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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Study of Thermal Management and Enhancement of Adsorption-Based Onboard Hydrogen Storage System

Abstract Although hydrogen has one of the highest specific energies, its energy density in terms of volume is very poor compared to liquid fuels. Thus, to achieve attractive energy density for hydrogen, either high-pressure compression or a storage method is needed. For onboard (vehicles) hydrogen storage, up to 700 bars are needed for commercial fuel cell vehicles. This creates extreme requirements for material strength and thus safety concerns. A new metal-organic framework 5 (MOF-5) was selected as the adsorbent for H2 storage, as it provides promising storage capacity and is commercially available. Under the same H2 storage capacity and tank volume, the adsorption system is expected several folds reduction in pressure. Under the current study, a unique thermal management design using Modular Adsorbing Tank Insert (MATI) is paired with conduction-enhanced compressed MOF-5 beds. Compared to bare beds without conduction enhancement, all beds with conduction enhancement using either aluminum pins or expanded natural graphite (ENG) have shown various levels of improvement on bed thermal response, which can potentially help expedite system charge and discharge cycle times for real applications.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Assessment of Off-Gas System Technologies for Potential Use in Molten Salt Reactors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are a class of Generation IV advanced reactor technologies aimed to enhance and improve the safety, fuel utilization and cost-effectiveness of nuclear power generation. MSR concepts are based on using a molten salt mixture as a primary nuclear reactor coolant, while the fuel can be either directly dissolved in the coolant (i.e., fluid-fueled) or can be in a separate solid form (i.e., salt-cooled solid-fueled). MSRs can be operated in either thermal or fast neutron spectra, as simple fissile convertors, or breeder reactors (e.g., utilizing both fissile and fertile fuels), as well as accelerator-driven sub-critical reactors or transuranic element burners. Operation of MSRs will necessitate management and treatment of the off-gas streams released to the headspace of the reactor where, in some designs, a cover gas can be circulated to remove certain fission products and maintain an inert atmosphere. An inert MSR cover gas swept over or sparged into the salt will confine radionuclides emerging from the free surface, including radioactive noble and non-noble gases, aerosols, and volatile species. The elements and compounds of these species will have a wide range of thermochemical and physical properties, some of which will decay to different products in the off-gas stream. Therefore, system components used to manage and treat MSR off-gas streams will need to be robust under dynamic reactor and chemistry conditions to support adequate reactor performance by managing the composition and species in the salt coolant and cover gas space. Off-gas system components would perform as a radionuclide boundary to the reactor vessel and a primary means for preventing radionuclide release; therefore, they are of high safety significance for MSR operations. This report reviews various technologies and materials for potential implementation in the design of an MSR off-gas system per a general conceptual framework. The reviewed technologies operate based on scrubbing, capture, delay, or separation of species in the off-gas stream. These include molten hydroxide scrubbers, solid sorbents, delay off-gas systems, particle traps, and cryogenic distillation. Since aspects of an off-gas system will be design-specific, the approach is to provide general discussions on attributes of these technologies and materials, including target off-gas stream species, operational parameters and conditions of importance to decontamination factors, implementation maturity, system component monitoring, potential off-normal conditions and considerations for waste products. The information aims to support the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in their safety evaluations for MSR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY2022 Filter Test for TRU Waste Drum Prototype Unit

Continuing last year’s (fiscal year 2021) work, a prototype instrument and an NPI-6 Integrated Work Document (IWD) were developed to assess the functionality of filters on transuranic waste containers (commonly called 55 Gallon ring-top drums) without requiring the removal of the drum lid. The purpose of this work is to determine the air flow and pressure characteristics associated with filter clogging, filter pressure drop at a fixed flow rate, and leakage around the lid seal. The FY22 objectives included: (A) Development of prototype device, (B) Drafting an IWD document, (C) Defining a filter clogging parameter, (D) Assessing filter damage due to over-pressure events, and (E) A path forward to obtain approval of the system safety filters in compliance with P101-16 Industrial Ventilation – non HVACR (LANL 2022).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

