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Contributions of the ARM Program to Radiative Transfer Modeling for Climate and Weather Applications

Accurate climate and weather simulations must account for all relevant physical processes and their complex interactions. Each of these atmospheric, ocean, and land processes must be considered on an appropriate spatial and temporal scale, which leads these simulations to require a substantial computational burden. One especially critical physical process is the flow of solar and thermal radiant energy through the atmosphere, which controls planetary heating and cooling and drives the large-scale dynamics that moves energy from the tropics toward the poles. Radiation calculations are therefore essential for climate and weather simulations, but are themselves quite complex even without considering the effects of variable and inhomogeneous clouds. Clear-sky radiative transfer calculations have to account for thousands of absorption lines due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases, which are irregularly distributed across the spectrum and have shapes dependent on pressure and temperature. The line-by-line (LBL) codes that treat these details have a far greater computational cost than can be afforded by global models. Therefore, the crucial requirement for accurate radiation calculations in climate and weather prediction models must be satisfied by fast solar and thermal radiation parameterizations with a high level of accuracy that has been demonstrated through extensive comparisons with LBL codes. See attachment for continuation.

climatology↗

A model of Saturn's seasonal stratosphere at the time of the Voyager encounters

A polar-equatorial climate model by Cess and Cladwell (1979) is extended to all latitudes of Saturn. Modifications for solar absorption within the stratosphere are made in the extension to intermediate latitudes. The latitudinally and temporally variable effects of sunlight absorption by the rings of Saturn are included in the model. Temperature-latitude profiles for several levels within the Saturn stratosphere are presented for January 1981, which should be directly comparable with Saturn Voyager observations in November 1980 and August 1981. Temperature-pressure profiles for latitudes +30 degrees and -25 degrees are provided, which correspond to the planned points at which radio equipment aboard Voyager II will produce occultation observations.

Carlson, B. E.↗

Technical Note: A Time-Dependent I(sub 0) Correction for Solar Occultation Instruments

Solar occultation has proven to be a reliable technique for the measurement of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere. NASA's Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE, SAGE II, and SAGE III) together have provided over 25 years of quality solar occultation data, a data record which has been an important resource for the scientific exploration of atmospheric composition and climate change. Herein, we describe an improvement to the processing of SAGE data that corrects for a previously uncorrected short-term timedependence in the calibration function. The variability relates to the apparent rotation of the scanning track with respect to the face of the sun due to the motion of the satellite. Correcting for this effect results in a decrease in the measurement noise in the Level 1 line-of-sight optical depth measurements of approximately 40% in the middle and upper stratospheric SAGE II and III where it has been applied. The technique is potentially useful for any scanning solar occultation instrument, and suggests further improvement for future occultation measurements if a full disk imaging system can be included.

Burton, Sharon P.↗

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗

The Solar Clock

The Sun is powered by a very stable source of fusion energy in its core that radiates that energy outward in a constant flow. Yet it has a cycle of magnetic dynamo activity whose strength and duration are variable. This variability, which affects the Earth's ‘space climate', points to temporal changes in the convective and diffusive transport of magnetic flux above the tachocline, where the flux is generated. The longest record we have of this variability is the time series of Sunspot Numbers (SSN). This record suggests that the interior of the Sun follows a clocklike magnetic flux production cycle with a length of close to 11.05 yr. The variations in sunspot cycle duration, as well as the sunspot number rise and fall times, their hemispheric asymmetries, and the maximum sunspot numbers of the individual cycles, are likely produced in the process of the magnetic flux transport. Helioseismology continues to shed more light on the convection zone variabilities, including the ‘torsional oscillations' that seem to have a special connection to the emerging strong magnetic fluxes that produce the sunspots. These new observations may eventually lead to an explanation for the surprisingly good correlation between the rate of sunspot appearance and the maximum sunspot number, and to a better understanding of the relationship between the solar dynamo and the sunspot number cycle. Better understanding of the polar regions awaits long-term monitoring with a polar solar mission. Better predictions of nearterm space weather could be obtained from a permanent L5 monitor.

