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At least 145 records · Page 8

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE: Well 56-32 Drilling Data and Logs

This dataset consists of drilling data (Pason data spreadsheets, daily reports, days v. depth, mud logs), Schlumberger logs (FMI, shear anisotropy analysis, memory, sonic, array induction/spectral density/dual spaced neutron/gamma ray/caliper, spectral GR/temperature, and Gardner density correlation), and an end of well report (EOWR) for Utah FORGE well 56-32. This is a vertical well that will be used for seismic monitoring. It was drilled between February 7th and February 21st 2021 to a depth of 9,145 feet. More information about this well can be found at: https://utahforge.com/2021/02/09/drilling-progress-of-well-56-32/ (linked below)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seismically Detecting Nuclear Reactor Operations Using a Power Spectral Density (PSD) Misfit Detector

To explore the ability to indirectly detect and attribute various operations conducted at a nuclear reactor using waveform data, we investigated the seismic signals recorded near the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Specifically, we processed seismic data collected from a single seismoacoustic station, WACO, near the HFIR facility, and employed a power spectral density misfit detector to identify signals of interest and associate the detections with operational events. Initial results suggest that this method provides a promising means of regularly detecting at least 19 unique operations. Furthermore, with additional station deployment and more comprehensive data logs, we anticipate that future analysis will offer an additional means to seismically monitor nuclear reactors (such as HFIR) health and performance more accurately.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO 2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. In conclusion, this study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Global DAS Month of February 2023

During February 2023, a total of 32 individual distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems acted jointly as a global seismic monitoring network. The aim of this Global DAS Month campaign was to coordinate a diverse network of organizations, instruments, and file formats to gain knowledge and move toward the next generation of earthquake monitoring networks. During this campaign, 156 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or larger were reported by the U.S. Geological Survey and contributors shared data for 60 min after each event’s origin time. Participating systems represent a variety of manufacturers, a range of recording parameters, and varying cable emplacement settings (e.g., shallow burial, borehole, subaqueous, and dark fiber). Monitored cable lengths vary between 152 and 120,129 m, with channel spacing between 1 and 49 m. The data has a total size of 6.8 TB, and are available for free download. Finally, organizing and executing the Global DAS Month has produced a unique dataset for further exploration and highlighted areas of further development for the seismological community to address.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Deep Learning-Aided Workflow for Decoding the Stress Regime of Southern Nevada

The Rock Valley fault zone in southern Nevada has a notable history of seismic activity and is the site of a future direct comparison experiment of explosion and earthquake sources. This study aims to gain insight into regional tectonic processes by leveraging recent advances in seismic monitoring capabilities to elucidate the local stress regime. A crucial step in this investigation is the accurate determination of P-wave first-motion polarities, which play a vital role in resolving earthquake focal mechanisms of small earthquakes. Here, we deploy a deep learning-based method for automatic determination of first-motion polarities to vastly expand the polarity dataset beyond what has been reviewed by human analysts. By the integrating P-wave polarities with new measurements of S/P amplitude ratios, we obtain robust focal mechanism estimates for 1306 earthquakes with a local magnitude of 1 and above occurring between 2010 and 2023 in southern Nevada. We then use the focal mechanism catalog to examine the regional stress orientation, confirming an overall trans-tensional stress regime with smaller scale complexities illuminated by individual earthquake sequences. These findings demonstrate how detailed analyses of small earthquakes can provide fundamental information for understanding earthquake processes in the region and inform future experiments at the Nevada National Security Site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Making Phase-Picking Neural Networks More Consistent and Interpretable

Improving the interpretability of phase-picking neural networks remains an important task to facilitate their deployment to routine, real-time seismic monitoring. The popular phase-picking neural networks published in the literature lack interpretability because their output prediction scores do not necessarily correspond with the reliability of phase picks and can even be highly inconsistent depending on how we window the waveform data. Here, we show that systematically shifting the waveforms during training and using an antialiasing filter within the neural network architecture can substantially improve the consistency of the output prediction scores and can even make them scale with the signal-to-noise ratios of the waveforms. We demonstrate the improvements by applying these approaches to a commonly used phase-picking neural network architecture and using waveform data from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Value of Hyperparameter Optimization in Phase-Picking Neural Networks

