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NdFeB Permanent Magnet Uses, Projected Growth Rates and Nd Plus Dy Demands across End-Use Sectors through 2050: A Review

Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

A Wind-powered Rover for a Low-Cost Venus Mission

Venus, with a surface temperature of 450 C and an atmospheric pressure 90 times higher than that of the Earth, is a difficult target for exploration. However, high-temperature electronics and power systems now being developed make it possible that future missions may be able to operate in the Venus environment. Powering such a rover within the scope of a Discovery class mission will be difficult, but harnessing Venus' surface winds provides a possible way to keep a powered rover small and light. This project scopes out the feasibility of a wind-powered rover for Venus surface missions. Two rover concepts, a land-sailing rover and a wind-turbine-powered rover, were considered. The turbine-powered rover design is selected as being a low-risk and low-cost strategy. Turbine detailed analysis and design shows that the turbine can meet mission requirements across the desired range of wind speeds by utilizing three constant voltage generators at fixed gear ratios.

Benigno, Gina↗

2022 Small Turbine Certification Awardee: Eocycle America Corporation

Eocycle's Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) award will fund certification testing of the company's EOX S-16 25-kW turbine to make sure it meets UL electrical safety standards. In addition to validating the turbine's reliability and anticipated reduced maintenance requirements, UL certification will also boost consumer confidence in the technology, with the potential to increase the market for the entire small-wind industry.

Competitiveness Improvement Project↗

Offshore Testing Facility – Small Scale Turbine Testing and Development Final Technical Report

In July 2010 funding for an award was made available under contract DE-EE0004200 which is the focus of this report. Under this funding, The U.S. Department of Energy’s (USDOE) designated Florida Atlantic University’s (FAU) state of Florida marine renewable energy focused Center of Excellence for Ocean Energy Technology as the Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy Center (SNMREC). The award was advertised in 2008, when the USDOE Wind and Water Program issued a funding opportunity announcement (DE-PS36-08GO98030) to establish university-led National Marine Renewable Energy Centers (NMRECs). Although FAU was selected for this opportunity, funding did not become available until 2010 at which time three of the original five years of performance remained and scope was adjusted accordingly. This award was divided into two phases. The first phase focused on marine energy turbine system enhancement and research while the second phase aimed to advance offshore capabilities and testing opportunities for small-scale demonstration turbines. The project’s objective was to increase the nation’s capabilities, knowledge, and competitiveness with respect to ocean current energy technology. This project successfully achieved these goals by advancing marine energy technology testing opportunities and capabilities. This report details these accomplishments by phase and task. Descriptions include any relevant results, challenges, achievements, and outcomes. Additional intellectual products and publications are listed in the Appendix where detailed technical explanations can be found. Further, because this award designated SNMREC as a USDOE center, it challenges FAU to continue providing value for the marine energy sector in the long term. The direct accomplishments of this project, though noteworthy, are also the seeds for a greater partnership between the USDOE and FAU. SNMREC, leveraging its designation as an NMREC under this award, will expand these contributions for decades to come as a coordinated sustainable program that can serve the marine energy sector’s needs as they arise.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Mars Technologies Spawn Durable Wind Turbines

