Results for “risk matrix” — Page 8

NASA NTRS2026

xEMU Spacesuit Boot Lunar South Pole Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuit lunar boot was evaluated in the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) CITADEL thermal vacuum chamber at lunar South Pole conditions. The JPL CITADEL chamber provides a radiation environment and contact plate temperature of 48K, simulating the temperature of a lunar Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) at the South Pole of the Moon. The main objectives of the test series were: to evaluate the risk lunar PSRs pose to advanced spacesuit boots, validate the xEMU lunar boot thermal model, and develop a test methodology to evaluate lunar spacesuit boots. To simulate the thermal effects of a crewmember’s foot inside the boot, a thermal manikin foot was developed to inject heat into the spacesuit boot. Thermal data was collected through a variety of sensors including thermocouples, thermistors, heat flux sensors, and infrared cameras. A test matrix was developed to investigate the variables of foot contact force, simulated skin temperature, external contact plate temperature, and ventilation flowrate. The JPL CITADEL chamber includes a loadlock (airlock) that afforded the ability to simulate the transition of the boot from a thermally neutral IVA condition to a cold EVA condition within seconds. This paper will document the test design, test objectives, success criteria, test support equipment, spacesuit boot to chamber interfaces, and configuration of the test article. Additionally, this paper will document the high-level results of the testing. More detailed test results will be presented in a different paper.

TVAC↗

NASA NTRS2026

xEMU Spacesuit Boot Lunar South Pole Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuit lunar boot was evaluated in the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) CITADEL thermal vacuum chamber at lunar South Pole conditions. The JPL CITADEL chamber provides a radiation environment and contact plate temperature of 48K, simulating the temperature of a lunar Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) at the South Pole of the Moon. The main objectives of the test series are: to evaluate the risk lunar PSRs pose to advanced spacesuit boots, validate the xEMU lunar boot thermal model, and to develop a test methodology to evaluate lunar spacesuit boots. To simulate the thermal effects of a crewmember’s foot inside the boot, a thermal manikin foot was developed to inject heat into the spacesuit boot. Thermal data was collected through a variety of sensors including thermocouples, thermistors, heat flux sensors, and infrared cameras. A test matrix was developed to investigate the variables of foot contact force, simulated skin temperature, external contact plate temperature, and ventilation flowrate. The JPL CITADEL chamber includes a loadlock (airlock) that afforded the ability to simulate the transition of the boot from a thermally neutral IVA condition to a cold EVA condition within seconds. This paper will document the test design, test objectives, success criteria, test support equipment, spacesuit boot to chamber interfaces, and configuration of the test article. Additionally, this paper will document the high-level results of the testing. More detailed test results will be presented in a different paper.

Ben Swartout↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Bracing Development for the Moore 3 Diamond Turning Machine at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

To allow for on-site Potassium Dihydrogen Phosphate (KDP) crystal finishing capabilities, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) acquired the Moore 3 diamond turning machine. Equipment such as the Moore 3 is required by LLNL to have adequate seismic bracing before permanent installation to reduce the risk of personnel injury or machine damage during an earthquake. The purpose of this project was to design a bracket that can withstand seismic forces induced by the machine without hindering function. To develop a solution, background research—including stakeholder identification, stakeholder interviews, and a literature survey—was conducted. Based on LLNL site and stakeholder requirements, several approaches were developed for bracing the Moore 3. Ideations were evaluated based on a weighted decision matrix and a final design strategy was selected. This design was an L-shaped weldment that featured provisions for four HILTI concrete anchors, three triangular gussets, and a steel construction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2002

Launch Vehicle Sizing Benefits Utilizing Main Propulsion System Crossfeed and Project Status

