Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “statistical selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

From H i to stars: H I depletion in starbursts and star-forming galaxies in the ALFALFA Hα survey

H i in galaxies traces the fuel for future star formation and reveals the effects of feedback on neutral gas. Using a statistically uniform, H i-selected sample of 565 galaxies from the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA (ALFALFA) Hα survey, we explore H i properties as a function of star formation activity. ALFALFA Hα provides R-band and Hα imaging for a volume-limited subset of the 21 cm ALFALFA survey. We identify eight starbursts based on Hα equivalent width and six with enhanced star formation relative to the main sequence. Both starbursts and non-starbursts have similar H i-to-stellar mass ratios (M{sub H I}/M{sub ∗}), which suggests that feedback is not depleting the starbursts’ H i. Consequently, the starbursts do have shorter H i depletion times (t{sub dep}), implying more efficient H i-to-H{sub 2} conversion. While major mergers likely drive this enhanced efficiency in some starbursts, the lowest-mass starbursts may experience periodic bursts, consistent with enhanced scatter in t{sub dep} at low M{sub ∗}. Two starbursts appear to be pre-coalescence mergers; their elevated M{sub H I}/M{sub ∗} suggest that H i-to-H{sub 2} conversion is still ongoing at this stage. By comparing with the GASS sample, we find that t{sub dep} anticorrelates with stellar surface density for disks, while spheroids show no such trend. Among early-type galaxies, t{sub dep} does not correlate with bulge-to-disk ratio; instead, the gas distribution may determine the star formation efficiency. Finally, the weak connection between galaxies’ specific star formation rates and M{sub H I}/M{sub ∗} contrasts with the well-known correlation between M{sub H I}/M{sub ∗} and color. We show that dust extinction can explain the H i–color trend, which may arise from the relationship between M{sub ∗}, M{sub H I}, and metallicity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STAR CLUSTER DISRUPTION IN THE STARBURST GALAXY MESSIER 82

Using high-resolution, multiple-passband Hubble Space Telescope images spanning the entire optical/near-infrared wavelength range, we obtained a statistically complete U-band-selected sample of 846 extended star clusters across the disk of the nearby starburst galaxy M82. Based on a careful analysis of the clusters' spectral energy distributions, we determined their galaxy-wide age and mass distributions. The M82 clusters exhibit three clear peaks in their age distribution, thus defining relatively young, log (t yr{sup –1}) ≤ 7.5, intermediate-age, log (t yr{sup –1}) in [7.5, 8.5], and old samples, log (t yr{sup –1}) ≥ 8.5. Comparison of the completeness-corrected mass distributions offers a firm handle on the galaxy's star cluster disruption history. The most massive star clusters in the young and old samples are (almost) all concentrated in the most densely populated central region, while the intermediate-age sample's most massive clusters are more spatially dispersed, which may reflect the distribution of the highest-density gas throughout the galaxy's evolutionary history, combined with the solid-body nature of the galaxy's central region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Light potentials of photosynthetic energy storage in the field: what limits the ability to use or dissipate rapidly increased light energy?

The responses of plant photosynthesis to rapid fluctuations in environmental conditions are critical for efficient conversion of light energy. These responses are not well-seen laboratory conditions and are difficult to probe in field environments. We demonstrate an open science approach to this problem that combines multifaceted measurements of photosynthesis and environmental conditions, and an unsupervised statistical clustering approach. In a selected set of data on mint (Mentha sp.), we show that ‘light potentials’ for linear electron flow and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) upon rapid light increases are strongly suppressed in leaves previously exposed to low ambient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) or low leaf temperatures, factors that can act both independently and cooperatively. Further analyses allowed us to test specific mechanisms. With decreasing leaf temperature or PAR, limitations to photosynthesis during high light fluctuations shifted from rapidly induced NPQ to photosynthetic control of electron flow at the cytochrome b 6 f complex. At low temperatures, high light induced lumen acidification, but did not induce NPQ, leading to accumulation of reduced electron transfer intermediates, probably inducing photodamage, revealing a potential target for improving the efficiency and robustness of photosynthesis. We discuss the implications of the approach for open science efforts to understand and improve crop productivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating event-shape methods in the search for the chiral magnetic effect in relativistic heavy ion collisions

The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is a phenomenon in which electric charge is separated by a strong magnetic field from local domains of chirality imbalance and parity violation in quantum chromodynamics. The CME-sensitive observable, the charge-dependent three-point azimuthal correlator Δ⁢𝛾 , is contaminated by a major physics background proportional to the particle's elliptic flow anisotropy 𝑣 2 . Event-shape engineering (ESE) binning events in dynamical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 and event-shape selection (ESS) binning events in statistical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 are two methods to search for the CME by projecting Δ⁢𝛾 to the measured anisotropy 𝑣 2 = 0 intercept. Here, we conduct a systematic study of these two methods using physics models as well as toy model simulations. It is observed that the ESE method fulfills the general premise of measuring the CME but is statistically hungry. It is found that the intercept from the ESS method depends on the details of the event content, such as the mixtures of background-contributing sources, because of statistical fluctuations of intertwining variables used in the method, and is thus not practically useful to measure the CME.

