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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
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NASA NTRS1982

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Siegrist, K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliability growth models for NASA applications

The objective of any reliability growth study is prediction of reliability at some future instant. Another objective is statistical inference, estimation of reliability for reliability demonstration. A cause of concern for the development engineer and management is that reliability demands an excessive number of tests for reliability demonstration. For example, the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) program requirements call for .99 reliability at 90 pct. confidence for demonstration. This requires running 230 tests with zero failure if a classical binomial model is used. It is therefore also an objective to explore the reliability growth models for reliability demonstration and tracking and their applicability to NASA programs. A reliability growth model is an analytical tool used to monitor the reliability progress during the development program and to establish a test plan to demonstrate an acceptable system reliability.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗
NASA NTRS2024

The abcd Reliability Growth Model

This paper presents a modification of the well-known Duane-Crow reliability growth model. In the abcd reliability growth model, the initial period of exponential decline of the failure rate in the Duane-Crow model may be followed by a period of constant failure rate. Data often show that an exponential decline in failures is followed by a constant failure rate. If a growth model including only the initial period of exponential decline is applied to increasingly longer failure rate data sets, the data will include longer periods of constant failure rate, and the estimated reliability growth rate will decline from an initially high value down toward zero. Using the Duane-Crow model without extending it to include a possible period of constant failure rate may create the mistaken impression that the initial reliability growth continues forever, but at an ever decreasing rate.

Reliability growth↗
NASA NTRS2024

The abcd Reliability Growth Model

This paper presents a modification of the well-known Duane-Crow reliability growth model. In the abcd reliability growth model, the initial period of exponential decline of the failure rate in the Duane-Crow model may be followed by a period of constant failure rate. Data often show that an exponential decline in failures is followed by a constant failure rate. If a growth model including only the initial period of exponential decline is applied to increasingly longer failure rate data sets, the data will include longer periods of constant failure rate, and the estimated reliability growth rate will decline from an initially high value down toward zero. Using the Duane-Crow model without extending it to include a possible period of constant failure rate may create the mistaken impression that the initial reliability growth continues forever, but at an ever decreasing rate.

Reliability growth↗
NASA NTRS1992

An overview of reliability growth models and their potential use for NASA applications

An overview is provided of reliability growth literature over the past 25 years. This includes a thorough literature review of different areas of the application of reliability growth such as design, prediction, tracking/management, and demonstration. Various reliability growth models use different bases on how they characterize growth. Different models are discussed. Also, the use is addressed of reliability growth models to NASA applications. This includes the application of these models to the space shuttle main engine. For potential NASA applications, we classify growth models in two groups, which are characterized.

Taneja, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A nonparametric software-reliability growth model

The authors (1985) previously introduced a nonparametric model for software-reliability growth which is based on complete monotonicity of the failure rate. The authors extend the completely monotone software model by developing a method for providing long-range predictions of reliability growth, based on the model. They derive upper and lower bounds on extrapolation of the failure rate and the mean function. These are then used to obtain estimates for the future software failure rate and the mean future number of failures. Preliminary evaluation indicates that the method is competitive with parametric approaches, while being more robust.

Sofer, Ariela↗
NASA NTRS2003

System and Software Reliability (C103)

Within the last decade better reliability models (hardware. software, system) than those currently used have been theorized and developed but not implemented in practice. Previous research on software reliability has shown that while some existing software reliability models are practical, they are no accurate enough. New paradigms of development (e.g. OO) have appeared and associated reliability models have been proposed posed but not investigated. Hardware models have been extensively investigated but not integrated into a system framework. System reliability modeling is the weakest of the three. NASA engineers need better methods and tools to demonstrate that the products meet NASA requirements for reliability measurement. For the new models for the software component of the last decade, there is a great need to bring them into a form that they can be used on software intensive systems. The Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Systems (SMERFS'3) tool is an existing vehicle that may be used to incorporate these new modeling advances. Adapting some existing software reliability modeling changes to accommodate major changes in software development technology may also show substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. With some additional research, the next step is to identify and investigate system reliability. System reliability models could then be incorporated in a tool such as SMERFS'3. This tool with better models would greatly add value in assess in GSFC projects.

