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At least 145 records · Page 8

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NASA NTRS2010

A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

Adams, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Investigating the Effects of Space Weathering in Ryugu Samples Using Coordinated Microanalyses

Airless planetary surfaces are characterized by a distinct lack of an atmosphere or magnetic field, leading to direct exposure to the effects of hypervelocity micrometeoroid impacts and solar wind ion irradiation [1]. These processes, cumulatively known as space weathering, gradually alter the microstructural and chemical properties of the grains on airless surfaces. Signatures of space weathering include vesiculated textures, amorphous grain rims (upper ~100 nm), solar flare tracks, and Fe-bearing nanoparticles (npFe) [2,3]. The accumulation of these microstructural space weathering characteristics, particularly the presence of npFe, alters the spectral properties of airless regoliths resulting in changes in spectral slope and reflectance of the surfaces, and the attenuation of characteristic absorption bands in the visible to near-infrared (Vis-NIR) wavelengths. These spectral changes complicate our ability to accurately interpret the mineralogy of airless bodies via remote sensing spectroscopy [1,4]. Studies of space weathering have primarily focused on anhydrous silicate minerals, reflecting the main components of the available returned samples from the Moon and S-type asteroid Itokawa [3,5,6]. However, our understanding of space weathering of primitive, organic-rich carbonaceous materials is still a work in progress. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)’s Hayabusa2 mission offered the first opportunity to directly investigate carbonaceous asteroids by returning samples from C-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu. Initial studies of Ryugu samples show mineralogical similarities to CI chondrites along with surface modifications consistent with space weathering. These surface modifications are primarily in the form of μm-thick silicate melts, amorphized phyllosilicates, glassy spherules, and burst vesicles [3,7]. Here, we report results from coordinated microanalytical techniques to further our understanding of the mineralogy and space weathering of carbonaceous materials.

L E Melendez↗

NASA NTRS2019

Coordinated Analysis of an Experimentally Space Weathered Carbonaceous Chondrite

The surfaces of airless bodies experience solar wind irradiation and micrometeorite impacts, a process collectively known as space weathering. These mechanisms alter the chemical composition, microstructure, and optical properties of surface materials and considerable work has been done to understand this phenomenon in lunar and ordinary chondritic materials. However, ongoing sample return missions Hayabusa2 to asteroid Ryugu and OSIRIS-REx to asteroid Bennu have prompted the need to study the effects of space weathering on hydrated, organic-rich materials, especially in the context of early results. Understanding space weathering of these samples is critical for properly interpreting remote sensing data during asteroid encounters, for sample site selection, and for the eventual study of returned samples. We can better understand space weathering of carbonaceous materials by simulating these processes in the laboratory. Recent experiments have shown that the changes in spectral characteristics of carbonaceous chondrites are not consistent among experiments, suggesting additional work is needed before these results can inform our understanding of spectral variations on asteroidal surfaces. Similarly, substantial work remains to characterize the chemical and microstructural effects of these processes in order to correlate these features with spectral changes. Here, we build on our previous work, presenting new results of the pulsed laser irradiation of the Murchison (CM2) meteorite to simulate micrometeorite impacts and the progressive space weathering of carbonaceous surfaces.

Thompson, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Models at the CCMC And Their Capabilities

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community-provided, space weather-relevant, model suite, which resides at CCMC. We will discuss current capabilities, and analyze expected future developments of space weather related modeling.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

The Community Coordinated l\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Challenges for Transitioning Science Knowledge to an Operational Environment for Space Weather

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to an operational environment relevant to space weather is critical to meet the civilian and defense needs, especially considering how technologies are advancing and present evolving susceptibilities to space weather impacts. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research task nor is an operational activity, but an effort that bridges the two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort that has a clear goal for all parties and measureable outcome and deliverable. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective for terrestrial weather and disaster relief efforts, and how those methodologies can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 Mission

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) Observatory will be situated in a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous orbit with the goal of providing continuous measurements of the space environment and observations of the Sun’s outer atmosphere, and contributing to accurate forecasts of space weather disturbances. Unique to the SWFO-L1 mission are challenges of a rideshare launch, immoderate momentum management delta-V residuals, and spacecraft maneuver design considerations, resulting in specialized operational approach, management, and support.

cislunar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 Mission

Dynamical Systems↗

NASA NTRS2008

Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Role of Hydrated Minerals and Space Weathering Products in the Bluing of Carbonaceous Asteroids

