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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Weakly supervised anomaly detection for resonant new physics in the dijet final state using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

An anomaly detection search for narrow-width resonances beyond the Standard Model that decay into a pair of jets is presented. The search is based on 139 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis is optimized without a particular signal model and aims to be sensitive to a broad range of new physics. It uses two different machine learning strategies to estimate the background in different signal regions. In each region, a weakly supervised classifier is trained to distinguish this background model from data. The analysis focuses on events with high transverse momentum jets reconstructed as large-radius jets. The mass and substructure of these jets are used as inputs to the classifiers. After a classifier-based selection, the distribution of the invariant mass of the two jets is used to search for potential local excesses. The model-independent results of both the anomaly detection methods show no signs of significant local excesses. In addition to model-independent results, a representative set of signal models is injected into the data, and the sensitivity of the methods to these scenarios is reported.

Aad, G. [Aix-Marseille Université] (ORCID:00000002↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Look at the LBEG & MPEG Beam Transmissions between HPSim and Operation Data

This report summarizes recent work on estimating the transmission of LANSCE H- beams from the end of the present DTL to both the PSR stripper foil (LBEG) and WNR target 4 (MPEG). The LBEG beam might be considered a more typical LINAC beam and lends itself to continuous monitoring of transmission through the various stages of the accelerator. For the MPEG, however, the widely-spaced micropulses and lack of the requisite sensitivity current monitors throughout the accelerator make these measurements extremely difficult and more uncertain. Therefore, to assist in estimating the MPEG beam transmission, beam-dynamics simulations using HPSim were employed. These beam transmission estimates from the end of the Drift Tube Linac (DTL) to Target 4 (MPEG) and the PSR stripper foil (LBEG) are vital to determine the charge requirements for LAMP’s front end. In this technote, we demonstrate three major efforts in determining the transmission: (1) Convert the WNR beamline lattice from TRANSPORT to HPSim for use in the simulation; (2) Simulate the optimization process in the Central Control Room (CCR) that brings down the losses by up to a factor of 4000 between the end of the initial physics-based tuneup phase and production beam operation; (3) Analyze operational data to deduce measured transmissions. Table 1 shows the estimated losses with HPSim and operational analysis. Finally, a better measurement and other improvements to refine the results are also proposed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Signs of nonmonotonic finite-volume corrections to 𝑔 𝐴

We study finite-volume (FV) corrections to determinations of 𝑔 𝐴 via lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) using analytic results and numerical analysis. We observe that 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(2) heavy Baryon chiral perturbation theory does not provide an unambiguous prediction for the sign of the FV correction, which is not surprising when one also considers large-𝑁 𝑐 constraints on the axial couplings. We further show that nonmonotonic FV corrections are naturally allowed when one considers either including explicit Δ-resonance degrees of freedom or one works to higher orders in the chiral expansion. We investigate the potential impact of these FV corrections with a precision study of 𝑔 𝐴 using models of FV corrections that are monotonic and nonmonotonic. Using lattice QCD data that is approximately at the 1% level of precision, we do not see significant evidence of nonmonotonic corrections. Looking forward to the next phase of lattice QCD calculations, we estimate that calculations that are between the 0.1% and 1% level of precision may be sensitive to these FV artifacts. Finally, we present an update of the CalLat prediction of 𝑔 𝐴 in the isospin limit with subpercent precision, 𝑔$^{QCD}_{𝐴}$ = 1.2674⁢(96).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Developing New Beam Constraints to Improve Sterile Neutrino Searches at NOvA

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment utilizing two functionally identical liquid scintillator detectors located 14 mrad off-axis from the NuMI beam at Fermilab. The position of the Near Detector (ND), 1 km from the neutrino production target, means it sees a range of off-axis angles (12.6-17.2 mrad), resulting in a noticeable energy gradient across the detector face. In addition, the neutrino production points vary widely along the decay pipe, which leads to a distribution of true neutrino baselines (L), and limits the sensitivity of our current sterile neutrino searches. This work presents a new "baseline reconstruction" technique designed to exploit our off-axis position to triangulate the precise origin of neutrinos within the NuMI beamline. By projecting the total momentum vector of Charged Current (CC) and Neutral Current (NC) interactions back to the central beam axis, we estimate the individual baseline for each event. We describe the technique, evaluate its performance, and demonstrate how this can improve the sensitivity of future searches for sterile neutrinos through reduced flux systematic uncertainties and improved L/E resolution.

