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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Jitter Correction

Jitter_Correct.m is a MATLAB function that automatically measures and corrects inter-frame jitter in an image sequence to a user-specified precision. In addition, the algorithm dynamically adjusts the image sample size to increase the accuracy of the measurement. The Jitter_Correct.m function takes an image sequence with unknown frame-to-frame jitter and computes the translations of each frame (column and row, in pixels) relative to a chosen reference frame with sub-pixel accuracy. The translations are measured using a Cross Correlation Fourier transformation method in which the relative phase of the two transformed images is fit to a plane. The measured translations are then used to correct the inter-frame jitter of the image sequence. The function also dynamically expands the image sample size over which the cross-correlation is measured to increase the accuracy of the measurement. This increases the robustness of the measurement to variable magnitudes of inter-frame jitter

Waegell, Mordecai J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2010

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

BACKGROUND: There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies. DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: The Harderian Gland data of Alpen et al.[1-3] was re-analyzed [4] using non-linear least square regression. The data set measured the induction of Harderian gland tumors in mice by high-energy protons, helium, neon, iron, niobium and lanthanum with LET s ranging from 0.4 to 950 keV/micron. We were able to strengthen the individual ion models by combining data for all ions into a model that relates both radiation dose and LET for the ion to tumor prevalence. We compared models based on Targeted Effects (TE) to one motivated by Non-targeted Effects (NTE) that included a bystander term that increased tumor induction at low doses non-linearly. When comparing fitted models to the experimental data, we considered the adjusted R2, the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to test for Goodness of fit.In the adjusted R2test, the model with the highest R2values provides a better fit to the available data. In the AIC and BIC tests, the model with the smaller values of the summary value provides the better fit. The non-linear NTE models fit the combined data better than the TE models that are linear at low doses. We evaluated the differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and found the NTE model provides a higher RBE at low dose compared to the TE model. POWER ANALYSIS: The final NTE model estimates were used to simulate example data to consider the design of new experiments to detect NTE at low dose for validation. Power and sample sizes were calculated for a variety of radiation qualities including some not considered in the Harderian Gland data set and with different background tumor incidences. We considered different experimental designs with varying number of doses and varying low doses dependant on the LET of the radiation. The optimal design to detect a NTE for an individual ion had 4 doses equally spaced below a maximal dose where bending due to cell sterilization was < 2%. For example at 100 keV/micron we would irradiate at 0.03 Gy, 0.065 Gy, 0.13 Gy, and 0.26 Gy and require 850 mice including a control dose for a sensitivity to detect NTE with 80% power. Sample sizes could be improved by combining ions similar to the methods used with the Harderian Gland data.

Chappelli, Lori J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tools for Water Ingress Testing

The Safety Storage and Engineering Team, as part of the Production Support Services division (PSS-2), is tasked with ensuring the safety of containers used for handling and storage of nuclear materials. As part of this work, water ingress tests are conducted to evaluate the water-tightness of containers intended for in-glovebox use. In collaboration, the statistics group of the Computer and Computational Sciences Division (CCS-6) provided support in developing a statistically defensible approach for determining appropriate sample sizes for water ingress testing. Water ingress testing involves multiple measurements on multiple containers. Our approach uses a simple random effects model to analyze a pilot data set, implementing prediction limits to evaluate the efficacy of collecting additional data. Although this study capitalizes on available data, our approach can be used with estimates of the ratio of between and within variability and average values, often available from past testing or expert knowledge. An interactive Shiny tool was developed as a final user-friendly product for future testing. The Shiny interface is an open-source package providing a framework for building web applications. Raw data exploration and prediction interval-based sample size assessments can quickly be conducted by the engineering team without needing to interact with the underlying code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Assessment of Countermeasure Efficacy for Long-Term Space Missions