LAMP Technical Readiness Evaluation Report (Rev. 1)

An internal preliminary evaluation of Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) for the LANSCE Modernization Project (LAMP) was completed. Corresponding Technical Readiness Levels (TRLs) were also determined for all subsystems using the criteria of DOE G 413.3-4A, Technical Readiness Assessment Guide. The scope of the evaluation was limited to the project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements as defined for the RFQ Injector and Drift Tube Linac (DTL) systems only. Integration of Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) and Safety Systems was not considered, although specific technologies as related to the RFQ and DTL systems were included. Other elements of the project such as Shielding, System Design, Technical Management, and additional facility integration needed to enable off-line testing and pre-installation commissioning were also not evaluated. Each technical subsystem element was evaluated for technical readiness, however, not all were found to meet the criteria for a CTE. Only two subsystem elements were determined to meet the CTE criteria. Their associated TRLs are summarized in the table below. These subsystem elements of the project have the lowest technical readiness due to either being new, novel or modified, requiring additional R&D before being capable of meeting the project Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) and subsystem requirements, or present technology exists but has not yet been demonstrated in a relevant environment. All other subsystems were determined to have a TRL of 8, indicating that actual operating systems exist having similar performance requirements as needed for LAMP. Details of the technical readiness evaluation for each subsystem is given in the following sections of this report.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Special Nuclear Material Hold-up Measurement

Facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) generally have a variety of equipment, shielding, and nearby radiation sources, which can pose challenges when performing nondestructive analysis (NDA) within the facility, as shown in Figure 1. In this figure, the left image features two individuals performing a holdup measurement of a large duct at a posting, utilizing a detector probe attached to a yardstick to reduce some aspect of the measurement uncertainty. Note that the distance to the holdup within the pipe from the posting cannot be accounted for. The right image similarly features several individuals guiding a holdup measurement of a ducting pipe several meters overhead, by attaching a detector probe to a long handle and lining that up with a posting on the outside of the pipe. SNM processing begets SNM holdup, and this difficulty with accurate NDA can result in unaccounted accumulation of SNM holdup within a process or area. Normal SNM processing operations can accumulate holdup within filters, pumps, pipes, ducts, other equipment, and facility support systems, as demonstrated by Figure 2. It is important for deactivation and decommissioning (D&D) gloveboxes and their ancillary equipment, material accountability, criticality safety, facility operations, waste management, radiation safety, and security to accurately characterize the location, composition, and quantity of this holdup to minimize these associated risks and potential diversion pathways. Current NDA techniques for assay of holdup are expensive, time consuming, and have high uncertainty.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LAMP Technical Readiness Evaluation Report

An internal preliminary evaluation of Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) for the LANSCE Modernization Project (LAMP) was completed in 2023. This included determining corresponding Technical Readiness Levels (TRLs) for all subsystems using the criteria of DOE G 413.3-4A, Technical Readiness Assessment Guide. This revised report includes a summary of the recent design modifications required to meet the project Key Performance Requirements (KPPs), some of which may reduce technical risk to the project. These recent design modifications include: • Further optimization of the low-energy and medium-energy beam transport regions (LEBT and MEBT, respectively), including relocation of various functional elements (ie choppers, kickers, and bunchers). • An additional H - ion source to separate ion-source function based on beam delivery requirements. • A high-repetition-rate pulsed kicker magnet to select/merge the two H ion beams into a common low-energy beam transport. • Modification and further optimization to a more conventional RFQ design. Performance of the RFQ has been optimized to deliver the required three types of beams while meeting the project KPPs. • The addition of a second chopper in the medium-energy beam transport (MEBT) line to reduce the required pulser voltages. The scope of the evaluation was limited to the project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements as defined for the RFQ Injector and Drift Tube Linac (DTL) systems only. Integration of Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) and Safety Systems was not considered, although specific technologies as related to the RFQ and DTL systems were included. Other elements of the project such as Shielding, System Design, Technical Management, and additional facility integration needed to enable off-line testing and pre-installation commissioning were also not evaluated. Each technical subsystem element was evaluated for technical readiness, however, not all were found to meet the criteria for a CTE. Three subsystem elements were determined to meet the CTE criteria. Their associated TRLs are summarized in the table below. These subsystem elements of the project have the lowest technical readiness due to either being new, novel or modified, requiring additional R&D before being capable of meeting the project Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) and subsystem requirements, or present technology exists but has not yet been demonstrated in a relevant environment. All other subsystems were determined to have a TRL of 8, indicating that actual operating systems exist having similar performance requirements as needed for LAMP. Details of the technical readiness evaluation for each subsystem is given in the following sections of this report.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2020