Burns, Jessica [Cincinnati U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Smart Home Privacy: A Tutorial on Local Differential Privacy Techniques for Frequency and Mean Estimation

The ubiquity of Internet of Things (IoT) systems has seamlessly integrated into our daily lives, particularly in smart homes where devices continuously monitor and optimize our living environments. These systems significantly contribute to home automation, energy efficiency, and overall comfort. However, this widespread connectivity poses inherent risks linked to the streaming of sensitive household data, necessitating robust privacy preservation mechanisms. This tutorial systematically examines privacy preservation through local differential privacy (LDP), with a particular focus on frequency and mean estimation techniques for smart home applications. Here, we present a comprehensive taxonomy of smart home data formats and provide detailed implementation guidance for event-based and w-event LDP mechanisms. Through practical examples using smart thermostats and HVAC systems, we demonstrate how these techniques can be effectively deployed in real-world scenarios. The tutorial concludes by examining emerging research directions, including adaptive privacy budgets and federated learning approaches, establishing a foundation for privacy-preserving smart home deployments.

Kotevska, Olivera [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of nonflow estimation methods and uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Collective anisotropic flow, where particles are correlated over the entire event, is a prominent phenomenon in relativistic heavy-ion collisions and is sensitive to the properties of the matter created in those collisions. It is often measured by two- and multi-particle correlations and is therefore contaminated by nonflow, those genuine few-body correlations unrelated to the global event-wise correlations. Many methods have been devised to estimate nonflow contamination with various degrees of successes and difficulties. Here, we review those methods pedagogically, discussing the pros and cons of each method, and give examples of ballpark estimate of nonflow contamination and associated uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. We hope such a review of the various nonflow estimation methods in a single place would prove helpful to future researches.

Feng, Yicheng (ORCID:0000000169010870)↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-medium bottomonium properties from lattice NRQCD calculations with extended meson operators

We calculate the temperature dependence of bottomonium correlators in (2+1)-flavor lattice QCD with the aim to constrain in-medium properties of bottomonia at high temperature. The lattice calculations are performed using HISQ action with physical strange quark mass and light quark masses twenty times smaller than the strange quark mass at two lattice spacings a = 0.0493 fm and 0.0602 fm, and temporal extents N τ = 16 − 30, corresponding to the temperatures T = 133 − 250 MeV. We use a tadpole-improved NRQCD action including spin-dependent v 6 corrections for the heavy quarks and extended meson operators in order to be sensitive to in-medium properties of the bottomonium states of interest. We find that within estimated errors the bottomonium masses do not change compared to their vacuum values for all temperatures under our consideration; however, we find different nonzero widths for the various bottomonium states.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging reaction theory and nuclear structure in $π^±-$ 48 Ca scattering

Here, we extend the pion-nucleus multiple-scattering framework to include detailed second-order rescattering dynamics for nuclei with nonzero isospin. To account for intermediate charge-exchange and nucleon spin-flip effects, we develop a scattering potential that depends on the one- and two-body densities of the target nucleus. We compute one-body densities from coupled-cluster theory and two-body densities within the Hartree-Fock approximation. To estimate theoretical uncertainties, we employ modern nuclear Hamiltonians derived from chiral effective field theory. While the sensitivity to nuclear structure details is mild, second-order corrections are found to be sizable and essential for accurately reproducing differential cross sections measured in 𝜋 ± − 48 Ca elastic scattering within the Δ⁡(1232)-resonance region.

cluster models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Full Scale HEPA Filter Encapsulation in Ultra-High-Performance Grout - Proof of Concept