To meet the goals for a next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV), a unique propulsion feed system concept was identified using crossfeed between the booster and orbiter stages that could reduce the Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) vehicle weight and Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) costs by approximately 25%, while increasing safety and reliability. The Main Propulsion System (MPS) crossfeed water demonstration test program addresses all activities required to reduce the risks for the MPS crossfeed system from a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 2 to 4 by the completion of testing and analysis by June 2003. During the initial period, that ended in March 2002, a subscale water flow test article was defined. Procurement of a subscale crossfeed check valve was initiated and the specifications for the various components were developed. The fluid transient and pressurization analytical models were developed separately and successfully integrated. The test matrix for the water flow test was developed to correlate the integrated model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the crossfeed check valve was developed to assess flow disturbances and internal flow dynamics. Based on the results, the passive crossfeed system concept was very feasible and offered a safe system to be used in an RLV architecture. A water flow test article was designed to accommodate a wide range of flows simulating a number of different types of propellant systems. During the follow-on period, the crossfeed system model will be further refined, the test article will be completed, the water flow test will be performed, and finally the crossfeed system model will be correlated with the test data. This validated computer model will be used to predict the full-scale vehicle crossfeed system performance.

Chandler, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2009

Mitigation of EMU Glove Cut Hazard by MMOD Impact Craters on Exposed ISS Handrails

Recent cut damages to crewmember extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) gloves during extravehicular activity (EVA) onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has been found to result from contact with sharp edges or pinch points rather than general wear or abrasion. One possible source of cut-hazards are protruding sharp edged crater lips from impact of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particles on external metallic handrails along EVA translation paths. During impact of MMOD particles at hypervelocity an evacuation flow develops behind the shock wave, resulting in the formation of crater lips that can protrude above the target surface. In this study, two methods were evaluated to limit EMU glove cut-hazards due to MMOD impact craters. In the first phase, four flexible overwrap configurations are evaluated: a felt-reusable surface insulation (FRSI), polyurethane polyether foam with beta-cloth cover, double-layer polyurethane polyether foam with beta-cloth cover, and multi-layer beta-cloth with intermediate Dacron netting spacers. These overwraps are suitable for retrofitting ground equipment that has yet to be flown, and are not intended to protect the handrail from impact of MMOD particles, rather to act as a spacer between hazardous impact profiles and crewmember gloves. At the impact conditions considered, all four overwrap configurations evaluated were effective in limiting contact between EMU gloves and impact crater profiles. The multi-layer beta-cloth configuration was the most effective in reducing the height of potentially hazardous profiles in handrail-representative targets. In the second phase of the study, four material alternatives to current aluminum and stainless steel alloys were evaluated: a metal matrix composite, carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP), fiberglass, and a fiber metal laminate. Alternative material handrails are intended to prevent the formation of hazardous damage profiles during MMOD impact and are suitable for flight hardware yet to be constructed. Of the four materials evaluated, only the fiberglass formed a less hazardous damage profile than the baseline metallic target. Although the CFRP laminate did not form any noticeable crater lip, brittle protruding fibers are considered a puncture risk. In parallel with EMU glove redesign efforts, modifications to metallic ISS handrails such as those evaluated in this study provide the means to significantly reduce cut-hazards from MMOD impact craters.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Active Matrix OLED Test Report

This report focuses on the limited environmental testing of the AMOLED display performed as an engineering evaluation by The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC)-specifically. EMI. Thermal Vac, and radiation tests. The AMOLED display is an active-matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) technology. The testing provided an initial understanding of the technology and its suitability for space applications. Relative to light emitting diode (LED) displays or liquid crystal displays (LCDs), AMOLED displays provide a superior viewing experience even though they are much lighter and smaller, produce higher contrast ratio and richer colors, and require less power to operate than LCDs. However, AMOLED technology has not been demonstrated in a space environment. Therefore, some risks with the technology must be addressed before they can be seriously considered for human spaceflight. The environmental tests provided preliminary performance data on the ability of the display technology to handle some of the simulated induced space/spacecraft environments that an AMOLED display will see during a spacecraft certification test program. This engineering evaluation is part of a Space Act Agreement (SM) between The NASA/JSC and Honeywell International (HI) as a collaborative effort to evaluate the potential use of AMOLED technology for future human spaceflight missions- both government-led and commercial. Under this SM, HI is responsible for doing optical performance evaluation, as well as temperature and touch screen studies. The NASA/JSC is responsible for performing environmental testing comprised of EMI, Thermal Vac, and radiation tests. Additionally, as part of the testing, limited optical data was acquired to assess performance as the display was subjected to the induced environments. The NASA will benefit from this engineering evaluation by understanding AMOLED suitability for future use in space as well as becoming a smarter buyer (or developer) of the technology. HI benefits from the environmental testing results by understanding its performance limitations/shortcomings to improve subsequent generations of AMOLED technology. Note that the AMOLED used in this test was not deSigned for the space environment but rather for commercial/industrial terrestrial applications.