Relativistic heavy-ion collisions↗

Search for the X(5568) state decaying into $\mathrm{B}^{0}_{\mathrm{s}}\pi^{\pm}$ in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 8 TeV

A search for resonancelike structures in the Bs0π± invariant mass spectrum is performed using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at s=8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb-1. The Bs0 mesons are reconstructed in the decay chain Bs0→J/ψϕ, with J/ψ→μ+μ- and ϕ→K+K-. The Bs0π± invariant mass distribution shows no statistically significant peaks for different selection requirements on the reconstructed Bs0 and π± candidates. Upper limits are set on the relative production rates of the X(5568) and Bs0 states times the branching fraction of the decay X(5568)±→Bs0π±. In addition, upper limits are obtained as a function of the mass and the natural width of possible exotic states decaying into Bs0π±.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design of Experiments, Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

This presentation provides an overview of emulation, calibration and experiment design for computer experiments. Emulation refers to building a statistical surrogate from a carefully selected and limited set of model runs to predict unsampled outputs. The standard kriging approach to emulation of complex computer models is presented. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used to sample the calibrated parameter distribution. Several MCMC algorithms commonly employed in practice are presented, along with a popular diagnostic for evaluating chain behavior. Space-filling approaches to experiment design for selecting model runs to build effective emulators are discussed, including Latin Hypercube Design and extensions based on orthogonal array skeleton designs and imposed symmetry requirements. Optimization criteria that further enforce space-filling, possibly in projections of the input space, are mentioned. Designs to screen for important input variations are summarized and used for variable selection in a nuclear fuels performance application. This is followed by illustration of sequential experiment design strategies for optimization, global prediction, and rare event inference.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Coupling Spatiotemporal Community Assembly Processes to Changes in Microbial Metabolism

Community assembly processes govern shifts in species abundances in response to environmental change, yet our understanding of assembly remains largely decoupled from ecosystem function. Here, we test hypotheses regarding assembly and function across space and time using hyporheic microbial communities as a model system. We pair sampling of two habitat types through hydrologic fluctuation with null modeling and multivariate statistics. We demonstrate that dual selective pressures assimilate to generate compositional changes at distinct timescales among habitat types, resulting in contrasting associations of Betaproteobacteria and Thaumarchaeota with selection and with seasonal changes in aerobic metabolism. Our results culminate in a conceptual model in which selection from contrasting environments regulates taxon abundance and ecosystem function through time, with increases in function when oscillating selection opposes stable selective pressures. Our model is applicable within both macrobial and microbial ecology and presents an avenue for assimilating community assembly processes into predictions of ecosystem function.

aerobic respiration↗

THE SWIFT AGN AND CLUSTER SURVEY. II. CLUSTER CONFIRMATION WITH SDSS DATA

We study 203 (of 442) Swift AGN and Cluster Survey extended X-ray sources located in the SDSS DR8 footprint to search for galaxy over-densities in three-dimensional space using SDSS galaxy photometric redshifts and positions near the Swift cluster candidates. We find 104 Swift clusters with a >3σ galaxy over-density. The remaining targets are potentially located at higher redshifts and require deeper optical follow-up observations for confirmation as galaxy clusters. We present a series of cluster properties including the redshift, brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) magnitude, BCG-to-X-ray center offset, optical richness, and X-ray luminosity. We also detect red sequences in ∼85% of the 104 confirmed clusters. The X-ray luminosity and optical richness for the SDSS confirmed Swift clusters are correlated and follow previously established relations. The distribution of the separations between the X-ray centroids and the most likely BCG is also consistent with expectation. We compare the observed redshift distribution of the sample with a theoretical model, and find that our sample is complete for z ≲ 0.3 and is still 80% complete up to z ≃ 0.4, consistent with the SDSS survey depth. These analysis results suggest that our Swift cluster selection algorithm has yielded a statistically well-defined cluster sample for further study of cluster evolution and cosmology. We also match our SDSS confirmed Swift clusters to existing cluster catalogs, and find 42, 23, and 1 matches in optical, X-ray, and Sunyaev–Zel’dovich catalogs, respectively, and so the majority of these clusters are new detections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A New Measurement of the Spectral Lag of Gamma-Ray Bursts and its Implications for Spectral Evolution Behaviors

We carry out a systematical study of the spectral lag properties of 50 single-pulsed gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor. By dividing the light curves into multiple consecutive energy channels, we provide a new measurement of the spectral lag that is independent of energy channel selections. We perform a detailed statistical study of our new measurements. We find two similar power-law energy dependencies of both the pulse arrival time and pulse width. Our new results on the power-law indices would favor the relativistic geometric effects for the origin of spectral lag. However, a complete theoretical framework that can fully account for the diverse energy dependencies of both arrival time and pulse width revealed in this work is still lacking. We also study the spectral evolution behaviors of the GRB pulses. We find that a GRB pulse with negligible spectral lag would usually have a shorter pulse duration and would appear to have a “hardness-intensity tracking” behavior, and a GRB pulse with a significant spectral lag would usually have a longer pulse duration and would appear to have a “hard-to-soft” behavior.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color–Magnitude Diagram

