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At least 145 records · Page 8

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From Subsurface to System: Offshore CCS Development for the Northeastern U.S. Atlantic Shelf

This study evaluated offshore carbon sequestration potential and infrastructure design along the mid-north Atlantic outer continental shelf, addressing the limited onshore storage options in the northeastern U.S. The objective was to define viable CCS pathways by integrating geological characterization, reservoir modeling, and system-level engineering for decarbonizing regional industrial sources. The work was conducted under US DOE grant FE0032407 for the Regional Initiatives and builds on a previous prospective resources assessment project by Battelle.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fermi-LAT View on Three Ultra-high-energy 1LHAASO Sources in the 52° < l < 55° Region

Using more than 17 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we performed a detailed investigation of the complex 52° < l < 55° region, which encompasses the three ultra-high-energy sources 1LHAASO J1928+1746u, 1LHAASO J1928+1813u, and 1LHAASO J1929+1846u. This region hosts multiple supernova remnants (SNRs), pulsars, GeV and TeV sources. Our analysis resolves the GeV emission into three pointlike sources (J1925+1729P, J1930+1851P, and J1932+1916P) and two extended sources (J1929+1732E and J1930+1826E), and improves significantly on the description based on the 4FGL-DR4 catalog. Source J1932+1916P is identified as the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1932+1916, while J1925+1729P may be a new gamma-ray pulsar candidate distinct from the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1925+1720. This warrants future investigation and a search for pulsations. Source J1930+1851P coincides with the TeV source PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3, and its GeV−TeV spectrum is consistent with both leptonic and hadronic interpretations, although a leptonic origin in relation to the known pulsar wind nebula (PWN) is more likely. The GeV−TeV spectrum of J1929+1732E is consistent with a hybrid lepto-hadronic scenario in which the TeV emission traces the PWN powered by the pulsar PSR J1928+1746, while the GeV emission may result from interactions between particles escaped from the parent SNR and illuminating the gas environment. Similarly, J1930+1826E is likely connected to PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3 under a hadronic scenario involving escaped particles in their early propagation stage. Owing to spectral and/or morphological mismatches, the connection of these five GeV sources to the three LHAASO sources is not clear. This warrants deeper observations with HAWC and LHAASO, and a dedicated study of the modeling of the Galactic diffuse emission. Future CTAO observations with higher angular resolution are expected to deliver crucial information for the study of this region.

Liu, Linjie [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ku↗

An overview of polarized neutron instruments and techniques in Asia Pacific

Polarized neutron scattering is an indispensable tool for exploring a vast range of scientific phenomena. With its dynamic scientific community and significant governmental support as well as the rapid economic growth, the Asia–Pacific region has become a key player in the worldwide neutron scattering arena. From traditional research reactors to cutting-edge spallation neutron sources, this region is home to a myriad of advanced instruments offering a wide range of polarized neutron capabilities. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the development and current status of polarized neutron instruments and techniques in the Asia–Pacific region, emphasizing the important role of the Asia–Pacific region in shaping the landscape of global polarized neutron scattering development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Gyrokinetic particle simulations of interactions between energetic particles and magnetic islands induced by neoclassical tearing modes

Interactions between energetic particles (EPs) and neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) islands in the DIII-D tokamak are studied using the global gyrokinetic toroidal code (GTC). GTC simulations find that the EP radial profile is partially flattened within the magnetic island regions and that there are stochastic regions in the particle phase space. Radial particle flux is induced mainly around the magnetic island regions and decreases with time to almost zero when the initial EP distribution achieves a new steady-state in the absence of EP sources. Stochastic regions of magnetic field lines induced by the superposition of multiple islands have weak effects on the particle flux when the width of stochastic regions is smaller than the EP drift orbit width. In conclusion, the perturbed parallel EP current induced by the magnetic islands has weak stabilizing effects on the linear growth rate of the NTM instability in this DIII-D experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Use of Silver Chloride Injection in Remediation of Iodine-129 by In Situ Capture as Silver Iodide at the F-Area Seepage Basin - 20225