Salazar, George↗

NASA NTRS2013

Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode (AMOLED) Environmental Test Report

This report focuses on the limited environmental testing of the AMOLED display performed as an engineering evaluation by The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC)-specifically. EMI. Thermal Vac, and radiation tests. The AMOLED display is an active-matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) technology. The testing provided an initial understanding of the technology and its suitability for space applications. Relative to light emitting diode (LED) displays or liquid crystal displays (LCDs), AMOLED displays provide a superior viewing experience even though they are much lighter and smaller, produce higher contrast ratio and richer colors, and require less power to operate than LCDs. However, AMOLED technology has not been demonstrated in a space environment. Therefore, some risks with the technology must be addressed before they can be seriously considered for human spaceflight. The environmental tests provided preliminary performance data on the ability of the display technology to handle some of the simulated induced space/spacecraft environments that an AMOLED display will see during a spacecraft certification test program. This engineering evaluation is part of a Space Act Agreement (SM) between The NASA/JSC and Honeywell International (HI) as a collaborative effort to evaluate the potential use of AMOLED technology for future human spaceflight missions- both government-led and commercial. Under this SM, HI is responsible for doing optical performance evaluation, as well as temperature and touch screen studies. The NASA/JSC is responsible for performing environmental testing comprised of EMI, Thermal Vac, and radiation tests. Additionally, as part of the testing, limited optical data was acquired to assess performance as the display was subjected to the induced environments. The NASA will benefit from this engineering evaluation by understanding AMOLED suitability for future use in space as well as becoming a smarter buyer (or developer) of the technology. HI benefits from the environmental testing results by understanding its performance limitations/shortcomings to improve subsequent generations of AMOLED technology. Note that the AMOLED used in this test was not deSigned for the space environment but rather for commercial/industrial terrestrial applications.

Salazar, George A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Precision Measurement of Black Hole Binary Dynamics: Analyzing the LISA Data Stream

One of the richest potential sources of insight into fundamental physics that LISA will be capable of observing is the inspiral of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). However, the data analysis challenge presented by the LISA data stream is quite unlike the situation for present day gravitational wave detectors. In order to make the precision measurements necessary to achieve LISA's science goals, the BHB signal must be distinguished from a data stream that not only contains instrumental noise, but potentially thousands of other signals as well, so that the "background" we wish to separate out to focus on the BHB signal is likely to be highly nonstationary and nongaussian, as well as being of scientific interest in its own right. In addition, whereas the theoretical templates that we calculate in order to ultimately estimate the parameters can afford to be somewhat inaccurate and still be effective for present day and near future detectors, this is not the case for LISA, and extremely high fidelity of the theoretical templates for high signal-to-noise signals will be required to prevent theoretical errors from dominating the parameter estimates. NVe, will describe efforts in the community of LISA data analysts to address the challenges regarding the specific issue of BHB signals. These efforts include using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the freedom to model the BHB and the other signals present in the data stream simultaneously, rather than trying to remove other signals and risk biasing the remaining data. The Mock LISA Data Challenge is a community of LISA scientists who generate rounds of simulated LISA noise with increasingly difficult signal content, and invite the LISA data analysis community to exercise their methods, or develop new methods, in an attempt to extract the parameters for the signals embedded in the mock data. In addition to practical approaches such ,is this to assess the level of parameter accuracy, one can apply the Fisher matrix formalism to assess both the statistical errors from noise and the theoretical errors

