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At least 145 records · Page 8

Quantifying the Diversity of an Atmospheric Aerosol Population in an Arctic Oil Field on a Single‐Particle Level

As the Arctic rapidly warms, sea ice extent is decreasing and oil and gas extraction activities are expanding. Local combustion emissions affect the Arctic atmospheric aerosol chemical mixing state (the distribution of chemical species across the aerosol population), which impacts climate-relevant properties. Bulk and single-particle measurements of submicron aerosols were conducted at Oliktok Point, Alaska within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields. In this work, we quantify aerosol diversity using online single-particle mass spectrometry data (32,880 individual particles), offline single-particle microscopy data (20,912 individual particles), and online bulk aerosol mass spectrometry and aethalometer data. This method was used to derive individual particle mass fractions for both refractory and non-refractory material within distinct particle types. Single-particle, average single-particle, and bulk population diversities (D i , D α , D γ , respectively) and mixing state indices (χ) were calculated for the data set. Calculated D i values were generally low (2.2 ± 0.6), as individual particle masses were dominated by a few chemical species of interest. Aged aerosol particles (those internally mixed with nitrate and/or sulfate) exhibited higher D i values (>3) compared to recently emitted (fresh) aerosol particles. During oil field plume periods, D α values approached three due to the abundance of diesel combustion particles, which were rich in sulfate, black carbon, and organic aerosol. Overall, the submicron aerosol population within the Arctic oil fields was found to be relatively externally mixed (χ < 50%), due to the constant local emissions within oil fields combining with background aerosol and locally emitted sea spray aerosol at the coastal site.

Wu, J.↗

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Understanding the Simulated Phase Partitioning of Arctic Single-Layer Mixed-Phase Clouds in E3SM

21 Mixed-phase clouds are widespread in the Arctic and have substantial impacts on the 22 surface energy budget, sea ice extent, and regional climate. Significant changes are found in the 23 modeled phase partitioning of Arctic mixed-phase clouds in the newly developed U.S. 24 Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model 25 version 1 (EAMv1) compared to its predecessor (CAM5/EAMv0). The mixed-phase clouds 26 simulated by EAMv1 is overly dominated by super-cool liquid which is often underestimated by 27 CAM5. Compared to CAM5, EAMv1 has made several important changes in its cloud physical 28 parameterizations, including using CLUBB to unify shallow convection, PBL turbulence, and 29 cloud macrophysics, as well as updating the MG two-moment cloud microphysics scheme and 30 using the CNT heterogeneous ice nucleation scheme to replace the Meyers scheme for mixed- 31 phase clouds. To understand which of the newly-implemented physical parameterizations is 32 responsible for the change of modeled mixed-phase cloud phase partitioning in EAMv1, 33 sensitivity tests are conducted by utilizing the short-term hindcast approach and results are 34 compared to the observations from the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) 35 field campaign. 36 It is found that although each scheme contributes to the decrease of cloud ice water 37 content (IWC) and increase of cloud liquid water content (LWC), only the combined effect of 38 CLUBB and CNT can explain the significant underestimation of IWC. By examining the budgets 39 of cloud microphysical processes, CLUBB is found to play a dominant role due to the fact that 40 CLUBB does not diagnoses cloud ice phase water in its assumed joint PDF method and thus may 41 not provide sufficient cloud ice to initialize ice phase microphysical processes such as the growth 42 of ice crystals through vapor deposition. Although a more effective heterogeneous ice nucleation 43 may alleviate the underestimation of IWC, the ice phase process in CLUBB requires urgent 44 attention in the future model development.

Zhang, Meng↗

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Combining artificial intelligence, Earth observations, and climate models to improve predictability of ice-biogeochemistry interactions

Focal Area: Predictive Modeling. We describe how artificial intelligence (AI) can be combined with state-of-the-science Earth system models to better predict future regional climate responses. To demonstrate, we describe a case study in biogeochemical interactions with sea ice. Science Challenge: Biogeochemical models are poorly constrained for high latitude systems. Machine learning methods and edge computing can be combined with Earth system models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), to gain insight into ice-biogeochemical interactions and improve sea ice extent prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of satellite altimetry in climate studies

The results of three generations of satellite-borne radar altimetry experiments are summarized. The diverse measurements possible from this instrument are shown to be directly applicable to studies of the importance of the oceans in climate. The radar altimeter has unique value for investigations seeking knowledge of the interconnections between ocean dynamics, heat and momentum transfer across the air-sea interface, sea ice extent, and polar ice sheet thickness.

