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At least 145 records · Page 8

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

A Eulerian three-fluid flow framework for the study of fuel dispersal behavior under loss-of-coolant accident conditions

As the nuclear industry explores new fuel designs to accommodate increased burnup, studying fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents is essential for ensuring the safe operation of light-water reactors. Here, this study presents a computational model to simulate the intricate three-phase flow dynamics of fuel dispersal following cladding breach, where solid fuel particles and carrier fission gases interact with the surrounding liquid or gas medium. The model utilizes a Eulerian three-fluid framework to depict the phase interaction within interpenetrating continua, treating fragmented fuel as granular material. Closure relationships for bulk-flow properties of the solid phase and detailed interfacial exchange terms in high-temperature, high-speed gas-solid-liquid flow scenarios are proposed. The model was validated using adiabatic experimental results in the literature, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched probability density functions reported in experimental studies. Key highlights of this study include the theoretical description of a coupled three-phase flow with phase change, interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and insights into the transient behavior of gas-solid-liquid phase dynamics during a simulated high-speed dispersal event.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A realistic guide misalignment model for the Second Target Station instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Second Target Station (STS) at the Spallation Neutron Source, including a suite of initial instrument concepts, are being designed in Oak Ridge. The moderator size at STS is significantly smaller than that of the First Target Station, making the guide misalignment a more prominent concern. Here a realistic misalignment model based on Monte Carlo neutron ray tracing simulation was developed to evaluate the impacts of both the random misalignment and floor settlement on the performance of a toy model of 150 m straight guide system, and MENUS, an STS instrument concept with a typical guide design of two opposing Montel mirrors. The study shows that longer instruments, and instruments with complex curved mirrors/guides are sensitive to significant performance penalties due to misalignments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Computational model development and validation of fuel dispersal phenomena

As the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to extend the rod average burnup limits in existing pressurized water reactors, it becomes imperative to investigate the safety implications associated with high burnup fuel fragmentation and the potential dispersal of fragmented fuel into the reactor coolant system. Additionally, as there is a growing interest in transitioning to new nuclear fuel designs to accommodate higher fuel burnup levels, it becomes essential to conduct studies on fuel behavior during design basis accident scenarios, particularly during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident, in order to ensure the safe operation of light-water reactors. The present study develops a computational model to simulate the complex three-phase flow of the fuel dispersal phenomena that occur following a breach in the cladding, when the stream of solid fuel particles and carrier fission gas stream may interact with the surrounding liquid medium. Furthermore, the proposed framework considers the solid phase as discrete Lagrangian particles while the interpenetrating gas–liquid continuum is modeled using a Eulerian framework. The developed simulation framework is validated with experimental results performed in a separate-effect test facility by comparing predicted particle settlement locations with the experimental observations reported in the literature. Key highlights of this study include the interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and the three-phase flow coupling strategy. Also discussed are the gas–liquid hydrodynamics and the behavior of particles as they are transported through the gas and liquid phases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparative life cycle assessment of remote potable water supply for the Department of Defense

The Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies, including relief organizations, require potable water for remote missions around the globe. As part of recent initiative by the U.S. Federal government through Executive Order 14057, the DOD has been instructed to investigate the sustainability of operations and practices within the context of climate change. One such practice that needs to be addressed is the procurement of potable water, an essential requirement of any remote mission or location. Currently, there are three primary means of procuring potable water at remote locations: bottled water, on-site purification, or tie-in to existing, local infrastructure. The first two operations are often considered the most secure options, but have sustainability concerns. The purpose of this study is to compare the environmental impacts of bottled water procurement versus on-site treatment via a mobile Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU), which uses multiple levels of filtration to make potable water from a local source. A cradle-to-gate assessment was developed for both systems to compare different options for potable water supply. An in person inventory was paired with data taken from the Ecoinvent 3.8 database to directly compare the two systems. The two systems are compared on a 5-year timeline to analyze the environmental impact of repeated bottled water transport versus diesel generator-fueled on-site treatment. Across all impact categories, the results indicate that high energy costs of the reverse osmosis process have significantly less impact on the environment than the repetitive transport and procurement of bottled water. The results of the study have important implications for advancing sustainable operations for remote communities or temporary settlements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct numerical simulation of hypersonic turbulent boundary layers: effect of spatial evolution and Reynolds number

