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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative differentiation of benign and misfolded glaucoma-causing myocilin variants on the basis of protein thermal stability

Accurate predictions of the pathogenicity of mutations associated with genetic diseases are key to the success of precision medicine. Inherited missense mutations in the myocilin (MYOC) gene, within its olfactomedin (OLF) domain, constitute the strongest genetic link to primary open-angle glaucoma via a toxic gain of function, and thus MYOC is an attractive precision-medicine target. However, not all mutations in MYOC cause glaucoma, and common variants are expected to be neutral polymorphisms. The Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD) lists ~100 missense variants documented within OLF, all of which are relatively rare (allele frequency <0.001%) and nearly all are of unknown pathogenicity. To distinguish disease-causing OLF variants from benign OLF variants, we first characterized the most prevalent population-based variants using a suite of cellular and biophysical assays, and identified two variants with features of aggregation-prone familial disease variants. Next, we considered all available biochemical and clinical data to demonstrate that pathogenic and benign variants can be differentiated statistically based on a single metric: the thermal stability of OLF. Our results motivate genotyping MYOC in patients for clinical monitoring of this widespread, painless and irreversible ocular disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Results of the Direct Numerical Simulation of Transient Flows

This report presents the first direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transient mixed convection in an idealized downcomer-like channel (Challenge Problem 1, Phase II). Using the GPU-accelerated NekRS solver, we modeled a sudden decay in driving pressure, mimicking loss-of-flow events, and tracked the resulting evolution of Reynolds number, boundary-layer structure, turbulence statistics, and heat-transfer metrics. Key findings include the systematic thickening and eventual asymmetry of velocity and thermal boundary layers under buoyant deceleration; minimal “memory” lag in Reynolds shear stress and TKE profiles when sampled at matching Re, yet clear shifts of peak locations toward the cooled wall; overshoots in transient eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity (and corresponding sub-unity turbulent Prandtl numbers) on the cooled side; and a pronounced transient Nusselt-number enhancement driven by wall-temperature inertia and residual eddy mixing. These effects combined to offer a temporary cooling margin above steady-state predictions during reactor LOF transients. Future work will extend this work to a more complex “Case II” geometry (90° turn + lower plenum) and generate multi-Re/Pr datasets for data-driven turbulence closures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Metric analysis and data validation across FORTRAN projects

The desire to predict the effort in developing or explaining the quality of software has led to the proposal of several metrics. As a step toward validating these metrics, the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) has analyzed the software science metrics, cyclomatic complexity, and various standard program measures for their relation to effort (including design through acceptance testing), development errors (both discrete and weighted according to the amount of time to locate and fix), and one another. The data investigated are collected from a project FORTRAN environment and examined across several projects at once, within individual projects and by reporting accuracy checks demonstrating the need to validate a database. When the data comes from individual programmers or certain validated projects, the metrics' correlations with actual effort seem to be strongest. For modules developed entirely by individual programmers, the validity ratios induce a statistically significant ordering of several of the metrics' correlations. When comparing the strongest correlations, neither software science's E metric cyclomatic complexity not source lines of code appears to relate convincingly better with effort than the others.

Basili, Victor R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regression Model Term Selection for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

The paper discusses the selection of regression model terms for the analysis of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. Different function class combinations are presented that may be used to analyze calibration data using either a non-iterative or an iterative method. The role of the intercept term in a regression model of calibration data is reviewed. In addition, useful algorithms and metrics originating from linear algebra and statistics are recommended that will help an analyst (i) to identify and avoid both linear and near-linear dependencies between regression model terms and (ii) to make sure that the selected regression model of the calibration data uses only statistically significant terms. Three different tests are suggested that may be used to objectively assess the predictive capability of the final regression model of the calibration data. These tests use both the original data points and regression model independent confirmation points. Finally, data from a simplified manual calibration of the Ames MK40 balance is used to illustrate the application of some of the metrics and tests to a realistic calibration data set.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred↗
DOE OSTI2026

