricated from ceramic matrix composites (CMC) have been designed by "trial and error." The justification for this approach lies in the fact that during the initial developmental phases for a material system fabrication issues are paramount. Emphasis is placed on demonstrating feasibility rather than fully understanding the processes controlling mechanical behavior. This is understandable during periods of rapid improvements in material properties for any composite system. But to avoid the ad hoc approach, the analytical methods developed under this effort can be used to develop rational structural design protocols.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

FAA Development of Reliable Modeling Methodologies for Fan Blade Out Containment Analysis: Ballistic Impact Testing - Part 2

This report summarizes the ballistic impact testing that was conducted to provide validation data for the development of numerical models of blade out events in fabric containment systems. The ballistic impact response of two different fiber materials - Kevlar 49 (E.I. DuPont Nemours and Company) and Zylon AS (Toyobo Co., Ltd.) was studied by firing metal projectiles into dry woven fabric specimens using a gas gun. The shape, mass, orientation and velocity of the projectile were varied and recorded. In most cases the tests were designed such that the projectile would perforate the specimen, allowing measurement of the energy absorbed by the fabric. The results for both Zylon and Kevlar presented here represent a useful set of data for the purposes of establishing and validating numerical models for predicting the response of fabrics under conditions simulating those of a jet engine blade release situations. In addition some useful empirical observations were made regarding the effects of projectile orientation and the relative performance of the different materials.

Revilock, Duane M.↗

Accuracy of the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation for laser-plasma accelerator modeling

Reliable modeling of laser-plasma accelerators, where a short and intense laser pulse propagates in an underdense plasma over long distances, is a computationally challenging task. This is due to the great disparity among the scales involved in the modeling, ranging from the micrometer scale of the laser wavelength to, for instance, the meter scale of the laser-plasma interaction length for a multi-GeV-class laser-plasma accelerator. To reduce such imbalance, the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation may be used, where the plasma particle dynamics is analytically averaged over the laser frequency, and only spatiotemporal scales associated with the laser envelope are retained in the calculations, resulting in significant computational savings. Here, we characterize the accuracy and robustness of the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation for a range of laser parameters of interest for present and future laser-plasma accelerators, and we show that the error introduced by the averaging process is small in all relevant cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Problem Formulation for Optimal Array Modeling and Planning

In this paper we describe an optimal modeling and planning framework for the future large array of DSN antennas. This framework takes into account the array link performance models, reliability models, constrain models, and objective functions, and determines the optimal sub-array clusters configuration that will support the maximum number of concurrent missions based on mission link properties, antenna element reliabilities, mission requests, and array operation constraints. ..

modeling↗

Molecular Outflows in Local ULIRGs: Energetics from Multitransition OH Analysis

We report on the energetics of molecular outflows in 14 local ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) that show unambiguous outflow signatures (P Cygni profiles or high-velocity absorption wings) in the far-infrared lines of OH measured with the Herschel/PACS spectrometer. All sample galaxies are gas-rich mergers at various stages of the merging process. Detection of both ground-state (at 119 and 79 μm) and one or more radiatively excited (at 65 and 84 μm) lines allows us to model the nuclear gas (≲300 pc) and the more extended components using spherically symmetric radiative transfer models. Reliable models and the corresponding energetics are found in 12 of the 14 sources. The highest molecular outflow velocities are found in buried sources, in which slower but massive expansion of the nuclear gas is also observed. With the exception of a few outliers, the outflows have momentum fluxes of (2–5) × L {sub IR}/c and mechanical luminosities of (0.1–0.3)% of L {sub IR}. The moderate momentum boosts in these sources (≲3) suggest that the outflows are mostly momentum driven by the combined effects of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and nuclear starbursts, as a result of radiation pressure, winds, and supernova remnants. In some sources (∼20%), however, powerful (10{sup 10.5–11} L {sub ⊙}) AGN feedback and (partially) energy-conserving phases are required, with momentum boosts in the range of 3–20. These outflows appear to be stochastic, strong AGN feedback events that occur throughout the merging process. In a few sources, the outflow activity in the innermost regions has subsided in the past ∼1 Myr. While OH traces the molecular outflows at subkiloparsec scales, comparison of the masses traced by OH with those previously inferred from tracers of more extended outflowing gas suggests that most mass is loaded (with loading factors of M-dot /SFR=1--10) from the central galactic cores (a few × 100 pc), qualitatively consistent with an ongoing inside-out quenching of star formation. Outflow depletion timescales are <10{sup 8} yr, shorter than the gas consumption timescales by factors of 1.1–15, and are anticorrelated with the AGN luminosity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗

A Misperception in Reliability Growth Modelling

The Duane reliability growth model is n(t)/t = k t^-alpha (1) The reliability growth rate is alpha, the downward slope of n(t)/t versus t. It usually varies from 0.2 to 0.6. k is a constant. Crow used a 56-failure data set to illustrate reliability growth.1 A graphical Duane model fit to this data gives n(t)/t = 0.640 t^-0.283 (2) A problem in using the Duane-Crow reliability growth model is that it assumes that reliability growth continues and the failure rate decreases throughout the test period. It is more usual that reliability growth stops when the failure rated is low enough. Growth testing is often followed by testing with a low constant failure rate due to rare or uncorrectable failure modes. As more and more low constant rate acceptable failures accumulate after the period of reliability growth, the reliability growth time exponent alpha decreases toward zero. This occurs if constant rate failures are treated as occurring during the reliability growth period. It is more accurate to model a period of initial reliability growth followed by testing without repair to more accurately determine the final constant failure rate. This is done in the abcd model. n(t)/t = a t^-b + c from t = 0 to td (3) = c + d after td, where d = a td^-b (4) The term a t^-b describes the continuous reliability growth that continues out to time td and c is the constant uncorrected failure rate. The parameter d represents an additional constant failure rate due to correctable but uncorrected failure modes. After the reliability growth process is terminated, the failure rate n(t)/t = c + d.

Harry W Jones↗

Hierarchical modeling for reliability analysis using Markov models

Markov models represent an extremely attractive tool for the reliability analysis of many systems. However, Markov model state space grows exponentially with the number of components in a given system. Thus, for very large systems Markov modeling techniques alone become intractable in both memory and CPU time. Often a particular subsystem can be found within some larger system where the dependence of the larger system on the subsystem is of a particularly simple form. This simple dependence can be used to decompose such a system into one or more subsystems. A hierarchical technique is presented which can be used to evaluate these subsystems in such a way that their reliabilities can be combined to obtain the reliability for the full system. This hierarchical approach is unique in that it allows the subsystem model to pass multiple aggregate state information to the higher level model, allowing more general systems to be evaluated. Guidelines are developed to assist in the system decomposition. An appropriate method for determining subsystem reliability is also developed. This method gives rise to some interesting numerical issues. Numerical error due to roundoff and integration are discussed at length. Once a decomposition is chosen, the remaining analysis is straightforward but tedious. However, an approach is developed for simplifying the recombination of subsystem reliabilities. Finally, a real world system is used to illustrate the use of this technique in a more practical context.

Fagundo, Arturo↗