One of the main functions of the upcoming International Space Station (ISS) will be to provide a venue for testing proposed countermeasures for their ability to protect humans from the debilitating effects of longterm space flight. However, several limiting factors preclude an evaluation process similar to that used in clinical trials which traditionally are implemented with large sample sizes of subjects, including control groups, and with blind or double-blind application of treatments according to factorial or other balanced experimental designs. In particular, only very limited numbers of human subjects will be available for actual field testing in the ISS With no more than 125 subjects planned to fly on all ISS missions over 10 years, it is not possible to test extensive combinations of some 15-20 proposed countermeasures. Furthermore because of safety concerns and operational considerations, it is unlikely that anything other than the current best guess at the most effective countermeasure package will ever be used on ISS. In particular, control or placebos will not be allowed. In view of these limitations, historical data and groundbased or animal studies will have to be used to compensate for small sample sizes and lack of controls in the field. As a result, statistical analysis methodology will have to be developed which allows for the integration of these disparate data types into a meaningful evaluation process. The process must be sequential, providing objective rules for deciding through time whether to reject or modify an ineffective countermeasure, or whether to certify one as effective. Additional output should include performance characteristics for all relevant physiological systems, including uncertainty analyses and estimates of accept/reject decision error rates.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Evolution of Randomized Clinical Trial Designs to Assess Therapeutics in Alzheimer Disease

Importance The success of recent randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for Alzheimer disease (AD), particularly those focusing on anti-amyloid therapies, has been discussed at length. However, the evolution of RCT design features for AD that preceded this success remain underexplored. Objective To describe temporal changes in the features of RCT design for interventions in AD. Evidence Review PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched in January 2025 for phase 2 and 3 AD RCTs published between January 1992 and December 2024. RCTs that investigated an intervention for AD, with a placebo or standard-of-care control group, were included. Four assessors independently reviewed full-text articles to capture study characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures The number of participants and the duration of RCTs as well as the target population, outcomes, and funding were extracted from published reports. These features were analyzed with respect to time using linear regression and χ 2 analyses. Results The study included 203 RCTs with 79 589 participants testing interventions in AD. From 1992 to 2024, the mean sample size increased by 464% for phase 2 RCTs (from 42 to 237), and 50% for phase 3 RCTs (from 632 to 951), while the mean trial duration increased by 188% (from 16 to 46 weeks) for phase 2, and 256% (from 20 to 71 weeks) for phase 3 RCTs. This longer duration of RCTs may be partially attributed by a greater share of disease-modifying rather than symptomatic treatments. Similarly, more recent trials required AD biomarker evidence for enrollment (from 1 of 36 [2.7%] before 2006 to 40 of 76 [52.6%] since 2019). A substantial difference in the type of therapeutics researched was observed, with anti-amyloid and anti-tau RCTs being more likely to be funded by the pharmaceutical industry compared with neurotransmitter or other RCTs (anti-amyloid or anti-tau, 68 of 71 [95.8%]; neurotransmitter, 52 of 69 [77.6%]; other, 33 of 52 [63.5%]). RCT transparency improved, with more frequent data accessibility statements, registered reports, and better reporting on race and ethnicity. Conclusions and Relevance This methodology research of AD RCTs highlights substantial changes in key features of AD clinical trials from 1992 to 2024. AD RCTs have become larger and longer, such that they are powered to detect smaller clinical differences. The increased sample sizes and duration should enable the detection of smaller and more slowly occurring outcomes, which may lead to successful RCTs of therapies with slower and more subtle efficacy.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonequilibrium defect-phase nanostructures stabilized by irradiation in undersaturated Ni-Si nanocrystalline alloy

Nanocrystalline thin films of the undersaturated alloy Ni-8.5 at% Si were subjected to 2 MeV Ti irradiation at temperatures ranging from 450˚C to 550˚C. Correlative microscopy combining transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning-TEM and atom probe tomography (APT revealed that large dose irradiation at 450˚C of samples with initial grain sizes below 100 nm stabilized a novel nanostructure which surprisingly contained three co-existing phases, the γ face-centered-cubic (FCC) matrix, γ' L12 ordered precipitates on intragranular dislocation loops and Ni 31 Si 12 precipitates at triple junctions (TJs). In contrast, irradiation at 550˚C and irradiation of larger grain-size samples at 450˚C only produced a γ-γ' two-phase coexistence. Analysis of the three-phase nanostructure and phase field simulations indicates that radiation-induced segregation is most pronounced at TJs, thus triggering the formation of Ni 31 Si 12 precipitates. These incoherent precipitates, in turn, are expected to stabilize the grain size under irradiation. The results are generalized using the concept of driven defect-phases. It is suggested that the stabilization of driven defect-phases may impart radiation resilience by providing localized relaxation modes to the microstructure evolution during and after temporary perturbations in irradiation conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of lighting environment on task performance in buildings – A review