The effectiveness of neural networks for picking seismic phase arrival times has been demonstrated through several case studies, and seismic monitoring programs are starting to adopt the technology into their workflows. However, published models were designed and trained using rather arbitrary choices of hyperparameters, limiting their performance. In this study, we use phase picks from both routine and template-matching analyses from multiple regions (Ridgecrest, California; Kilauea, Hawaii; Yellowstone, Wyoming–Montana–Idaho) to test a hyperparameter optimization scheme for phase-picking neural networks and to evaluate their performance. We show that a published model, namely PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2019), can be simplified and improved with reasonable effort and there are preferred choices of hyperparameters that increase the performance. We also show that models optimized based on the arrival times reported in routine event catalogs consistently perform well when picking arrival times of smaller events, which is crucial for many tasks from microseismicity to explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reducing the Parameter Dependency of Phase-Picking Neural Networks with Dice Loss

Training a neural network for picking seismic phase arrivals has been commonly posed as a segmentation problem. It is a highly imbalanced segmentation problem in the sense that the background vastly dominates the foreground because we are trying to pick the optimal single sample point that represents the arrival of a seismic phase in a many seconds long time window. Here, we test the Dice loss, which is a preferred loss function for highly imbalanced image segmentation problems. We show that phase-picking neural networks trained on the Dice loss behave in a binary fashion for which the prediction output is almost always either nearly 1 or nearly 0. This feature removes the strong dependence of data processing workflows on the prediction score threshold, which is an otherwise critical parameter to determine when using neural networks trained on the cross-entropy loss. When strategically used, models trained on the Dice loss can reduce the parameter dependency of machine learning-based seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LocOO3D User's Manual

LocOO3D is a software tool that computes geographical locations for seismic events at regional to global scales. This software has a rich set of features, including the ability to use custom 3D velocity models, correlated observations and master event locations. The LocOO3D software is especially useful for research related to seismic monitoring applications, since it allows users to easily explore a variety of location methods and scenarios and is compatible with the CSS3.0 data format used in monitoring applications. The LocOO3D software, User's Manual, and Examples are available on the web at: https://github.com/sandialabs/LocOO3D For additional information on GeoTess, SALSA3D, RSTT, and other related software, please see: https://github.com/sandialabs/GeoTessJava, www.sandia.gov/geotess, www.sandia.gov/salsa3d, and www.sandia.gov/rstt

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Testing Paired Neural Network Models for Aftershock Identification

Aftershock sequences are a burden to real-time seismic monitoring. Cross-correlation can be used because aftershocks exhibit similar waveforms, but the method is computationally expensive. Deep learning may be an alternative, as it is computationally efficient, but great attention to training and testing is required in order to trust that the model can generalize to new aftershock sequences. This is problematic for aftershock sequences, because large-magnitude earthquakes are unpredictable and are globally widespread. Here, we test several paired neural network (PNN) models trained on a augmented (noise-added) earthquake dataset, to determine whether they can be generalized to process real aftershock sequences. Two aftershock datasets that were originally detected by cross-correlation and subsequently validated by an expert analyst were used. We found that current PNN models struggle to generalize to aftershock sequences. However, we identify approaches to improve training future PNN models and believe that improvements may be achieved by transfer learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the derivation of coseismic displacement fields using differential radar interferometry: The Landers earthquake

We present a map of the coseimic displacement field resulting from the Landers, California, June 28, 1992, earthquake derived using data acquired from an orbiting high-resolution radar system. We achieve results more accurate than previous space studies and similar in accuracy to those obtained by conventional field survey techniques. Data from the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar instrument acquired in April, July, and August 1992 are used to generate a high-resolution, wide area map of the displacements. The data represent the motion in the direction of the radar line of sight to centimeter level precision of each 30-m resolution element in a 113 km by 90 km image. Our coseismic displacement contour map gives a lobed pattern consistent with theoretical models of the displacement field from the earthquake. Fine structure observed as displacement tiling in regions several kilometers from the fault appears to be the result of local surface fracturing. Comparison of these data with Global Positioning System and electronic distance measurement survey data yield a correlation of 0.96; thus the radar measurements are a means to extend the point measurements acquired by traditional techniques to an area map format. The technique we use is (1) more automatic, (2) more precise, and (3) better validated than previous similar applications of differential radar interferometry. Since we require only remotely sensed satellite data with no additioanl requirements for ancillary information. the technique is well suited for global seismic monitoring and analysis.