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Risk Priority Measure for the Management of Project Risk

Monte Carlo-based project risk models are essential tools in project risk management, particularly for large, complex projects in which it is difficult to glean intuitively the importance of individual risks to the overall project. Conventional correlation-based methods for measuring the importance of contributing risks in such models are argued here to be both statistically flawed and unintuitive in the importance metrics they produce. Drawing on and adapting methods more traditionally associated with engineering risk models, Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) is introduced as an importance measure. RRW is shown to be statistically robust and provide an easily interpretable, quantitative measure of the importance of a risk to the overall performance of a project; specifically, measuring the extent to which removal of a risk would improve confidence in project outcomes. To ensure practicality of the method, an approach is described in which RRWs can be produced for all contributing risks based on a single Monte Carlo sample. This is demonstrated through application to a large, complex project risk model from which intuitive risk importance insights provide a robust, transparent basis for the allocation of risk management resources.

Risk↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing and applying quantifiable metrics for diagnostic and experiment design on Z

This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2017

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The goal of the process is to characterize the filter performance in the metric of covariance realism. The Chi-squared statistic is the value calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance. The process of tuning an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types, and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-squared statistic, calculated from EKF solutions, are assessed.

Filter Tuning↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using Trajectory Smoothness Metrics to Identify Drones in Radar Track Data

The identification of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) using trajectory data is considered. Specifically, a number of smoothness metrics are proposed, which can be used to distinguish UAS from other aerial objects even when they are engaged in accelerative maneuvers (non-constant-velocity flight). The metrics are evaluated on a data set from a UAS sense-and-avoid field test, which contains track data of aerial objects recorded by a vehicle-board radar system during a flight test. The metrics are found to effectively differentiate UAS from other objects such as birds for this data set. In addition, an initial statistical performance analysis of one of the smoothness metrics is undertaken, using 15 data sets deriving from multiple flight tests. The smoothness metric is shown to identify the target UAS with 95% accuracy (95% true positive rate), while achieving a false positive rate of less than 9%.

Sandip Roy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deuterium scattering experiments in CTEQ global QCD analyses: a comparative investigation

Abstract Experimental measurements in deep-inelastic scattering and lepton-pair production on deuterium targets play an important role in the flavor separation of u and d (anti)quarks in global QCD analyses of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the nucleon. We investigate the impact of theoretical corrections accounting for the light-nuclear structure of the deuteron upon the fitted u , d -quark, gluon, and other PDFs in the CJ15 and CT18 families of next-to-leading order CTEQ global analyses. The investigation is done using the $$L_2$$ L 2 sensitivity statistical method, which provides a common metric to quantify the strength of experimental constraints on various PDFs and ratios of PDFs in the two distinct fitting frameworks. Using the $$L_2$$ L 2 sensitivity and other approaches, we examine the compatibility of deuteron data sets with other fitted experiments under varied implementations of the deuteron corrections. We find that freely-fitted deuteron corrections modify the PDF uncertainty at large momentum fractions and will be relevant for future PDFs affecting electroweak precision measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

STAT_UQ_AI

Code to reproduce results in "Statistical Uncertainty Quantification for Aggregate Performance Metrics in Machine Learning Benchmarks".

Gopalan, Giri↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2004

The coverage of elliptical orbits using Ergodic theory

One of the key performance metrics for satellite constellations is the statistics of the visibility periods between the satellites and poins on the ground. Associated with this are other desirable communications statistis such as data through-put, link qualities, etc. Typically, the computation of coverage statistics requires the propagation of the trajectories. In this paper a new algorithm using differential geometry enables us to extend the Ergodic theory to eliptical orbits.

