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At least 145 records · Page 8

Development of a MODIS-Derived Surface Albedo Data Set: An Improved Model Input for Processing the NSRDB

A significant source of bias in the transposition of global horizontal irradiance to plane-of-array (POA) irradiance arises from inaccurate estimations of surface albedo. The current physics-based model used to produce the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) relies on model estimations of surface albedo from a reanalysis climatalogy produced at relatively coarse spatial resolution compared to that of the NSRDB. As an input to spectral decomposition and transposition models, more accurate surface albedo data from remotely sensed imagery at finer spatial resolutions would improve accuracy in the final product. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an improved white-sky (bi-hemispherical reflectance) broadband (0.3-5.0 ..mu..m) surface albedo data set for processing the NSRDB from two existing data sets: a gap-filled albedo product and a daily snow cover product. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites have provided high-quality measurements of surface albedo at 30 arc-second spatial resolution and 8-day temporal resolution since 2001. The high spatial and temporal resolutions and the temporal coverage of the MODIS sensor will allow for improved modeling of POA irradiance in the NSRDB. However, cloud and snow cover interfere with MODIS observations of ground surface albedo, and thus they require post-processing. The MODIS production team applied a gap-filling methodology to interpolate observations obscured by clouds or ephemeral snow. This approach filled pixels with ephemeral snow cover because the 8-day temporal resolution is too coarse to accurately capture the variability of snow cover and its impact on albedo estimates. However, for this project, accurate representation of daily snow cover change is important in producing the NSRDB. Therefore, NREL also used the Integrated Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System data set, which provides daily snow cover observations of the Northern Hemisphere for the temporal extent of the NSRDB (1998-2015). We provide a review of validation studies conducted on these two products and describe the methodology developed by NREL to remap the data products to the NSRDB grid and integrate them into a seamless daily data set.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Derivation and assessment of regional electricity generation emission factors in the USA

Electricity production is one of the largest sources of environmental emissions - especially greenhouse gases (GHGs) - in the USA. Emission factors (EFs) vary from region to region, which requires the use of spatially relevant EF data for electricity production while performing life cycle assessments (LCAs). Uncertainty information, which is sought by LCA practitioners, is rarely supplied with available life cycle inventories (LCIs). To address these challenges, we present a method for collecting data from different sources for electricity generation and environmental emissions; discuss the challenges involved in agglomerating such data; provide relevant suggestions and solutions to merge the information; and calculate EFs for electricity generation processes from various fuel sources for different spatial regions and spatial resolutions. The EFs from the US 2016 Electricity Life Cycle Inventory (eLCI) are analyzed and explored in this study. We also explore the method of uncertainty information derivation for the EFs. We explore the EFs from different technologies across Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) regions in the USA. We find that for certain eGRID regions, the same electricity production technology may have worse emissions. This may be a result of the age of the plants in the region, the quality of fuel used, or other underlying factors. Region-wise life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) ISO 14040 impacts for total generation mix activities provide an overview of the total sustainability profile of electricity production in a particular region, rather than only global warming potential (GWP). We also find that, for different LCIA impacts, several eGRID regions are consistently worse than the US average LCIA impact for every unit of electricity generated. Here this work describes the development of an electricity production LCI at different spatial resolutions by combining and harmonizing information from several databases. The inventory consists of emissions, fuel inputs, and electricity and steam outputs from different electricity production technologies located across various regions of the USA. This LCI for electricity production in the USA will prove to be an enormous resource for all LCA researchers - considering the detailed sources of the information and the breadth of emissions covered by it.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

India Solar Resource Data: National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution solar radiation data for long periods of time, which allows user to have a clear understanding of the spatial and temporal correlation of the data to determine the true impact of solar variability on the grid. This fact sheet specifically outlines solar resource data for India included in NSRDB.

energy systems↗

Surface albedo spatial variability in North America: Gridded data vs. local measurements