Parsons, C. L.↗

The GLAS physical inversion method for analysis of HIRS2/MSU sounding data

Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences has developed a method to derive atmospheric temperature profiles, sea or land surface temperatures, sea ice extent and snow cover, and cloud heights and fractional cloud, from HIRS2/MSU radiance data. Chapter 1 describes the physics used in the radiative transfer calculations and demonstrates the accuracy of the calculations. Chapter 2 describes the rapid transmittance algorithm used and demonstrates its accuracy. Chapter 3 describes the theory and application of the techniques used to analyze the satellite data. Chapter 4 shows results obtained for January 1979.

Susskind, J.↗

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the Toba super-eruption

Model calculations that investigate the possible climatic effects of the Toba volcanic cloud are presented. The increase in atmospheric opacity might have produced a 'volcanic winter', followed by a few years with maximum estimated annual hemispheric surface-temperature decreases of 3-5 C. The eruption occurred during the stage 5a-4 transition of the oxygen isotope record, a time of rapid ice growth and falling sea level. It is suggested that the Toba eruption may have greatly accelerated the shift to glacial conditions that was already under way, by inducing perennial snow cover and increased sea-ice extent at sensitive northern latitudes. As the onset of climate change may have helped to trigger the eruption itself, it is proposed that the Toba event may exemplify a more general climate-volcano feedback mechanism.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER)

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is a multispectral imaging radiometer scheduled to fly in Earth orbit in 1998 on NASA's Earth Observation System platform. The instrument will have 14 spectral bands from the visible to thermal infrared wavelength regions with high spectral and spatial resolution and with along-track stereoscopic capability. ASTER imagery will be used to study such phenomena as Earth surface properties, elements of the surface heat balance, cloud cover characteristics, glacier and sea ice extent, patterns of vegetation and land use, volcanoes, coral reefs and coastal processes, geology and topography, and hydrology. ASTER will have three separate radiometer subsystems, each with a swath width of 60 km. Any point on the globe will be accessible at least once every 16 days for the short wavelength infrared and thermal infrared subsystems, and once every five days for the visible and near infrared subsystem. Instrument and spacecraft resources are allocated to support an 8 percent average duty cycle, corresponding to over 700 60 by 60-km scenes per day. ASTER data will be acquired and processed according to specific user requirements over its five-year mission.

Kahle, Anne B.↗

The Origin of Antarctic Precipitation: A Modeling Approach

Isotope concentrations in polar ice cores have long been used to estimate paleotemperatures. Underlying the use of this "isotope paleothermometer" is the assumption that the relationship between surface temperature and isotope concentration over time at a single geographical point is the same as that observed over space during the present-day climate. The validity of this assumption may in fact be compromised by several factors related to climate change. The specific factor studied in this paper involves the evaporative sources for polar precipitation. Climatic changes in the relative strengths of these sources would imply a need for a recalibration of the paleothermometer. To quantify such changes, we performed two GCM simulations, one of present-day climate and the other of the climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), roughly 18000 years ago. Evaporative sources of Antarctic precipitation were established using special tracer diagnostics. Results suggest that polar precipitation during the LGM does indeed consist of (relatively) more water from tropical oceans, a direct reflection of the LGM's increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient and its increased sea ice extent, which reduces high latitude evaporation. This result implies that an uncalibrated ice core paleothermometer would produce LGM temperatures that are biased slightly low. Because LGM boundary conditions are still under debate, we performed a third GCM simulation using a modified set of LGM boundary conditions. Using this simulation gives some qualitatively similar results, though the tropical contribution is not quite as high. Uncertainties in the LGM boundary conditions does hamper success in calibrating the paleothermometer.

Delaygue, Gilles↗

Sea Ice Surface Temperature Product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

Global sea ice products are produced from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board both the Terra and Aqua satellites. Daily sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST) products are available at 1- and 4-km resolution. Validation activities have been undertaken to assess the accuracy of the MODIS IST product at the South Pole station in Antarctica and in the Arctic Ocean using near-surface air-temperature data from a meteorological station and drifting buoys. Results from the study areas show that under clear skies, the MODIS ISTs are very close to those of the near-surface air temperatures with a bias of -1.1 and -1.2 K, and an uncertainty of 1.6 and 1.7 K, respectively. It is shown that the uncertainties would be reduced if the actual temperature of the ice surface were reported instead of the near-surface air temperature. It is not possible to get an accurate IST from MODIS in the presence of even very thin clouds or fog, however using both the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) and the MODIS on the Aqua satellite, it may be possible to develop a relationship between MODIS-derived IST and ice temperature derived from the AMSR-E. Since the AMSR-E measurements are generally unaffected by cloud cover, they may be used to complement the MODIS IST measurements.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Accessing and Understanding MODIS Data