Lo, Martin W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Parametric Studies of Flow Separation using Air Injection

Boundary Layer separation causes the airfoil to stall and therefore imposes dramatic performance degradation on the airfoil. In recent years, flow separation control has been one of the active research areas in the field of aerodynamics due to its promising performance improvements on the lifting device. These active flow separation control techniques include steady and unsteady air injection as well as suction on the airfoil surface etc. This paper will be focusing on the steady and unsteady air injection on the airfoil. Although wind tunnel experiments revealed that the performance improvements on the airfoil using injection techniques, the details of how the key variables such as air injection slot geometry and air injection angle etc impact the effectiveness of flow separation control via air injection has not been studied. A parametric study of both steady and unsteady air injection active flow control will be the main objective for this summer. For steady injection, the key variables include the slot geometry, orientation, spacing, air injection velocity as well as the injection angle. For unsteady injection, the injection frequency will also be investigated. Key metrics such as lift coefficient, drag coefficient, total pressure loss and total injection mass will be used to measure the effectiveness of the control technique. A design of experiments using the Box-Behnken Design is set up in order to determine how each of the variables affects each of the key metrics. Design of experiment is used so that the number of experimental runs will be at minimum and still be able to predict which variables are the key contributors to the responses. The experiments will then be conducted in the 1ft by 1ft wind tunnel according to the design of experiment settings. The data obtained from the experiments will be imported into JMP, statistical software, to generate sets of response surface equations which represent the statistical empirical model for each of the metrics as a function of the key variables. Next, the variables such as the slot geometry can be optimized using the build-in optimizer within JMP. Finally, a wind tunnel testing will be conducted using the optimized slot geometry and other key variables to verify the empirical statistical model. The long term goal for this effort is to assess the impacts of active flow control using air injection at system level as one of the task plan included in the NASAs URETI program with Georgia Institute of Technology.

Zhang, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Square Root Statistics of Density Matrices and Their Applications

To estimate the degree of quantum entanglement of random pure states, it is crucial to understand the statistical behavior of entanglement indicators such as the von Neumann entropy, quantum purity, and entanglement capacity. These entanglement metrics are functions of the spectrum of density matrices, and their statistical behavior over different generic state ensembles have been intensively studied in the literature. As an alternative metric, in this work, we study the sum of the square root spectrum of density matrices, which is relevant to negativity and fidelity in quantum information processing. In particular, we derive the finite-size mean and variance formulas of the sum of the square root spectrum over the Bures–Hall ensemble, extending known results obtained recently over the Hilbert–Schmidt ensemble.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Debris Disk Results from the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey's Polarimetric Imaging Campaign

We report the results of a ∼4 yr direct imaging survey of 104 stars to resolve and characterize circumstellar debris disks in scattered light as part of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) Exoplanet Survey. We targeted nearby (≲150 pc), young (≲500 Myr) stars with high infrared (IR) excesses (L {sub IR}/L {sub ⋆} > 10{sup −5}), including 38 with previously resolved disks. Observations were made using the GPI high-contrast integral field spectrograph in H-band (1.6 μm) coronagraphic polarimetry mode to measure both polarized and total intensities. We resolved 26 debris disks and 3 protoplanetary/transitional disks. Seven debris disks were resolved in scattered light for the first time, including newly presented HD 117214 and HD 156623, and we quantified basic morphologies of five of them using radiative transfer models. All of our detected debris disks except HD 156623 have dust-poor inner holes, and their scattered-light radii are generally larger than corresponding radii measured from resolved thermal emission and those inferred from spectral energy distributions. To assess sensitivity, we report contrasts and consider causes of nondetections. Detections were strongly correlated with high IR excess and high inclination, although polarimetry outperformed total intensity angular differential imaging for detecting low-inclination disks (≲70°). Based on postsurvey statistics, we improved upon our presurvey target prioritization metric predicting polarimetric disk detectability. We also examined scattered-light disks in the contexts of gas, far-IR, and millimeter detections. Comparing H-band and ALMA fluxes for two disks revealed tentative evidence for differing grain properties. Finally, we found no preference for debris disks to be detected in scattered light if wide-separation substellar companions were present.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