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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Modeling Multi-View Impedance-Based Cross-Geometry SOH Estimator for Li-ion Batteries

Abstract: Accurately estimating battery’s State of Health (SOH) remains challenging when models must generalize across cell designs and operating conditions. Most Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS)-based approaches either (i) hand-engineer a few Nyquist-plot features for shallow models—fast but does not generalize across geometries—or (ii) learn directly from Nyquist plots with deep networks, which removes manual feature extraction, yet still limited to a single plot type. As a result, cross-geometry robustness and deployability on constrained Internet of Things (IoT) devices remain open problems. We propose a compact Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) (∼ 10k parameters) that takes multi-representation EIS inputs—Nyquist (real/imaginary) and phase–magnitude (|Z|/ϕ) stacked as four channels, so the model can learn complementary degradation signatures while remaining small enough for fast inference. We build a dataset from cyclic aging of two geometries (LG INR18650MJ1 cylindrical cells and LIR2032 coin cells), acquire EIS every ten cycles from 10 kHz to 10 mHz (10 points/decade), and evaluate with leave-one-cell-out testing strategy. We further study fusion vs. single-representation inputs and assess feasibility for on-device deployment (e.g., NVIDIA Jetson device). The results show that training on multiple EIS representations improves SOH estimation accuracy and cross-geometry generalization compared to single-representation models, which uses only Nyquist or phase–magnitude plots. This design targets accurate, generalizable SOH prediction without manual feature engineering while enabling practical real-time use.

Bakr, Ahmed [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Compositionally Complex Spinel Oxides as Conversion Anodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Four different compositionally complex multicomponent M 3 O 4 spinels containing 5–8 distinct metals were prepared by a rapid combustion synthesis method or solvothermal synthesis. High resolution synchrotron X-ray diffraction patterns show that the materials consist primarily of spinel phases with small amounts of rock salt impurities, and, in several samples, a minor amount of contracted spinel phase. Materials were investigated as conversion anodes in lithium half-cells and delivered significantly higher capacities than two-component MgFe 2 O 4 made by combustion synthesis. X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) was used to estimate the oxidation states of the metals in the pristine, lithiated (discharged) and delithiated (charged) materials to better understand the redox processes in half cells that led to the improvement. Co, Ni, and Zn are reduced to low oxidation states during lithiation (cell discharge) but are only partially oxidized. The presence of a conductive metallic network that forms after lithiation is thought to account for the improved electrochemical characteristics. Interestingly, in most of the samples, iron is not fully reduced during initial lithiation unlike what happens with a set of related high entropy spinel ferrites studied previously. Finally, the improved electrochemical properties of these materials illustrates both the advantages of complexity and the difficulties in predicting their behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines

The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.

advanced gate drivers↗

A road map to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics: III. Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data

Context. Third-order lensing statistics contain a wealth of cosmological information that is not captured by second-order statistics. However, the computational effort it takes to estimate such statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys is prohibitively expensive. Aims. We derive and validate an efficient estimation procedure for the three-point correlation function (3PCF) of polar fields such as weak lensing shear. We then use our approach to measure the shear 3PCF and the third-order aperture mass statistics on the KiDS-1000 survey. Methods We constructed an efficient estimator for third-order shear statistics that builds on the multipole decomposition of the 3PCF. We then validated our estimator on mock ellipticity catalogs obtained from N -body simulations. Finally, we applied our estimator to the KiDS-1000 data and presented a measurement of the third-order aperture statistics in a tomographic setup. Results. Our estimator provides a speedup of a factor of ∼100–1000 compared to the state-of-the-art estimation procedures. It is also able to provide accurate measurements for squeezed and folded triangle configurations without additional computational effort. We report a significant detection of tomographic third-order aperture mass statistics in the KiDS-1000 data (S/N = 6.69). Conclusions. Our estimator will make it computationally feasible to measure third-order shear statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys. Furthermore, it can be used to construct empirical covariance matrices for such statistics.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

State-of-Charge Investigation of Lithium Manganese Dioxide Primary Batteries Utilizing X-ray Computed Tomography