Human-System Interface Design Review Guidelines

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff reviews the human factors engineering (HFE) aspects of nuclear power plants in accordance with the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR Edition). The Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (NUREG-0711, Revision 3, issued November 2012) contains detailed design review procedures. As part of the review process, the interfaces between plant personnel and the plant's systems and components are evaluated for conformance with HFE guidelines. This document, Human-System Interface Design Review Guidelines (NUREG-0700, Revision 3), provides the guidelines necessary to perform this evaluation. The review guidelines address the physical and functional characteristics of human-system interfaces (HSIs). Because these guidelines only address the HFE aspects of design and not other related considerations, such as instrumentation and control and structural design, they are referred to as HFE guidelines. In addition to the review of actual HSIs, the NRC staff can use the NUREG-0700 guidelines to evaluate a design-specific HFE guidelines document or style guide. The HFE guidelines are organized into four basic parts, which are divided into sections. Part I contains guidelines for the basic HSI elements: information displays, user-interface interaction and management, and analog displays and controls. These elements are used as building blocks to develop HSI systems to serve specific functions. Part II contains the guidelines for reviewing the following HSI systems: alarm system, safety parameter display system, group-view display system, soft control system, computer-based procedure system, automation system, and communication system. Part III provides guidelines for the review of workstations and workplaces. Part IV provides guidelines for the review of HSI support (i.e., maintainability of digital systems and degraded HSI and instrumentation and control conditions).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Cloud-based Applications for Enabling a Scalable Riskinformed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

The current light-water reactor fleet uses time-based maintenance strategies to achieve high-capacity factors. But to make nuclear more competitive in the energy market, these reactors could utilize emerging artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing technologies to achieve a cost-effective, predictive-maintenance strategy. This paper presents discussion and results on the application of cloud computing in the nuclear industry. The technical viability of cloud computing was analyzed using data from a boiling-water reactor’s safety relief valve. The models were hosted on three different systems: a local personal computer, Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer system, and Microsoft Azure. The data were loaded and processed, and two types of models were trained in an A/B fashion. Based on the speed at which these actions were completed, it was determined that cloud computing affords adequate computing resources. Additionally, the computing power can scale with the demanded load. To enable cloud computing in the existing fleet, additional sensors, networks, and other requirements must be implemented to ensure a smooth transition from current maintenance strategies. However, the benefit is that the plants no longer need to manage their own servers, software, cybersecurity, and information technology support staff for in-house data analytics purpose. Many of these features can be offloaded to the cloud provider for a potential cost savings. Demonstrating how AI can improve the maintenance and operation of non-safety-related systems seems the likely path forward for implementing AI and cloud computing resources inside nuclear power plants.

azure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smart Mobility in the Cloud: Enabling Real-Time Situational Awareness and Cyber-Physical Control Through a Digital Twin for Traffic