Zebker, Howard A.↗

Radiocarbon ages of lacustrine deposits in volcanic sequences of the Lomas Coloradas area, Socorro Island, Mexico

Extensive eruptions of alkalic basalt from low-elevation fissures and vents on the southern flank of the dormant volcano, Cerro Evermann, accompanied the most recent phase of volcanic activity on Socorro Island, and created the Lomas Coloradas, a broad, gently sloping terrain comprising the southern part of the island. We obtained 14C ages of 4690 +/- 270 BP (5000-5700 cal BP) and 5040 +/- 460 BP (5300-6300 cal BP) from lacustrine deposits that occur within volcanic sequences of the lower Lomas Coloradas. Apparently, the sediments accumulated within a topographic depression between two scoria cones shortly after they formed. The lacrustine environment was destroyed when the cones were breached by headward erosion of adjacent stream drainages. This was followed by the eruption of a thin basaltic flow from fissures near the base of the northernmost cone. The flow moved downslope for a short distance and into the drainages that presently bound the study area on the east and west. The flow postdates development of the present drainage system and may be very recent. Our 14C data, along with historical accounts of volcanic activity over the last century, including submarine eruptions that occurred a few km west of Socorro in early 1993, underscore the high risk for explosive volcanism in this region and the need for a detailed volcanic hazards plan and seismic monitoring.

NASA Center ARC↗

Deployable Mini-Payload Missions Enabled by Small Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs)

Deployable mini-payloads are envisioned as small, simple, standalone instruments that could be deployed from a mother vehicle such as a rover or the proposed Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter to key points of interest within the solar system. Used in conjunction with a small radioisotope power system (RPS), these payloads could potentially be used for long-duration science missions or as positional beacons for rovers or other spacecraft. The RPS power source would be suitable for deployable mini-payload missions that would take place anywhere there is limited, intermittent, or no solar insolation. This paper introduces two such concepts: (1) a seismic monitoring station deployed by a rover or aerobot, and (2) a passive fields and particles station delivered by a mother spacecraft to Jupiter.

deployables↗

Cooperative Lander-Surface/Aerial Microflyer Missions for Mars Exploration

Concepts are being investigated for exploratory missions to Mars based on Bioinspired Engineering of Exploration Systems (BEES), which is a guiding principle of this effort to develop biomorphic explorers. The novelty lies in the use of a robust telecom architecture for mission data return, utilizing multiple local relays (including the lander itself as a local relay and the explorers in the dual role of a local relay) to enable ranges ~10 to 1,000 km and downlink of color imagery. As illustrated in Figure 1, multiple microflyers that can be both surface or aerially launched are envisioned in shepherding, metamorphic, and imaging roles. These microflyers imbibe key bio-inspired principles in their flight control, navigation, and visual search operations. Honey-bee inspired algorithms utilizing visual cues to perform autonomous navigation operations such as terrain following will be utilized. The instrument suite will consist of a panoramic imager and polarization imager specifically optimized to detect ice and water. For microflyers, particularly at small sizes, bio-inspired solutions appear to offer better alternate solutions than conventional engineered approaches. This investigation addresses a wide range of interrelated issues, including desired scientific data, sizes, rates, and communication ranges that can be accomplished in alternative mission scenarios. The mission illustrated in Figure 1 offers the most robust telecom architecture and the longest range for exploration with two landers being available as main local relays in addition to an ephemeral aerial probe local relay. The shepherding or metamorphic plane are in their dual role as local relays and image data collection/storage nodes. Appropriate placement of the landing site for the scout lander with respect to the main mission lander can allow coverage of extremely large ranges and enable exhaustive survey of the area of interest. In particular, this mission could help with the path planning and risk mitigation in the traverse of the long-distance surface explorer/rover. The basic requirements of design and operation of BEES to implement the scenarios are discussed. Terrestrial applications of such concepts include distributed aerial/surface measurements of meteorological events, i.e., storm watch, seismic monitoring, reconnaissance, biological chemical sensing, search and rescue, surveillance, autonomous security/ protection agents, and/or delivery and lateral distribution of agents (sensors, surface/subsurface crawlers, clean-up agents). Figure 2 illustrates an Earth demonstration that is in development, and its implementation will illustrate the value of these biomorphic mission concepts.

Thakoor, Sarita↗

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