Lithium primary batteries (LPBs) represent a class of energy storage devices, uniquely suited for mission-critical applications including emergency backup power, aerospace and defense electronics, implantable medical devices, and remote sensing. Despite their technological maturity and distinct advantages over rechargeable lithium-ion batteries (i.e., superior shelf life and operational simplicity), state-of-charge (SoC) estimation in these batteries remains a persistent challenge due to the lack of a reliable, quantifiable diagnostic technique. In this work, we investigate X-ray computed tomography (X-CT) as a transformative and accurate SoC estimation technique for LPBs. Results gained through X-CT measurements reveal systematic, quantifiable structural changes in cathode morphology and geometry during discharge, establishing a direct structural basis for SoC estimation, with a maximum relative standard deviation of 2.3%. This work establishes a pathway toward operando, imaging-driven SoC diagnostics that can significantly enhance the reliability of SoC estimation in LPBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Toward scalable quantum computations of atomic nuclei

We solve the nuclear two-body and three-body bound states via quantum simulations of pionless effective field theory on a lattice in position space. While the employed lattice remains small, the usage of local Hamiltonians including two- and three-body forces ensures that the number of Pauli terms scales linearly with increasing numbers of lattice sites. We use an adaptive ansatz grown from unitary coupled cluster theory to parametrize the ground states of the deuteron and 3 He, compute their corresponding energies, and analyze the scaling of the required computational resources. Our quantum simulations reproduce exact benchmarks for 2 H and 3 He within 100 keV, requiring at most 30 layers in the ansatz and thus resulting in modest circuit depths. Additionally, we find the number of shots required to reach a given precision scales linearly in the lattice size and more mildly in the system size. Furthermore, based on the agreement with exact benchmarks and mild scaling, we conclude that this can be an efficient, scalable approach for quantum computations of nuclear ground states, particularly to prepare initial states for quantum phase estimation or other filtering algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vulnerability of Wetlands Due to Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Plains of the South and Southeast United States

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, yet knowledge about their extent and distribution is often limited. We developed a land cover classification of wetlands in the coastal plains of the southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using 6161 very-high (2 m per pixel) resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images from 2012 to 2015. Area extent estimations were obtained for the following vegetated classes: marsh, scrub, grass, forested upland, and forested wetland, located in elevation brackets between 0 and 10 m above sea level at 0.1 m intervals. Sea-level trends were estimated for each coastal state using tide gauge data collected over the period 1983–2021 and projected for 2100 using the trend estimated over that period. These trends were considered conservative, as sea level rise in the region accelerated between 2010 and 2021. Estimated losses in vegetation area due to sea level rise by 2100 are projected to be at least 12,587 km 2 , of which 3224 km 2 would be coastal wetlands. Louisiana is expected to suffer the largest losses in vegetation (80%) and coastal wetlands (75%) by 2100. Such high-resolution coastal mapping products help to guide adaptation plans in the region, including planning for wetland conservation and coastal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Confocal Raman Microscopy as an In Situ Probe of Volume Change in Hydration-Sensitive Polymer Membranes

An approach is described for measuring hydration-induced volume change within ion conductive polymer membranes and thin films by adapting the technique of confocal Raman microscopy. With careful consideration of factors that affect excitation and scattering within the confocal probe volume region, material swelling and deswelling were estimated from the intensities of polymer matrix spectral features. A high numerical aperture oil-immersion objective was used to achieve tight focusing within samples and the efficient collection of Raman scattered light. The approach is demonstrated for a fluorinated cation-exchange ionomer (Nafion) and the hydrocarbon anion-exchange ionomer Sustainion. Samples were monitored while under a nitrogen atmosphere that was cycled between dry and humid (∼50% relative humidity, RH) states. The volume changes estimated from the Raman spectra were in close agreement with those derived from conventional measurements. The reported work advances understanding needed to adapt confocal Raman microscopy for quantitative in situ and operando studies of ionomers within electrochemical devices, such as polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells and electrolyzers, and lays a foundation for broader applications in the study of hydration-induced polymer swelling and the associated molecular level water and polymer framework structural changes.

Absorption↗

Universality of Rényi Entropy in Conformal Field Theory

We use the thermal effective theory to prove that, for the vacuum state in any conformal field theory in 𝑑 dimensions, the 𝑛th Rényi entropy 𝑆$^{(𝑛)}_{𝐴}$ behaves as 𝑆$^{(𝑛)}_{𝐴}$ = [𝑓⁡/(2⁢𝜋⁢𝑛) 𝑑−1 ]⁢[Area⁡(∂𝐴)/(𝑑−2)⁢𝜀 𝑑−2 ]⁢(1+𝑂⁡(𝑛)) in the 𝑛 → 0 limit when the boundary of the entanglement domain 𝐴 is spherical with the UV cutoff 𝜀. The theory dependence is encapsulated in the cosmological constant 𝑓 in the thermal effective action. Using this result, we estimate the density of states for large eigenvalues of the modular Hamiltonian for the domain 𝐴. In two dimensions, we can use the hot spot idea, which describes the effective action in the high-temperature limit when the temperature is position-dependent, to derive more powerful formulas valid for arbitrary positive 𝑛. We discuss the difference between two and higher dimensions and clarify the applicability of the hot spot idea. We also use the thermal effective theory to derive an analog of the Cardy formula for boundary operators in higher dimensions.

