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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks

Abstract. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics in subsurface hydrological flows over a long time window usually employs a network of monitoring wells. However, such observations are often spatially sparse with potential temporal gaps due to poor quality or instrument failure. In this study, we explore the ability of recurrent neural networks to fill gaps in a spatially distributed time-series dataset. We use a well network that monitors the dynamic and heterogeneous hydrologic exchanges between the Columbia River and its adjacent groundwater aquifer at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. This 10-year-long dataset contains hourly temperature, specific conductance, and groundwater table elevation measurements from 42 wells with gaps of various lengths. We employ a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture the temporal variations in the observed system behaviors needed for gap filling. The performance of the LSTM-based gap-filling method was evaluated against a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in terms of error statistics and accuracy in capturing the temporal patterns of river corridor wells with various dynamics signatures. Our study demonstrates that the ARIMA models yield better average error statistics, although they tend to have larger errors during time windows with abrupt changes or high-frequency (daily and subdaily) variations. The LSTM-based models excel in capturing both high-frequency and low-frequency (monthly and seasonal) dynamics. However, the inclusion of high-frequency fluctuations may also lead to overly dynamic predictions in time windows that lack such fluctuations. The LSTM can take advantage of the spatial information from neighboring wells to improve the gap-filling accuracy, especially for long gaps in system states that vary at subdaily scales. While LSTM models require substantial training data and have limited extrapolation power beyond the conditions represented in the training data, they afford great flexibility to account for the spatial correlations, temporal correlations, and nonlinearity in data without a priori assumptions. Thus, LSTMs provide effective alternatives to fill in data gaps in spatially distributed time-series observations characterized by multiple dominant frequencies of variability, which are essential for advancing our understanding of dynamic complex systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy

Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and correction of temporal and spatial distortions in scanning transmission electron microscopy

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has become the technique of choice for quantitative characterization of atomic structure of materials, where the minute displacements of atomic columns from high-symmetry positions can be used to map strain, polarization, octahedra tilts, and other physical and chemical order parameter fields. The latter can be used as inputs into mesoscopic and atomistic models, providing insight into the correlative relationships and generative physics of materials on the atomic level. However, these quantitative applications of STEM necessitate understanding the microscope induced image distortions and developing the pathways to compensate them both as part of a rapid calibration procedure for in situ imaging, and the post-experimental data analysis stage. Here, we explore the spatiotemporal structure of the microscopic distortions in STEM using multivariate analysis of the atomic trajectories in the image stacks. Based on the behavior of principal component analysis (PCA), we develop the Gaussian process (GP)-based regression method for quantification of the distortion function. The limitations of such an approach and possible strategies for implementation as a part of in-line data acquisition in STEM are discussed. Here, the analysis workflow is summarized in a Jupyter notebook that can be used to retrace the analysis and analyze the reader's data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking Spatiotemporal Electric Potential in Batteries Using High-Resolution Operando X‑ray Transmission Imaging

The formation of significant concentration gradients across electrolytes in batteries affects the rate at which electrochemical reactions occur. In this work, we use high-resolution operando X-ray transmission imaging to capture spatiotemporal salt concentration profiles c(x,t) in a symmetric cell comprising a polymer electrolyte sandwiched between two lithium–indium alloy electrodes during a constant-current experiment followed by open-circuit relaxation. The decay of open-circuit potential is related to the concentration dependence of the potential across concentration cells, U. We show how operando c(x,t) data can be used to calculate the spatiotemporal electric potential “inside” the polarized electrolyte. We track the spatial- and time-dependent cell potential during the constant-current step and distinguish its two contributions: a concentration overpotential governed by U. and an ohmic contribution governed by ionic conductivity. Over most of the time window, the concentration overpotential dominates. At steady state, it is a factor of 7 larger than the ohmic contribution. Such findings indicate that efforts to design new polymer electrolytes should focus on minimizing concentration gradients.