The surfaces of airless bodies such as lunar and S-type asteroids typically become spectrally redder in visible to near-infrared reflectance with longer exposures to space weathering. However, some carbonaceous asteroids instead become spectrally bluer. Space weathering experiments on carbonaceous meteorites have provided some clues as to the space weathering products that could produce spectral bluing. We applied these experimental results to our Hapke radiative transfer model, with which we modeled spectral data from the OSIRIS-REx mission in order to determine whether these space weathering products—specifically, nanophase and microphase metallic iron, troilite, and magnetite—could explain the globally blue spectrum of the carbonaceous asteroid (101955) Bennu. The model suggests that the surface of Bennu has microphase iron, nanophase magnetite, and nanophase and microphase troilite. Considering previous space weathering experiments together with our spectral modeling of Bennu, we posit that the presence of nanophase magnetite is what causes a carbonaceous asteroid to become spectrally bluer with exposure time. Nanophase magnetite can form on asteroids that have Fe-bearing hydrated minerals (phyllosilicates). On anhydrous carbonaceous asteroids, nanophase iron forms instead of magnetite, leading to spectral reddening. We therefore predict that samples returned by the OSIRIS-REx mission from Bennu will have more nanophase magnetite than nanophase iron with nanophase and microphase sulfides, whereas samples returned by the Hayabusa2 mission from the carbonaceous asteroid (162173) Ryugu, which is spectrally red, will contain nanophase and microphase sulfides as well as more nanophase iron than nanophase magnetite.

David Trang↗

NASA NTRS2010

Environmental Impact Specification for Direct Space Weathering of Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud Objects

The Direct Space Weathering Project of NASA's Outer Planets Research Program addresses specification of the plasma and energetic particle environments for irradiation and surface chemical processing of icy bodies in the outer solar system and the local interstellar medium. Knowledge of the radiation environments is being expanded by ongoing penetration of the twin Voyager spacecraft into the heliosheath boundary region of the outer heliosphere and expected emergence within the next decade into the very local interstellar medium. The Voyager measurements are being supplemented by remote sensing from Earth orbit of energetic neutral atom emission from this boundary region by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Although the Voyagers long ago passed the region of the Classical Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto in 2015 and thereafter explore one or more KBOs, meanwhile providing updated measurements of the heliospheric radiation environment in this region. Modeling of ion transport within the heliosphere allows specification of time-integrated irradiation effects while the combination of Voyager and IBEX data supports projection of the in-situ measurements into interstellar space beyond the heliosheath. Transformation of model ion flux distributions into surface sputtering and volume ionization profiles provides a multi-layer perspective for space weathering impact on the affected icy bodies and may account for some aspects of color and compositional diversity. Other important related factors may include surface erosion and gardening by meteoritic impacts and surface renewal by cryovolcanism. Chemical products of space weathering may contribute to energy resources for the latter.

Cooper, John F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Space Weather with the Geospace Dynamics Constellation

The Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission, planned to launch at the end of the decade, is a six-satellite constellation that will fly through the ionosphere and thermosphere at around 400 km. While GDC is a science mission, its comprehensive instrumentation will not only contribute to our understanding of space weather phenomena in the ionosphere-thermosphere system, but will also provide valuable, space weather-relevant data. Data from GDC will be made available at low latency via real-time space weather data stream. We are working with operational partners to identify space weather data products and coordinate reception of the space weather beacon data. Alongside preparations for real-time GDC data streams, we are working to identify current model capabilities and needs, to ensure that space weather models that can make use of GDC measurements are moving along the Research-toOperations pipeline. Before GDC launch, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) carried out with synthetic GDC data can be used to demonstrate the capabilities of models and to predict the impact of GDC data. Following launch, Observing System Experiments (OSEs) will demonstrate the impact of GDC space weather data. In preparation for GDC, the ITM space weather community should establish baseline metrics for space weather parameters of scientific and operational interest. These metrics, tracked over time before and after the launch of GDC, will allow us to track advancements in forecasting, nowcasting, and hindcasting of the ITM system and to trace the impact of scientific progress from space weather research into operations. By demonstrating the impact of real-time GDC data, specific data needs can be identified and prioritized for long term investment on future observing systems.