Conformal field theory↗

Kinetics vs Thermodynamics: Engineering Photoredox Reactivity from an Upper Excited State of Fe II

Ultrafast deactivation of metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) states into low-lying metal-centered states has long limited the utility of first-row transition-metal complexes in a broad range of applications, including photoredox catalysis. Here we bypass such limitations using a Fe II -pyridinium carbene complex to enable electron transfer reactivity directly from a higher-lying MLCT state. Time-resolved spectroscopic data revealed that the higher-energy MLCT manifold relaxes to lower-lying metal-centered states with a time constant of ca. 3 ps. The nature of the metal-centered (MC) excited state as a 3 MC (i.e., S = 1) was inferred from variable-temperature transient absorption studies. These experiments also revealed that the ground-state recovery process occurs at or very near the “Marcus barrierless regime”, thereby allowing for an estimate of its excited-state redox potential. The detailed picture of the energetics of this compound that emerged enabled fine-tuning of competing thermodynamic and kinetic pathways to effect electron transfer from the higher-energy MLCT excited state prior to relaxation to the ligand-field manifold. We believe these results open an unexplored landscape for the use of earth-abundant first-row transition-metal-based chromophores for applications in light-to-chemical energy conversion.

charge transfer↗

2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2024 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2024 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "Transportation ATB Website" resource below for more project information.

2024↗

Annual Technology Baseline (ATB): The 2024 Transportation Update

The Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates for vehicle technologies as well as fuels, and it details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2024 update added more biofuels pathways to align with pathways used in the Biomass Scenario Model.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗

Field-scale mapping of California crop water productivity to inform water management in critically overdrafted groundwater basins

Crop water productivity (CWP) metrics can reveal how the dynamics of crop production and water use change across space and time. We use field-scale satellite inputs from 2016–2021 to estimate potential water savings for four crops (almonds, grapes, walnuts, and citrus—which collectively account for approximately one-third of California’s cropland area), within critically overdrafted groundwater sub-basins of California’s San Joaquin Valley. These annual estimates of field-level water savings potential are based on locally achievable CWP values for each crop type. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in CWP and potential water savings within each sub-basin. We find that increasing CWP to peak efficiency (defined as improving fields to the 95th percentile of observed CWP) for four crops could meet up to 36% of the estimated annual overdraft in San Joaquin Valley. For comparison, fallowing 5% of the four crop type fields in the same study area could potentially reduce annual overdraft by 11%. By delivering results at the field scale, our work can inform targeted interventions by irrigation district managers and more efficient allocation of state incentives for improved water management. For example, we estimate that state grant funding for water efficiency upgrades could have amplified potential water savings threefold by targeting investments to the least efficient fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tuning Shinkarev’s Bicycle: Separating the Parallel Cycles of Photosystem II Using Empirical Wavelet Transform

The oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) of Photosystem II (PSII) catalyzes light-driven water oxidation, a process necessary to sustain Earth’s atmospheric oxygen. Oxygen yields measured during single-turnover flash sequences exhibit period-four oscillations, which form the basis of the Joliot–Kok (S-state) model. However, when the oscillations of other processes contribute to the measured oxygen yield, fitting methods can conflate these signals and distort estimates of inefficiencies and initial S-state populations. To address this, we applied the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) as a model-independent method to separate overlapping oscillators and capture damping dynamics that are not well represented in Fourier analysis. We tested this framework on polarographic flash-oxygen traces from both our Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 thylakoid membrane preparations and archival datasets on Chlorella and isolated chloroplasts. EWT consistently resolves the expected period-four component alongside a distinct binary oscillation. Simulations suggest that fitting this isolated period-four signal recovers VZAD parameters more accurately than analysis of raw traces, yielding different estimates for S-state distributions and transition probabilities. Notably, this binary oscillation aligns closely with semiquinone dynamics predicted solely from period-four fit parameters. These findings indicate that EWT can effectively distinguish complex signals in oxygen evolution, offering a framework potentially applicable to other spectroscopic probes of the S-state cycle.

Ferrari, Nicholas [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