The Savannah River Site (SRS) produced tritium, plutonium, and special nuclear materials for national defense, medicine, and the space programs. As part of operations, the F-Area Seepage Basins operated until 1988 for the disposition of deionized acidic wastewater from the F Separations Facility. The wastewater contained dilute nitric acid and low concentrations of non-radioactive metals, and radionuclides, with the major isotopes being Cs-137, Sr-90, U-235, U-238, Pu-239, Tc-99, I-129, and tritium. The seepage basins were closed in 1988 and backfilled and capped by 1991. The groundwater emanating from beneath the closed and capped seepage basins is acidic and contains elevated levels of both chemical and radiological contaminants. Releases from the groundwater plumes sourced from the F-Area Seepage Basins have impacted the water quality of Fourmile Branch, which is a small tributary to the Savannah River, a regional water source. A large pump-and-treat system was constructed in 1997 and operated until 2003 in an attempt to capture the releases to Fourmile Branch. The system in F Area and a similar system in H Area were expensive (∼$1.3 M/month) to operate and produced large quantities of radioactive waste, with concentrations of I- 129 too high to be disposed of at the SRS. In 2004, SRS replaced pump-and-treat with a funnel and gate system that along with operation of a base injection system at the gates reduces the flux of contaminants to the wetlands adjacent to Fourmile Branch. The alkaline solution injected into the aquifer neutralizes the acidic plume and immobilizes many of the cationic constituents. However, base injection is not effective in managing the release of iodine-129, an anionic contaminant. To address iodine-129 SRS and the Savannah River National Laboratory developed an in situ technology that uses ultra-fine ground silver chloride (AgCl) as an injectable capture medium for the sequestration of iodine-129. The AgCl amendment has a very small particle size and is designed to be injected into the contaminated aquifer to capture iodine-129. Dissolved iodine-129 forms a stable and highly insoluble solid (silver iodide) upon contact with AgCl. Laboratory studies, a field scale pilot test (2009), and three deployments (2011, 2015 and 2019) of AgCl have been successfully performed at the F-Area Seepage Basins. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Regional infrasonic observations from surface explosions – influence of atmospheric variations and realistic terrain

SUMMARY A pair of 1-ton, conventional surface explosions were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in the fall of 2020 producing seismoacoustic signatures observable hundreds of kilometres from the source location. Regional infrasonic observations include tropospheric ducting at large distances to the south, a wide stratospheric waveguide with signals observed more than 700 km to the east, and anomalous arrivals in the stratospheric shadow zone. Notable differences in propagation between the events are identified despite the explosions being conducted just two days apart due to a sharp temporal shift in the tropospheric winds as well as structural changes in the stratospheric winds. Propagation simulations of the two events have been completed using a combination of ray tracing and parabolic equation (PE) methods. Simulations have been conducted to quantify the impact of the temporal variations in the atmosphere as well as the influence of terrain on propagation. Temporal variations in reflection locations are found to produce notable changes in downrange propagation due to spatially varying terrain features. Finite frequency effects modelled by the PE are found to predict ensonification not included in corresponding 2D ray tracing simulations. Notable variations in predicted signal amplitude are found due to focusing by along-path and cross-path terrain gradients; though, the later of these is only modelled using fully 3D ray tracing analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

National‐Scale Assessment of Total Gaseous Mercury Isotopes Across the United States

Abstract With the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the successful negotiation by the United Nations Environment Program of the Minamata Convention, emissions of mercury (Hg) have declined in the United States. While the declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations in North America are encouraging, linking the declines to changing domestic and global source portfolios remains challenging. To address these research gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated the first national‐scale effort to establish a baseline of total gaseous mercury stable isotope values at 31 sites distributed across the United States. Results indicated that unique Hg sources, such as Hg evasion from an elemental Hg contaminated site or free tropospheric intrusions in high altitude sites, were distinguishable from background atmospheric values. Minor gradients were observed across the nation, with regions of heavy industrial activity demonstrating lower δ 202 Hg, but no consistent changes in other isotopes such as Δ 199 Hg and Δ 200 Hg were observed. Furthermore, δ 202 Hg was impacted by foliar uptake and senescence but trends varied between forested regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. These data demonstrate regional emission sources and other environmental variables can impact total gaseous Hg (TGM) isotope values, highlighting the need to characterize atmospheric Hg isotopes over larger geographical areas to evaluate changes related to national and international Hg regulations.

Tate, Michael T.↗

Recovery and Calibration of Legacy Underground Nuclear Test Seismic Data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN, originally the Sandia Seismic Network) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories to monitor underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS, formerly named the Nevada Test Site). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has generally been comprised of four to six stations at regional distances (~150–400 km) from the NNSS with approximately evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the end of nuclear testing in 1992, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories—was the most comprehensive United States source of regional seismic data of UGTs. Approximately 75% of all UGTs performed by the United States occurred in the predigital era. At that time, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to a central location and recorded as analog waveforms on high-fidelity magnetic audio tapes. These tapes have been in dry temperature-stable storage for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data; full waveforms of LBSN-recorded UGTs from this era were not routinely digitized or otherwise published. We have developed a process to recover and calibrate data from these tapes. First, we play back and digitize the tapes as audio. Next, we demodulate the FM “audio” into individual waveforms. We then estimate the various instrument constants through careful measurement of “weight-lift” tests performed prior to each UGT on each instrument. Finally, these coefficients allow us to scale and shape the derived instrument response of the seismographs and compute poles and zeros. Finally, the result of this process is a digital record of the recorded seismic ground motion in a modern data format, stored in a searchable database. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 UGTs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year -1 , was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year -1 ) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of measurements from an array of radioxenon samplers near to Hartlepool Nuclear Power Station