Sometimes referred to as regenerative life support systems, the concept includes an enclosed self-sufficient habitat that can independently support life for years on end. Such a system aims not only to produce its own food and water but to purify air and convert waste into useful byproducts. In the early 1990s, NASA was planning for an extended stay on Mars, and Bubenheim and his Ames colleagues were concentrating efforts on creating a complete ecological system to sustain human crewmembers during their time on the Red Planet. The main barrier to developing such a system, he says, is energy. Mars has no power plants, and a regenerative system requires equipment that runs on electricity to do everything from regulating humidity in the atmosphere to monitoring the quality of recycled water. The Ames group started looking at how to best make power on a planet that is millions of miles away from Earth and turned to a hybrid concept combining wind and solar power technologies. The reason was that Mars experiences frequent dust storms that can block nearly all sunlight. When theres a dust storm and the wind is blowing, the wind system could be the dominant power source. When the wind is not blowing and the sun is out, photovoltaics could be the dominant source, says Bubenheim.To develop and test the wind power technology, Ames turned to a remote, harsh environment here on Earth: the South Pole. The South Pole was a really good analog for Mars, says Bubenheim. The technology features for going to Mars were the same technology features needed to make something work at the South Pole.Around the same time that NASA started investigating energy technologies for the Red Planet, the National Science Foundation (NSF) was working on a redesign of their station at the South Pole. To power its operations, NSF used fuel that it flew to the remote location, but the Foundation recognized the benefits of also using onsite renewable energy technologies. In the winter they have small crews and their power requirements are less, says Bubenheim. In the summers, they bring in larger groups and photovoltaics could supply a lot of power. Using renewable energy technology could be a way of reducing the amount of fuel they have to fly in.Technology TransferTo advance wind turbine technology to meet the requirements of extremely harsh environments like that on Mars, Ames partnered with NSF and the Department of Energy. It was clear that a lot of the same features were also desirable for the cold regions of the Earth, says Bubenheim. NASA took the leadership on the team because we had the longest-term technology a Mars turbine. Years before, NSF had worked with a company called Northern Power Systems (NPS), based in Barre, Vermont, to deploy a 3-kilowatt wind turbine on Black Island off the coast of Antarctica.Sometimes referred to as regenerative life support systems, the concept includes an enclosed self-sufficient habitat that can independently support life for years on end. Such a system aims not only to produce its own food and water but to purify air and convert waste into useful byproducts. In the early 1990s, NASA was planning for an extended stay on Mars, and Bubenheim and his Ames colleagues were concentrating efforts on creating a complete ecological system to sustain human crewmembers during their time on the Red Planet. The main barrier to developing such a system, he says, is energy. Mars has no power plants, and a regenerative system requires equipment that runs on electricity to do everything from regulating humidity in the atmosphere to monitoring the quality of recycled water. The Ames group started looking at how to best make power on a planet that is millions of miles away from Earth and turned to a hybrid concept combining wind and solar power technologies. The reason was that Mars experiences frequent dust storms that can block nearly all sunlight. When there's a dust storm and the wind is blowing, the wind system could be the dominant power source. When the wind is not blowing and the sun is out, photovoltaics could be the dominant source, says Bubenheim.To develop and test the wind power technology, Ames turned to a remote, harsh environment here on Earth: the South Pole. The South Pole was a really good analog for Mars, says Bubenheim. The technology features for going to Mars were the same technology features needed to make something work at the South Pole.Around the same time that NASA started investigating energy technologies for the Red Planet, the National Science Foundation (NSF) was working on a redesign of their station at the South Pole. To power its operations, NSF used fuel that it flew to the remote location, but the Foundation recognized the benefits of also using onsite renewable energy technologies. In the winter they have small crews and their power requirements are less, says Bubenheim. In the summers, they bring in larger groups and photovoltaics could supply a lot of power. Using renewable energy technology could be a way of reducing the amount of fuel they have to fly in.Technology Transfer To advance wind turbine technology to meet the requirements of extremely harsh environments like that on Mars, Ames partnered with NSF and the Department of Energy. It was clear that a lot of the same features were also desirable for the cold regions of the Earth, says Bubenheim. NASA took the leadership on the team because we had the longest-term technology a Mars turbine.

Mars Technologies↗

Aerodynamic and production comparison of wind farms with downwind versus conventional upwind turbines

Ever-increasing turbine scales and their associated logistical challenges have reignited questions about the performance of downwind rotor configurations. A particular potential benefit of downwind rotor configurations is the farm-scale power increase that may be conferred by tilt-driven downward wake entrainment and associated wake recovery. In this work, a comprehensive aerodynamic analysis is carried out to understand the mechanisms for wake entrainment and recovery across a spectrum of velocity and inflow alignment conditions on a small, structured farm in order to understand the impact of downwind rotors on farm production. The results show that the benefits demonstrated previously in the literature for downwind-rotor farms in aligned flows are fragile, and, outside of strong farm/flow alignment conditions, power production benefits for small farms with downwind rotor configurations are significantly if not completely mitigated by misalignment effects. The work indicates that farm-scale benefits for downwind rotors must be realized either from large-scale entrainment benefits, with more exotic farm arrangements that can take advantage of the aerodynamic effects, or from beneficial fatigue impacts from entrainment of less turbulent outer boundary layer flows.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Addressing deep array effects and impacts to wake steering with the cumulative-curl wake model

Abstract. Wind farm design and analysis heavily rely on computationally efficient engineering models that are evaluated many times to find an optimal solution. A recent article compared the state-of-the-art Gauss-curl hybrid (GCH) model to historical data of three offshore wind farms. Two points of model discrepancy were identified therein: poor wake predictions for turbines experiencing a lot of wakes and wake interactions between two turbines over long distances. The present article addresses those two concerns and presents the cumulative-curl (CC) model. Comparison of the CC model to high-fidelity simulation data and historical data of three offshore wind farms confirms the improved accuracy of the CC model over the GCH model in situations with large wake losses and wake recovery over large inter-turbine distances. Additionally, the CC model performs comparably to the GCH model for single- and fewer-turbine wake interactions, which were already accurately modeled. Lastly, the CC model has been implemented in a vectorized form, greatly reducing the computation time for many wind conditions. The CC model now enables reliable simulation studies for both small and large offshore wind farms at a low computational cost, thereby making it an ideal candidate for wake-steering optimization and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Vibration characteristics of a large wind turbine tower on non-rigid foundations

Vibration characteristics of the Mod-OA wind turbine supported by nonrigid foundations were investigated for a range of soil rigidities. The study shows that the influence of foundation rotation on the fundamental frequency of the wind turbine is quite significant for cohesive soils or loose sand. The reduction in natural frequency can be greater than 20 percent. However, for a foundation resting on well graded, dense granular materials or bedrock, such effect is small and the foundation can be treated as a fixed base.