Katherine Garcia-Sage↗

NASA NTRS1994

Experimental space weathering of regolith material

Significant advances in the understanding of space weathering processes were recently reported. Submicroscopic iron blebs were produced in lunar simulant glass and natural terrestrial minerals by high-temperature reduction in controlled atmosphere furnaces. These experiments altered the samples' optical properties and microtextures so that they resembled those of extremely mature lunar soil. The results contributed to a revised model for natural reduction in the regolith. Subsequently, supporting results were obtained by reduction of lunar samples. Research to date has focused on reduction of three lunar surface components: basalt, pyroclastic glass, and mare soil. An extensive set of H reduction experiments with simulants has led to a detailed understanding of reaction mechanisms and kinetics. Reduction experiments using lunar basalt were recently conducted by Carbotek. Reduced samples from these test were analyzed. Reduction experiments on lunar glass 74220 were run at temperatures of 900-1100 C. Reduction efficiency of volcanic glass proved to be a function of the sample's FeO abundance and reaction temperature. We also reduced mare soil 75061 at temperatures of 900-1050 C. Partial reduction of FeO in olivine and pyroxene occurred, but was slower and less complete than reduction of ilmenite. Our experiments on simulants and lunar samples have indicated that the most readily reduced phases in the regolith are ilmenite and glass. Based on initial tests with simulants we proposed refinements to the accepted model for space weathering of the regolith. The impact of a micrometeoroid flash heats and melts and ejects from the impact point a small volume of soil that contains trapped solar wind H and C. Reduction occurs rapidly, while the melt volume is still in motion. When a droplet encounters unmelted soil, it envelopes cold mineral grains. The melt is chilled rapidly. Our analyses of experimentally reduced lunar basalt, glass, and mare soil support the proposed model for space weathering.

Mckay, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters Extracted from Merged Space-Weather MDI/HMI Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

Space-Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) are two recently developed data products, which have been used for solar flare prediction studies. The present work is an effort to expand the application of SMARP and SHARP summary heliomagnetic parameters to the forecasting of solar flares. A new data product was derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP summary parameter data series, which were further converted into two-dimensional arrays by selecting time slices corresponding to R-value maxima, where R-value is a measure of the unsigned magnetic flux near polarity inversion lines. The resulting combined MDI-HMI time series currently span the period between April 4, 1996 and December 13, 2022, and can be extended to a more recent date, providing an opportunity to correlate and compare them with other solar activity parameters, such as the daily solar flare index, which is computed as a sum of the product of GOES X-ray flare magnitude and flare duration, for all M- and X-class flares during a day. Preliminary results demonstrate a significant overall correlation, with Pearson coefficients between 0.339 and 0.627. In addition, an oscillating pattern is seen in the daily-averaged sliding-window correlation coefficient. Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a leader-follower dynamic exists in some parameters, especially R-value, where they lead the flare index by at least several days, which may have potential for further application in space weather forecasting.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space weathering features of anhydrous minerals in fine grains from the C-type asteroid Ryugu

Materials exposed to the space environment are expected to show optically and chemically modified properties. This process is called as space weathering and is caused mainly by micrometeoroid bombardments and solar wind implantation [1]. Thus far, the space weathering of carbonaceous asteroids has not been well understood. Regolith samples were successfully recovered from C-type asteroid Ryugu by the Hayabusa mission [2]. Ryugu samples will provide insights into the ongoing space weathering of Ryugu [3]. In this study, we investigated the space weathering of anhydrous minerals including iron sulfides, magnetite, and carbonates, which are major reservoirs of volatiles including carbon, oxygen, and sulfur in Ryugu materials. We performed scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission/scanning transmission electron microscopy (TEM/STEM) analysis for Ryugu samples.

Toru Matsumoto↗

NASA NTRS2015

Space Weathering in Houston: A Role for the Experimental Impact Laboratory at JSC

The effective investigation of space weathering demands an interdisciplinary approach that is at least as diversified as any other in planetary science. Because it is a macroscopic process affecting all bodies in the solar system, impact and its resulting shock effects must be given detailed attention in this regard. Direct observation of the effects of impact is most readily done for the Moon, but it still remains difficult for other bodies in the solar system. Analyses of meteorites and precious returned samples provide clues for space weathering on asteroids, but many deductions arising from those studies must still be considered circumstantial. Theoretical work is also indispensable, but it can only go as far as the sometimes meager data allow. Experimentation, however, can permit near real-time study of myriad processes that could contribute to space weathering. This contribution describes some of the capabilities of the Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) and how they might help in understanding the space weathering process.

Cintala, M. J.↗