C T Russell↗

The sensitivity of runoff generation to spatial snowpack uniformity in an alpine watershed: Green Lakes Valley, Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research station

Seasonal water storage in high-elevation alpine catchments are critical sources of water for mountainous regions like the western U.S. The spatial distribution of snow in these topographically complex catchments is primarily governed by orography, solar radiation, and wind redistribution. While the effect of solar shading is relatively consistent from year-to-year, the redistribution of snow due to wind is more variable–capable of producing snowpacks that have varying degrees of uniformity across these hydrologically-important catchments. A reasonable hypothesis is that a warmer climate will cause snowfall to become more dense (i.e. wetter and heavier), possibly leading to less wind redistribution and thus produce a more uniformly distributed snowpack across the landscape. In this study, we investigate the role of increasingly uniform spatial snowpack distributions on streamflow generation in the Green Lakes Valley Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, within the headwaters of the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado. A set of idealized hydrologic simulation experiments driven by reconstructed snowpacks spanning 2001–2014 show that more a more uniform spatial snowpack distribution leads to an earlier melt-out of31 days on average and tends to produce less total streamflow, with maximum decreases as large as 7.5%. Isolating the role of snowpack heterogeneity from melt-season precipitation, we find that snowpack uniformity reduces total streamflow by as much as 13.2%. Reductions in streamflow are largely explained by greater expo-sure to solar radiation in the uniformly distributed case relative to a more heterogeneous snowpack, with this exposure driving shifts towards earlier snowmelt and changes in soil water storage. Overall, we find that the runoff efficiency from shallower snowpacks is more sensitive to the effects of uniformity than deeper snowpacks, which has potential implications for a warming climate where shallower snowpacks and enhanced sensitivities may be present.

Alpine catchment↗

An assessment of thermal, wind, and planetary wave changes in the middle and lower atmosphere due to 11-year UV flux variations

Hines (1974) speculated that solar-induced modifications of the middle and upper atmosphere may alter the transmissivity of the stratosphere to upwardly propagating atmospheric waves. It was suggested that subsequent constructive or destructive interference may result in a change of phase or amplitude of these waves in the troposphere leading to weather or climate changes. The present investigation has the objective to bring together both radiative transfer and planetary wave studies in an effort to assess specifically whether Hines mechanism can be initiated by the solar ultraviolet flux variability assumed to be associated with the 11-year solar cycle. The obtained results suggest that the presently studied mechanism, which links solar-induced zonal wind changes in the stratosphere and mesosphere to planetary wave changes in the troposphere, is not strong enough to cause substantive changes in the troposphere.

Callis, L. B.↗

"Ames Research Center: Linking our Origins to our Future"

Our research traces a path from interstellar materials to inhabited worlds and beyond. We examine how protoplanetary disks evolve and form terrestrial planets, the evolutionary paths of habitable planets, and how external factors (e.g., orbital eccentricity) and internal factors (atmospheric circulation) affect habitability. We trace, spectroscopically and chemically, the evolution of organic molecules from the interstellar medium onto habitable bodies. We examine how membranes might form under prebiotic planetary conditions. We evolve proteins capable of sustaining early metabolism, such as synthesis of biopolymers and transport of ions across membranes. We estimate the frequency of finding a functional prebiotic protein that formed spontaneously. We characterize the formation of diagnostic microbial biosignatures in rock-hosted ecosystems in ophiolite springs as an analog for subsurface life within our solar system, and photosynthetic microbial mats as biota that could be detected on extrasolar planets. We develop quantitative models that simulate energy relationships, biogeochemical cycling, trace gas exchange, and biodiversity. We examine the effects of climate variability on a vegetation-rich biosphere over intermediate time scales, using South American ecosystems as a model. We address natural transport of life beyond its planet of origin, such as on a meteorite, where survivors must withstand radiation, desiccation, and time in transit. We fly organisms and ecosystems in low Earth orbit to test their resistance to space. The Ames E&PO program disseminates these themes to national- and international-scale audiences through partnerships with the California Academy of Sciences, Yellow stone National Park, New York Hall of Science, and several K-14 educational organizations.

DesMarais, David J.↗

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes with the lowest values (of less than 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCL and CLO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (~0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes (i.e., 10-0.5 hPa) with the strongest decrease (of about 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCl and ClO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (about 0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2 hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

Unique NISTAR-Based Climate GCM Diagnostics of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Spectral Absorption Through Longitudinal Data Slicing

