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Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Development of typical solar years and typical wind years for efficient assessment of renewable energy systems across the U.S.

Weather data plays a critical role in renewable energy analysis. Compared to using multiple Actual Meteorological Years, simulations using a single typical year require significantly fewer computational resources. Previous efforts to create typical weather datasets for renewable energy analysis either lack justified or optimized strategies for selecting and weighting different weather parameters or are limited to a few specific locations. Here, in this study, we developed a dataset comprising Typical Solar Years (TSYs) and Typical Wind Years (TWYs) for over 2000 locations across the U.S., based on data from NASA's POWER project. The strategies for creating TSYs and TWYs were optimized based on the simulated outputs of various PV systems and wind turbines in 16 representative cities. This dataset provides an efficient means for the rapid evaluation and optimization of renewable energy systems throughout the entire U.S. Additionally, the optimal strategies identified in this study can be directly applied to create near-optimal TSYs and TWYs for most locations worldwide. However, readers can also employ the optimization approach presented in this work to develop optimal strategies tailored for particular regions.

NASA POWER↗

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 1: Marine Renewable Energy and Ocean Energy Systems-Environmental

For many countries, marine renewable energy (MRE) is the most recent entry into their renewable energy portfolio. MRE involves the generation of energy from the movement of seawater including tides, waves, and persistent ocean currents, as well as from the gradients of temperature and salinity in the oceans. Some countries also include energy generation from the open waters of large rivers as part of MRE. Each MRE resource requires a different type of device to harvest that energy, placed in the appropriate portion and depth of the ocean or large river and secured to the seabed either by weight or by anchors. At full scale, these devices are large; Figure 1.1 puts the size of these devices in the context of other technologies and well-known landmarks for scale. The MRE devices generally represent the largest devices available.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100)

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phaseout of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040 as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). To meet these goals and support widespread end-use electrification, Puerto Rico is exploring renewable energy and innovative technologies for energy storage, distributed generation, distribution control, electric vehicles, and energy efficient and responsive loads that can be deployed in each of Puerto Rico's cities and communities. Launched in February 2022, a two-year study entitled Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy (PR100) will perform a comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's clean energy future. This fact sheet describes the five activities this robust and objective energy analysis entails.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future

This report is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The main insights from this study can also help inform policy development and investment decisions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources

Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Final Report

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a comprehensive analysis based on extensive stakeholder input of possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. PR100 was an integrated effort drawing on expertise and capabilities of the contributing national laboratories that explored possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy in the long term (by 2050), increase reliability and resilience in the immediate term (within the next few years), and work toward energy justice. The purpose of the study is to provide decision support and inform investment decisions for implementers of Puerto Rico's energy transition. See NREL/TP-6A20-88614 for the Spanish translation of this report.

100% renewable energy target↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 12. Synthesis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter reviews high-level findings, costs, benefits, and lessons learned from integrating this diverse suite of models and conducting a high-fidelity 100% renewable energy study.

100% Renewable↗

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Ocean-Based Renewable Energy Educational Opportunities to Achieve a Clean Energy Future

The United Nations has named 2021–2030 the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development with goals to 'strengthen the international cooperation needed to develop the scientific research and innovative technologies that can connect ocean science with the needs of society' (IOC 2019 The science we need for the ocean we want: the United Nations decade of ocean science for sustainable development (2021–2030) (Paris) p 24). Important actions that have been identified in support of sustainable development goals include capacity-building, training, and education. This includes educational opportunities for ocean-based renewable energy development in support of a healthy planet and ocean. Offshore wind is experiencing rapid development globally and, while the U.S. offshore wind market is still nascent, it is on the brink of exponential growth based on large cost reductions driven largely by European development and technology advances. Growth is also expected in wave and tidal energy with significant opportunities identified for various distributed markets through the Powering the Blue Economy™ initiative, with longer-term implications for expansion at the utility scale (LiVecchi et al 2019 Powering the blue economy; exploring opportunities for marine renewable energy in maritime markets p 207). In order to expedite progress and maximize benefits to the national, state, and local economies, these development actions will require a broad, diverse, and appropriately trained workforce. The ocean-based renewable energy workforce needs engineers and scientists to develop cost-effective technologies, as well as trade and maritime workers to eventually deploy the technologies at scale. In the United States, educational institutions, state governments, and private developers are taking action to understand job skills and capability requirements and to develop educational and training programs to meet offshore workforce needs; most are focused on offshore wind power, with gaining interest in marine energy. This article explores the workforce requirements of the growing ocean-based renewable energy industry and the current state of education and training programs to meet those requirements in order to identify gaps and make recommendations for further workforce development activities and initiatives. An international view needs to be adopted that incorporates the education and skill needs of early-stage marine energy technologies and evolving offshore wind technologies together with more market-ready offshore renewable energy markets. By accelerating educational development opportunities in ocean-based renewable energy, these growing blue economy markets can deliver significant economic and social benefits.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Engaging the Regulatory Community to Aid Environmental Consenting/Permitting Processes for Marine Renewable Energy