Yee, S. T.↗

Coupled Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic Hybrid Simulation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

ExaWind at NREL: Upping the Ante

The objective of the ExaWind component of the Exascale Computing Project is to deliver many-turbine blade-resolved simulations in complex terrain. These simulations bring new challenges to both compute and analysis of the resulting data. In this paper/video, we visually explore the impact of ExaWind on wind simulations through two studies of a small wind farm under two atmospheric conditions. We then turn to analysis and review tools that visualization researchers at NREL use to answer the challenges that ExaWind brings.

collaborative visualization↗

Evaluation of the Fitch Wind-Farm Wake Parameterization with Large-Eddy Simulations of Wakes Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Wind-farm parameterizations in weather models can be used to predict both the power output and farm effects on the flow; however, their correctness has not been thoroughly assessed. We evaluate the wind-farm parameterization of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with large-eddy simulations (LES) of the wake performed with the same model. We study the impact on the velocity and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) of inflow velocity, roughness, resolution, number of turbines (one or two), and inversion height and strength. We compare the mesoscale with the LES by spatially averaging the LES within areas correspondent to the mesoscale horizontal spacing: one covering the turbine area and two downwind. We find an excellent agreement of the velocity within the turbine area between the two types of simulations. However, within the same area, we find the largest TKE discrepancies because in mesoscale simulations, the turbine-added TKE has to be highest at the turbine position to be advected downwind. Within the downwind areas, differences between velocities increase as the wake recovers faster in the LES, whereas for the TKE both types of simulations show similar levels. From the various configurations, the impact of inversion height and strength is small for these heights and inversion levels. The highest impact for the one-turbine simulations appears under the low-speed case due to the higher thrust, whereas the impact of resolution is low for the large-eddy simulations but high for the mesoscale simulations. Our findings demonstrate that higher-fidelity simulations are needed to validate wind-farm parameterizations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Numerical calculation of steady inviscid full potential compressible flow about wind turbine blades

The air flow through a propeller-type wind turbine rotor is characterized by three-dimensional rotating cascade effects about the inner portions of the rotor blades and compressibility effects about the tip regions of the blades. In the case of large rotor diameter and/or increased rotor angular speed, the existence of small supersonic zones terminated by weak shocks is possible. An exact nonlinear mathematical model (called a steady Full Potential Equation - FPE) that accounts for the above phenomena has been rederived. An artificially time dependent version of FPE was iteratively solved by a finite volume technique involving an artificial viscosity and a three-level consecutive mesh refinement. The exact boundary conditions were applied by generating a boundary conforming periodic computation mesh.

Dulikravich, D. S.↗

Development and testing of tip devices for horizontal axis wind turbines

A theoretical and field experimental program has been carried out to investigate the use of tip devices on horizontal axis wind turbine rotors. The objective was to improve performance by the reduction of tip losses. While power output can always be increased by a simple radial tip extension, such a modification also results in an increased gale load both because of the extra projected area and longer moment arm. Tip devices have the potential to increase power output without such a structural penalty. A vortex lattice computer model was used to optimize three basic tip configuration types for a 25 kW stall limited commercial wind turbine. The types were a change in tip planform, and a single-element and double-element nonplanar tip extension (winglets). A complete data acquisition system was developed which recorded three wind speed components, ambient pressure, temperature, and turbine output. The system operated unattended and could perform real-time processing of the data, displaying the measured power curve as data accumulated in either a bin sort mode or polynomial curve fit. Approximately 270 hr of perormance data were collected over a three-month period. The sampling interval was 2.4 sec; thrus over 400,000 raw data points were logged. Results for each of the three new tip devices, compared with the original tip, showed a small decrease (of the order of 1 kW) in power output over the measured range of wind speeds from cut-in at about 4 m/s to over 20 m/s, well into the stall limiting region. Changes in orientation and angle-of-attack of the winglets were not made. For aircraft wing tip devices, favorable tip shapes have been reported and it is likely that the tip devices tested in this program did not improve rotor performance because they were not optimally adjusted.