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

One-to-one aeroservoelastic validation of operational loads and performance of a 2.8 MW wind turbine model in OpenFAST

Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Upper Subcritical Limit Calculations with Correlated Integral Experiments

The American National Standards Institute (ANSI) and American Nuclear Society (ANS) standard for Validation of Neutron Transport Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety Calculations defines the Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) as “a limit on the calculated k effective value established to ensure that conditions calculated to be subcritical will actually be subcritical.” Often, USL calculations are based on statistical techniques that infer information about a nuclear system of interest (application) from a set of known/well characterized similar systems (experiments). In determining a USL, it is common to statistically determine a calculation bias and bias uncertainty. Bias is “the systematic difference between calculated results and experimental data.” The bias uncertainty is “the uncertainty that accounts for the combined effects of uncertainties in the benchmarks, the calculational models of the benchmarks, and the calculational methods.” Both the bias and the bias uncertainty are often inferred through statistical methods applied to the selected set of experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Proper orthogonal decomposition analysis of parallel twin jets measured using particle image velocimetry - 18685

The mixing of turbulent jets has been found in several locations of High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) including upper and lower plenums, where jets impinge into open space from coolant channels. In the present work, a parallel twin jets experimental facility was used to generate velocity field of mixing jets by means of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), which can be eventually used for validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. The facility has two fixed parallel rectangular jet nozzles (5.8 mm in width, 87.8 mm in length) submerged in the middle of the water tank, which allows an assumption of free jet mixing. In order to compare the experimental data produced to existing data, Re = 4000 {approx} 5000 at the jet outlet was selected. In the past, several statistically meaningful data have been reported using Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) and Hot Wire Anemometer (HWA), which can support Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes turbulent models. However, recent CFD simulations using Large Eddy Simulation (LES) require high resolution experimental data in time and space. Thus, in this study, in addition to statistically enough number of data sets for RANS models validation, high temporal and spatial resolution data were collected for the validation of LES calculations. In order to study the turbulent structure Reynolds decomposition and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) were applied to the data obtained. These decomposition analyses visualized multi-scale vortices and the transportation of eddies. In terms of twin jets structure, the present experimental data showed good agreement with other techniques for the important characteristic parameters including the length of the converging region and the location of the merging point. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Model averaging approaches to data subset selection

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models across different subsets of the data. Two different criteria have been proposed in the literature for how the data subsets should be weighted. We compare the two criteria closely in a unified treatment based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and conclude that one of them is subtly flawed and will tend to yield larger uncertainties due to loss of information. Here, analytical and numerical examples are provided.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Functional protein mining with conformal guarantees

Molecular structure prediction and homology detection offer promising paths to discovering protein function and evolutionary relationships. However, current approaches lack statistical reliability assurances, limiting their practical utility for selecting proteins for further experimental and in-silico characterization. To address this challenge, we introduce a statistically principled approach to protein search leveraging principles from conformal prediction, offering a framework that ensures statistical guarantees with user-specified risk and provides calibrated probabilities (rather than raw ML scores) for any protein search model. Our method (1) lets users select many biologically-relevant loss metrics (i.e. false discovery rate) and assigns reliable functional probabilities for annotating genes of unknown function; (2) achieves state-of-the-art performance in enzyme classification without training new models; and (3) robustly and rapidly pre-filters proteins for computationally intensive structural alignment algorithms. Our framework enhances the reliability of protein homology detection and enables the discovery of uncharacterized proteins with likely desirable functional properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Testing for X-Ray–SZ Differences and Redshift Evolution in the X-Ray Morphology of Galaxy Clusters

We present a quantitative study of the X-ray morphology of galaxy clusters, as a function of their detection method and redshift. We analyze two separate samples of galaxy clusters: a sample of 36 clusters at 0.35<z<0.9 selected in the X-ray with the ROSAT PSPC 400 deg{sup 2} survey, and a sample of 90 clusters at 0.25<z<1.2 selected via the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect with the South Pole Telescope. Clusters from both samples have similar-quality Chandra observations, which allow us to quantify their X-ray morphologies via two distinct methods: centroid shifts (w) and photon asymmetry (A{sub phot}). The latter technique provides nearly unbiased morphology estimates for clusters spanning a broad range of redshift and data quality. We further compare the X-ray morphologies of X-ray- and SZ-selected clusters with those of simulated clusters. We do not find a statistically significant difference in the measured X-ray morphology of X-ray and SZ-selected clusters over the redshift range probed by these samples, suggesting that the two are probing similar populations of clusters. We find that the X-ray morphologies of simulated clusters are statistically indistinguishable from those of X-ray- or SZ-selected clusters, implying that the most important physics for dictating the large-scale gas morphology (outside of the core) is well-approximated in these simulations. Finally, we find no statistically significant redshift evolution in the X-ray morphology (both for observed and simulated clusters), over the range of z∼0.3 to z∼1, seemingly in contradiction with the redshift-dependent halo merger rate predicted by simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