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improved Fabrication of Ceramic Matrix Composite/Foam Core Integrated Structures

The use of hybridized carbon/silicon carbide (C/SiC) fabric to reinforce ceramic matrix composite face sheets and the integration of such face sheets with a foam core creates a sandwich structure capable of withstanding high-heatflux environments (150 W/cm2) in which the core provides a temperature drop of 1,000 C between the surface and the back face without cracking or delamination of the structure. The composite face sheet exhibits a bilinear response, which results from the SiC matrix not being cracked on fabrication. In addition, the structure exhibits damage tolerance under impact with projectiles, showing no penetration to the back face sheet. These attributes make the composite ideal for leading edge structures and control surfaces in aerospace vehicles, as well as for acreage thermal protection systems and in high-temperature, lightweight stiffened structures. By tailoring the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of a carbon fiber containing ceramic matrix composite (CMC) face sheet to match that of a ceramic foam core, the face sheet and the core can be integrally fabricated without any delamination. Carbon and SiC are woven together in the reinforcing fabric. Integral densification of the CMC and the foam core is accomplished with chemical vapor deposition, eliminating the need for bond-line adhesive. This means there is no need to separately fabricate the core and the face sheet, or to bond the two elements together, risking edge delamination during use. Fibers of two or more types are woven together on a loom. The carbon and ceramic fibers are pulled into the same pick location during the weaving process. Tow spacing may be varied to accommodate the increased volume of the combined fiber tows while maintaining a target fiber volume fraction in the composite. Foam pore size, strut thickness, and ratio of face sheet to core thickness can be used to tailor thermal and mechanical properties. The anticipated CTE for the hybridized composite is managed by the choice of constituents, varying fiber tow sizes and constituent part ratios. This structural concept provides high strength and stiffness at low density 1.06 g/cm3 in panels tested. Varieties of face sheet constructions are possible, including variations in fiber type and weave geometry. The integrated structures possible with this composite could eliminate the need for non-load-bearing thermal protection systems on top of a structural component. The back sheet can readily be integrated to substructures through the incorporation of ribs. This would eliminate weight and cost for aerospace missions.

Hurwitz, Frances I.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Inert Welding/Brazing Gas Filters and Dryers

The use of hybridized carbon/silicon carbide (C/SiC) fabric to reinforce ceramic matrix composite face sheets and the integration of such face sheets with a foam core creates a sandwich structure capable of withstanding high-heat-flux environments (150 W/sq cm) in which the core provides a temperature drop of 1,000 C between the surface and the back face without cracking or delamination of the structure. The composite face sheet exhibits a bilinear response, which results from the SiC matrix not being cracked on fabrication. In addition, the structure exhibits damage tolerance under impact with projectiles, showing no penetration to the back face sheet. These attributes make the composite ideal for leading-edge structures and control surfaces in aerospace vehicles, as well as for acreage thermal protection systems and in high-temperature, lightweight stiffened structures. By tailoring the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of a carbon fiber containing ceramic matrix composite (CMC) face sheet to match that of a ceramic foam core, the face sheet and the core can be integrally fabricated without any delamination. Carbon and SiC are woven together in the reinforcing fabric. Integral densification of the CMC and the foam core is accomplished with chemical vapor deposition, eliminating the need for bond-line adhesive. This means there is no need to separately fabricate the core and the face sheet, or to bond the two elements together, risking edge delamination during use. Fibers of two or more types are woven together on a loom. The carbon and ceramic fibers are pulled into the same "pick" location during the weaving process. Tow spacing may be varied to accommodate the increased volume of the combined fiber tows while maintaining a target fiber volume fraction in the composite. Foam pore size, strut thickness, and ratio of face sheet to core thickness can be used to tailor thermal and mechanical properties. The anticipated CTE for the hybridized composite is managed by the choice of constituents, varying fiber tow sizes and constituent part ratios. This structural concept provides high strength and stiffness at low density 1.06 g/cu cm in panels tested. Varieties of face sheet constructions are possible, including variations in fiber type and weave geometry. The integrated structures possible with this composite could eliminate the need for non-load-bearing thermal protection systems on top of a structural component. The back sheet can readily be integrated to substructures through the incorporation of ribs. This would eliminate weight and cost for aerospace missions.