As part of a scientific research and development project, the radionuclide fingerprint of an operating advanced gas-cooled reactor 25 (AGR) has been studied across several facets (Goodwin et al., 2024). One part of this project was to deploy an array of 26 radioxenon samplers to the region for a period of around 1 year, to measure any radioxenon emissions from the reactors of the 27 Hartlepool nuclear power station at a range of tens of kilometres away. The array of 3 sensors was operational for around 12 28 months from March 2022 and detected many occurrences of isotopes of radioxenon. Here we provide a detailed analysis and 29 interpretation of the data and where possible, attribution of detections to a source or region. Whilst a key part of this work is to 30 measure any emissions of radioxenon from Hartlepool, this work presents one of the most comprehensive efforts to determine the 31 source of a great number of (mostly) 133Xe detections. A combination of different types of atmospheric dispersion modelling 32 techniques, including the use of stack monitoring data from nearby civil radioxenon-emitting nuclear facilities has enabled the 33 majority of detections to be attributed to one or more possible sources. Whilst emissions from Hartlepool have been detected on 34 the systems, the majority of detections are associated with a medical isotope production facility in Fleurus, Belgium (IRE).

Advanced gas-cooled reactor↗

Geologic Carbon Storage of Anthropogenic CO2 under the Colorado Plateau in Emery County, Utah

Geologic Carbon Storage (GCS) is a promising technology for storing large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 effectively and permanently. Numerical simulations are an integral part of site selection and characterization for any potential GCS site. As part of the DOE-funded CarbonSAFE Rocky Mountains Phase I project, a regional GCS analysis was undertaken to understand the efficacy of storing CO2 emissions from the power generation and heavy industry in central Utah’s favorable geology. In this study, the injection of CO2 for geologic storage was simulated in the Navajo Sandstone Formation in Emery County, Utah. Carbon dioxide was sourced from regional power generation stations and heavy industries throughout Utah, with an emphasis on emissions reduction at the Hunter Power Plant near Castle Dale, Utah. A simulation grid was extracted from the project’s geological model encompassing an area around Price, Huntington, and Castle Dale in central Utah. The Navajo Sandstone Member of the Glen Canyon Group was the target of CO2 injection with the overlying Carmel formation providing the primary seal. A suite of simulations was performed assessing the viability of this area for permanent CO2 storage. Results indicate that the area can not only store 46 million metric tons of anthropogenic CO2, meeting the project goals, but this area has the capacity to securely store at least 1.3 billion tons of CO2, suggesting the injection site and surrounding geology are suitable locations for commercial-scale GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Origin of Electron Boomerang Stripes: Statistical Study

In the outer radiation belt, localized ultralow frequency (ULF) waves can interact with energetic electrons by drift resonance, leading to quasiperiodic oscillations. The oscillations in the pitch angle spectrum can be characterized by either boomerang-shaped or straight stripes. Previous studies have shown that boomerang-shaped stripes evolve from straight ones when electrons drift away from the localized wave interaction region. Based on the time-of-flight technique on the pitch angle-dependent drift velocity, the origin can be remotely identified from the pitch angle dispersion. Here, we report 27 straight stripe events and 86 boomerang-shaped events observed by Van Allen Probes from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017. Statistical study shows a good coincidence between the locations of straight ones and traceback regions from boomerang-shaped ones. These locations, mainly located in noon-to-dusk region, coincide well with the plasmaspheric plumes. Thus, localized ULF waves trapped in the plume may result in the preference of localized ULF wave-electron interactions at noon-to-dusk region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identification of major moisture sources across the Mediterranean Basin

We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the Mediterranean land region (30° N–49.5° N and 9.75° W–61.5° E) at seasonal timescales for 1980–2013 period. Using a source region between 10° S–71.35° N along the latitude and 80° W–84.88° E along the longitude that is subdivided into ten complimentary sub-regions, our analyses is able to backtrack up to > 90% of seasonal precipitation at each grid point within the target region. Our results indicate a significant role of moisture advected from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, and locally recycled moisture over the target region in shaping the spatial organization of seasonal precipitation. However, a clear east–west contrast is witnessed in determining the relative importance of each of these major moisture sources where the North Atlantic dictates the moisture supply over the western Mediterranean while moisture from Mediterranean Sea and local recycling play a key role over the eastern Mediterranean. Our analyses also demonstrate a major footprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on precipitation variability over the Mediterranean land as dynamic and thermodynamic anomalies during the negative phase of NAO match with those during wet years and vice versa. The findings reported here are generally consistent across the four reanalysis datasets. Overall, this study establishes the relative roles of adjacent and far-off oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources over the Mediterranean land and should help in understanding the drivers of precipitation variability and change at varying timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tidal Stream Energy Resource Characterization in the Salish Sea