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation permit a unique model/data comparison perspective that is not readily available from other satellite data. The key factor is the unique Lissajous orbital viewing geometry from the Lagrangian L1 point, which enables a continuous view of Earth’s sunlit hemisphere. The National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR) is the DSCOVR Mission energy budget instrument, which views the reflected and emitted radiation of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere by means of single pixel active cavity full-spectrum (Band-A, 0.2–100 μm) and filtered solar wavelength (Band-B, 0.2–4.0 μm; and Band-C, 0.7–4.0 μm) radiometer measurements. An additional solar wavelength photodiode channel (0.3–1.1 μm) provides a calibration reference. The objective of this study is the assessment of climate GCM performance via direct model/data comparisons. Such comparisons are difficult due to quasi-chaotic natural variability present in real-world observational data and in climate GCM simulations. This is where the unique DSCOVR viewing geometry makes possible the longitudinal data slicing methodology for more direct model/data comparison. The key point of the longitudinal slicing approach is that data integration over the entire sunlit hemisphere eliminates the quasi-chaotic meteorological weather-scale noise, while preserving intra-seasonal and planetary-scale variability. The rotation of the Earth that retrieves this climate-style, large-scale longitudinal and seasonal variability. The hemispheric averaging is accomplished automatically in NISTAR measurements with its single-pixel view of the Earth. For climate GCMs, this requires implementing the Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling (SHS) scheme to operate on the GCM run-time output data, utilizing the DSCOVR Satellite Ephemeris data to assure precise viewing geometry between NISTAR measurements and GCM output data, while averaging out the meteorological weather noise. However, GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while NISTAR (and EPIC) measurements are near-backscattered radiances. Conversing NISTSR measurements into radiative fluxes cannot be accomplished using NISTAR data alone, even with detailed support from conventional satellite data. But the identical viewing geometry of Earth’s sunlit hemisphere, and synergistic analyses of EPIC data make it feasible for this conversion of NISTAR near-backscatter radiances into radiative fluxes.

deep space climate observatory↗

A Combined Solar and Geomagnetic Index for Thermospheric Climate

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 Â is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. Physically, changes in NO emission are due to changes in temperature, atomic oxygen, and the NO density. These physical changes however are driven by changes in solar irradiance and changes in geomagnetic conditions. We show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (Watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This fit enables several fundamental properties of NO cooling to be determined as well as their variability with time, permitting reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to be solar cycle dependent. This reconstruction provides a long-term time series of an integral radiative constraint on thermospheric climate that can be used to test climate models.

Hunt, Linda↗

Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature

Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, solar constant, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature are analyzed using data obtained by the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. It was found that these parameters were interrelated on interannual time scales, demonstrating that the interannual variability in the earth's climate (i.e., radiation budget) is detectable and observable by current spaceborne instruments. The degree of global interannual variation is on the order of tenths of percent.

Ardanuy, Philip E.↗

A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

We have developed a climate-quality data record of the clear-sky surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm. A climate-data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change. We present daily and monthly Terra MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid within +/-3 hours of 17:00Z or 2:00 PM Local Solar Time. Preliminary validation of the ISTs at Summit Camp, Greenland, during the 2008-09 winter, shows that there is a cold bias using the MODIS IST which underestimates the measured surface temperature by approximately 3 C when temperatures range from approximately -50 C to approximately -35 C. The ultimate goal is to develop a CDR that starts in 1981 with the Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset and continues with MODIS data from 2000 to the present. Differences in the APP and MODIS cloud masks have so far precluded the current IST records from spanning both the APP and MODIS IST time series in a seamless manner though this will be revisited when the APP dataset has been reprocessed. The Greenland IST climate-quality data record is suitable for continuation using future Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data and will be elevated in status to a CDR when at least 9 more years of climate-quality data become available either from MODIS Terra or Aqua, or from the VIIRS. The complete MODIS IST data record will be available online in the summer of 2011.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

SORCE and Future Satellite Observations of Solar Irradiance

With solar activity just passing the maximum of cycle 23, SORCE is beginning a 5 year mission to measure total solar irradiance (TSI) with unprecedented accuracy using phase-sensitive detection, and to measure spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with unprecedented spectral coverage, from 1 to 2000 nm. The new Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) has 4 active cavity radiometers, any one of which can be used as a fixed-temperature reference against any other that is exposed to the Sun via a shutter that cycles at a rate designed to minimize noise at the shutter frequency. The new Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) is a dual Fery prism spectrometer that can employ either prism as a monochromatic source on the other prism, thus monitoring its transmission during the mission lifetime. Either prism can measure SSI from 200 to 2000 nm, employing the same phase-sensitive electrical substitution strategy as TIM. SORCE also carries dual SOLSTICE instruments to cover the spectral range 100-320 nm, similar to the instruments onboard UARS, and also an XUV Photometer System (XPS) similar to that on TIMED. SSI has now been added to TSI as a requirement of EOS and NPOESS, because different spectral components drive different components of the climate system - UV into upper atmosphere and stratospheric ozone, IR into tropospheric water vapor and clouds, and Visible into the oceans and biosphere. Succeeding satellite missions being planned for 2006 and 2011 will continue to monitor these critical solar variables.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