Goudy, Jerry↗

NASA NTRS2009

3D Visualization of Monte-Carlo Simulation's of HZE Track Structure and Initial Chemical Species

Heavy ions biophysics is important for space radiation risk assessment [1] and hadron-therapy [2]. The characteristic of heavy ions tracks include a very high energy deposition region close to the track (<20 nm) denoted as the track core, and an outer penumbra region consisting of individual secondary electrons (6-rays). A still open question is the radiobiological effects of 6- rays relative to the track core. Of importance is the induction of double-strand breaks (DSB) [3] and oxidative damage to the biomolecules and the tissue matrix, considered the most important lesions for acute and long term effects of radiation. In this work, we have simulated a 56Fe26+ ion track of 1 GeV/amu with our Monte-Carlo code RITRACKS [4]. The simulation results have been used to calculate the energy depiction and initial chemical species in a "voxelized" space, which is then visualized in 3D. Several voxels with dose >1000 Gy are found in the penumbra, some located ~0.1 mm from the track core. In computational models, the DSB induction probability is calculated with radial dose [6], which may not take into account the higher RBE of electron track ends for DSB induction. Therefore, these simulations should help improve models of DSB induction and our understanding of heavy ions biophysics.

Plante, Ianik↗

NASA NTRS2008

RT-MATRIX: Measuring Total Organic Carbon by Photocatalytic Oxidation of Volatile Organic Compounds

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) inevitably accumulate in enclosed habitats such as the International Space Station and the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) as a result of human metabolism, material off-gassing, and leaking equipment. Some VOCs can negatively affect the quality of the crew's life, health, and performance; and consequently, the success of the mission. Air quality must be closely monitored to ensure a safe living and working environment. Currently, there is no reliable air quality monitoring system that meets NASA's stringent requirements for power, mass, volume, or performance. The ultimate objective of the project -- the development of a Real-Time, Miniaturized, Autonomous Total Risk Indicator System (RT.MATRIX).is to provide a portable, dual-function sensing system that simultaneously determines total organic carbon (TOC) and individual contaminants in air streams.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Lightweight Ablative and Ceramic Thermal Protection System Materials for NASA Exploration Systems Vehicles

As a collaborative effort among NASA Centers, the "Lightweight Nonmetallic Thermal Protection Materials Technology" Project was set up to assist mission/vehicle design trade studies, to support risk reduction in thermal protection system (TPS) material selections, to facilitate vehicle mass optimization, and to aid development of human-rated TPS qualification and certification plans. Missions performing aerocapture, aerobraking, or direct aeroentry rely on advanced heatshields that allow reductions in spacecraft mass by minimizing propellant requirements. Information will be presented on candidate materials for such reentry approaches and on screening tests conducted (material property and space environmental effects tests) to evaluate viable candidates. Seventeen materials, in three classes (ablatives, tiles, and ceramic matrix composites), were studied. In additional to physical, mechanical, and thermal property tests, high heat flux laser tests and simulated-reentry oxidation tests were performed. Space environmental effects testing, which included exposures to electrons, atomic oxygen, and hypervelocity impacts, was also conducted.