This article presents the design, implementation, and use cases of the Chattanooga Digital Twin (CTwin) towards the vision for next-generation smart city applications for urban mobility management. CTwin is an end-to-end web-based platform that incorporates various aspects of the decision-making process for optimizing urban transportation systems in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to reduce traffic congestion, incidents, and vehicle fuel consumption. The platform serves as a cyberinfrastructure to collect and integrate multi-domain urban mobility data from various online repositories and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, covering multiple urban aspects (e.g., traffic, natural hazards, weather, and safety) that are relevant to urban mobility management. The platform enables advanced capabilities for: (a) real-time situational awareness on traffic and infrastructure conditions on highways and urban roads, (b) cyber-physical control for optimizing traffic signal timing, and (c) interactive visual analytics on big urban mobility data and various metrics for traffic prediction and transportation performance evaluation. The platform is designed using a multi-level componentization paradigm and is implemented using modular and adaptive architecture, rendering it as a generalizable and extendable prototype for other urban management applications. We present several use cases to demonstrate CTwin's core capabilities for supporting decision-making in smart urban mobility management.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of copper thiolate organometallic compound as thermal sensitive coating for energy storage system safety

Safety and reliability are primary concerns for the deployment of lithium-ion batteries, especially in electric vehicles (EV) and larger-scale energy storage systems (ESS). Current technology in battery management systems (BMS) includes cell voltage monitoring and positioning temperature sensors in selected locations. For a system with hundreds to thousands of individual batteries, single-point temperature monitoring is inadequate to detect hot spots and cell overheating, which could lead to thermal runaway. Here, we have developed a temperature-sensitive copper-thiol compound that can be directly coated onto battery pouch foils to enable early detection of thermal runaway. Upon reaching specific temperatures, this compound releases a sulfur-containing detectable gas, which can be identified using chemically specific gas sensors to trigger an early warning signal. Such a signal propagate through air offers broad signal coverage and enables a more comprehensive approach to large-area temperature monitoring. The Cu-ethanethiol coating is designed to release volatile gases when the substrate surface temperature exceeds 70 °C, with continuous outgassing as the temperature increases. The compound is composed of Cu, S, Cl, hydrocarbons and trace amounts of oxygen. Upon heating, the oxidation state of Cu(I) transitions to Cu (II), accompanied by gas release. Thermogravimetric analysis coupled with mass spectrometry correlated well with the onset of gas release temperature and emission of sulfur-containing volatile gases. Additionally, an acrylic overcoat is applied to enhance the adhesion of the thermally sensitive compound film to the battery pouch foil. This coating is expected to offer an additional safety layer for ESS, alerting possible thermal runaway events before a failure occurs, thereby allowing sufficient time to implement a mitigation plan.

Early warning systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Health Physics Research Reactor Criticality Accident Alarm System Benchmark Overview

From the countless critical experiments performed in the world during the past century, high-quality integral benchmarks experiments have been collected and gathered into the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook), managed by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Working Group. This information preservation and dissemination effort is crucial for reactor licensing as well as criticality and radiation transport modeling validation. This summary reports on the status of a tentative benchmark addition to the ICSBEP Handbook. The proposed benchmark arises from legacy operation data of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR). The HPRR was a small, unmoderated, unshielded fast burst reactor that was used for research in health physics and radiobiology as well as teaching and training. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the available HPRR operation data and characteristics, different possibilities for use of the valuable results were studied. A critical experiment benchmark evaluation was performed, analyzing data coming from sub-critical and critical operation of the HPRR during operator training, steady-state irradiation of samples and before critical bursts. The results of the evaluation do not satisfy for the ICSBEP standards as the benchmark relative standard uncertainty is of about 4% for k eff , and the relative difference between sample calculations and expected k eff results is of about 1.5%. Due to those unsatisfactory results, it was decided not to pursue critical experiments evaluation of the HPRR presently and to focus instead on shielding type data for the creation of a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) and shielding category benchmark, which is currently very scarce in the ICSBEP handbook—especially concerning critical, pulsed assembly, or reactor operation data. Several dosimetry and shielding experiments from HPRR burst operation were evaluated, with different benchmark metrics as sulfur fluence, Element 57 dose, or neutron fluence at different distances and under different shield materials conditions. An evaluation focusing on the Element 57 neutron dose as a benchmark metric was submitted to the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) meeting in October 2021, and the inclusion of the evaluation in the ICSBEP Handbook was deferred. The main change proposed by the international experiment evaluation experts is to use the neutron fluence measured by Bonner spheres as a benchmark metric. This represents a quantity closer to that actually measured by the experimentalists of the HPRR compared to the Element 57 dose, which adds another step of data transformation, thus potentially adding uncertainty to the benchmark. The evaluation has been updated and will be submitted to the 2022 ICSBEP TRG meeting for inclusion in the 2023 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The evaluation is performed using the KENO and MAVRIC combination from the SCALE 6.2.4 code suite which was previously used in similar CAAS benchmarks to allow for the use of variance reduction techniques.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive-Maintenance Practices: For Operational Safety of Battery Energy Storage Systems