Regulators involved in consenting/permitting marine renewable energy (MRE) have faced multiple challenges due to relatively new, unfamiliar technologies and uncertainty surrounding potential environmental impacts. This has resulted in slow progress for the MRE industry, including long consenting timeframes and extensive and expensive monitoring requirements, which increase financial risk for investors. OES-Environmental has surveyed regulators internationally to understand their key knowledge gaps and perspectives to support the development of the MRE industry. From the results of these surveys a data transferability process and a risk retirement pathway have been developed to assess consenting and monitoring requirements in proportion to risk. A tool for discovering existing data sets by using an online matrix has been developed, along with training materials, regulatory guidance documents, and a strategic outreach plan to engage regulators and advisers. his engagement and the application of these products should lead to a better understanding of the environmental effects of marine energy, and more efficient consenting processes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector

The emergence of variable renewable energy and battery storage technologies have fundamentally transformed the electric power sector and generated demand for analysis to understand their roles in future energy systems. Although unique characteristics of these resources are well-recognized and require more sophisticated methodologies to capture effectively, guidance is limited on best practices and research gaps. This paper selectively reviews recent literature and draws upon our collective modeling experience to offer recommendations to analysts and consumers of model outputs on approaches for modeling variable renewable energy and storage in long-term electric sector models. We focus on regional- and national-scale models with technological, temporal, and spatial detail given their prevalence in planning and policy analysis, though insights are applicable in other settings. The review highlights how the research frontier has advanced in representing renewables and energy storage over the past decade; however, given the many considerations involved with appropriately capturing salient economic and operational characteristics of renewables, there is a gap between commonly used models and state-of-the-art methods. Model simplifications can materially impact policy analysis associated with power sector decarbonization and high renewables deployment, and improving model representations of variable renewables can enhance insights for policymakers and other stakeholders. This review can point the way for improved methods for established models and designs for emerging ones.

energy and environmental policy↗

Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates the Department of Energy’s (DOE) only dedicated marine laboratory at the PNNL-Sequim campus. PNNL is leading research in the blue economy and marine energy applications and building collaboration between DOE and multiple partners in the state of Washington and beyond. With Washington State support, the Integrated Renewable Energy System (IRES) demonstration testbed proposed here will advance research by developing and testing renewable energy production, management, and use for multiple marine applications (e.g., ocean observations, underwater vehicles, aquaculture). It will also advance energy resiliency for coastal communities by developing an integrated renewable energy test platform that will model how multiple renewable energy resources could power shoreline businesses or communities (Figure 1). The test bed will demonstrate how different renewable systems can be integrated to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to a net zero emissions site and provide lessons, controls, and protocols that will help to expand energy options for shoreline and maritime businesses. The integrated system is expected to serve as a test bed for shoreline power and ocean energy technologies for years to come.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Renewable Energy Guidance for Industry: Supplemental Document

This document is a supplement to the Better Plants’ Renewable Energy Guidance for Industry 2021. The purpose of this document is to further explain renewable energy technologies (i.e., solar energy, wind energy, biogas, waterpower, and geothermal) and to discuss briefly fuel cells and hybrid renewable energy systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