Valentine, Peter G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-Sensing Composites via an Embedded 3D-Printed PVDF-MoS 2 Nanosensor for Structural Health Monitoring

Carbon fiber (CF)-reinforced epoxy composites are widely used in vehicle applications, where early damage detection is crucial for reliability and safety. To address this need, we developed a self-sensing epoxy/CF composite by embedding a PVDF-MoS 2 nanosensor via an embedded 3D printing method. By harnessing the intrinsic curing kinetics of epoxy, we tailored its rheological properties to optimize the embedded printing process, enabling precise and reliable support for sensor filaments without compromising the composite’s structural and functional integrity. Through comprehensive rheological and kinetic analysis, we established a quantitative relationship among curing temperature, conversion rate, and resulting yield modulus─defining a narrow processing window essential for successful sensor integration. Specifically, we identified that an epoxy yield modulus range of 180–294 Pa and a conversion rate below 10% are critical to support the PVDF-MoS 2 filament architecture. Here, this embedded 3D printing method produces complex and multimaterial PVDF-MoS 2 sensors within an epoxy matrix with minimal deformation and reduced postprocessing, which is scalable and adaptable for industrial applications. Under cyclic loading, the embedded sensors exhibited stable signals under constant loads and increased voltage signals in response to crack formation (17–35% higher) and catastrophic failure (1 order of magnitude higher), effectively capturing structural changes in real time. This study demonstrates the potential of PVDF-MoS 2 nanocomposite sensor materials for real-time structural health monitoring in epoxy–CF composite systems, enabling early detection of defects and stress anomalies, significantly reducing the risk of unexpected failures, and enhancing structural reliability.

PVDF-MoS2 sensor↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mars Flyer Rocket Propulsion Risk Assessment Kaiser Marquardt Testing

This report describes the investigation of a 10-N, bipropellant thruster, operating at -40 C, with monomethylhydrazine (MMH) and 25% nitric oxide in nitrogen tetroxide (MON-25). The thruster testing was conducted as part of a risk reduction activity for the Mars Flyer, a proposed mission to fly a miniature airplane in the Martian atmosphere. Testing was conducted using an existing thruster, designed for MMH and MON-3 propellants. The nitric oxide content of MON-3 was increased to 25%, to lower its freezing point to -55 C. The thruster was conditioned, along with the propellants, to temperature prior to hot firing. Thruster operating parameters included oxidizer-to-fuel mixture ratios of 1.6 to 2.7 and inlet pressure ranging from 689 to 2070 kPa. The test matrix consisted of many 10-second firings and several 60-, 300-, 600-, and 1200-second firings, as well as pulse testing. The thruster successfully accumulated nearly 10,000 seconds of operation without failure, at temperatures ranging from -40 C to 22 C. At nominal inlet pressures, the ignition delay was comparable to MMH/MON-3 operation. The optimal performance for the 8.9-N thruster was determined to be at a mixture ratio of 1.93 with an average specific impulse of 298 sec.

Marquardt, Kaiser↗

NASA NTRS2020

Model Design and Pre-Test CFD Analysis for a Supersonic Retropropulsion Wind Tunnel Test

Future Mars human lander missions will require using powered descent beginning at supersonic conditions, something which has never been done before at Mars. Significant aerosciences challenges exist due to interactions between the retrorocket exhaust plumes and the freestream flow that alter the aerodynamic behavior of the powered descent vehicle. Historically, wind tunnel tests have been used to study supersonic retropropulsion with inert gas exhaust simulants. Also, SpaceX has successfully decelerated the Falcon 9 first stage numerous times by using powered flight at supersonic conditions. On the computational side, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes flowfield simulations are regularly completed at full-scale conditions. However, the available ground and flight data do not provide a basis for calibrating the computational uncertainties for aerodynamic interference forces and moments on proposed Mars descent vehicles, either because of insufficient data or dissimilar vehicles geometries and/or conditions. Thus, additional ground testing is needed to continue addressing the aerosciences risks for large-scale human Mars landers. To that end, a retropropulsion wind tunnel test will be conducted in the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel in 2020. The test is designed to improve upon similar past tests, both in terms of model design and measured data. The test campaign will use subscale model geometries derived from the two current NASA powered descent reference vehicles: a blunt low lift-to-drag vehicle and a more slender geometry. This paper covers the reference vehicles, test objectives, model design, scaling parameters, test matrix, and computational analysis to date.

Karl T Edquist↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