Electrical conductivity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleoclimate reconstructions – Testing the exchangeability of two ensembles of spatial processes

Climate field reconstructions (CFR) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data Assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new means of deriving CFRs that optimally fuse climate proxies with climate model output. Despite the growing application of DA-based CFRs, little is understood about how much the assimilated proxies change the statistical properties of the climate model data. To address this question, we propose a robust and computationally efficient method, based on functional data depth, to evaluate differences in the distributions of two spatiotemporal processes. In this study, we apply our test to study global and regional proxy influence in DA-based CFRs by comparing the background and analysis states, which are treated as two samples of spatiotemporal fields. We find that the analysis states are significantly altered from the climate-model-based background states due to the assimilation of proxies. Moreover, the difference between the analysis and background states increases with the number of proxies, even in regions far beyond proxy collection sites. Our approach allows us to characterize the added value of proxies, indicating where and when the analysis states are distinct from the background states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Emissions Accounting Methods Can Determine Whether Direct Air Capture with Storage Achieves Net Removal

The voluntary carbon market within the United States has expanded rapidly in recent years and enabled private companies and other organizations to provide revenue streams to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For a CDR technology to participate in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), the emissions associated with constructing and operating the technology must be less than the CO 2 captured from the atmosphere. Assessing the extent to which this is true for direct air capture with storage (DACS), a relatively energy-intensive CDR technology, strongly depends on the accounting method used to assess the emissions intensity of purchased energy. We simulate the hourly weather-dependent operation of sorbent- and solvent-based DACS in California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wyoming, representing a wide range of local weather and electric and natural gas grid compositions. In all cases, the single most important emissions accounting decision is the method used to estimate the emissions intensity of purchased grid electricity, which varies the calculated net removal by −1049% to +108%. All other factors influencing net removal introduce a variation of at most ±14%. No electricity emissions accounting method is universally conservative across all scenarios, and none is objectively more accurate. High-spatiotemporal-resolution, high-quality, publicly available data sets and models for electricity emissions accounting do not currently exist and are urgently needed to enable standardization of emissions accounting methods to more accurately determine the true emissions impacts of DACS and other energy-intensive facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PubDAS: A PUBlic Distributed Acoustic Sensing Datasets Repository for Geosciences

During the past few years, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has become an invaluable tool for recording high-fidelity seismic wavefields with great spatiotemporal resolutions. However, the considerable amount of data generated during DAS experiments limits their distribution with the broader scientific community. Such a bottleneck inherently slows down the pursuit of new scientific discoveries in geosciences. Here, we introduce PubDAS—the first large-scale open-source repository where several DAS datasets from multiple experiments are publicly shared. PubDAS currently hosts eight datasets covering a variety of geological settings (e.g., urban centers, underground mines, and seafloor), spanning from several days to several years, offering both continuous and triggered active source recordings, and totaling up to ~90 TB of data. Here this article describes these datasets, their metadata, and how to access and download them. Some of these datasets have only been shallowly explored, leaving the door open for new discoveries in Earth sciences and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Lagrangian analysis of pockets of open cells over the southeastern Pacific

Abstract. Pockets of open cells (POCs) have been shown to develop within closed-cell stratocumulus (StCu), and a large body of evidence suggests that the development of POCs result from changes in small-scale processes internal to the boundary layer rather than large-scale forcings. Precipitation is widely viewed as a key process important to POC development and maintenance. In this study, GOES-16 satellite observations are used in conjunction with MERRA-2 winds to track and compare the microphysical and environmental evolution of two populations of closed-cell StCu selected by visual inspection over the southeastern Pacific Ocean: one group that transitions to POCs and another comparison group (CLOSED) that does not. The high spatiotemporal resolution of the new GOES-16 data allows for a detailed examination of the temporal evolution of POCs in this region. We find that POCs tend to develop near the coast, last tens of hours, are larger than 104 km2, and often (88 % of cases) do not re-close before they exit the StCu deck. Most POCs are observed to form at night and tend to exit the StCu during the day when the StCu is contracting in area. Relative to the CLOSED trajectories, POCs have systematically larger effective radii, lower cloud drop number concentrations, a comparable conditional in-cloud liquid water path, and a higher frequency of more intense precipitation. Meanwhile, no systematic environmental differences other than boundary layer height are observed between POC and CLOSED trajectories. Interestingly, there are no differences in reanalysis aerosol optical depth between both sets of trajectories, which may lead one to the interpretation that differences in aerosol concentrations are not influencing POC development or resulting in a large number that re-close. However, this largely depends on the reanalysis treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions, and the product used in this study has no explicit handling of these important processes. These results support the consensus view regarding the importance of precipitation on the formation and maintenance of POCs and demonstrate the utility of modern geostationary remote sensing data in evaluating the POC life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experiment Based Superposition Thermal Modeling of Laser Powder Bed Fusion