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the spatial evolution of flat-plate zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers over long streamwise domains ( >300δ i , with δ i the inflow boundary-layer thickness) at three different Mach numbers, 2.5, 4.9 and 10.9, with the surface temperatures ranging from quasiadiabatic to highly cooled conditions. The settlement of turbulence statistics into a fully developed equilibrium state of the turbulent boundary layer has been carefully monitored, either based on the satisfaction of the von Kármán integral equation or by comparing runs with different inflow turbulence generation techniques. The generated DNS database is used to characterize the streamwise evolution of multiple important variables in the high-Mach-number, cold-wall regime, including the skin friction, the Reynolds analogy factor, the shape factor, the Reynolds stresses, and the fluctuating wall quantities. The data confirm the validity of many classic and newer compressibility transformations at moderately high Reynolds numbers (up to friction Reynolds number Re τ ≈1200 ) and show that, with proper scaling, the sizes of the near-wall streaks and superstructures are insensitive to the Mach number and wall cooling conditions. The strong wall cooling in the hypersonic cold-wall case is found to cause a significant increase in the size of the near-wall turbulence eddies (relative to the boundary-layer thickness), which leads to a reduced-scale separation between the large and small turbulence scales, and in turn to a lack of an outer peak in the spanwise spectra of the streamwise velocity in the logarithmic region.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Regional Subsidence Analysis Through a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework Based on Breakage Mechanics

Although poroelastic models are often used to explain the delay between subsurface fluid depletion and ground subsidence, inelastic compaction involving permanent changes of rock microstructure may exacerbate hydro-mechanical coupling, thus influencing the interpretation of measurements and long-term forecasts. Here, a multi-scale modeling approach is discussed, which accounts for the inherent connection between rock microstructure, hydraulic conductivity, and pore compaction. A constitutive model built within the framework of breakage mechanics is proposed to link the hydraulic conductivity of granular rocks with inelastic deformations and changes in grading caused by injection-depletion cycles at stress levels far from yielding. The proposed model has been incorporated into large-scale simulation frameworks, thus enabling the spatiotemporal mapping of regional subsidence through a hybrid, semi-analytical approach. Numerical results based on this strategy show that the model allows isolating near-field and far-field effects into the computation of land subsidence and can generate forecasts for different modeling scenarios (e.g., elastic and inelastic compaction, constant permeability, and concurrent change of compressibility and permeability). In particular, examples of simulations for the case of the Groningen gas field are discussed, showing the model capabilities to use both field measurements and laboratory tests for the generation of reasonable subsidence maps, without expensive computational costs. Results indicate that ignoring coupled inelastic effects has major consequences on the predicted timescale of subsidence. Specifically, while all the model scenarios produced similar long-term ground settlements, those ignoring breakage-dependent permeability changes result in a variation of the temporal window of residual subsidence of the order of several decades.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of grain dissolution on sloping ground

The static and dynamic stability of natural or constructed slopes can be affected by dissolution or dissolution-like phenomena. Their underlying mechanisms, however, remain unclear. New experimental results and discrete element simulations provide particle-level and macroscale information on the consequences of mineral dissolution on slope behavior. At the microscale, load-carrying grain arches develop around dissolving particles, the porosity increases, and contact force chains evolve to form a honeycomb topology. At the macroscale, while vertical settlements are the prevailing deformation pattern, lateral granular movements that create mass wasting are prominent in sloping ground, even under the quasi-static granular loss. Horizontal grain displacement is maximum at the surface and decreases linearly with the distance from the slope surface to become zero at the bottom boundaries, much like vertical granular displacement along the depth. Sediments with smaller friction angles and steeper slopes experience greater displacement, both vertically and horizontally. Slopes become flatter after dissolution, with the reduction in slope angle directly related to the loss in ground elevation, ΔH/H o . Yet, because of the porous fabric that results from dissolution, vertical shortening is less than the upper bound, estimated from the loss in the solid mass fraction, ΔH/H o ≈SF. Under water-saturated conditions, the post-dissolution fabric may lead to sudden undrained shear and slope slide.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California

Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California. More than three-quarters of extreme-impact wildfires—defined as the top 20 largest, most destructive, or deadliest events on record—originated within 1 km from the wildland-urban interface. The deadliest and most destructive wildfires—90% of which were human-caused—primarily occurred in the fall, while the largest wildfires—56% of which were human-caused—mostly took place in the summer. By integrating human activity and climate change impacts, we provide a holistic understanding of human-centric wildfire risk, crucial for policy development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Ten years of Gulf Coast ecosystem restoration projects since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

A decade since coastal restoration began across U.S. Gulf of Mexico states after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, it is timely to examine its collective effects relative to intended outcomes. Through 2021, allocated funds for 570 projects by state, federal, non-profit, and other entities approached half the unprecedented recovery settlements. The need for synthesis of restoration results to inform further expenditures is urgent. Yet, unlike the western and eastern U.S. coasts, this region lacks an entity charged with conducting environmental synthesis. Synthesis of the cumulative effects of large-scale restoration will encompass three challenging components: (1) understanding and accounting for synergistic and antagonistic effects; (2) incorporating long-term environmental trends and acute events; and (3) addressing the relative scale of restoration effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wealth inequality in the prehispanic northern US Southwest: from Malthus to Tyche