The effects of indoor environmental conditions on human health, satisfaction, and performance have been the focal point of research for decades. This paper reviews and summarizes the impact of lighting environment on task performance, specifically for the built environment audience. Existing studies included a variety of performance tests on cognitive performance and perception, visual acuity and reaction, memory, reasoning, and labor productivity. Illuminance, luminance ratio and correlated color temperature were found to affect performance in different ways, reflecting the impact of experimental techniques, conditions, performance evaluation methods used and data analysis methods. These were reviewed and categorized, with discussion on limitations related to sample size, modeling approach, carryover effects and other factors affecting individual differences in performance, with recommendations for future improvement. Although no universal conclusions can be made, in general, task performance seems to improve with higher illuminances, contrast ratios in the range of 7–11:1 (while always making sure that glare will not occur in the space) and higher correlated color temperature, while spectral tuning in the red or blue wavelengths has also shown positive effects. To obtain more generic evidence, future studies should be more consistent in terms of experimental procedures and overall light conditions, and also consider the effects of vertical illuminance, daylight provision/control, and outside views on task performance. Finally, studying performance with multi-factorial designs in a human-centered optimized manner (such as deploying variable lighting scenarios optimized for various tasks) can lead to deeper understanding of lighting effects on task performance, and ultimately to improved lighting design and operation in buildings overall.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A lathe system for micrometre-sized cylindrical sample preparation at room and cryogenic temperatures

A simple two-spindle based lathe system for the preparation of cylindrical samples intended for X-ray tomography is presented. The setup can operate at room temperature as well as under cryogenic conditions, allowing the preparation of samples down to 20 and 50 µm in diameter, respectively, within minutes. Case studies are presented involving the preparation of a brittle biomineral brachiopod shell and cryogenically fixed soft brain tissue, and their examination by means of ptychographic X-ray computed tomography reveals the preparation method to be mainly free from causing artefacts. Since this lathe system easily yields near-cylindrical samples ideal for tomography, a usage for a wide variety of otherwise challenging specimens is anticipated, in addition to potential use as a time- and cost-saving tool prior to focused ion-beam milling. Fast sample preparation becomes especially important in relation to shorter measurement times expected in next-generation synchrotron sources.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Support for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

In this research, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods are used to search an uncertain parameter space more efficiently for the most important inputs with respect to response sensitivities. These methods are applied to the Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) probabilistic fracture mechanics code used at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in support of nuclear regulatory research. This report documents two separate but related sub-tasks: (1) ranking important uncertain input features with respect to target outputs, determined by convergence in confidence intervals for increasing sample sizes using simple random sampling; and (2) implementation of a reduced-order surrogate model for fast, approximate sample generation. Unoptimized readily available off-the-shelf ML models were used in both sub-tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Laser Diffraction Techniques Replace Sieving for Lunar Soil Particle Size Distribution Data

Sieving was used extensively until 1999 to determine the particle size distribution of lunar samples. This method is time-consuming, and requires more than a gram of material in order to obtain a result in which one may have confidence. This is demonstrated by the difference in geometric mean and median for samples measured by [1], in which a 14-gram sample produced a geometric mean of approx.52 micrometers, whereas two other samples of ~1.5 grams resulted in gave means of approx.63 and approx.69 micrometers. Sample allocations for sieving are typically much smaller than a gram, and many of the sample allocations received by our lab are 0.5 to 0.25 grams in mass. Basu [2] has described how the finest fraction of the soil is easily lost in the sieving process, and this effect is compounded when sample sizes are small.

Cooper, Bonnie L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Development of the Resource Prospector Planetary Rover