Considering the current booming interest for the large-scale deployment of bifacial photovoltaic modules, the solar industry now requires accurate estimates of broadband surface albedo at high spatial resolution. In this context, the present study evaluates the adequacy and performance over North America of two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) white-sky albedo products (at 500-m and 1-km resolution) and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) product at 4-km resolution. Two variations of the 500-m MODIS product are also considered: black-sky albedo and all-sky albedo. Albedo observations from 36 radiometric stations during 2011–2015 are analyzed while considering the apparent homogeneity of the surface characteristics over the 4x4 km NSRDB pixel in which they are located. Even at sites where the albedo around the station has been found “homogeneous” in the literature, marked differences are found between the daily observations and the gridded estimates at any spatial resolution. Furthermore, differences in seasonal behavior and between the three different albedo types also impact the accuracy of the albedo estimates, with overtones caused by local specificities and inhomogeneities. All this precludes the desirable evaluation of the local albedo at a specific site of relatively small size compared to its corresponding 4x4-km pixel if only the mean albedo over that pixel is known. Significant discrepancies are also found at snow-impacted sites, most importantly in the case of the NSRDB albedo estimates, which are typically much too high.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geospatial Framework for Estimating Household Electricity Demand for Urban Infrastructure Planning in Select African Countries

Power infrastructure planning in Sub-Saharan Africa requires accurate power demand estimates. However, these estimates are lacking in most countries which compounds the effects of unreliable electricity supply. This study utilizes a methodology that was used to forecast power demand in Uganda and extends it to other African countries of interest; Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. The goal of the study is to create spatial power demand maps that can be used for power infrastructure planning. The proposed approach utilizes a global population database at a fine resolution of 1 km2 as the foundational input data. The analysis indicates a deficit of about 22,630 MW (South Africa), 20,213 MW (Nigeria), 4,153 MW (Kenya), and 2,508 MW (Uganda) compared to the current installed capacity to meet the highest power demand scenario.

Kotikot, Susan M.↗

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

BioenergyKDF: Enabling Spatiotemporal Data Synthesis and Research Collaboration

The Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework (BioenergyKDF) is a scalable, web-based collaborative environment for scientists working on bioenergy related research in which the connections between data, literature, and models can be explored and more clearly understood. The fully-operational and deployed system, built on multiple open source libraries and architectures, stores contributions from the community of practice and makes them easy to find, but that is just its base functionality. The BioenergyKDF provides a national spatiotemporal decision support capability that enables data sharing, analysis, modeling, and visualization as well as fosters the development and management of the U.S. bioenergy infrastructure, which is an essential component of the national energy infrastructure. The BioenergyKDF is built on a flexible, customizable platform that can be extended to support the requirements of any user community especially those that work with spatiotemporal data. While there are several community data-sharing software platforms available, some developed and distributed by national governments, none of them have the full suite of capabilities available in BioenergyKDF. For example, this component-based platform and database independent architecture allows it to be quickly deployed to existing infrastructure and to connect to existing data repositories (spatial or otherwise). As new data, analysis, and features are added; the BioenergyKDF will help lead research and support decisions concerning bioenergy into the future, but will also enable the development and growth of additional communities of practice both inside and outside of the Department of Energy. These communities will be able to leverage the substantial investment the agency has made in the KDF platform to quickly stand up systems that are customized to their data and research needs.

Bioenergy.↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of a global database containing tritium in precipitation

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) directed the collection of tritium in water samples from the mid-1950s to 2009. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data examined the airborne movement of isotope releases to the environment, with an objective of collecting spatial data on the isotope content of precipitation across the globe. The initial motivation was to monitor atmospheric thermonuclear test fallout through tritium, deuterium, and oxygen isotope concentrations, but after the 1970s the focus changed to being an observation network of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope data for hydrologic studies. The GNIP database provides a wealth of tritium data collections over a long period of time. The work performed here primarily examined data features in the past 30 years (after much of the effects of above-ground nuclear testing in the late 1950s to early 1960s decayed away), revealing potentially unknown tritium sources. The available data at GNIP were reorganized to allow for evaluation of trends in the data both temporally and spatially. Several interesting cases were revealed, including relatively high measured concentrations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Russia, Norway, as well as an increase in background concentration at a collector in South Korea after 2004. Recent data from stations in the southeastern United States nearest to the Savannah River Site do not indicate any high values. Meteorological impacts have not been considered in this study. Further research to assess the likely source location of interesting cases using transport simulations and/or literature searches is warranted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recovery Act: An Integrated Experimental and Numerical Study: Developing a Reaction Transport Model that Couples Chemical Reactions of Mineral Dissolution/Precipitation with Spatial and Temporal Flow Variations.