Wallace, Dolores↗
NASA NTRS1992

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Semi-Markov adjunction to the Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME)

The rule-based Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME) program was expanded in its ability to incorporate the effect of fault-handling processes into the construction of a reliability model. The fault-handling processes are modeled as semi-Markov events and CAME constructs and appropriate semi-Markov model. To solve the model, the program outputs it in a form which can be directly solved with the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) program. As a means of evaluating the alterations made to the CAME program, the program is used to model the reliability of portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA 2) reference configuration. The reliability predictions are compared with a previous analysis. The results bear out the feasibility of utilizing CAME to generate appropriate semi-Markov models to model fault-handling processes.

Rosch, Gene↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Keiller, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Hybrid automated reliability predictor integrated work station (HiREL)

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability (HiREL) workstation tool system marks another step toward the goal of producing a totally integrated computer aided design (CAD) workstation design capability. Since a reliability engineer must generally graphically represent a reliability model before he can solve it, the use of a graphical input description language increases productivity and decreases the incidence of error. The captured image displayed on a cathode ray tube (CRT) screen serves as a documented copy of the model and provides the data for automatic input to the HARP reliability model solver. The introduction of dependency gates to a fault tree notation allows the modeling of very large fault tolerant system models using a concise and visually recognizable and familiar graphical language. In addition to aiding in the validation of the reliability model, the concise graphical representation presents company management, regulatory agencies, and company customers a means of expressing a complex model that is readily understandable. The graphical postprocessor computer program HARPO (HARP Output) makes it possible for reliability engineers to quickly analyze huge amounts of reliability/availability data to observe trends due to exploratory design changes.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A simulation model for reliability evaluation of Space Station power systems

A detailed simulation model for the hybrid Space Station power system is presented which allows photovoltaic and solar dynamic power sources to be mixed in varying proportions. The model considers the dependence of reliability and storage characteristics during the sun and eclipse periods, and makes it possible to model the charging and discharging of the energy storage modules in a relatively accurate manner on a continuous basis.

Singh, C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

Reliable estimates of the components of the surface radiation budget are important in studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction, land-atmosphere interaction, ocean circulation and in the validation of radiation schemes used in climate models. The methods currently under consideration must necessarily make certain assumptions regarding both the presence of clouds and their vertical extent. Because of the uncertainties in assumed cloudiness, all these methods involve perhaps unacceptable uncertainties. Here, a theoretical framework that avoids the explicit computation of cloud fraction and the location of cloud base in estimating the surface longwave radiation is presented. Estimates of the global surface downward fluxes and the oceanic surface net upward fluxes were made for four months (April, July, October and January) in 1985 to 1986. These estimates are based on a relationship between cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface obtained from a general circulation model. The radiation code is the version used in the UCLA/GLA general circulation model (GCM). The longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as obtained from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements is used to compute the forcing at the surface by means of the GCM-derived relationship. This, along with clear-sky fluxes from the computations, yield maps of the downward longwave fluxes and net upward longwave fluxes at the surface. The calculated results are discussed and analyzed. The results are consistent with current meteorological knowledge and explainable on the basis of previous theoretical and observational works; therefore, it can be concluded that this method is applicable as one of the ways to obtain the surface longwave radiation fields from currently available satellite data.

HARSHVARDHAN↗
NASA NTRS1991

Software reliability report

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Unfortunately, the models appear to be unable to account for the random nature of the data. If the same code is debugged multiple times and one of the models is used to make predictions, intolerable variance is observed in the resulting reliability predictions. It is believed that data replication can remove this variance in lab type situations and that it is less than scientific to talk about validating a software reliability model without considering replication. It is also believed that data replication may prove to be cost effective in the real world, thus the research centered on verification of the need for replication and on methodologies for generating replicated data in a cost effective manner. The context of the debugging graph was pursued by simulation and experimentation. Simulation was done for the Basic model and the Log-Poisson model. Reasonable values of the parameters were assigned and used to generate simulated data which is then processed by the models in order to determine limitations on their accuracy. These experiments exploit the existing software and program specimens which are in AIR-LAB to measure the performance of reliability models.

Wilson, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1988

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Proposed reliability cost model

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

Delionback, L. M.↗