Gyatt, G. W.↗

Geographical variability of summer- and winter-dominant onshore wind

For each geographical region, one of the biggest challenges in reaching a zero-carbon grid is identifying sources of electricity that match the seasonal profile of the load. Summer-dominant solar electricity generation can often be balanced by winter-dominant wind electricity generation. Together with long-duration storage, balanced solar and wind generation are well positioned to provide reliable renewable electricity. However, in some locations the wind may not complement solar energy so well. For example, currently California's wind turbines produce more electricity during summer than winter, raising the question of whether all future wind plants in California will exhibit the same seasonality. As a response to this question, in this paper, we analyzed the generation from existing California wind plants and simulated potential onshore wind resource for the whole state using a metric that reflects the relative wind resource in winter. Our results indicate that the seasonality of the wind can vary for very small spatial difference with more than half of California showing stronger wind resource in the winter compared with the summer despite the current observation of the opposite trend. This study differentiates the seasonality of potential wind resources to inform the creation of a reliable, 100%-renewable-driven grid.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

GRIDCERF - Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility

The Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package is a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers hundreds of individual suitability layers for use with both renewable and non-renewable power plant technology configurations in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software. It also provides pre-compiled technology-specific suitability layers and allows for user customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions. GRIDCERF data can be directly used with the CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) model to site power plants at a 1km resolution. GRIDCERF includes composite technology siting suitability raster layers for the following utility scale technology configurations. Note that, in addition to technology sub-types shown below, various cooling types are also included (recirculating, pond, once-through, recirculating-seawater, dry-hybrid, or dry) for various technologies. Biomass Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Coal Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Natural Gas Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Geothermal Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - Class 1 through Class 5 resource potential Nuclear Gen 2 Light Water Reactor (LWR) Gen 3 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Gen 3 AP1000 Refined Liquids Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Solar Photovoltaic (PV) - for capacity factors in the range of 6-18% Utility-scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) - for capacity factors in the range of 24-46% Tower Wind (Onshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 5-50% 80m hub height 100m hub height 120m hub height 140m hub height Wind (Offshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 25-60% 100m hub height 140m hub height 160m hub height

capacity expansion↗

GRIDCERF - Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility

The Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package is a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers hundreds of individual suitability layers for use with both renewable and non-renewable power plant technology configurations in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software. It also provides pre-compiled technology-specific suitability layers and allows for user customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions. GRIDCERF data can be directly used with the CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) model to site power plants at a 1km resolution. GRIDCERF includes composite technology siting suitability raster layers for the following utility scale technology configurations. Note that, in addition to technology sub-types shown below, various cooling types are also included (recirculating, pond, once-through, recirculating-seawater, dry-hybrid, or dry) for various technologies. Biomass Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Coal Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Natural Gas Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Geothermal Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - Class 1 through Class 5 resource potential Nuclear Gen 2 Light Water Reactor (LWR) Gen 3 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Gen 3 AP1000 Refined Liquids Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Solar Photovoltaic (PV) - for capacity factors in the range of 6-18% Utility-scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) - for capacity factors in the range of 24-46% Tower Wind (Onshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 5-50% 80m hub height 100m hub height 120m hub height 140m hub height Wind (Offshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 25-60% 100m hub height 140m hub height 160m hub height

capacity expansion↗

Fabrication And Evaluation Of Sic/Sic Tubes With Various Fiber Architectures

SiC/SiC composites are excellent material candidates for high temperature applications where the performance requirements are high strength, high creep-rupture resistance, high environmental durability, and high thermal conductivity. In the past, the NASA UEET program has demonstrated fabrication of high-performance SiC/SiC flat panels reinforced by Sylramic-iBN SiC fibers. Currently NASA UEET is scaling up this SiC/SiC system by fabrication of more complex shaped components using the same fiber type. This paper reports the effects of various fiber architectures on the processing, mechanical, and durability behavior of small-diameter 0.5" ID SiC/SiC tubes, which are potential sub-elements for leading edges and cooling channels in turbine vanes and blades. Nine different fiber architectures were utilized for construction of seamless tube preforms, from simple 2D jelly-rolling to complex braiding, pin-weaving, filament-winding and 3D orthogonal weaving with approximately 5% fibers in the thru-thickness direction. Using the BN interphase and Sic matrix processing steps established for the flat panels, SiC/SiC tubes were fabricated with wall thicknesses of approximately 60 mils and total fiber fractions of approximately 35%. The "D" split ring tests for hoop tensile properties, micro-structural examinations for relationship between fiber architecture formation and matrix infiltration, and the low-pressure burner rig tests for the high temperature durability under thru-thickness thermal gradient were conducted. The better matrix infiltration and higher hoop strength were achieved using the tri-axial braided and the three-float pin woven SiC/SiC tubes. In general, it needs not only higher hoop direction fibers but also axial direction fibers for the higher hoop strength and the better infiltration, respectively. These results are analyzed to offer general guidelines for selecting fiber pre-form architectures and SiC/SiC processes that maximize tube hoop strength, thru-thickness thermal conductivity, and burner-rig durability under a high thermal gradient.

Yun, H. M.↗

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

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