A total of 12 publications and 23 abstracts were produced as a result of this study. In particular, the compilation of a thermodynamic database utilizing consistent, current thermodynamic data is a major step toward accurately modeling multi-phase fluid interactions with solids. Existing databases designed for aqueous fluids did not mesh well with existing solid phase databases. Addition of a second liquid phase (CO2) magnifies the inconsistencies between aqueous and solid thermodynamic databases. Overall, the combination of high temperature and pressure lab studies (task 1), using a purpose built apparatus, and solid characterization (task 2), using XRCT and more developed technologies, allowed observation of dissolution and precipitation processes under CO2 reservoir conditions. These observations were combined with results from PIV experiments on multi-phase fluids (task 3) in typical flow path geometries. The results of the tasks 1, 2, and 3 were compiled and integrated into numerical models utilizing Lattice-Boltzmann simulations (task 4) to realistically model the physical processes and were ultimately folded into TOUGH2 code for reservoir scale modeling (task 5). Compilation of the thermodynamic database assisted comparisons to PIV experiments (Task 3) and greatly improved Lattice Boltzmann (Task 4) and TOUGH2 simulations (Task 5). PIV (Task 3) and experimental apparatus (Task 1) have identified problem areas in TOUGHREACT code. Additional lab experiments and coding work has been integrated into an improved numerical modeling code.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Real-time confinement regime detection in fusion plasmas with convolutional neural networks and high-bandwidth edge fluctuation measurements

Abstract A real-time detection of the plasma confinement regime can enable new advanced plasma control capabilities for both the access to and sustainment of enhanced confinement regimes in fusion devices. For example, a real-time indication of the confinement regime can facilitate transition to the high-performing wide-pedestal (WP) quiescent H-mode, or avoid unwanted transitions to lower confinement regimes that may induce plasma termination. To demonstrate real-time confinement regime detection, we use the 2D beam emission spectroscopy (BES) diagnostic system to capture localized density fluctuations of long wavelength turbulent modes in the edge region at a 1 MHz sampling rate. BES data from 330 discharges in either L-mode, H-mode, quiescent H (QH)-mode, or WP QH-mode were collected from the DIII-D tokamak and curated to develop a high-quality database to train a deep-learning classification model for real-time confinement detection. We utilize the 6×8 spatial configuration with a time window of 1024 µ s and recast the input to obtain spectral-like features via fast Fourier transform preprocessing. We employ a shallow 3D convolutional neural network for the multivariate time-series classification task and utilize a softmax in the final dense layer to retrieve a probability distribution over the different confinement regimes. Our model classifies the global confinement state on 44 unseen test discharges with an average F 1 score of 0.94, using only ∼1 ms snippets of BES data at a time. This activity demonstrates the feasibility for real-time data analysis of fluctuation diagnostics in future devices such as ITER, where the need for reliable and advanced plasma control is urgent.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Abstract - Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between Environmental Defense Fund and National Energy Technology Laboratory

Here, we summarize an effort to develop a global oil and gas infrastructure (GOGI) taxonomy and geodatabase, using a combination of big data computing, custom search and data integration algorithms, and expert driven spatio-temporal analytics to identify, access, and evaluate open oil and gas data resources and uncertainty trends worldwide. This approach leveraged custom National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) tools and capabilities in collaboration with Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Carbon Limits subject matter expertise, to identify over 380 datasets and integrate more than 4.8 million features into the GOGI database. In addition to acquisition of open oil and gas infrastructure data, information was collected and analyzed to assess the spatial, temporal, and source quality of these resources, and estimate their completeness relative to the top 40 hydrocarbon producing and consuming countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scaling Resolution of Gigapixel Whole Slide Images Using Spatial Decomposition on Convolutional Neural Networks