Persistent differences in wealth and power among prehispanic Pueblo societies are visible from the late AD 800s through the late 1200s, after which large portions of the northern US Southwest were depopulated. In this paper we measure these differences in wealth using Gini coefficients based on house size, and show that high Ginis (large wealth differences) are positively related to persistence in settlements and inversely related to an annual measure of the size of the unoccupied dry-farming niche. We argue that wealth inequality in this record is due first to processes inherent in village life which have internally different distributions of the most productive maize fields, exacerbated by the dynamics of systems of balanced reciprocity; and second to decreasing ability to escape village life owing to shrinking availability of unoccupied places within the maize dry-farming niche as villages get enmeshed in regional systems of tribute or taxation. We embed this analytical reconstruction in the model of an ‘Abrupt imposition of Malthusian equilibrium in a natural-fertility, agrarian society’ proposed by Puleston et al. (Puleston C, Tuljapurkar S, Winterhalder B. 2014 PLoS ONE 9, e87541 (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087541)), but show that the transition to Malthusian dynamics in this area is not abrupt but extends over centuries. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of inequality’.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Endogenous Interface Pricing for Consistent Transmission–Distribution Co-Optimization With Discrete Distribution Controls

This paper proposes an endogenous interface pricing model for day-ahead transmission–distribution co-optimization that co-determines the interface locational marginal price (LMP) and the transmission–distribution exchange, ensuring price–dispatch consistency while optimally scheduling discrete distribution controls. The formulation couples a DC optimal power flow (OPF) with a branch-flow AC OPF that schedules distributed energy resources (DERs), tap-changer settings, capacitor banks (CBs), and multi-period energy storage systems (ESSs) under feeder voltage and current limits, and is solved as a mixed-integer second-order cone program (MISOCP). In a T14–D33 system, coordinated device scheduling recovers about 90% of the distribution-to-transmission export achievable in a reference case that ignores distribution network (DN) limits, while satisfying a 1.05 p.u. voltage upper bound. In a T39–D34/D37/D123 system, a sequential decoupled benchmark produces interface LMP distortions up to 12.5% and a 7.28% mismatch in net export energy, whereas the proposed model removes these distortions and the associated settlement mismatches. Second-order cone (SOC) relaxation gaps remain below $10^{-3}$ in all cases.

Noh, Seung-Gil↗

Equitable Transactive Market Design to Coordinate Networked Microgrids with Mixed Ownership

This paper presents an inter-microgrid peer-topeer (P2P) transactive market mechanism to support the coordination of multiple microgrids in a mixed-ownership environment, while enabling prosumers to actively participate in the market to get their own benefits. An equitable P2P transactive energy market is designed, in which the energy burden to customers within microgrids is fairly distributed by leveraging a peer-to-peer communication network among MG owners and the distribution system operator (DSO). To reach the market settlement, a consensus-based distributed optimization algorithm is introduced to enable each MG owner and the DSO to distributedly determine the cleared price which is compensated by a household-income-based discount factor to encourage the energy-burden equity among customers in networked microgrids service territory. Numerical results on the modified 123 node test feeder including 6 microgrids are used to demonstrate the operation of the introduced equitable transactive energy market.

Vu, Thanh Long↗

Reestablishing larval connectivity in an estuarine landscape: the importance of shoreline and subtidal oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) in a comprehensive oyster restoration program

The decline of oyster reefs in estuaries has resulted from a combination of chronic and acute disturbances. The loss has resulted in decreased yield for the oyster fishery as well as a decline in ecological benefits that has led to increased efforts to restore oyster reefs. The need for scientific guidance in accomplishing these restoration goals has become even more pressing in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico in the wake of injury to oyster reefs resulting from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Restoration of both the shallow, marsh-fringing oyster aggregations and the deeper subtidal oyster reefs is necessary. Historically, fringing oysters have been overlooked in the oyster habitat landscape because of their limited commercial value. Here, we use a biophysical transport model to examine the transport and settlement of oyster larvae in known oyster reefs along the coast of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico. The modeling demonstrated that the majority of oyster larvae settle within the embayment (>98%) or sub-basin (>65%) of their origin. Additionally, the model demonstrated the importance of fringing oysters as a source of larvae to re-seed other fringing oysters along marsh edges as well as subtidal oyster reefs. We conclude that networks of reefs, including both fringing oyster habitat and subtidal oyster reefs within sub-basins, are necessary to provide resilience to the population at the sub-basin level. Finally, we conclude that fringing oyster habitat may serve as an archipelago-like network to enhance larval supply and connectivity for oysters throughout the mesosaline portions of estuaries.

ADCIRC↗