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched the Terra satellite in December 1999, as part of the Earth Science Enterprise promotion of interdisciplinary studies of the integrated Earth system. Aqua, the second satellite from the series of EOS constellation, was launched in May 2002. Both satellites carry the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS data are processed at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, and then archived and distributed by the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). Data products from the MODIS sensors present new challenges to remote sensing scientists due to specialized production level, data format, and map projection. MODIS data are distributed as calibrated radiances and as higher level products such as: surface reflectance, water-leaving radiances, ocean color and sea surface temperature, land surface kinetic temperature, vegetation indices, leaf area index, land cover, snow cover, sea ice extent, cloud mask, atmospheric profiles, aerosol properties, and many other geophysical parameters. MODIS data are stored in HDF- EOS format in both swath format and in several different map projections. This tutorial guides users through data set characteristics as well as search and order interfaces, data unpacking, data subsetting, and potential applications of the data. A CD-ROM with sample data sets, and software tools for working with the data will be provided to the course participants.

Leptoukh, Gregory↗

Science Data Processing for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer: Earth Observing System

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration established the framework for the Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) to enable the Earth science data products to be produced by personnel directly associated with the instrument science team and knowledgeable of the science algorithms. One of the first instantiations implemented for NASA was the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) SIPS. The AMSR-E SIPS is a decentralized, geographically distributed ground data processing system composed of two primary components located in California and Alabama. Initial science data processing is conducted at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Santa Rosa, California. RSS ingests antenna temperature orbit data sets from JAXA and converts them to calibrated, resampled, geolocated brightness temperatures. The brightness temperatures are sent to the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, Alabama, which generates the geophysical science data products (e.g., water vapor, sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, etc.) suitable for climate research and applications usage. These science products are subsequently sent to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center in Boulder, Colorado for archival and dissemination to the at-large science community. This paper describes the organization, coordination, and production techniques employed by the AMSR-E SIPS in implementing, automating and operating the distributed data processing system.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

Physical and Radiative Characteristic and Long-term Variability of the Okhotsk Sea Ice Cover

Much of what we know about the large scale characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea ice cover has been provided by ice concentration maps derived from passive microwave data. To understand what satellite data represent in a highly divergent and rapidly changing environment like the Okhotsk Sea, we take advantage of concurrent satellite, aircraft, and ship data acquired on 7 February and characterized the sea ice cover at different scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers. Through comparative analysis of surface features using co-registered data from visible, infrared and microwave channels we evaluated the general radiative and physical characteristics of the ice cover as well as quantify the distribution of different ice types in the region. Ice concentration maps from AMSR-E using the standard sets of channels, and also only the 89 GHz channel for optimal resolution, are compared with aircraft and high resolution visible data and while the standard set provides consistent results, the 89 GHz provides the means to observe mesoscale patterns and some unique features of the ice cover. Analysis of MODIS data reveals that thick ice types represents about 37% of the ice cover indicating that young and new ice types represent a large fraction of the ice cover that averages about 90% ice concentration according to passive microwave data. These results are used to interpret historical data that indicate that the Okhotsk Sea ice extent and area are declining at a rapid rate of about -9% and -12 % per decade, respectively.

Nishio, Fumihiko↗

ICESat Observations of Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Sea-Ice Freeboard and Estimated Thickness in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica (2003-2009)

Sea-ice freeboard heights for 17 ICESat campaign periods from 2003 to 2009 are derived from ICESat data. Freeboard is combined with snow depth from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data and nominal densities of snow, water and sea ice, to estimate sea-ice thickness. Sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions show clear seasonal variations that reflect the yearly cycle of growth and decay of the Weddell Sea (Antarctica) pack ice. During October-November, sea ice grows to its seasonal maximum both in area and thickness; the mean freeboards are 0.33-0.41 m and the mean thicknesses are 2.10-2.59 m. During February-March, thinner sea ice melts away and the sea-ice pack is mainly distributed in the west Weddell Sea; the mean freeboards are 0.35-0.46 m and the mean thicknesses are 1.48-1.94 m. During May-June, the mean freeboards and thicknesses are 0.26-0.29 m and 1.32-1.37 m, respectively. The 6 year trends in sea-ice extent and volume are (0.023+/-0.051) x 10(exp 6)sq km/a (0.45%/a) and (0.007+/-1.0.092) x 10(exp 3)cu km/a (0.08%/a); however, the large standard deviations indicate that these positive trends are not statistically significant.

Yi, Donghui↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