Gigapixel images are prevalent in scientific domains ranging from remote sensing, and satellite imagery to microscopy, etc. However, training a deep learning model at the natural resolution of those images has been a challenge in terms of both, overcoming the resource limit (e.g. HBM memory constraints), as well as scaling up to a large number of GPUs. In this paper, we trained Residual neural Networks (ResNet) on 22,528 x 22,528-pixel size images using a distributed spatial decomposition method on 2,304 GPUs on the Summit Supercomputer. We applied our method on a Whole Slide Imaging (WSI) dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. WSI images can be in the size of 100,000 x 100,000 pixels or even larger, and in this work we studied the effect of image resolution on a classification task, while achieving state-of-the-art AUC scores. Moreover, our approach doesn't need pixel-level labels, since we're avoiding patching from the WSI images completely, while adding the capability of training arbitrary large-size images. This is achieved through a distributed spatial decomposition method, by leveraging the non-block fat-tree interconnect network of the Summit architecture, which enabled GPU-to-GPU direct communication. Finally, detailed performance analysis results are shown, as well as a comparison with a data-parallel approach when possible.

Tsaris, Aristeidis (aris)↗

Coupled Approximation of U.S. Driving Speed and Volume Statistics Using Spatial Conflation and Temporal Disaggregation

The advent of mobile devices with embedded global positioning systems has allowed commercial providers of real-time traffic data to develop highly accurate estimates of network-level vehicle speeds. Traffic speed data have far outpaced the availability and accuracy of real-time traffic volume information. Limited to a relatively small number of permanent and temporary traffic counters in any city, traffic volumes typically only cover a handful of roadways with inconsistent temporal resolution. This work addressed this data gap by coupling a commercial dataset of typical traffic speeds (by roadway and time of week) from TomTom to the U.S. FHWA's Highway Performance Monitoring System database of annual average daily traffic (AADT) counts by roadway. This work is technically novel in its solution for establishing a national crosswalk between independent network geometries using spatial conflation and big data techniques. The resulting product is a national dataset providing traffic speed and volume estimates under typical conditions for all U.S. roadways with AADT values.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Coupled Approximation of U.S. Driving Speed and Volume Statistics using Spatial Conflation and Temporal Disaggregation

The advent of mobile devices with embedded global positioning systems has allowed commercial providers of real-time traffic data to develop highly accurate estimates of network-level vehicle speeds. Traffic speed data have far outpaced the availability and accuracy of real-time traffic volume information. Limited to a relatively small number of permanent and temporary traffic counters in any city, traffic volumes typically only cover a handful of roadways, with inconsistent temporal resolution. This work addressed this data gap by coupling a commercial data set of typical traffic speeds (by roadway and time of week) from TomTom to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System database of annual average daily traffic (AADT) counts by roadway. This work is technically novel in its solution for establishing a national crosswalk between independent network geometries using spatial conflation and big data techniques. The resulting product is a national data set providing traffic speed and volume estimates under typical conditions for all U.S. roadways with AADT values.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Parameterized complex dielectric functions of CuIn 1−x Ga x Se 2 : applications in optical characterization of compositional non‐uniformities and depth profiles in materials and solar cells

Abstract In‐situ spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) was employed to extract the complex dielectric functions ε = ε 1 + iε 2 over the spectral range of 0.75–6.5 eV for a set of polycrystalline CuIn 1− x Ga x Se 2 (CIGS) thin films with different alloy compositions x = [Ga]/{[In] + [Ga]}. For highest possible accuracy in ε for each CIGS thin film, specialized SE procedures were adopted including (i) deposition to a thickness of ~600 Å on smooth native oxide covered crystal silicon wafers, which minimizes the surface roughness on the film and thus the required corrections in data analysis, and (ii) measurement in‐situ , which minimizes ambient contamination and oxidation of the film surface. Assuming an analytical form for each of the ε spectra for these CIGS films, oscillator parameters were obtained in best fits, and these parameters were fit in turn to polynomials in x . With the resulting database of polynomial coefficients, the ε spectra for any composition of CIGS can be generated from the single parameter, x . In addition to enabling accurate contactless determination of bulk and surface roughness layer thicknesses of CIGS films by high speed multichannel SE, the database enables characterization of the composition and its profile with depth into these films, and even how the depth profile varies spatially within the plane of the films. In this study, depth profile parameters were found to correlate spatially with solar cell performance parameters. As a result, SE provides the capability of contactless compositional analysis of production‐scale CIGS photovoltaic modules at high speed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aryal, Puruswottam↗