Changes in the Demand Profile and a growing role for renewable and distributed generation are leading to rapid evolution in the electric grid. These changes are beginning to considerably strain the transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are increasingly recognizing that the integration of energy storage in the grid infrastructure will help manage intermittency and improve grid reliability. This recognition, coupled with the proliferation of state-level renewable portfolio standards and rapidly declining lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery costs, has led to a surge in the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESSs). Additionally, although BESSs represented less than 1% of grid-scale energy storage in the United States in 2019, they are the preferred technology to meet growing demand because they are modular, scalable, and easy to deploy across diverse use cases and geographic locations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using temperature and flow fields to detect gas leakage from canisters containing spent nuclear fuel: Applications to RAMM-TM

The multi-physics STAR-CCM+ code has been used to simulate the temperature and flow fields in canister gas leakage experiments conducted by using a 1/4.5-scale model storage cask. The simulations were conducted at Argonne National Laboratory’s Laboratory Computing Resource Center, utilizing high-performance computing resources. Development of STAR-CCM+ simulation models for the 1/4.5-scale model cask is described herein, followed by validation of the simulation results against experimental data. Canister depressurization and thermal response during gas leakage are discussed, along with analyses of the leakage path and allowable leakage rate. The insights gained from the STAR-CCM+ simulations and leakage analyses will help guide future experiments and actual industry applications of Argonne’s Remote Area Modular Monitoring system for canister surface temperature measurement (RAMM-TM) to enable effective aging management of spent fuel during extended dry storage, as well as help reduce risks to public safety and health and protect the environment.

Canister gas leakage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wood-to-Fuel Demonstration Project for California's Transportation Sector using Autothermal Pyrolysis (Non-Proprietary Summary Process Hazard Assessment)

Frontline has prioritized personnel safety, equipment preservation, and environmental protection throughout the design process of the autothermal pyrolysis unit. To facilitate a safe design, Frontline completed an informal hazards and operability (HAZOP) study and a formal HAZOP study, and employ management of change procedures. The result of these safety procedures is a plant that will function in a safe manner with a limited and acceptable amount of risk. Frontline took an approach it used in previous projects to execute a preliminary, internally facilitated hazards and operability (HAZOP) study. While this HAZOP study was performed without any subsequent change tracking, it enables a group of well-trained engineers to consider the safety implications of each part of the plant in a thorough and methodical manner. Frontline chose to bring in a pyrolysis consultant (Daren Daugaard of Burning Oak Energy) to participate in the review. Following the preliminary HAZOP and once the detailed design work was nearing completion, Frontline performed a formal HAZOP with a third-party facilitator, Jason Stittleburg of Novetus Engineering. Although the plant is not subject to process safety management (PSM) requirements, this formal HAZOP was performed in accordance with OSHA regulations deemed reasonable for PSM. Finally, after the formal HAZOP was conducted, Frontline maintained a safe system by implementing and following management of change procedures on each substantial change to the process. Frontline has kept a record of each subsequent change made to the formal HAZOP P&IDs. The process hazard assessment process allowed Frontline to find and correct several unacceptable configurations within the plant.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