This paper evaluates experiment-based superposition thermal modeling for Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) with a pulsed laser. An analytical pulsed laser thermal model establishes the modeling procedure. The framework inverts a powder bed’s single pulse temperature response from experimental spatiotemporal Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) camera data. Superimposing this response along a scan path simulates multi-pulse LPBF. Results show the experimentally informed superposition model rapidly and accurately predicts a layer’s temperature history. The model has applications in correction of thermally driven LPBF errors and in-situ part qualification.

Lough, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2021

A high-resolution unified observational data product of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004–2017

Deep convection possesses markedly distinct properties at different spatiotemporal scales. We present an original high-resolution (4 km, hourly) unified data product of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains and examine their climatological characteristics from 2004 to 2017. The data product is produced by applying an updated Flexible Object Tracker algorithm to hourly satellite brightness temperature, radar reflectivity, and precipitation datasets. Analysis of the data product shows that MCSs are much larger and longer-lasting than IDC, but IDC occurs about 100 times more frequently than MCSs, with a mean convective intensity comparable to that of MCSs. Hence both MCS and IDC are essential contributors to precipitation east of the Rocky Mountains, although their precipitation shows significantly different spatiotemporal characteristics. IDC precipitation concentrates in summer in the Southeast with a peak in the late afternoon, while MCS precipitation is significant in all seasons, especially for spring and summer in the Great Plains. The spatial distribution of MCS precipitation amounts varies by season, while diurnally, MCS precipitation generally peaks during nighttime except in the Southeast. Potential uncertainties and limitations of the data product are also discussed. The data product is useful for investigating the atmospheric environments and physical processes associated with different types of convective systems; quantifying the impacts of convection on hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and severe weather events; and evaluating and improving the representation of convective processes in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ORT: a workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Abstract Motivation Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As ‘omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results We propose a workflow (‘Omics to Reactive Transport—ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBase and PFLOTRAN. Availability and implementation Interactive models available at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/. Microbiological data available at NCBI via BioProject ID PRJNA576070. ORT Python code available at https://github.com/subsurfaceinsights/ort-kbase-to-pflotran. KBase narrative available at https://narrative.kbase.us/narrative/71260 or static narrative (no login required) at https://kbase.us/n/71260/258. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Agenda for Multimodal Foundation Models for Earth Observation

Archives of remote sensing (RS) data are increasing swiftly as new sensing modalities with enhanced spatiotemporal resolution become operational. While promising new breakthroughs, the sheer volume of RS archives stretches the limits of human analysts and existing AI tools, as most models are: i) limited to single data modalities; ii) task-specific; iii) heavily reliant on labeled data. The emerging Foundation Models (FMs) have the potential to address these limitations. Trained on vast unlabeled datasets through self-supervised learning, FMs enable generic feature extraction that facilitate specialization to a wide variety of downstream tasks. This paper describes a vision towards an FM for multimodal Earth Observation data (FM4EO), discussing key building blocks and open challenges. We put particular emphasis on multimodal reasoning, a topic underexplored in EO. Our ultimate goal is a practical path toward FM4EO with capacity to unlock breakthroughs in few-shot learning scenarios, multimodal geographic knowledge integration, synthesis, and hypothesis generation.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