The Resource Prospector (RP) is an In-­‐Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) lunar rover mission under study by NASA. RP is planned to launch in 2020 to prospect for subsurface volatiles and to extract oxygen from lunar regolith. The mission will address several of NASA's "Strategic Knowledge Gaps" for lunar exploration. The mission will also address the Global Exploration Roadmap's strategic goal of using local resources for human exploration. The distribution of lunar subsurface volatiles drives the mission requirement for mobility. The spatial distribution is hypothesized to be governed by impact cratering with the top 0.5 m being patchy at scales of 100 m. The mixing time scale increases with depth (less frequent larger impacts). Consequently, increased mobility reduces the depth requirement for sampling. The target RP traverse will extend 1 km radially from the landing site to sample craters of varying sizes. Sampling craters with different ages will reveal possible volatile emplacement history. In 1 Ga, approximately 60-­70 craters of 10 m diameter form per km2. Thus, the rover will need to sample at least ten of these craters, which may require a total traverse path length of 2-­‐3 km. During 2014-­2015, we developed an initial prototype rover for RP. The current design is a solar powered, four-­wheeled vehicle, with hub motor drive, offset four wheel steering, and active suspension. Active suspension provides capabilities including changing vehicle ride height, traversing comparatively large obstacles, and controlling load on the wheels. All-­wheel steering enables the vehicle to point arbitrarily while roving, e.g., to keep the solar array pointed at the sun while in motion. The offset steering combined with active suspension improves driving in soft soil. The rover's on-­board software utilizes NASA's Core Flight Software, which is a reusable flight software environment. During 2015, we completed the initial rover software build, which provides low-­level hardware interfaces, basic mobility control, waypoint driving, odometry, basic error checking, and camera services. Development of the prototype rover has enabled maturation of many of the subsystems to TRL 5. During the next year, we will conduct integrated testing of concepts of operation, navigation, and remote driving tools. In addition, we will perform environmental tests including radiation (avionics), thermal and thermal/vacuum (mechanisms), and gravity offload (mobility).

robotics↗
DOE OSTI2020

SubTSBR to tackle high noise and outliers for data-driven discovery of differential equations

Data-driven discovery of differential equations has been an emerging research topic. We propose a novel algorithm subsampling-based threshold sparse Bayesian regression (SubTSBR) to tackle high noise and outliers. The subsampling technique is used for improving the accuracy of the Bayesian learning algorithm. It has two parameters: subsampling size and the number of subsamples. When the subsampling size increases with fixed total sample size, the accuracy of our algorithm goes up and then down. When the number of subsamples increases, the accuracy of our algorithm keeps going up. We demonstrate how to use our algorithm step by step and compare our algorithm with threshold sparse Bayesian regression (TSBR) for the discovery of differential equations. We show that our algorithm produces better results. We also discuss the merits of discovering differential equations from data and demonstrate how to discover models with random initial and boundary condition as well as models with bifurcations. The numerical examples are: (1) predator-prey model with noise, (2) shallow water equations with outliers, (3) heat diffusion with random initial and boundary condition, and (4) fish-harvesting problem with bifurcations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

spammR: an R package designed for analysis and integration of spatial multi-omic measurements

Spatial omics is a young and evolving field and as such shows rapid development of novel technologies and analysis methods to measure transcripts, proteins, metabolites, and post-translational modifications at high spatial resolution. These advances in technology have enabled the simultaneous generation of abundance profiles for multiple different omics types and associated microscopy imaging data, as well as their analysis in a spatial context. However, most analytical tools are designed for spatial transcriptomics platforms and are challenging to use in other contexts such as mass spectrometry-based measurements or metagenomics. To this end we present spammR (spatial analysis of multi-omics measurements in R), an R package that enables end-to-end analysis with a specific focus on mass-spectrometry derived spatial omics datasets with (1) smaller sample sizes and spatial sparsity of samples, (2) considerable missingness, and (3) no a-priori knowledge about proteins or genes of interest, relying on a fully data-driven approach.

spammR↗
NASA NTRS1973

An investigation to improve the Menhaden fishery prediction and detection model through the application of ERTS-A data

The author has identified the following significant results. Linear regression of secchi disc visibility against number of sets yielded significant results in a number of instances. The variability seen in the slope of the regression lines is due to the nonuniformity of sample size. The longer the period sampled, the larger the total number of attempts. Further, there is no reason to expect either the influence of transparency or of other variables to remain constant throughout the season. However, the fact that the data for the entire season, variable as it is, was significant at the 5% level, suggests its potential utility for predictive modeling. Thus, this regression equation will be considered representative and will be utilized for the first numerical model. Secchi disc visibility was also regressed against number of sets for the three day period September 27-September 29, 1972 to determine if surface truth data supported the intense relationship between ERTS-1 identified turbidity and fishing effort previously discussed. A very negative correlation was found. These relationship lend additional credence to the hypothesis that ERTS imagery, when utilized as a source of visibility (turbidity) data, may be useful as a predictive tool.

Maughan, P. M.↗