The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) currently being constructed to treat radioactive waste, includes vitrification facilities for both the high-level waste (HLW) and low activity waste (LAW) fractions. Operation of the WTP will produce contaminated high-efficiency particulate air filters (HEPA), as part of the solid secondary waste (SSW) stream. The HEPA filters receive off-gas from the vessel vent header and primary off-gas treatment system in LAW Facility and remove particulate contaminants including 99 Tc and 129 I salts. The current disposal method for HEPA filters is encapsulation in metal containers using cementitious material (CM) and disposal in the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). Results from the 2017 IDF Performance Assessment (PA) WRPS (2018) demonstrated that while compliance is maintained for the 1000 year compliance period mandated by DOE O 435.1 and its accompanying manual, release of constituents from the HEPA filters result in exceedance of the performance objective imposed as the groundwater regulatory limit at later times. For example, at about 1500 years post-closure, solid secondary waste (SSW), including HEPA filters is predicted to become a dominant contributor to 99 Tc release and over the 10,000-year sensitivity analysis period, SSW is the dominant contributor of 129 I release to the groundwater. The estimated release could potentially be reduced if the HEPA filters are not compacted and waste containers could be distributed throughout a large space, thereby diluting the contaminant release. Additionally, a better cementitious material could be used to encapsulate the HEPA filters. One alternative method for disposal of contaminated HEPA filters is encapsulation of the filters in ultra high-performance grout (UHPG). UHPG is a variation of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) is commonly used in the prestressed concrete industry for large structural members. Recent studies of UHPG show it has excellent properties for containing radionuclides such as 99 Tc and 129 I Nichols and Kaplan (2021). This report presents the results of the first attempt to encapsulate a clean, full-size HEPA filter in UHPG and evaluate the effectiveness of the immobilization process and final waste form. A full-scale proof-of-concept simulated waste form was prepared by encapsulating a HEPA filter in a 110-gallon stainless steel (SS) drum using UHPG. A change from Type I/II PC to Type 1L PLC was made after American Rock Products informed the team that they would no longer be using Type I/II by the end of 2024 and the northwest was phasing out Type I/II PC overall. Type I/II PC used in previous studies of UHPG for encapsulation (Nichols and Kaplan 2021). After the UHPG was cured both the scaled mockup and the full-scale simulated waste forms were sectioned for visual examination. UHPG completely encapsulated the filters and bonded to the external surfaces of materials comprising the filters. No cracks were observed in the sectioned waste forms.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Characterization and Techno-Economic Analysis of Enhanced Geothermal and Closed-Loop Systems in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Colorado

This report provides details of reservoir characterization and techno-economic analysis for enhanced geothermal systems and closed-loop geothermal systems in the Denver-Julesburg Basin Wattenberg area. The analysis contributes to the Geothermal Limitless Approach to Drilling Efficiencies (GLADE) project, a multi-institutional research initiative focused on advancing geothermal energy development by reducing drilling costs and improving the rate of penetration. The GLADE project brings together national laboratories, academic institutions, and industry partners, including the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office, Occidental Petroleum, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Colorado School of Mines, Louisiana State University, Texas A&M University, and several drilling technology companies. As part of this effort, NLR developed and applied slender-body theory modeling tools and the GEOPHIRES simulator to support techno-economic analysis. The slender-body theory wellbore simulator evaluated thermal performance in U-loop, Eavor-type multilateral, and enhanced geothermal system well configurations. Results indicated that an optimized single U-loop design delivers an outlet temperature of 168.8 degrees Celsius,stabilizing at a final outlet temperature of 135.3 degrees Celsius. Heat production also improved significantly, with an average thermal output of 16.9 MWth and a final thermal output of 11.0 MWth. These results provided critical baseline data for selecting optimized systems for techno-economic analysis. Building on these outputs, NLR applied the GEOPHIRES techno-economic simulator to estimate the levelized cost of electricity for both the Eavor multilateral and enhanced geothermal systems. The sensitivity analysis showed that drilling costs exert a particularly strong impact on the levelized cost of electricity of multilateral systems. Therefore, advances in drilling technology and improved drilling rates could yield significant gains in the economic performance of these systems. In this context, the GLADE project directly supports the U.S. Department of Energy's mission to reduce the cost of geothermal energy and accelerate the deployment of next-generation geothermal technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for parity violation in SDSS DR16 Lyman-α forest data

The four-point correlation function is the lowest order correlation function for scalar fields that can be used to probe statistical parity invariance in an isotropic universe. There are intriguing claims of detection of parity violation in the 4-point function of BOSS galaxy clustering data. We apply the same estimator to the public SDSS Data Release 16 Lyman-α forest data. Lyman-α forest data probes a different redshift range and is sensitive to a different density regime using a completely different technique. A detection would therefore be a strong indication of new physics. We identify an accurate covariance matrix as a crucial impediment to performing this measurement accurately, consistent with existing literature on galaxy 4-point function. Here, we discuss several approaches to estimating the covariance matrix, several of which produce spurious detection. Using a robust, but very suboptimal, covariance matrix derived from subsample bootstrapping, we find no evidence for parity violation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