Tidal stream energy holds great potential as a renewable energy source in regions of the world where tidal currents are strong and predictable. The tidal stream energy resource of a region is strongly controlled by its tidal wave characteristics, the local bathymetry, and coastal geometric features. The Salish Sea, a large estuary on the Pacific Northwest coast, represents a great tidal stream resource because of its strong tidal currents in many tidal channels. However, the tidal resource in the Salish Sea has not been systematically characterized, primarily because of its large area and complex bathymetry and coastlines. This paper presents a modeling study conducted to characterize the tidal energy resource of the Salish Sea based on a high-resolution three-dimensional tidal hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea, which was extensively validated using data derived from 10 tidal gauge stations and 132 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler stations. Model validation results indicated the Salish Sea hydrodynamic model is skillful in simulating tidal wave propagation and velocity distributions in the Salish Sea. Based on model results, a total of 16 tidal channels with strong tidal currents, 9 in the San Juan Islands and Rosario Strait regions and 7 in the Puget Sound, were identified as hotspots for potential tidal energy development. Velocity probability distributions and exceedance curves of cross-channel average velocity magnitudes were calculated at all 16 channels based on the recommendations of the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specifications for tidal energy resource characterization. The tidal energy resource at the 16 hotspots was also characterized using power density distributions and kinetic energy fluxes. The ranking of the kinetic energy fluxes suggested that Admiralty Inlet, Rosario Strait, and Middle Channel are the top three hotspot sites in the Salish Sea for tidal stream energy development. The study demonstrated the need for a high-resolution 3-D modeling framework for accurate simulation of tidal currents in large complex estuarine systems, in the context of tidal energy resource characterization.

tidal stream energy, resource characterization, Sa↗

Drivers of Phytoplankton Variability in and Near the Pearl River Estuary, South China Sea During Typhoon Hato (2017): A Numerical Study

The Pearl River estuary-coastal system in the Northern South China Sea is frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Previous in-situ and remote sensing studies have found typhoons can enhance phytoplankton biomass and induce blooms in this region. However, the mechanistic links between phytoplankton blooms and typhoons have not been well elucidated due to the interplay of multiple processes along the land-ocean-atmosphere interfaces. Unravelling these interactions will have to rely on an integrated modelling system. In this work, we constructed a realistic, 3-dimensional, land-ocean-atmosphere modelling system with the marine ecosystem and sediment components for the China Great Bay Area. By using the integrated modelling system, we quantitatively investigated phytoplankton response to hydrological conditions variations under Typhoon Hato (2017), a strong typhoon case. Passive tracer experiments showed that with high river discharge induced by heavy rainfall, the residence time of Lingding Bay is as short as 15-day, less than half of that under the climatological discharge. The increase in freshwater pulse washed out the phytoplankton biomass within Lingding Bay. While for the offshore region, the source and sink terms analysis showed that the increase of phytoplankton biomass in the first week was because of the uplift of nutrient-rich subsurface water, while in the second week was because of the seaward propagated nearshore high phytoplankton biomass water. While riverine nutrients support phytoplankton growth in the third week, a large part of phytoplankton biomass was lost to zooplankton grazing, showing the system shifted from the bottom-up control to the top-down control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Kyasanur forest disease in resource-limited settings using event-based surveillance and transfer learning

In recent years, the reports of Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) breaking endemic barriers by spreading to new regions and crossing state boundaries is alarming. Effective disease surveillance and reporting systems are lacking for this emerging zoonosis, hence hindering control and prevention efforts. We compared time-series models using weather data with and without Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) information, i.e., news media reports and internet search trends, to predict monthly KFD cases in humans. We fitted Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Long Short-Term Memory models at the national and regional levels. We utilized the rich epidemiological data from endemic regions by applying Transfer Learning (TL) techniques to predict KFD cases in new outbreak regions where disease surveillance information was scarce. Overall, the inclusion of EBS data, in addition to the weather data, substantially increased the prediction performance across all models. The XGB method produced the best predictions at the national and regional levels. The TL techniques outperformed baseline models in predicting KFD in new outbreak regions. Novel sources of data and advanced machine-learning approaches, e.g., EBS and TL, show great potential towards increasing disease prediction capabilities in data-scarce scenarios and/or resource-limited settings, for better-informed decisions in the face of emerging zoonotic threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